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Thread: How long until we have colonize Mars?

  1. #931
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    And "could increase cancer risks during long duration missions" and "we'll probably die on the way there" are almost exactly the same thing, right?

  2. #932
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    Well, I left out disease, air loss/hull breach, equipment breakdowns, etc.

  3. #933
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Well, I left out disease, air loss/hull breach, equipment breakdowns, etc.
    But you said "unless we block the radiation".
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  4. #934
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    Coronal mass ejections can kill in space. Cosmic rays can produce central nervous system damage. The article was vague and I tend to assume a negative outcome.

    How do you view radiation damage of the sort discussed in the article?

  5. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post

    How do you view radiation damage of the sort discussed in the article?
    I think they're just getting after you because you said "they won't get there alive," which is a bit of an exaggeration, but honestly I don't think it's anything worth getting worked up about. If it was a headline in a newspaper I think it would be worth pointing it out though. But indeed ESA seems to be saying it is a risk that needs to be seriously considered before making a manned trip to Mars.
    As above, so below

  6. #936
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I think they're just getting after you because you said "they won't get there alive," which is a bit of an exaggeration, but honestly I don't think it's anything worth getting worked up about. If it was a headline in a newspaper I think it would be worth pointing it out though. But indeed ESA seems to be saying it is a risk that needs to be seriously considered before making a manned trip to Mars.
    Strengths the case to have solid experience on the moon before going further afield.
    I am because we are
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  7. #937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I think they're just getting after you because you said "they won't get there alive," which is a bit of an exaggeration...
    Jens, not picking on you, but help me out here, anyone. How many dead astronauts and cosmonauts do we have now? Sure, radiation didn't kill them, but we can't keep the ISS "afloat" without regular shipments of supplies, things break down all the time, and if there's a solar storm of some kind the space crew can't escape it. And the space crews going to Mars are gonna be out there on their own for how long?

    I'll let the argument go, everyone can pile on me, whatever. The point is, the dangers are big and I would bet we are missing a few new ones. If it seems I exaggerated about the radiation, then I did. Or maybe not. We'll see.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2019-Jun-07 at 12:26 PM.

  8. #938
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Strengths the case to have solid experience on the moon before going further afield.
    Right on, as we used to say with our fists in the air.

  9. #939
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Jens, not picking on you, but help me out here, anyone. How many dead astronauts and cosmonauts do we have now? Sure, radiation didn't kill them, but we can't keep the ISS "afloat" without regular shipments of supplies, things break down all the time, and if there's a solar storm of some kind the space crew can't escape it. And the space crews going to Mars are gonna be out there on their own for how long?

    I'll let the argument go, everyone can pile on me, whatever. The point is, the dangers are big and I would bet we are missing a few new ones. If it seems I exaggerated about the radiation, then I did. Or maybe not. We'll see.
    Your point was not "the dangers are big". Your point was "the radiation would kill them", which is outright misinformation that is contradicted by everything we know.

    Yes, there are dangers involved in space travel, as there are with everything else. Radiation is one of them. We are not going to deal with those dangers by inventing boogeymen.

  10. #940
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    How do you view radiation damage of the sort discussed in the article?
    As a possibility, not an inevitability. Something to be planned around and thought about how to mitigate, as indeed it currently is.

    ADDED: Risk reduction is the issue.
    Last edited by Noclevername; 2019-Jun-07 at 02:50 PM.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  11. #941
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    It seems to me radiation and gravity related issues are not given proper consideration by Mars and Moon colonization fans. Not a big deal, economics will shrink migration projections.
    I add that radiation numbers are indeed inevitable. Some accept the increased risk and I get that.

  12. #942
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    It seems to me radiation and gravity related issues are not given proper consideration by Mars and Moon colonization fans. Not a big deal, economics will shrink migration projections.
    I add that radiation numbers are indeed inevitable. Some accept the increased risk and I get that.
    The topic I described as not inevitable was the "die on the way" statement.

    Radiation is a topic of great interest and calculation by those who are serious about Mars visits and colonies. Gravity adaptation generally is not being tested because we lack the facilities to study humans in low gravity, only in microgravity. We need a slow-spinning space station to get data on that.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  13. #943
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    A different way to get to Mars: cycler orbits.

    http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/2019AcAau.154..286P

    Earth-Mars cyclers for a sustainable human exploration of Mars
    Pelle, Stewart; Gargioli, Eugenio; Berga, Marco; Pisacreta, Jacopo; Viola, Nicole; Dalla Sega, Alessandro; Pagone, Michele
    Acta Astronautica, Volume 154, p. 286-294. (01/2019)

    Since the early history of Space Exploration, Mars conquest has been the most important target. After Apollo mission's Moon landing, several concepts and projects, concerning a mission on the Red Planet, were developed. One of the most important contributes was given by Buzz Aldrin, who theorized the use of particular kind of orbits, called cycler orbits, as baseline for an enduring Mars colonization.

    A cycler orbit is a kind of orbit which repeats every integer multiple of synodic period and which encounters two bodies with a precise schedule. In the case, the bodies considered are Earth and Mars. It is possible to inject a space station in the cycler orbit which allows a continuous transfer of a crew from Low Earth Orbit to Mars Low Orbit and vice-versa. Small taxi vehicles are used to rendezvous the cycler station from the two bodies, significantly reducing the amount of propellant.

    In this paper a mission architecture based on this new concept was analysed, in order to develop an alternative mission profile compared to the actual architectures proposed for human missions. The work starts with an analysis of several classes of cycler. Through a trade-off analysis an unique class of cycler was identified as baseline for a further mission analysis. The mission analysis consists of an evaluation of orbital perturbation, the computation of DeltaV required for injection and rendezvous manoeuvres and an identification of close approach windows of the cycler with the two planets, allowing an evaluation of mission duration. Eventually, the presented mission concept was compared with more classical concepts, focusing on a key figure to enable Mars colonization, sustainability. Finally the proposed architecture should be seen as a preliminary assessment of an alternative solution to the currently proposed enabling architectures for the Martian exploration.

  14. #944
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    I had a short thread about cyclers recently.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  15. #945
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    Keep in mind that subsurface colonies on Mars had better be able to withstand meteor impact, such as this recent one leaving a crater about 16 meters across. That was a good solid whack.

    https://www.space.com/mars-fresh-cra...hoto-2019.html


    LATE ADD: 2-3 tons of space debris impact the atmosphere of Mars every day.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-06-meteor...an-clouds.html
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2019-Jun-17 at 03:52 PM.

  16. #946
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Keep in mind that subsurface colonies on Mars had better be able to withstand meteor impact, such as this recent one leaving a crater about 16 meters across. That was a good solid whack.

    https://www.space.com/mars-fresh-cra...hoto-2019.html


    LATE ADD: 2-3 tons of space debris impact the atmosphere of Mars every day.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-06-meteor...an-clouds.html
    Earth gets around 60 tons per day.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  17. #947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Earth gets around 60 tons per day.
    It's interesting that there is such a gap. Is it because Mars is smaller and lighter than earth, or its location? Or are the measurements just approximate? Just to note, I'm not asking you specifically, but just hoping that somebody can answer.
    As above, so below

  18. #948
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    It's interesting that there is such a gap. Is it because Mars is smaller and lighter than earth, or its location? Or are the measurements just approximate? Just to note, I'm not asking you specifically, but just hoping that somebody can answer.
    In addition to Earth just being a larger target, at least some of it is Earth and Venus making inner solar system asteroid orbits relatively unstable and prone to wander over time, and part shorter orbital periods providing more frequent opportunities for collision.

  19. #949
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    5-300 metric tons per day, says this Universe Today source from 2012.

    https://www.universetoday.com/94392/...st-hits-earth/

    60 tons per day, says this source.

    https://www.popsci.com/60-tons-cosmi...rth-every-day/

    Wildly different amounts from this source.

    http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/abo...r-intermediate

    "Estimates for the mass of material that falls on Earth each year range from 37,000-78,000 tons. Most of this mass would come from dust-sized particles. A study done in 1996 (looking at the number of meteorites found in deserts over time) calculated that for objects in the 10 gram to 1 kilogram size range, 2900-7300 kilograms per year hit Earth. However, unlike the number above this does not include the small dust particles. They also estimate between 36 and 166 meteorites larger than 10 grams fall to Earth per million square kilometers per year. Over the whole surface area of Earth, that translates to 18,000 to 84,000 meteorites bigger than 10 grams per year. But most meteorites are too small to actually fall all the way to the surface."

    The point being a lot of stuff hits the inner four planets and Moon, so be prepared for it.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2019-Jun-21 at 01:58 AM.

  20. #950
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    Synopsis from last October on the Mars terraforming debate: does Mars have enough CO2 or not? Good article.

    http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/2009JBIS...62..422P

    http://nautil.us/issue/65/in-plain-s...rm-mars-or-not
    So Can We Terraform Mars or Not? Elon Musk wants to engineer Mars’ atmosphere. Can he?
    By Brian Gallagher - October 11, 2018

  21. #951
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    "Jeff Bezos says reaching Mars without first going back to the moon is an ‘illusion’"

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/21/jeff...-illusion.html

    veryone from President Donald Trump to Elon Musk is understandably excited at the prospect of humans eventually reaching Mars, but Jeff Bezos says focusing on reaching Mars before first establishing a presence on the moon is an “illusion.”

    The president recently tweeted that NASA should keep its sights set on Mars, rather than “talking about going to the moon, and Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, says SpaceX will transport humans to the distant “Red Planet” by 2024, two years after the aerospace company plans to land its first unmanned rocket on Mars.

    However, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos — whose aerospace company Blue Origin is busy engaging in the modern-day “space race” — said going to the moon “is actually the fastest way to get to Mars.”

    “If you’re gonna need a lot of supplies and fuel and bulk materials to go to Mars, you’re much better lifting them off the moon than you are lifting them off the Earth,” Bezos said in an interview at the JFK Space Summit in Boston on Wednesday.

    “It’s an illusion that you can skip a step,” Bezos said. “Skipping steps slows you down, it’s seductive but wrong.”
    I am because we are
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  22. #952
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    Wait a minute, Curiosity has detected significant amounts of methane on Mars. Chemical activity... or life?

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/cur...methane-levels

  23. #953
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    Staying in shape on Mars will be difficult for colonists.

    https://slate.com/technology/2019/07...-exercise.html

  24. #954
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    How long until we gene-engineer planets that can live on Mars? Maybe not too long after all.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-07-mitochondrial-dna.html

  25. #955
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    Mixed reviews on a study showing no increase in mortality among space travelers due to space radiation.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-07-space-...ovascular.html

    Many astronauts and cosmonauts have not been in space very long. Also, wide variety of conditions of spaceflight.

  26. #956
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post

    Many astronauts and cosmonauts have not been in space very long. Also, wide variety of conditions of spaceflight.
    And largely with minimal shielding.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  27. #957
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Mixed reviews on a study showing no increase in mortality among space travelers due to space radiation.
    I havenít read the article, but what seems tricky is that astronauts are chosen for being healthy in the first place, so itís not necessarily easy to find a proper control group.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    As above, so below

  28. #958
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    And largely with minimal shielding.
    Spaceflight has avoided areas of high radiation in the Van Allen belts or sped thru them.

  29. #959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Spaceflight has avoided areas of high radiation in the Van Allen belts or sped thru them.
    Yup. But outside of that, we've done without shielding.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  30. #960
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    Use silica aerogel to colonize regions of Mars, if not the whole world?

    https://phys.org/news/2019-07-silica...habitable.html

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