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Thread: What do you think is the most likely explanation for the Fermi paradox?

  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    The link was already given in post 410.
    Cosmocrazy's documentary?
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  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Cosmocrazy's documentary?
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
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  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
    Cosmocrazy said in post #404:
    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    I was watching a documentary on abiogenesis, interestingly there is not enough evidence to make any definitive conclusion on the odds of it occurring and developing into intelligent life. They went on to say that some studies suggest the odds could be as little as 1 in 1027 which means there could be significantly less chance of life ever developing into intelligent life than there are stars in the observable universe.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Cosmocrazy said in post #404:
    Got it. There were kind of two threads going on in parallel, and I got mixed up.
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  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I'm sorry, I don't understand. Cosmocrazy was (in my understanding) giving their description of the paper that was mentioned in post 410. I'm not sure what you are asking for a link to. But perhaps I am misunderstanding and Cosmorazy was talking about something else. Perhaps they can clarify.
    Yes I was referring to the documentary I watched which I will try and find a link to it, it was a programme I watched a while back on one of the science channels on Sky but I can't recall what the name of the actual programme was or what sort of date it was filmed. But the link in post #410 is what caught my attention and prompted me to post about the documentary since it was basically the same approach as this.

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    But the link in post #410 is what caught my attention and prompted me to post about the documentary since it was basically the same approach as this.
    "Inspired by actual events"
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  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    "Inspired by actual events"
    Yes, I'm intrigued by just what factors and how many are required for the universe being able to evolve to a point where it is self aware in the form of life like humans. When you start to think about the factors involved in us ever existing it starts to blow your mind and you soon realise that the odds of us ever existing is extremely low, so low in fact some would consider it a miracle.

  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmocrazy View Post
    Yes, I'm intrigued by just what factors and how many are required for the universe being able to evolve to a point where it is self aware in the form of life like humans. When you start to think about the factors involved in us ever existing it starts to blow your mind and you soon realise that the odds of us ever existing is extremely low, so low in fact some would consider it a miracle.
    I think that the observable Universe is just a tiny speck of what's out there, far beyond our light horizon. The number of stars may well be uncountable by our current math. So I'm not sure I'd call it a miracle, just trial and error on unimaginable scales.

    Unfortunately those same scales would also preclude unrelated minds ever meeting, too separated in time and space. It's my view that we'll probably not encounter any other thinking beings not of our own origin. I'd love to be wrong though!

    ADDED: I mean, recognizably thinking. We may very well discover complex life that does something like thinking, but not close enough to communicate meaningfully. Not really minds, by whatever the definition of that is.
    Last edited by Noclevername; 2019-Jun-14 at 02:24 PM.
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  9. #429
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I think that the observable Universe is just a tiny speck of what's out there, far beyond our light horizon. The number of stars may well be uncountable by our current math.
    Naively, I would say that if it is finite, it surely is countable by our current math. All you need to do is add zeroes. If itís infinite, then you canít count it.


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  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Unfortunately those same scales would also preclude unrelated minds ever meeting, too separated in time and space. It's my view that we'll probably not encounter any other thinking beings not of our own origin. I'd love to be wrong though!
    I basically feel the same way there. The scales are just so large compared to what we are used to. Sometimes people compare it to crossing the oceans, but the vastness is really on a different scale.


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  11. #431
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    We should never have invented parsecs and light years. When something is only a one or two digit number of units away, it makes it sound close. If we had kept using only miles and kilometers, we wouldn't forget how far away the stars are.

  12. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by swampyankee View Post
    Since I'm not a statistician, could somebody quantify the probability of abiogenesis if we find, say, solid evidence of an independent start of life on Mars?
    I can't put a number on it. But it will be nearer to 100% than 1 in 10^27.

    BTW, we should hope there is no independently-started life on Mars. If there is, it means the great filter could be ahead of us instead of behind us.

    Then again I am just waiting for all the arguments when some life is eventually found on Mars. How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck View Post
    Maybe natural selection removes the desire that people have to explore and colonize once they've populated their entire planet. Such a desire would no longer be beneficial with nowhere left to go except into space which is so expensive that it might as well not be there for most of the population. So even after they're able to move out into space, none of them cares to do so.
    At some point in the future these things will happen:

    1. Human lifespan extended to centuries or more

    2. Humans can be grown from embryos artificially and raised by robots

    3. The sun will expand into a red giant.

    All will make it more attractive to move out into space.

  14. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    How do you prove that it started independently of Earth life?
    DNA analysis can often determine common ancestry and compatibility in Earth life. We share a good fraction of our genome with even simple bacteria and archaea. If it isn't related to us, it won't have alleles in common. Independent life could also use different amino acids, we have only 20 while many more exist.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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