Not good at sharing, but here goes. Am 65, have high blood pressure + diabetes II, etc. About 2 weeks ago caught a bad sore throat. Could not be seen...
And yet the empirical evidence says you are wrong. Most recent problems SpaceX have encountered have been with newly made boosters and second stages....
I think bath tub Theory applies to mass produced components which allow a probability to be measured. For example bathtub theory is extensively used...