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Thread: New Model Predicts That We’re Probably the Only Advanced Civilization in the Observab

  1. #1
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    New Model Predicts That We’re Probably the Only Advanced Civilization in the Observab

    According to a new study by three famed scientists, the Fermi Paradox may have a simple resolution - humanity is the only intelligent species in our galaxy!
    The post New Model Predicts That We’re Probably the Only Advanced Civilization in the Observable Universe appeared first on Universe Today.


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  2. #2
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    I'm sorry, but two of my pet peeves are the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox, because of the what-ifs. As for the latter, let me say that Enrico Fermi was a great scientist, but he may have lapsed into wishful thinking about inevitability. We know of only one technologically advanced civilization (us) and we have not even come close to creating a mobile space habitat that could sustain some of us for interstellar voyages. An engineering study about how it could be done in principle is still a long way from making it happen. On what basis can we conclude that it has to be inevitable?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hornblower
    I'm sorry, but two of my pet peeves are the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox, because of the what-ifs. As for the latter, let me say that Enrico Fermi was a great scientist, but he may have lapsed into wishful thinking about inevitability. We know of only one technologically advanced civilization (us) and we have not even come close to creating a mobile space habitat that could sustain some of us for interstellar voyages. An engineering study about how it could be done in principle is still a long way from making it happen. On what basis can we conclude that it has to be inevitable?
    The scope of 'technologically advanced civilisation' can even be further constrained down to just address the emergence of the intelligence needed to build one.

    For eg, in my travels, I have encountered the argument that:

    i) the only type of life which can be conceived of as having so-called 'credibility', is the in-common carbon-based type inhabiting Earth (ie: life as we know it).

    So, given this, and that:

    ii) the quality of: 'intelligence' has already been selected for, in filling a particular niche within our evolving biosphere and;
    iii) Evolution itself, is virtually inevitable wherever error-prone self replicators get underway in a resource limited landscape,
    then:
    iv) at some stage, 'intelligence' will again arise in some way, shape, or form.

    Personally, I find this argument as being one which takes Evolution beyond its terrestrially-based (evidenced) status of: scientific theory, by then assuming its Universal applicability. Ie: it thus becomes an untested, physical, universally applicable 'truth', and therefore the abstracted generalised qualiity of: (human) 'intelligence' filling a niche, must also therefore be a universal 'truth'.

    Whilst the argument might be internally consistent, (but flawed by the assumed 'truth' of its premise as described above), there is no evidence supporting it from beyond the Earth's own biosphere and evolutionary history. Its what we don't know about how 'life' elsewhere might evolve, that re-introduces uncertainty and brings Evolution back to its empirical basis and its actual status of being a very sound, terestrially sourced, scientific theory.

    This is the closest (but still flawed) argument I've personally come up against, which I think could conceivably permit contemplating the 'inevitability' you query above(?)

  4. #4
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    Something else to look at.

    It may be that a world that is super violent might just be the organic chemistry lab needed to start life--but not sustain extant life.

    And Vice Versa.

    A calm, seemingly pleasant planet where life might be deposited may never have been violent enough to have spawned life to begin with.

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