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Thread: Trends in human violence

  1. #31
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    It's like an infection spreading.

    According to the research, violence can actually be treated like a disease, and it responds to treatment like a disease.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK190337/
    http://cureviolence.org/understand-v...lent-behavior/
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  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    And that's more the root of current overprotection IMO, than fear for the child. Fear of social backlash.
    Social, heck--legal. People have had their children taken away for giving them the freedom the parents had as children. Mind you, some parents who are just parenting the way they were parented are continuing a cycle of abuse, but that's not what I'm talking about.
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  3. #33
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    Yup. I was a "latchkey kid" as the term went at the time. I walked (in the dark) to the bus, walked home from the bus. No home pickups, no supervision, no one home. Today that would be considered child negligence. I'd be chipped.
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  4. #34
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    Back to the topic... is war predictable?


    https://phys.org/news/2018-10-method...nt-events.html

    Method predicts reliable patterns in violent events occurring within wars and terrorism
    October 18, 2018, Royal Holloway, University of London

    A new paper written by academics at Royal Holloway and George Washington University, predicts reliable patterns in violent events occurring within wars and terrorism, regardless of geography, ethnicity and religion.

    The paper, "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event-size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," published by PLOS ONE, is by Royal Holloway's Professor Michael Spagat, independent researcher, Stijn van Weezel and Neil F. Johnson from George Washington University. The paper examines 273 armed conflicts and 60 terrorist campaigns with the goal of gaining greater understanding of the ways humans fight with each other.

    The team can predict with reasonably accuracy the mixtures of events of different sizes, for example, the number of events killing 10 or more people compared to the number of events killing 20 or more people.

    The mix of violent events of different sizes looks similar across the full range of modern wars and terrorist campaigns. In fact, it is possible to make good predictions on the distributions of event sizes for wars on one continent based only on event size data taken from another continent.
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  5. #35
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    I haven’t looked at it carefully, but I wonder if it has something to do with Zipf’s law.


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  6. #36
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    there is good evidence it seems that in the hunter gatherer phase we wiped out many large and medium animal species as we expanded our territory plus the other branches of homo including neanderthals although we carry their DNA. For example when Sapiens reached australia 40 to 45000 years ago there were many unique large animals and birds in the fossil record after thousands of years of isolated evolution but we soon killed them all off. Then in the farming phase our population expanded rapidly thanks to that food efficiency but we also started caring about property and ownership. Farmers allowed cities to form and with cities no end of inter city violence. Since our DNA was not changed much in the last 10,000 years I guess we are still capable of extreme violence and tribal violence where our personal safety is made worse for the sake of the tribe. But then we learned to negotiate with language over the same long period and that helps if we use the same one!
    Last edited by profloater; 2018-Nov-05 at 06:40 PM. Reason: typos
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  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gillianren View Post
    Social, heck--legal. People have had their children taken away for giving them the freedom the parents had as children. Mind you, some parents who are just parenting the way they were parented are continuing a cycle of abuse, but that's not what I'm talking about.
    When I went to elementary school, bus service wasn’t provided for children living less than a mile walking distance from school (I think it was 1.5 miles for high school). I think some school districts now do bus transportation for students literally next door to the school (suburban districts are probably the worst offenders in this regard; some urban districts don’t provide in-district school buses for high school students; they get transit passes).


    I remember an interview NPR aired a couple of years ago. A primatologist, who summered in Vermont, talked to a bunch of his summer neighbors and got permission to observe children. When he started, it wasn’t that unusual for small children — five or six — to be outside from early in the morning to sunset, wandering several miles from their homes. Thirty years later, it was unusual for teenagers to go as far as a mile.

    It’s not as if the risk of child kidnapping has increased — it hasn’t — it’s that the perception of risk has become much, much worse than the reality.

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  8. #38
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    That's sad.

    My early life was spontaneous, free range, analog or unplugged.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by publiusr View Post
    That's sad.

    My early life was spontaneous, free range, analog or unplugged.
    Same here. I was raised like a cat - let out in the morning and let back in when I got hungry. Mom figured as long as I had a stomach I would find my way back. Quite often I didn't have to even enter the house as the sandwich was waiting for me at a table on the back patio.

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