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Thread: Quake Predictor

  1. #61
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    The alert zone has changed to the following. https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRealS0s

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I am not confident that he is not a quack yet.
    Why would we want any earthquake predictions from a lawyer with no expertise in earthquakes?
    Experts in earthquakes have been looking a relationship between solar activity and earthquakes because there were reasonable physical mechanisms that might have an influence, e.g. increases in solar wind might make the atmosphere expand which would affect Earth's rotations and put stress on fault lines. No significant correlation has been found.
    Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes
    We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.
    Does the sun trigger earthquakes?
    avares and Azevedo [1] showed in their article, that there existed a correlation between the solar cycles and the earthquake activity. In their study they used both ancient records, as well as recent seismicity between 1950 and 2010. According to them, a possible link between solar activity and earthquake occurrence is the magnetic field of the earth, that is being changed in shape corresponding to the solar cycles and thus exerts a pressure on the earth’s crust. This study tries to test their results by means of correlation and cointegration, not only using recent solar and earthquake data, but also taking measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field strength into account. The results presented in this work show no clear connection between the seismicity and the 11-year solar cycles. The data rather indicates an anti-periodicity. It is not excluded, that a few strong CME events can influence the triggering of earthquake events, however, this effect is presumably small and plays only a minor roll in the faulting process.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-06 at 12:45 AM.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    So this is not so much a claim of earthquake prediction but a hypothesis that solar activity influences the Earth's tectonics?
    It is more than a guess that solar activity influences the Earth's tectonics. There is some secret magic which is for members only he goes through that produces "alert zones" that he puts on maps. These happen to be earthquake prone areas, e.g. Japan and California - almost as if the Sun knows about Earth's tectonic plates and aims CME at them !

    How do you become am member - you pay Ben Davidson money ! That turns Davidson from a crank into a scammer playing on peoples fears of earthquakes to make money.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-06 at 12:49 AM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    It is more than a guess that solar activity influences the Earth's tectonics. There is some secret magic which is for members only he goes through that produces "alert zones" that he puts on maps. These happen to be earthquake prone areas, e.g. Japan and California - almost as if the Sun knows about Earth's tectonic plates and aims CME at them !

    How do you become am member - you pay Ben Davidson money ! That turns Davidson from a crank into a scammer playing on peoples fears of earthquakes to make money.
    You're absolutely right, of course. I should not have used the term 'hypothesis'. It's more a notion, and that's being polite. Scam is quite a bit more accurate.

  5. #65
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    There were no 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the alert zones or anywhere in the world for the last 24 hours. Considering it was 80 percent chance of a 6.0 earthquake it is a modest miss.
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  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    You're absolutely right, of course. I should not have used the term 'hypothesis'. It's more a notion, and that's being polite. Scam is quite a bit more accurate.
    I don't doubt that suspiciousobservers could be a scam. I will always be polite to anyone though. I have seen way to many scientific pronouncements that have later been proven wrong so I don't judge anything to harshly. Life and science are very tricky business.
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  7. #67
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    What would it take to convince you that he's wrong?
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  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I don't doubt that suspiciousobservers could be a scam.
    You missed that Ben Davidson is a lawyer making a living out of conspiracy theory and crank science: How one man turned conspiracy theories and impeding doom into a YouTube empire.
    It is a basically a scam that you are advertising. Science ends up in journals, not on a YouTube channel on advertised on a web site. Davidson is trying to milk as much money as possible by churning out propaganda videos. He is ignoring the fact that decades of earthquake and solar observations exist. A non-crank would analyze that data.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-06 at 09:37 PM.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    You missed that Ben Davidson is a lawyer making a living out of conspiracy theory and crank science: How one man turned conspiracy theories and impeding doom into a YouTube empire.
    It is a basically a scam that you are advertising. Science ends up in journals, not on a YouTube channel on advertised on a web site. Davidson is trying to milk as much money as possible by churning out propaganda videos. He is ignoring the fact that decades of earthquake and solar observations exist. A non-crank would analyze that data.
    You are right Reality Check, real science ends up in journals. With the internet changing everything now, who knows how real science publishing and distribution is happening or evolving. I remember how gravitational waves detection were announced or hinted. Everything is changing.

    That said Ben could very well be a scam artist.
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  10. #70
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    The latest alert from 5 hours ago is below. I would assume it is the same 80 percent chance of greater than 6 earth quake and 40 percent of greater than 7 earth quake.
    I don't like that Ben Davidson doesn't narrow down his predictions every time.

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  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    You are right Reality Check, real science ends up in journals. With the internet changing everything now, who knows how real science publishing and distribution is happening or evolving. I remember how gravitational waves detection were announced or hinted. Everything is changing.
    I personally am old school. Until it is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed journal, I pretty much ignore it. It can be published on-line, but it has to be peer-reviewed.
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  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I personally am old school. Until it is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed journal, I pretty much ignore it. It can be published on-line, but it has to be peer-reviewed.
    Peer review is wonderful. The computer and the internet are just such powerful tool, just the way print was, that who can predict which way things will evolve.
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  13. #73
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    There was a 6.4-6.8 earthquake in Sumatra, I don't know if this qualifies according to Ben Davidson's alert zone or not. I am not sure what the big star is in the area of Indonesia that he posted 6 hours ago.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2...atra/95061976/

    Ben's Quake alert from 6 hours ago.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzAiGmkUQAEm7-g.jpg:large
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  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    There was a 6.4-6.8 earthquake in Sumatra, ...
    Who cares about ignorant and vague guesses from a rather deluded crank? We know that he is deluded because he has attended and presented at least 3 electric universe conferences (EU2014, EU2015 and EU2016) hosted by the Thunderbolts people who are neo-Velikovskians - planets whizzing around to cater for cherry picked myths, comets are rocks, the Grand Canyon was carved by electrical discharges, Saturn used to sit over the north pole and other delusions.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-07 at 12:07 AM.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    There was a 6.4-6.8 earthquake in Sumatra, I don't know if this qualifies according to Ben Davidson's alert zone or not. I am not sure what the big star is in the area of Indonesia that he posted 6 hours ago.
    It's not in the zone. I don't know what that star means either, but there is no red line over Sumatra. To be honest, it's a big exasperating to even try to figure out what he's predicting or not predicting.
    As above, so below

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Who cares about ignorant and vague guesses from a rather deluded crank?
    I thought he was a crank too, but an interesting crank. I posted his alert zones where he had said a 40 percent chance of a 7.0 and a 80 percent chance of a 6.0 He even narrowed down the alert zones to about 1/8 of the actively seismological zones in the world. There was, a 6.3 and 6.8 earthquake in these areas within 2 days. Ben still says that more is coming. The chances of his prediction of two 6.0 earthquakes in a row in his alert zones is about 1/400. If another happens within 24 hours it is about 1/8000.

    The question is, is he a crank or is it just extremely difficult to get new ideas started? KenG seems to be a very smart guy who was trying to get some rather trivial errors corrected, yet he was just viciously attacked. I am just saying that maybe we need some new approaches to disseminating new ideas.

    I'm not sure if Ben Davidson is a crank, but what if there really is a silent conspiracy that makes it difficult to radically change science. Do all the super projects like LHC, neutrinoICE, LIGO, just gobble up all enthusiasm for other ideas and just spit them out? I don't know.
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  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I thought he was a crank too, but an interesting crank.
    An interesting deluded crank is still deluded and not worth wasting your time over. Trusting the numbers about statistics and earthquakes from an ignorant and deluded lawyer is not good.
    Especially when you point out one of his delusions! By purposely restricting his "predictions" magically to earthquake prone regions he increased his change of a random hit. Is a prediction of rain in winter a prediction ?

    Is that "silent conspiracy" another one of Davidson's delusions?
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-07 at 02:48 AM.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Why would we want any earthquake predictions from a lawyer with no expertise in earthquakes?
    Ad hom.

    If it works, who cares what his credentials are.

    That's not to say it works, simply that, as ones who purport rationality, we should stick to judging the evidence, not the person.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Trusting the numbers about statistics and earthquakes from an ignorant and deluded lawyer is not good.
    No trust required. It is a "relatively" simple matter of seeing if his predictions are statistically significant.


    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    By purposely restricting his "predictions" magically to earthquake prone regions he increased his change of a random hit. Is a prediction of rain in winter a prediction ?
    Same faulty logic. See post 53.

    "I can predict when tornados will occur! I can save lives!"
    "Really? Anywhere in the world?"
    "Well, they mostly occur on Toronado Alley and Europe, but..."
    "Bah! What a dumb talent. Now if you told me you could predict them in the Arctic! THAT would be a feat!"

    Again, he's not claiming inexplicable, magic Earthquakes.
    Last edited by DaveC426913; 2016-Dec-07 at 03:12 AM.

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveC426913 View Post
    Ad hom. ...
    It is a statement of fact.
    Ben Davidson is a lawyer (a JD) who has no experience in science or mathematics. There is evidence of ignorance and denial of science, e.g. denying climate change and believing in the Electric Universe nonsense to the extent of presenting at 3 EU conferences. Working astronomers do not present at the EU conferences but mythologists and anti-GR cranks do!

    The question is whether it is a waste of time doing our own analysis of his results by trolling through his tweets and YouTube videos? The answer is yes - this is just another Internet physics crank.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    Why would we want any earthquake predictions from a lawyer with no expertise in earthquakes?
    Experts in earthquakes have been looking a relationship between solar activity and earthquakes because there were reasonable physical mechanisms that might have an influence, e.g. increases in solar wind might make the atmosphere expand which would affect Earth's rotations and put stress on fault lines. No significant correlation has been found.
    Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

    Does the sun trigger earthquakes?
    Davidson's method is secret but we do know that the Sun does not know about Earth's tectonic plates and does not direct its activity at earthquake-prone zones.

    Being a conspiracy theorist throws more doubts on his ability to produce actual science since they tend to deny science.
    How one man turned conspiracy theories and impeding doom into a YouTube empire.
    He also holds forth on common conspiracy theories about Agenda 21 (a United Nations sustainability plan often cited as a cover for a coming New World Order), chemtrails (jet aircraft trails said to secretly contain dangerous chemicals), and global warming. In a typical video, he claims that global warming isnít happening, and also that the government is secretly spraying chemicals into the air to stop global warming. And that another ice age is around the corner.
    That article links to a 2015 Davidson video on predicting earthquakes using OLR anomalies along with "earthspots and space weather". This is Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)
    Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) is the energy radiating from the Earth as infrared radiation at low energy to Space.
    Variation (anomalies) in OLR are basically weather, e.g. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR): AVHRR
    OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) is a measure of the amount of energy emitted to space by earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere. As such, it is a critical component of the earth's radiation budget. In a different context, OLR values are often used as a proxy for convection in tropical and subtropical regions since cloud top temperatures (colder is higher) are an indicator of cloud height. OLR observations are made via the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument aboard the NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The raw ascending and descending swath data have been spatially and temporarally interpolated onto grids to facilitate use.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-07 at 03:45 AM.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    It is a statement of fact.
    "The US Canada border is the longest undefended border in the world" is also a fact.
    And is just as germaine to the veracity of the earthquake predictions.

  21. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveC426913 View Post
    And is just as germaine to the veracity of the earthquake predictions.
    That Ben Davidson is a lawyer with no expertise in science, a climate change denier, associates with ignorant and even deluded cranks is germane to the veracity of Ben Davidson's claims to have valid predictions. The answer is that we cannot trust him because he has no expertise ands denies basic science.
    It is the simple enough - if you wanted to evaluate a medical condition would you ask a plumber or a doctor? Would you go to a homeopath or a doctor? If we want to look at earthquake predictions we go to experts in earthquake prediction, not Internet physics cranks.

    But if you want to waste your time doing the science and math Davidson is unable to publish, go ahead, DaveC426913.
    Last edited by Reality Check; 2016-Dec-07 at 03:55 AM.

  22. #82
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    If he has expertise, it's up to him to prove it. But I note that my question wasn't answered--what would it take to convince those who give him the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't deserve it?
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  23. #83
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    Law school actually does train you to do research and sift fact from fiction. I think the guy's a crank but his being a law school graduate works to his favor, not against.

  24. #84
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    Yesterday there was a 6.5 earthquake in Indonesia. Ben Davidson states it was not one that his model predicted. Good for him for acknowledging this. Personally it seems that the earthquakes did uptick during the corona hole facing earth, but I don't think Ben's model and his predictions are specific enough to analyze well. The following are his alert zones for today. If he still believes that there is a 80 percent chance that there will be a greater than 6 earthquake or 40 percent chance for a greater than 7 earthquake, I would like to know over what time period each day, so it can be analyzed. That he doesn't say this every time on his model predictions is disturbing. Here is the alert zones for today.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzAiGmkUQAEm7-g.jpg:large
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  25. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by geonuc View Post
    Law school actually does train you to do research and sift fact from fiction. I think the guy's a crank but his being a law school graduate works to his favor, not against.
    I agree with you that law school would be an asset for him. Many lawyers are brilliant and meticulous. With all the real time sharing of data from government satellites observing the sun, many people have the opportunity to look for correlations with many different phenomena. I think all one would really need for these correlations would be a good understanding of statistics and the available data. If Ben Davidson's group stumbled on a good correlation, good for them. It is the information age.
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  26. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Yesterday there was a 6.5 earthquake in Indonesia. Ben Davidson states it was not one that his model predicted. Good for him for acknowledging this.
    He gets praise for admitting a documented nonprediction? You seem to be easily impressed.

    I hereby state: I did not predict the location of any 6+ earthquakes in the last 24 hours.
    0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 ...
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  27. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
    He gets praise for admitting a documented nonprediction? You seem to be easily impressed.

    I hereby state: I did not predict the location of any 6+ earthquakes in the last 24 hours.
    I mean, it's marginally better than a retroactive claim of prediction?
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  28. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    That Ben Davidson is a lawyer with no expertise in science, a climate change denier, associates with ignorant and even deluded cranks is germane to the veracity of Ben Davidson's claims to have valid predictions.
    You're missing the point. If he's publishing his predictions, they can be verified.
    We don't have to trust anything. We don't have to know or care anything about him.

    Either his predictions are statistically significant or they are not. It's as simple as that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    The answer is that we cannot trust him
    Who - other than you - said anything about trust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
    It is the simple enough - if you wanted to evaluate a medical condition would you ask a plumber or a doctor? Would you go to a homeopath or a doctor?
    Faulty analogy. Those are all examples of people whom we must trust to do their job.
    An accurate Earthquake prediction stands on its own merits. (If born out, of course.)

    The rationalist's cry is not
    "Who are you and where's your Scientist's membership card?"
    but
    "Show us your predictions. If - by some miracle - they're statistically significant, let's talk."

  29. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveC426913 View Post
    You're missing the point. If he's publishing his predictions, they can be verified.
    We don't have to trust anything. We don't have to know or care anything about him.

    Either his predictions are statistically significant or they are not. It's as simple as that.


    Who - other than you - said anything about trust?


    Faulty analogy. Those are all examples of people whom we must trust to do their job.
    An accurate Earthquake prediction stands on its own merits. (If born out, of course.)

    The rationalist's cry is not
    "Who are you and where's your Scientist's membership card?"
    but
    "Show us your predictions. If - by some miracle - they're statistically significant, let's talk."
    I like your reasoning Dave.
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    The reason I like Dave's thinking is because I have seen over and over again, that although scientists are great people, we are all subject to human emotion and all have the tendency to follow the prevailing wisdom. The following is an article about a problem that could be solved, but wasn't because of the following of prevailing wisdom. This is in a way similar to KenG's ATM. He was trying to correct a problem in the literature, but unable to do so for whatever reason, I don't understand.

    http://phys.org/news/2016-12-discove...-gasoline.html

    New discovery may lead to the development of super premium gasoline
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