Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 60 of 134

Thread: Quake Predictor

  1. #31
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    Magnitude 6.3 - 43km NE of Huarichancara, Peru. 2016-12-01 22:40:26 UTC

    USGS

    Was this predicted?
    He says that it was an alert zone, but his mention of it was only after the earthquake. It may have been mentioned as an alert zone in his paid section ahead of time as he says, but I am not going to pay for any premium service. My plan is only to mention alert zones when he posts them in the free section.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    He says that it was an alert zone, but his mention of it was only after the earthquake. It may have been mentioned as an alert zone in his paid section ahead of time as he says, but I am not going to pay for any premium service. My plan is only to mention alert zones when he posts them in the free section.
    I guess I'm not being clear. His predictions are statistically an earthquake is more likely to occur at certain times and locations. He does not predict any exact times or locations.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    British Columbia
    Posts
    2,923
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Just to let you know. This thread is about his quake predictions not the weather. That said, if Ben is correct about large corona holes, but more so southern ones being associated with earthquakes, I think, since his audience is amateurs, that this correlation should be low hanging fruit, otherwise he is just another guy producing interesting, entertaining, stuff to get money off of people.
    Yes, I know the thread is about quakes. But you mentioned the weather thing, as if it was something that could bolster his credibility. But the reverse is true. If he can get something so well understood so incredibly wrong, then why should I trust him to get this much more complicated (going by what geologists say) topic right? I think it's a pretty common phenomenon that cranks will claim not just one, but a whole slew of wrong ideas. I find it irritating, and not interesting or entertaining.

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Bend, Oregon
    Posts
    6,148
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I guess I'm not being clear. His predictions are statistically an earthquake is more likely to occur at certain times and locations. He does not predict any exact times or locations.
    Well, then I'd say there's a ton of data on earthquakes times and locations, and a ton of data on solar activity. Shouldn't be too hard to run the numbers and see if they correlate. 'Predicting' earthquakes is snake oil salesmanship. Has he run the numbers and then submitted his work for peer review?

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Torsten View Post
    Yes, I know the thread is about quakes. But you mentioned the weather thing, as if it was something that could bolster his credibility. But the reverse is true. If he can get something so well understood so incredibly wrong, then why should I trust him to get this much more complicated (going by what geologists say) topic right? I think it's a pretty common phenomenon that cranks will claim not just one, but a whole slew of wrong ideas. I find it irritating, and not interesting or entertaining.
    True enough.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    Well, then I'd say there's a ton of data on earthquakes times and locations, and a ton of data on solar activity. Shouldn't be too hard to run the numbers and see if they correlate. 'Predicting' earthquakes is snake oil salesmanship. Has he run the numbers and then submitted his work for peer review?
    True enough. I don't know where to find the data. But the last corona hole eartquakes were enough do me to notice.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    This the closest I could find to a study. http://spaceweathernews.com/studies-...e-earthquakes/ and the journal new concepts in global tectonics journal Sept 2015 p 310
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    I don't know anything about the electric universe and the thunderbolt project except that they are considered quackery. I still wouldn't doubt that the suns magnetic fields and whatever the sun emits could have profound effects on the earth. Earthquakes weather lightening volcanos people's moods etc.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    This the closest I could find to a study. http://spaceweathernews.com/studies-...e-earthquakes/ and the journal new concepts in global tectonics journal Sept 2015 p 310
    It's not a peer reviewed journal. It's just a place for people fighting against "mainstream censorship" to publish what they want.
    As above, so below

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Bend, Oregon
    Posts
    6,148
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    True enough. I don't know where to find the data. But the last corona hole eartquakes were enough do me to notice.
    No, I was suggesting this Ben Davidson should have done the research and determined if there's a correlation.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I don't know anythinI still wouldn't doubt that the suns magnetic fields and whatever the sun emits could have profound effects on the earth. Earthquakes weather lightening volcanos people's moods etc.
    It's wrong to lump those together. The weather and people's moods? Sure, there are plausible mechanisms. But earthquakes? No, there isn't a plausible mechanism. Earthquakes are geologic events that take place regularly along faults because of pressure on faults caused by plate movements. There are historical maps of where earthquakes regularly occur.
    As above, so below

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    It's wrong to lump those together. The weather and people's moods? Sure, there are plausible mechanisms. But earthquakes? No, there isn't a plausible mechanism. Earthquakes are geologic events that take place regularly along faults because of pressure on faults caused by plate movements. There are historical maps of where earthquakes regularly occur.
    It appears ben is not making specific predictions. Based on his past arguments there should be large earthquakes in one to two days, due to a corona hole and certain planetary alignments.

    His recent lack of specificity is agravating.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    His recent lack of specificity is agravating.
    His lack of specificity is his brilliance.

    That's how fortune tellers do their work. The more non-specific you are, the more hits you get...
    As above, so below

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    11,496
    About the best you can do is have a detector of a P wave shut down train traffic before the S wave hits and de-rails everything.

  15. #45
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    These locations he says have a 40 percent chance of greater than 7 earth quake in next 24 hours https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRealS0...331584/photo/1
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  16. #46
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,018
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    These locations he says have a 40 percent chance of greater than 7 earth quake in next 24 hours https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRealS0...331584/photo/1
    To be blunt, that is a meaningless prediction. If there isn't an earthquake, he can claim it was only a 40% chance. If there is, he would have to demonstrate that you somehow did better than a random guess of a earthquake in multiple earthquake-prone locations.

    Let's just suppose that there is something to his idea, that coronal holes on the sun increase the probability of an earthquake. I suppose he must believe it isn't an on/off mechanism (otherwise it would be 100% chance), but more like it increases the stresses in that region and increases the probability.

    The only way you are ever going to demonstrate such a relationship is a massive statistical analysis, showing that the coronal holes increase the probabilities over a massive data set. Fortunately, we have such data; earthquake records go back many decades. I don't know how long coronal holes have been systematically monitored (they've been known since at least the 1980s), but it has to be years. So one could do such an analysis.

    So, where is this analysis? I'm not asking you, Copernicus, to do it, but I expect this guy to have done so. If there is something there, then publish it. If there isn't, but you are still trying to milk the idea... I suspect you would only tweet about it. Until I see the publication, I rate this as nonsense.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  17. #47
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    It's not completely clear what he means in the tweet. The areas seem pretty broad, but if he's saying that there is a 40 percent chance in each of those locations, then if there are big earthquakes in three of them, then I'd be impressed. If he's only saying that there is a 40 percent chance of one happening in any of those areas, then it's much less impressive but still worth looking at. On average I think that currently there are about 15 magnitude 7 or bigger earthquake a year, so we should expect one every 24 days. If you take a single prediction, then yes it's meaningless because there are insufficient data points, but if you look up a lot of his predictions you can start to average them up and see how well he does.
    As above, so below

  18. #48
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    It's not completely clear what he means in the tweet. The areas seem pretty broad, but if he's saying that there is a 40 percent chance in each of those locations, then if there are big earthquakes in three of them, then I'd be impressed. If he's only saying that there is a 40 percent chance of one happening in any of those areas, then it's much less impressive but still worth looking at. On average I think that currently there are about 15 magnitude 7 or bigger earthquake a year, so we should expect one every 24 days. If you take a single prediction, then yes it's meaningless because there are insufficient data points, but if you look up a lot of his predictions you can start to average them up and see how well he does.
    He changed the alert zones to the following. His prediction is that it would be a 40 percent chance of a greater than 7 with all the zones together in the next 24 hours, and about 80 percent chance of a 6 or greater.

    https://twitter.com/TheRealS0s
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  19. #49
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    1,903
    Until someone figures out how to make specific predictions, and hits them consistently, to within an hour or two, earthquake prediction will never be more more than educated guesses. There is a good correlation between fraking and minor quakes. Yet still in areas where we are having man made quakes, we can't seem to be able to predict the time, location and magnitude of a quake.

  20. #50
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Another thing to mention about earthquake prediction. In Japan we get fairly large earthquakes quite regularly. To be honest, even if I knew that a magnitude 6 earthquake was going to come tomorrow afternoon, I probably wouldn't stay home from work. The buildings sway, but they don't fall down, and the trains sometimes stop as a precaution but they usually start up within a few minutes. Now, if I knew that a 7.9 or 8.0 earthquake was coming, I would definitely go to a park to wait it out, but those earthquakes a very rare. So in practical terms, earthquake prediction isn't even that useful when it's accurate. The best thing to do is (as is done in Japan) make buildings earthquake proof, have helmets in your desk, know what to do when an earthquake strikes, and have food and water supplies in local government offices. In Tokyo the last really devastating earthquake was almost a century ago (1923), and that was only so horrible because homes were made of wood then and it happened just before lunchtime when people were using stoves. Even the 3/11 earthquake, which was about 8 I think, didn't kill so many people. It was the tsunami that caused the vast majority of the deaths (and the nuclear accident as well). I doubt that power companies would even bother to shut down nuclear reactors unless they knew that a very big earthquake was coming, because normally they are tripped automatically if the earthquake is over a certain level, so there's no point in deliberately stopping it just to prevent it from being stopped by the tripping mechanism.

    Knowing about a typhoon or snowstorm is much more useful, because you would avoid going out that evening.
    As above, so below

  21. #51
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Looks like there was a 6.0 in the Indonesia alert zone.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  22. #52
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by Superluminal View Post
    Until someone figures out how to make specific predictions, and hits them consistently, to within an hour or two, earthquake prediction will never be more more than educated guesses. There is a good correlation between fraking and minor quakes. Yet still in areas where we are having man made quakes, we can't seem to be able to predict the time, location and magnitude of a quake.
    You are right that 24 hours is too long and the locations are not specific enough to help. But prediction has to start somewhere.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  23. #53
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    3,417
    Not that I want to lend credence to this Earthquake Predictor idea, but let's not go overboard with the criticism.

    To wit:
    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    ... just happen to coincide with earthquake-prone zones, e.g. Japan, Indonesia and California! That is pretty much a "there will be hurricanes in hurricane season"-type prediction.
    This is not a valid criticism.

    It does not hurt his claims by us (you) noting that his predictions of earthquakes tend to occur where earthquakes are common. He's not looking for inexplicable earthquakes.

    "I can predict when tornados will occur! I can save lives!"
    "Really? Anywhere in the world?"
    "Well, they mostly occur on Toronado Alley and Europe, but..."
    "Bah! What a dumb talent. Now if you told me you could predict them in the Arctic! THAT would be a feat!"
    But ... tornados don't happen in the Arctic...
    Last edited by DaveC426913; 2016-Dec-05 at 03:13 AM.

  24. #54
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Looks like there was a 6.0 in the Indonesia alert zone.
    I'm not sure but it looks like it was to the north of the alert zone. Though I'm not sure what that arrow means.
    As above, so below

  25. #55
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    13,616
    Quote Originally Posted by DaveC426913 View Post
    Not that I want to lend credence to this Earthquake Predictor idea, but let's not go overboard with the criticism.
    Yes, I agree. He's not saying that coronal holes can create earthquakes where they never occur, just that they trigger ones that are waiting to happen.

    Another thing is that it seems that he keeps "updating" the predictions. Which is fine, except that you also have to give him credit for both hits and misses with previous versions. So for example, Indonesia wasn't in the version posted 17 hours ago. So in that prediction, he failed to predict the one in Indonesia.
    As above, so below

  26. #56
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    4,758
    Copernicus, this guy has made no accurate predictions ans wants to charge for his services.

    You figure it out.
    I'm not a hardnosed mainstreamer; I just like the observations, theories, predictions, and results to match.

    "Mainstream isnít a faith system. It is a verified body of work that must be taken into account if you wish to add to that body of work, or if you want to change the conclusions of that body of work." - korjik

  27. #57
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by John Mendenhall View Post
    Copernicus, this guy has made no accurate predictions ans wants to charge for his services.

    You figure it out.
    Sorry I thought he charged for the quake predictor site but he does not. But anyways the first post of his actual prediction was yesterday. Roughly a 6 magnitude occurs every 3 days. His alert areas are roughly one sixth of the seismicly active areas so there was approximately one in 18 chance that he would have randomly succeeded. Let's say this happens 3 times in a row
    Then one is talking 4 sigma. The corona hole is just starting so I expect he will be predicting more soon. Ben will probably say that not much energy is released from a 6.3 so it Will be active for the next few days. Definitely we should skeptical.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  28. #58
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    8
    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    I dug around on that website as well. All I could find was a table with (non working) links to maps showing that a quake would happen somewhere in the world at some time (typically in the next week). If that is a "prediction" then it is quite likely to be correct occasionally. There are, on average, several quakes of magnitude 6 or above each week.

    Without a proper statistical analysis of the accuracy, I see no reason not to consider this the nonsense that it appears to be.
    I predict an earthquake every day at every location, that way I get them all.

    It would also be interesting to know whether the website predicted these earthquakes before or after they happened.

  29. #59
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    The quake watch is still active, the alert zones have shifted. Ben does not say it explicitly, but he 6 magnitude quake would be about 80 percent within 24 hours and the 7 magnitude watch would be 40 percent within 24 hours. The alert zones do shift, just like the weather keeps moving and shifting. The following is the current alert zone.

    https://twitter.com/TheRealS0s
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  30. #60
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    2,798
    Quote Originally Posted by bengali View Post
    I predict an earthquake every day at every location, that way I get them all.

    It would also be interesting to know whether the website predicted these earthquakes before or after they happened.
    I'm not saying that Ben is legit, but his alert was more specific than saying an earthquake will occur at every location every day. His prediction as shown below is a 24 hour alert, which is more specific than anything I have heard of before.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •