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Thread: Quake Predictor

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    Quake Predictor

    This site, associated with coast to coast, has predicted earthquakes 7 out of 7 times by day and location in the last couple months for quakes greater than magnitude 6. Their predictions are getting more and more specific. Anyone else been following this site.

    http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/

    It has to do with corona holes and energy of the earth.
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    Have they really predicted earthquakes? Have the listed all the times they made a prediction that didn't pan out? Have they listed all the earthquakes they didn't predict?

    It has to do with corona holes and energy of the earth.
    So nonsense then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Have they really predicted earthquakes? Have the listed all the times they made a prediction that didn't pan out? Have they listed all the earthquakes they didn't predict?



    So nonsense then.
    They have it posted everyday. I would watch it for yourself since anything I tell you, won't be believable. If you know how to do statistics you should be able to determine within a month that their work is accurate or not. I'm pretty sure this will be the biggest mainstream egg on the face in quite a long time. I believe you are a science reporter so you should be able to get in on the ground floor. I watched 3 predictions within the last week come true.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I watched 3 predictions within the last week come true.
    Out of how many?
    And ow many other similar size earthquakes were there?
    And how accurately do they predict them (location, size, date, time, etc)

    I tried going to that website but could not find any information at all. Can you provide a link to the page that lists their predictions.
    Last edited by Strange; 2016-Nov-25 at 10:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Out of how many?
    And ow many other similar size earthquakes were there?
    And how accurately do they predict them (location, size, date, time, etc)

    I tried going to that website but could not find any information at all. Can you provide a link to the page that lists their predictions.
    I don't know all the factors, but a corona hole in the sun, mainly on the southern hemisphere of the sun helps predict when an earth quake will occur and then some energy level over fault lines predicts when, within 24 hours. He looks at all the major fault lines and there is some energy, global electric circuits, that are more elevated. On 24th he had five areas that were likely to have a greater than 6 magnitude earthquake. So basically he predicted that each area had about a 20 percent chance of have a 6 or greater magnitude earthquake. He had different areas picked out the two days before that and one of the areas had a greater than 6 earth quake.
    You can go to his quakewatch.net for more information. There was a local news story about it at http://www.koat.com/article/video-ea...ctions/8299193
    I am sure, if you called him, he would be more than glad to talk to you.
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    What "energy level"? What form of energy? How is it measured?

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    Copernicus,

    If you are prepared to defend these assertions in the ATM forum, report this post and I will move the thread. If not, stop advocating for the claims.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    On 24th he had five areas that were likely to have a greater than 6 magnitude earthquake. So basically he predicted that each area had about a 20 percent chance of have a 6 or greater magnitude earthquake. He had different areas picked out the two days before that and one of the areas had a greater than 6 earth quake.
    You can go to his quakewatch.net for more information.
    I dug around on that website as well. All I could find was a table with (non working) links to maps showing that a quake would happen somewhere in the world at some time (typically in the next week). If that is a "prediction" then it is quite likely to be correct occasionally. There are, on average, several quakes of magnitude 6 or above each week.

    Without a proper statistical analysis of the accuracy, I see no reason not to consider this the nonsense that it appears to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    This site, associated with coast to coast, has predicted earthquakes 7 out of 7 times by day and location in the last couple months for quakes greater than magnitude 6. Their predictions are getting more and more specific.
    When you used your critical-thinking skills to ask yourself about this site, what questions did you ask, and how did you answer them?
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    Skepticism enables us to distinguish fancy from fact, to test our speculations. --Carl Sagan

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    Copernicus, I poked around the site and couldn't find any predictions, just talk of past predictions, which are naturally suspect. Maybe I missed it. If you think there's some validity to this, how about posting several of his predictions here and we'll see what happens?

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    If anyone cares to hunt for past predictions: Internet Archive, Wayback Machine: suspicious0bservers.org
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    Copernicus, I poked around the site and couldn't find any predictions, just talk of past predictions, which are naturally suspect. Maybe I missed it. If you think there's some validity to this, how about posting several of his predictions here and we'll see what happens?
    I will post a prediction when I see one. I will post it between 5 and 8 am central standard time when I see a prediction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    I dug around on that website as well. All I could find was a table with (non working) links to maps showing that a quake would happen somewhere in the world at some time (typically in the next week). If that is a "prediction" then it is quite likely to be correct occasionally. There are, on average, several quakes of magnitude 6 or above each week.

    Without a proper statistical analysis of the accuracy, I see no reason not to consider this the nonsense that it appears to be.
    You are right, there is about one magnitude 6 earthquake each 3 days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    It has to do with corona holes and energy of the earth.
    Basically cherry-picked "predictions" on a crank web site run by Ben Davidson - a lawyer! He has associated himself with the Thunderbolts cranks whose founders Talbott and Thornhill are neo-Velikovskians. He seems a climate change denier since he links to a climate change denial web site with for example the idiocy of "The 100% Fraudulent Hockey Stick" and does not realize how bad that site is. A rather scathing article about him: How one man turned conspiracy theories and impeding doom into a YouTube empire.
    The "7 predictions in a row" video is a bit crazy. Prediction via Tweets! Waves a cursor over Japan + dumb image of a what looks like an electric discharge gives a prediction of a M6.2 earthquake in Japan! Repeat assertions and electric discharge craziness.

    Where is his prediction of a M7.8 earthquake in New Zealand for 13 November 2016? Quake Predictions of SpaceWeatherNews missed that one end even got the daily prediction for 13 November 2016 wrong - and 11 November and 18 November !

    Every day there are earthquakes. Anyone can make up that an earthquake is related to something on the Sun by cherry picking the earthquake and activity.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Nov-28 at 12:43 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Basically cherry-picked "predictions" on a crank web site run by Ben Davidson - a lawyer! He has associated himself with the Thunderbolts cranks whose founders Talbott and Thornhill are neo-Velikovskians. He seems a climate change denier since he links to a climate change denial web site with for example the idiocy of "The 100% Fraudulent Hockey Stick" and does not realize how bad that site is. A rather scathing article about him: How one man turned conspiracy theories and impeding doom into a YouTube empire.
    The "7 predictions in a row" video is a bit crazy. Prediction via Tweets! Waves a cursor over Japan + dumb image of a what looks like an electric discharge gives a prediction of a M6.2 earthquake in Japan! Repeat assertions and electric discharge craziness.

    Where is his prediction of a M7.8 earthquake in New Zealand for 13 November 2016? Quake Predictions of SpaceWeatherNews missed that one end even got the daily prediction for 13 November 2016 wrong - and 11 November and 18 November !

    Every day there are earthquakes. Anyone can make up that an earthquake is related to something on the Sun by cherry picking the earthquake and activity.
    No new predictions yet for greater than 6.0 earthquake.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    No new predictions yet for greater than 6.0 earthquake.
    Which is a problem with the "predictions" - where is his prediction of a period without a > 6.0 earthquake?

    Note that the alert maps have markings produced through some magical process that just happen to coincide with earthquake-prone zones, e.g. Japan, Indonesia and California! That is pretty much a "there will be hurricanes in hurricane season"-type prediction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Which is a problem with the "predictions" - where is his prediction of a period without a > 6.0 earthquake?

    Note that the alert maps have markings produced through some magical process that just happen to coincide with earthquake-prone zones, e.g. Japan, Indonesia and California! That is pretty much a "there will be hurricanes in hurricane season"-type prediction.
    I was just updating that I have not seen a prediction for a greater than 6 earthquake since I said I would post when one is predicted. I am fairly confident there will be predictions in the next day or so. I am not confident that he is not a quack yet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I am not confident that he is not a quack yet.
    Quote Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
    When you used your critical-thinking skills to ask yourself about this site, what questions did you ask, and how did you answer them?
    Perhaps you are so open-minded that you did not ask questions of yourself?
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    Quote Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
    Perhaps you are so open-minded that you did not ask questions of yourself?
    I have to take physicists thoughts with a grain of salt when they ridicule other people. This video is how I see physicists are with each other all time.

    https://www.facebook.com/18603356894...type=2&theater

    That said I still think Ben could be a crackpot, but his ideas of weather on the sun affecting the earth dramatically, doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
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    If he's citing Thunderbolts, it should. I remember Electric Universe from my time spent actually participating in ATM, and it's unreliable at best and completely nonsensical at worst, usually pointing due "ignoring the evidence."
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    According to Ben Davidson a large earthquake or series of large earthquakes are likely to hit when there is a large southern corona hole facing the earth. This is about to happen in the next few days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    According to Ben Davidson a large earthquake or series of large earthquakes are likely to hit when there is a large southern corona hole facing the earth. This is about to happen in the next few days.
    Have you researched the timing between recent earthquakes in that area? Does the statistical variation fall in Davidson's prediction? If so he is not likely predicting an earthquake with science but more statistics.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    According to Ben Davidson a large earthquake or series of large earthquakes are likely to hit when there is a large southern corona hole facing the earth. This is about to happen in the next few days.
    That's not exactly the same as saying they are more likely to occur at a given time. Are earthquakes also likely to occur when no large southern corona hole is facing the Earth?

    Admittedly I have not looked at the site. If I looked at statistics for 5000 continuous days, then if the theory is valid, there should be a significant statistical correlation for earthquake numbers on days with the coronal alignment and those without.
    Depending on whom you ask, everything is relative.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Have you researched the timing between recent earthquakes in that area? Does the statistical variation fall in Davidson's prediction? If so he is not likely predicting an earthquake with science but more statistics.
    We can go with just a statistical correlation for now. His arguments do have the sound of slight of hand. So we will see, if, when the corona hole does face earth, if large earthquakes, or a series of large earthquakes hit earth in the next few days. Not sure when the corona hole will be facing earth exactly. Could be a day or two days yet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkline55 View Post
    That's not exactly the same as saying they are more likely to occur at a given time. Are earthquakes also likely to occur when no large southern corona hole is facing the Earth?

    Admittedly I have not looked at the site. If I looked at statistics for 5000 continuous days, then if the theory is valid, there should be a significant statistical correlation for earthquake numbers on days with the coronal alignment and those without.
    The corona holes occur rather frequently. Not all earthquakes are predicted to occur during this time. It is not suggested that this is the case. I'm not a statistician, but sometimes correlations are so strong, that one does not need pin point statistics to analyze the data. I do not think 5000 days of data would be necessary or even one year.
    I'm pretty sure traditions, diet, that have been developed in society, or for that matter, animals, are developed because we see intuitively, that this works. The first year I plant pumpkins in an area, the deer do not eat them. The next year, somehow, many deer already know that those plants are edible. Did they do complex statistical analysis?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post

    That said I still think Ben could be a crackpot, but his ideas of weather on the sun affecting the earth dramatically, doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
    I've watched as much of his "Top 6 Climate Problems" video as I can stand. It is full of long-debunked ideas, and to anyone who has studied the issue it is completely unreasonable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    That said I still think Ben could be a crackpot, but his ideas of weather on the sun affecting the earth dramatically, doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
    Good to know. Filed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Torsten View Post
    I've watched as much of his "Top 6 Climate Problems" video as I can stand. It is full of long-debunked ideas, and to anyone who has studied the issue it is completely unreasonable.
    Just to let you know. This thread is about his quake predictions not the weather. That said, if Ben is correct about large corona holes, but more so southern ones being associated with earthquakes, I think, since his audience is amateurs, that this correlation should be low hanging fruit, otherwise he is just another guy producing interesting, entertaining, stuff to get money off of people.
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    So this is not so much a claim of earthquake prediction but a hypothesis that solar activity influences the Earth's tectonics?

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    Magnitude 6.3 - 43km NE of Huarichancara, Peru. 2016-12-01 22:40:26 UTC

    USGS

    Was this predicted?
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