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Thread: How long until we colonize the moon (continued)

  1. #31
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    https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/leag2017/pdf/5016.pdf

    The Future Lunar Flora Colony

    Goel, E. G.; Guven, U. G.
    10/2017

    A constructional design for the primary establishment for a lunar colony using the micrometeorite rich soil is proposed. It highlights the potential of lunar regolith combined with Earth technology for water and oxygen for human outposts on the Moon.

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    https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/leag2017/pdf/5015.pdf

    Interaction of Space Radiation with Agriculture on the Moon

    Guven, U. G.; Goel, E. G.
    10/2017

    This paper proposes to understand the effects of GCR and SEP on the plants and agriculture, which is the primary step to colonization at any celestial site. This paper is dedicated to achieve this understanding to aid plantation missions on the Moon.

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    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1174L

    A possible space VLBI constellation utilizing the stable orbits around the TLPs in the Earth-Moon system.

    Liu, Bin; Tang, Jingshi; Hou, Xiyun
    07/2016

    Current studies indicate that there are stable orbits around but far away from the triangular libration points. Two special quasi-periodic orbits around each triangular libration points L4 and L5 in the Earth-Moon system perturbed by Sun are gain [[?]], and the stable orbits discussed in this work are ideal places for space colonies because no orbit control is needed. These stable orbits can also be used as nominal orbits for space VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) stations. The two stations can also form baselines with stations on the Earth and the Moon, or with stations located around another TLP. Due to the long distance between the stations, the observation precision can be greatly enhanced compared with the VLBI stations on the Earth. Such a VLBI constellation not only can advance the radio astronomy, but also can be used as a navigation system for human activities in the Earth-Moon system and even in the solar system. This paper will focus on the navigation constellation coverage issues, and the orbit determination accuracy problems within the Earth-Moon sys-tem and interplanetary space.

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    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AcAau.107..196M

    Determination of temperature variation on lunar surface and subsurface for habitat analysis and design

    Malla, Ramesh B.; Brown, Kevin M.
    02/2015

    The ambient environmental factors present on the lunar surface pose some of the most difficult challenges for the success of a long-term human settlement on the Moon. Aside from the dangerous radiation levels and hypervelocity micrometeoroid impacts, the equatorial temperature on the surface of the Moon can range from 102.4 K to 387.1 K. These extremes pose a variety of complications like thermal expansion and contraction, which can, in turn, alter the static, dynamic, and frequency response of a structure. This paper first presents the analytical study of the surface and subsurface thermal/heat flow environments of a potential habitat site located at the Equator of the Moon using a general equation that was developed based on the thermodynamic principle of heat flow to determine the temperature variation/gradient with time as well as depth. This method was then applied, with appropriate modifications, to determine the temperature variation with time and through depth of a 1-m thick regolith shielding layer surrounding a lunar structure. The solution to the general equation was determined through the use of the fourth-order Runge-Kutta technique of numerical integration. The analysis results showed that the outermost layer of regolith fluff has very strong insulating capabilities causing the temperature to drop 132.3 K from the maximum daytime magnitude of 387.1 K within the first 30 cm at which point it then remains constant with increasing depth. At night, the temperature increases from the minimum magnitude of 102.4 K to 254.8 K within the outermost 30 cm. When considering a layer of regolith shielding atop a lunar habitat, the added albedo radiation input from the adjacent lunar surface to the structure increased the maximum daytime surface temperature to 457 K (about 70 K higher than the lunar surface temperature) and displayed a drop of 138 K within the first 30 cm depth of regolith cover. The minimum temperature at night increased 80.3 K over the surface temperature to reach 182.7 K while displaying an increase of 137.2 K through the outermost 30 cm. In general, throughout the lunar cycle, it was observed that at a fixed point in time, as the depth within the regolith increases, the temperature variation throughout the lunar cycle decreases and the temperature ultimately remains constant beyond a certain depth (observed to be approximately 30 cm). The framework of this study, which was completed considering a habitat at the lunar equator, can also be used at different locations of the Moon to study their adequacy for long-term colonization missions.

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    https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/ippw2014/pdf/8008.pdf

    A Lunar Mission to Create a Constellation of Space Solar Power Satellites as a Precursor to Industrial Establishment, Resource Extraction, and Colonization

    Bergsrud, C. M.; Straub, J.
    06/2014

    This paper provides an overview of a system of space solar power satellites (SSPSs) to service lunar science, mining and manufacturing operations. The SSPS system will provide power to enable a new paradigm of lunar and Moon-based exploration.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  2. #32
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    http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/2014cosp...40E1515K

    Feasibility of lunar Helium-3 mining

    Kleinschneider, Andreas; Van Overstraeten, Dmitry; Van der Reijnst, Roy; Van Hoorn, Niels; Lamers, Marvin; Hubert, Laurent; Dijk, Bert; Blangé, Joey; Hogeveen, Joel; De Boer, Lennaert; Noomen, Ron
    00/2014

    With fossil fuels running out and global energy demand increasing, the need for alternative energy sources is apparent. Nuclear fusion using Helium-3 may be a solution. Helium-3 is a rare isotope on Earth, but it is abundant on the Moon. Throughout the space community lunar Helium-3 is often cited as a major reason to return to the Moon. Despite the potential of lunar Helium-3 mining, little research has been conducted on a full end-to-end mission. This abstract presents the results of a feasibility study conducted by students from Delft University of Technology. The goal of the study was to assess whether a continuous end-to-end mission to mine Helium-3 on the Moon and return it to Earth is a viable option for the future energy market. The set requirements for the representative end-to-end mission were to provide 10% of the global energy demand in the year 2040. The mission elements have been selected with multiple trade-offs among both conservative and novel concepts. A mission architecture with multiple decoupled elements for each transportation segment (LEO, transfer, lunar surface) was found to be the best option. It was found that the most critical element is the lunar mining operation itself. To supply 10% of the global energy demand in 2040, 200 tons of Helium-3 would be required per year. The resulting regolith mining rate would be 630 tons per second, based on an optimistic concentration of 20 ppb Helium-3 in lunar regolith. Between 1,700 to 2,000 Helium-3 mining vehicles would be required, if using University of Wisconsin’s Mark III miner. The required heating power, if mining both day and night, would add up to 39 GW. The resulting power system mass for the lunar operations would be in the order of 60,000 to 200,000 tons. A fleet of three lunar ascent/descent vehicles and 22 continuous-thrust vehicles for orbit transfer would be required. The costs of the mission elements have been spread out over expected lifetimes. The resulting profits from Helium-3 fusion were calculated using a predicted minimum energy price in 2040 of 30.4 Euro/MWh. Annual costs are between 427.7 to 1,347.9 billion Euro, with annual expected profit ranging from -724.0 to 260.0 billion Euro. Due to the large scale of the mission, it has also been evaluated for providing 0.1% and 1% of the global energy demand in 2040. For 1%, the annual costs are 45.6 to 140.3 billion Euro and the expected annual profits are -78.0 to 23.1 billion Euro. For 0.1%, the annual costs are 7.7 to 20.5 billion Euro. The annual expected profits are -14.3 to -0.8 billion Euro. Feasibility has been addressed in three aspects. Technically, the mission is extremely challenging and complex. However, most required technologies exist or could be developed within a reasonable time span. From a political and legal perspective, the current international treaties hardly provide any framework for a lunar mining operation. Financially, the mission only produces a net profit in the best case, and only for medium- to large-scale operations, which require a very large initial investment. To make lunar Helium-3 usage possible, further research should concentrate on the mining operation and costs of fusion plants, as their impact by far outranks all other mission elements. Different transportation concepts may be investigated nevertheless. Many - not only technical - challenges concerning Helium-3 mining are still to be addressed. Although only a starting point for further investigations, this study shows that, despite popular claims, lunar Helium-3 is unsuitable to provide a significant percentage of the global energy demand in 2040.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  3. #33
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    http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/2018AcAau.146..161T

    Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

    Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David
    05/2018

    Many global catastrophic risks are threatening human civilization, and a number of ideas have been suggested for preventing or surviving them. However, if these interventions fail, society could preserve information about the human race and human DNA samples in the hopes that the next civilization on Earth will be able to reconstruct Homo sapiens and our culture. This requires information preservation of an order of magnitude of 100 million years, a little-explored topic thus far. It is important that a potential future civilization discovers this information as early as possible, thus a beacon should accompany the message in order to increase visibility. The message should ideally contain information about how humanity was destroyed, perhaps including a continuous recording until the end. This could help the potential future civilization to survive. The best place for long-term data storage is under the surface of the Moon, with the beacon constructed as a complex geometric figure drawn by small craters or trenches around a central point. There are several cost-effective options for sending the message as opportunistic payloads on different planned landers.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  4. #34
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    The article is about three of the X-price contestants who still are aiming for the moon. There is also mention of one more rover trying to get to the moon - Chile’s AngelicvM rover.

    http://www.spacetechasia.com/updates...dia-and-japan/

    Updates on GLXP teams from Israel, India and Japan
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  5. #35
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    RIP Paul Spudis.The go to the moon crowd, has lost one of the strongest advocates for the US to go back to the moon.

    https://spacenews.com/lunar-scientis...s-passes-away/

    Paul Spudis, a planetary scientist who devoted his career to both the study of the moon and initiatives to return humans there, passed away Aug. 29.

    Spudis, 66, was a senior staff scientist at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, having previously served there as its deputy director. He also worked for several years at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in its planetary exploration group.

    NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine broke the news during a meeting of the NASA Advisory Council (NAC) at the Ames Research Center. “He was a guy who lived his entire life really focused on why the moon is important to humanity,” he said, his voice cracking.

    “I think each one of us probably has memories of Paul coming to our offices,” said Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, at the meeting. “He was a very passionate person about the moon and really wanted the best.”
    Last edited by selvaarchi; 2018-Aug-31 at 01:12 AM.
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  6. #36
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    https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lu...8/pdf/5007.pdf

    THE LUNAR INTERIOR AS A SOURCE OF POLAR WATER

    G. Jeffrey Taylor, David A. Kring, and Debra H. Needham
    2018

    Studies of the sources of water (H, OH, H2O) in lunar polar deposits have focused on H de-rived from the solar wind or deposited by hydrous impactors. Since the discovery of water in lunar magmatic products, volcanic eruptions are clearly viable sources for volatiles. Such eruptions deposited substantial volumes of H2O and other volatiles into the lunar exo-sphere, possibly leading to the formation of an atmosphere with pressures up to 0.06 kPa [1]. Here we focus on water trapped in the lunar crust that might be released by lunar tectonic and impact processes as a possible long-term source for water to the surface system.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

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    "Human Exploration Sites on Moon Blueprinted"

    https://www.leonarddavid.com/human-e...n-blueprinted/

    An international team of lunar researchers has blueprinted an exploration scenario for humans and robots to investigate five sites on the Moon. The detailed plan for human lunar surface missions is shaped by science, strategies for surface campaigns, and a Mars-forward perspective.

    The proposed missions focus on the Moon’s south polar region and target five sites of diverse scientific interest: Malapert massif, the South Pole/Shackleton crater, Schrödinger Basin, Antoniadi crater, and South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin.

    This study is tied to release of the 2018 Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). The focus of the study is how best to explore the south polar region of the Moon, a region that has not been visited by any human missions, yet exhibits a multitude of scientifically important locations – the investigation of which will address long standing questions in lunar research.
    I am because we are
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  8. #38
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    "Moon Craters Named After Apollo 8"

    https://www.leonarddavid.com/moon-cr...fter-apollo-8/

    That crater-pocked Moon has two new geological features: Anders’ Earthrise and 8 Homeward.

    The Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature of the International Astronomical Union has today officially approved the naming of two craters on the Moon to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 8 mission.
    I am because we are
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    "Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin Is Designing a 'Large Lunar Lander'"

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/spa...-lunar-lander/

    Jeff Bezos' aerospace company Blue Origin is currently designing a "large lunar lander" called Blue Moon, according to a statement released on Tuesday.

    In order to establish its lofty goal of transitioning humanity into a species that can "live and work" in space, Blue Origin says:

    "The next logical step in this path is a return to the Moon. To do this we need reusable access to the lunar surface and its resources. We’re in the conceptual design phase of a large lunar lander that will provide that access called Blue Moon."
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    Airbus and others (including Blue Origin) announced a formal "race to the moon" on Monday (Oct. 1) at the International Astronautical Congress in Bremen, Germany.

    https://www.themoonrace.org/en/challenges/themoonrace

    The application period will open early 2019.

    Selected participants will be announced at the International Astronautical Congress 2019, at which point the competition will officially start.

    Details on monetary prizes will be announced with the opening of the applications period.
    Selden

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    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4

    General overview of moon colonization, with art and timeline. Good read, let's see how realistic this is.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

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    Doesn't look like we're going to make it to me.
    We're letting the crisis come too soon.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Squink View Post
    Doesn't look like we're going to make it to me.
    We're letting the crisis come too soon.
    What is the crisis?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4

    General overview of moon colonization, with art and timeline. Good read, let's see how realistic this is.
    Hello Roger,

    I am rather skeptical of Lunar or Martian outposts so it's not surprising I am not as impressed with this article as you are.

    The enthusiasm for a lunar station by researchers is overstated and often. Robotic missions are actually planned and these machines are evolving rapidly. What value people will bring to this endeavour, whether exploring or exploiting and at what cost is questionable.

    Most of the technology is a dream. Just like the drawings of Mars cities, underground lunar habitats and LED gardens are still a bunch of ideas being tossed about.

    I further doubt the timeline as (ISTM) space based tourism will be the main driver for development of manned space technology.

    My $0.02

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Squink View Post
    Doesn't look like we're going to make it to me.
    We're letting the crisis come too soon.
    Hello Squink,

    I too am not sure which crisis will come too soon.

    Regardless, throughout history, intelligent and caring people have predicted 'the crisis' and humanity's demise. Luckily, they've been wrong.

    Cheers,

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    LED gardening is a multi million dollar business.

    What is ISTM?
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    Hello Roger,

    I am rather skeptical of Lunar or Martian outposts so it's not surprising I am not as impressed with this article as you are.

    The enthusiasm for a lunar station by researchers is overstated and often. Robotic missions are actually planned and these machines are evolving rapidly. What value people will bring to this endeavour, whether exploring or exploiting and at what cost is questionable.

    Most of the technology is a dream. Just like the drawings of Mars cities, underground lunar habitats and LED gardens are still a bunch of ideas being tossed about.

    I further doubt the timeline as (ISTM) space based tourism will be the main driver for development of manned space technology.

    My $0.02
    I agree with you down the line. It was a good read, but I was not so much impressed with the article as dubious of its accuracy. It strikes me that there's a lot of wishful thinking going on, cheery optimism in the face of facts that state getting back to the Moon and getting to Mars will not only be tough, but STAYING there will be nigh impossible because of radiation, biological damage, etc. I can't believe in this no-problems vision anymore. Don't get me wrong, I've been a big space fan since I was six years old in 1961. It's just that the more we know, the harder it looks. If we actually send astronauts to another world to build the colony right after they land, the astronauts will all die from perfectly obvious causes (e.g., radiation, sickness from mutated microorganism, etc.). Does that radiation shielding really work? Gonna have to test it first, and thoroughly, in place, where you want to place it.

    So, no, not so impressed with the article. Should have been less sarcastic, my fault. We WILL get there, I do believe that, but it will take a much longer time, cost far more, and involve many more deaths that we currently think it will.

    On the other hand, once the first asteroid gets mined by robots and someone becomes a trillionaire...
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2018-Oct-28 at 04:56 PM.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  18. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    If we actually send astronauts to another world to build the colony right after they land, the astronauts will all die from perfectly obvious causes...
    Humans will probably not be building a base in person. Why send a human to do a robot's job? We would need to prepare the ground for our arrival. Test not only rad shielding, but pressure, life support, airlock function, etc. Plus fuel synthesis for returns.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    On the other hand, once the first asteroid gets mined by robots and someone becomes a trillionaire...
    Now we're talking. Asteroids are more accessible, and have a wider variety of materials available.

    The ability to build an infrastructure in space from low-G bodies, will be far more effective at colonizing space than actually living on moons and Mars. We will be able to make orbital habitats with full 1G spin instead of being at the mercy of Moms Nature's paltry offerings of gravity on other Solar System bodies. And with an exponential robotic industrial economy, adding radiation shielding will be easier too. (Not to mention how it can benefit us here on Earth.)

    Not going to happen soon by any means. But it's a surer path to a permanent Solar System population than Moon bases.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  19. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Humans will probably not be building a base in person. Why send a human to do a robot's job? We would need to prepare the ground for our arrival. Test not only rad shielding, but pressure, life support, airlock function, etc. Plus fuel synthesis for returns.
    I would like to see talk from companies working on making robotic lunar bulldozers and front-shovel diggers.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  20. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    LED gardening is a multi million dollar business.

    What is ISTM?
    Yes, you are right. But LED gardening in space or on the moon or Mars has not been done at levels needed for sustenance. It will require much trial and error.

    And to paraphrase Roger E. Moore, I am 62 and have heard the overstated promise of space for decades. I am still an enthusiast. I am even impressed at how space access is changing rapidly.

    ISTM = It Seems To Me

    Cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    I would like to see talk from companies working on making robotic lunar bulldozers and front-shovel diggers.
    We have robotic mining vehicles on Earth, but they require human maintenance and repair. We would need to take ourselves out of that loop. Definitely a non-trivial challenge.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    Yes, you are right. But LED gardening in space or on the moon or Mars has not been done at levels needed for sustenance. It will require much trial and error.
    Most definitely. And it's mostly research that could be done right here on Earth using today's technology.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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