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Thread: Another space race?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    It is a different perspective on the news and as such worth reporting.

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    Sigh...Sputnik News misinforms the ignorant.

  2. #92
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    Time line of USA and China space programme.

    http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la...htmlstory.html

    "The first true rocket was fired by China in 1232, during a war with the Mongols. But by the time the Soviet Union and the United States pioneered modern space exploration in the 1950s and í60s, China was largely out of the game. When the United States landed a man on the moon almost half a century ago, China was mired in political turmoil. The country didnít send an astronaut into space until 2003.

    But now itís catching up."

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  3. #93
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    We have been reading about how China is playing catch up with Russia and the USA.

    Now Russia can see them in their review mirror. In another 5 years if China can successfully pull of their robotic missions to the moon and Mars, as well as their space station I would put them ahead of Russia. Even now China has more operating satellites than Russia.

    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1071421.shtml

    "China's achievements in the space industry in the past five years prove the nation can independently develop its own space technology, and Western countries which used to prevent cooperation with China may think twice, experts said.

    They said the breakthroughs in the space industry include the heavy-lift rocket, lunar exploration, BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, and Micius quantum satellite and space station.

    "These breakthroughs prove that China can develop its own independent space strategy and is shortening the gap with the other two major space powers, US and Russia. In some areas China has even surpassed them," Song Zhongping, a military expert who served in the PLA Rocket Force, told the Global Times on Sunday."

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  4. #94
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    Hmm. I don't quite get how at times you decry the space race and yet you forever vaunt China's climb within that context. Whatever, it is unimportant.

    The Space Race as per the 1960s USA vs Russia and others is dead. A more important race is for $/payload. SpaceX seems way ahead but others from around the world will follow. Expect cheaper and more powerful payloads from private concerns.

    Gubbernints still have big space budgets and will continue to be important, as in so many other fields. They will also have the most dangerous military stuff. The race for the best robots in space will be won by the entrepreneurs.

    YMMV

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    Hmm. I don't quite get how at times you decry the space race and yet you forever vaunt China's climb within that context. Whatever, it is unimportant.

    The Space Race as per the 1960s USA vs Russia and others is dead. A more important race is for $/payload. SpaceX seems way ahead but others from around the world will follow. Expect cheaper and more powerful payloads from private concerns.

    Gubbernints still have big space budgets and will continue to be important, as in so many other fields. They will also have the most dangerous military stuff. The race for the best robots in space will be won by the entrepreneurs.

    YMMV
    American private enterprise will certainly play an important role in the next few years. If NASA does focus on the moon I hope to see positive developments there.

    In the mean time ESA moon village will take shape with contributions from China, Japan, Russia and India.

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  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    American private enterprise will certainly play an important role in the next few years. If NASA does focus on the moon I hope to see positive developments there.

    In the mean time ESA moon village will take shape with contributions from China, Japan, Russia and India.

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    No. I am saying American private enterprise is setting the pace of the space race. Competitors from around the world will surely arise. Government's role is changing and being eclipsed by commercial interests.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    No. I am saying American private enterprise is setting the pace of the space race. Competitors from around the world will surely arise. Government's role is changing and being eclipsed by commercial interests.
    I think India will still give American private enterprise a run for their money. Chandrayaan II mission to cost US93 million including rocket and launch.

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  8. #98
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    This article has a more military bent but it does contain the number of operation satellites the US (803), China (204), Russia (142), and India (104) have as of August this year.

    The US is still far ahead of the others but the gag has been narrowing. Surprised to see China well ahead of Russia.

    http://www.straitstimes.com/world/un...-in-space-race

    "The United States needs to undertake an urgent revamp of its space strategies and rethink its investment priorities as part of a move to counter threats from rising space powers, particularly China, a US official has said.

    "The threats are moving fast and we need to stay ahead of it," Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Space Policy Stephen Kitay told the journal SpaceNews in his first media interview since taking office in May."

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  9. #99
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    The USA House Armed Services emerging threats and capabilities subcommittee was told of China's advances in space technology. In some areas they they are already equal or more advanced than the US (remember the pitch here is also to get additional budgets to invest in space).

    http://spacenews.com/in-space-and-cy...united-states/

    At the Tuesday hearing, Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., said lawmakers are not entirely convinced that China’s dominance in many technology sectors is a “foregone conclusion.” But the committee does believe that China’s technological accomplishments should inform U.S. policies and defense investments.

    “China continues to increase their research and development investments at an alarming pace and is rapidly closing many of their technology gaps,” Stefanik said. “More and more, we see China using only domestic Chinese firms and creating high market access barriers to support domestic capacity.”

    This has obvious national security implications, she said, “should they corner the market on advanced technologies critical to national security.”

  10. #100
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    China concedes it has a long way to go to catch up with the USA in space exploration.

    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1088610.shtml

    "China has a lot of catching up to do with the US on space technology because it was late in the game and only a few of its private companies have such a mature technology, Chinese experts said after the successful launch of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy on Tuesday.

    According to media reports, the Falcon Heavy can carry a payload of 16.8 tons to Mars.

    This shows China still lags far behind the US on space technology, because our most recently launched Long March-5 can only carry a payload of 25 tons into low Earth orbit, Huang Hai, vice president of Beihang University's School of Astronautics, told the Global Times."

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  11. #101
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    Expected articles talking of America's advances in space after SpaceX success with Falcon Heavy. Was not disappointed. Here are three of them.

    http://www.jhunewsletter.com/article...the-space-race

    n this feature, we explore how space science research has been and still is associated with both absurdity and great power competition. We delve into the roots of rocketry in war, the space race between the U.S. and the USSR, and what some consider to be the beginnings of a second space race between the U.S. and China. Through this piece, we hope to shed light on the nature of international competition and cooperation in space.
    http://thehill.com/opinion/national-...more-than-mars

    SpaceX has reached another milestone with the successful launch of Falcon Heavy. The launch is another example of the organization’s persistent ability to innovate and push market expansion.

    In the short term, the launch probably won’t add to SpaceX’s bottom line all that much, there just isn’t enough heavy lift demand. So why is the launch such a big deal? The importance of Tuesday’s maiden Falcon Heavy flight is less about the immediate financial return for SpaceX and more about what it signifies vis-ŗ-vis America’s interest in space and the country’s ability to leverage the free market system to develop the burgeoning space domain ahead of our peers.

    Maintaining America’s advantage in space has both economic and national security implications.
    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/...-in-space.html

    Additionally, The Wall Street Journal article noted that the successful test flight could mean the Falcon Heavy could start making paid missions to space within months. The National Space Council should nurture this possibility and quickly create a system that could help support as many U.S.-led launches into space as possible. Only this will create the environment necessary to establish a thriving U.S.-led business ecosystem.

    If the U.S. does not do this, our competitors will. A future where China or Russia dominates in space is not a safe, secure or prosperous future for America.
    Last edited by selvaarchi; 2018-Feb-10 at 08:47 AM.

  12. #102
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    Quora has a discussion piece "Can China win a space race to Mars against USA? Can trump cause such a race?"

    https://www.quora.com/Can-China-win-...se-such-a-race

    So many many variables play into this, it's hard to say. The easy part to answer is that no, trump could not spark such a race. There is no “space race” anymore, and it would take a lot more than Number 45 talking smack, or even Congress directing (and funding!) NASA to send human explorers to Mars ASAP, to “ignite a space race to Mars” between the USA and China.

    First of all, despite some encouraging Chinese successes, their space technology still lags well behind American space technology. Sure, they are catching up, but they have several important milestones to achieve before they have “space operations competence” to match either Russia or America.

    Those milestones— like a successful human orbital mission (launch, orbital insertion, re-entry, landing), successful EVA missions in orbit, successful craft rendezvous in orbit, berthing & docking their Chinese craft with the ISS (berthing is easier!), a long-duration orbital mission (perhaps at a higher orbit), a human cislunar mission (around the moon & back, or to a Lagrange point and back, etc), a satellite rendezvous, a NEO rendezvous (even with a robotic craft, doesn't need to be human-piloted)… all these are not merely ribbons to pin on someone's chest. They require a space agency to develop not just tech but operational experience doing difficult things in space. This is the kind of operational experience China will need to successfully send taikonauts to Mars.

  13. #103
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    USA sees China as their main competitor in space. This according to the latest US National Space Council meeting.

    http://spacenews.com/council-discuss...osed-by-china/

    A panel discussion on national security space at the Council’s Feb. 21 meeting at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center focused primarily on the growing capabilities of, and the growing threat posed by, China’s space efforts, including the development of counterspace capabilities that could disrupt American space systems in the event of a conflict.

    “Russia and China are each developing counterspace capabilities to use during a potential future conflict with the United States to reduce U.S. and allied advantage and effectiveness, eroding our information advantage,” said Susan Gordon, principal deputy director of national intelligence.

    She singled out China’s “impressive rise — and it is impressive — as a space power,” citing a more than ten-fold increase in number of operational satellites since 2000 and development of advanced technologies, such as tests of quantum satellite communications.

    “China has the best politically supported and best resourced foreign space program that we have seen in many years,” she said. “Its years of intense activity are beginning to bear fruit.”
    Andrew Jones take on the US National Space Council meeting.

    https://gbtimes.com/us-space-policy-...nd-opportunity

    A public meeting of the White House National Space Council on commercial space and regulatory reform held on February 21 saw divergent views on how to react to the rise of China's space programme.

    The event was held at NASA’s Kennedy Space Centre in Florida and chaired by Vice President Mike Pence.

    While the main issues were commercial space business and innovation and the related regulatory regime, highlighted by SpacePolicyOnline.com, the matter of potential engagement with, and threats and opportunities from, the increasingly comprehensive and capable Chinese space programme, emerged as a key issue, as reported by SpaceNews.com.
    Last edited by selvaarchi; 2018-Feb-22 at 03:35 PM.

  14. #104
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    Yet another article on US phobia of others catching up with them in space technology and havens forbid overtaking them in some areas. The bogey man is of course China.

    http://spacenews.com/massive-review-...ace-challenge/

    A deep-dive analysis of the defense industrial base will be submitted to the White House in mid-April. Requested by President Trump last July, the hugely anticipated study will look at all sectors of the defense industry from a broad national security perspective.

    The context of this review is growing angst about China gaining ground on the United States — or surpassing it in some cases — in technology development and manufacturing capabilities. Trump’s “National Security Strategy of the United States of America” released in December ties economic strength to national security, and calls for a greater effort to protect the “national security innovation base.” This is a term coined by the administration to capture the ecosystem of activities that the nation needs to preserve and protect in order to advance as a technological and military power.

    Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and other senior administration officials see the U.S. innovation base threatened by intellectual property theft perpetrated by China and others. Another cause for concern: China has a “grand strategy” for leading the world in key technology areas such as quantum satellites, artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons; the U.S. has no such long-term blueprint. The Pentagon complains its innovation efforts are hamstrung by unstable budgets and Washington’s larger political dysfunction.

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Yet another article on US phobia[...]
    Not an appropriate comment. Don't do it again.
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  16. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by PetersCreek View Post
    Not an appropriate comment. Don't do it again.
    Sorry, will do.

  17. #107
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    Patent applications might indicate China's rise as a space power.

    http://spacenews.com/one-way-to-meas...-applications/

    U.S. Air Force leaders call China a “pacing threat” because of the speed at which is it modernizing.

    If patent applications are a measure of innovation, it is notable that space-related technology filings are increasing in China, says a new report by the data analytics firm Govini.

    “The number of patent applications filed within countries can provide insights into the dynamics of each country’s market,” says Govini’s Space Platforms & Hypersonic Technologies Taxonomy.

  18. #108
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    Newt Gingrich on the USA keeping it lead in the space race.

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/...e-in-2024.html

    Two historic events happened this past week that will lay the groundwork for the future of American space exploration.

    First, after a close vote in the Senate, Rep. Jim Bridenstine, R-Okla. – a former Navy combat pilot – was confirmed as the new head of NASA. I am confident he will be a strong leader in space exploration as we begin a new era of innovation, technological advancement and limitless exploration.

    Second, Vice President Mike Pence laid out a bold vision for America’s future in space exploration during his opening remarks at the Space Foundation’s 34th Annual Space Symposium in Colorado. The vice president showed the Trump administration’s commitment to restoring American leadership in space, rightly pointing out that “we stand at the dawn of a new era of human activity in space; a turning point that will bring new opportunities and new challenges.”

    This renewed interest in space has the potential to dramatically change our space program over the next several years, But in order to achieve this, we must be able to think big and set bold goals.

  19. #109
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    The following article is about the Asian space race.

    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/05...-race-in-asia/

    Asia houses three established space powers — Japan, China and India — with space exploration goals ranging from social and economic development to improving telecommunications and national security. But it is the national security drivers of Asian space exploration that are becoming more prominent, partly driven by the changing balance of power equations both within Asia and beyond.

  20. #110
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    This is not about the space race but more about China positioning itself as a credible international partner in space exploration for peaceful use.

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what...for-the-world/

    Not many realize how impactful China’s upcoming space station will be, once it becomes operational by 2022. It is even more so given that the International Space Station (ISS) will remain operational only up to 2024, after which its funding will run out. By 2025, then, China will be the only country on earth with a permanent space station.

    Bai Mingsheng, chief designer of China’s first cargo spacecraft Tianzhou-1, in an interview to China Central Television, stated that “China might be the only country that will run a space station in the foreseeable future. We could invite other nations to carry out experiments on [our] space station, making it an international scientific platform for all humankind.”

    On May 28, China issued a call for all United Nations members to participate in its upcoming space station for the peaceful use of outer space in cooperation with the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). Simonetta Di Pippo, director of UNOOSA, stated in an interview to Xinhua,“This is an agreement which will allow the entire world to use, for scientific purposes, the China Space Station when it will be ready… it’s the first time it is open to all member states.”

  21. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    This is not about the space race but more about China positioning itself as a credible international partner in space exploration for peaceful use.

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what...for-the-world/
    This weeks Space Review has an article that implies a space station no more brings the prestige it once did.

    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3506/1

    Setting the UN announcement aside, there’s a bigger question: will China gain prestige with its new space station, and will the US lose it when the ISS is retired? It’s fair to say there will be some benefit to China, domestically and maybe internationally, by having its own space station. And, the end of the ISS will mark the end of an era in human spaceflight.

    However, human spaceflight doesn’t carry the same degree of influence as it did a half-century ago. At any given time, there are three to six people in orbit at the ISS, but most of the public probably doesn’t know that, and even fewer can name who is there. It’s just not as important as it was when human spaceflight was an arena of competition in the Cold War.

    Look at it this way: the United States lost the ability to launch people into orbit with the retirement of the space shuttle nearly seven years ago. (Yes, that long!) It probably won’t be until some time next year before that capability is restored by Boeing or SpaceX. Yet, any loss of prestige by the US on the international stage has very little to do with that loss of ability.

    China has that ability but hasn’t used it much. China’s last human spaceflight was in the fall of 2016, three years after its previous flight. Its next one probably won’t be until 2020, after the launch of the core module of its space station. Clearly, it’s not a huge priority to them. It’s tough to have a new Space Race when no one is in much of a hurry.

  22. 2018-Jun-05, 01:56 PM
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  23. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    This weeks Space Review has an article that implies a space station no more brings the prestige it once did.

    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3506/1
    This article is an excellent analysis of the situation.

    IMO, while there is surely less prestige, the strategic importance of space grows and will continue to drive national space agencies to develop human space environments. But it is not surprising that there is no concrete plan anywhere. Strides in robotics, AI, etc, and falling launch costs make long term planning difficult. And while humanity is surely headed for space, it grows ever more difficult to see what role people will have other than as tourists or simple residents. Also, a new breed of rich space entrepreneurs have their own credible, for profit visions which could end up paving the way to space.

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