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Swift
2010-Oct-07, 09:52 PM
Laboratory Equipments e-newsletter had a review of a new book (http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/News-end-of-the-world-calendar-may-be-off-100710.aspx) that examines the data that correlates our calendar to the Mayan calendar.


The Maya prophecy predicting the 2012 end of the world may be off by 50 to 100 years or more, according to a new book.

For nearly half a century, Maya scholars have relied on a fixed numerical value called the GMT constant as a means of correlating the dates on the ancient Maya calendar with those on the Gregorian—or modern—calendar.

Gerardo Aldana, associate professor at the Univ. of California at Santa Barbara, challenges the accepted Gregorian dates of all Classic Mayan historical events, including the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it 2012 prophecies in Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World, the second in a series edited by John Steele, associate professor of Egyptology and Ancient West Asian Studies at Brown Univ..

Aldana’s research, in general, focuses on reconstructing Mayan astronomical practices, which for the most part can be recovered from their applications.


The early work of Goodman, Martinez, Morley, and Spinden put heavy emphasis on the dates recovered from colonial documents written in Mayan languages and recorded in the Latin alphabet, Aldana says. “Thompson did a much more thorough job of addressing as much data as possible.”

Aldana’s article centers, for the most part, on the work of Floyd Lounsbury, an American linguist, anthropologist, and Mayanist scholar and epigrapher who examined the problem of the GMT constant by focusing on the data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a combination calendar and almanac that charts specific dates related to the movements of Venus.

“Astronomy had been considered in the past, but none had put the emphasis on the Venus Table as much as Lounsbury did,” Aldana explains.
I know I mentioned before that the GMT correlation is only one of several, though probably the most widely accepted. Interesting to read some scholarly examination of it.

I recommend reading the whole review article.

And by the way, the thread title is a little bit of a joke. I have as much concern about 2062 as I have about 2012. ;)

Tobin Dax
2010-Oct-07, 10:08 PM
That's a shame. The Vulcans can't help us until 2063.

R.A.F.
2010-Oct-07, 10:11 PM
I have as much concern about 2062 as I have about 2012. ;)

Really?...in 2012, I'll only be 2 years older than I am now. In 2062 (if I were to survive that long), I'd be 108 years old, and I seriously doubt I'll be having any "fun".

pzkpfw
2010-Oct-07, 10:11 PM
It would be so much more fun if it was 50 years earlier, so we could show the believers the time had already come (with no effect).

This just gives them the ability to shift the goalposts again.

Bozola
2010-Oct-07, 11:15 PM
Let me get this straight. Are we going to expecting people who have steadfastly refused to believe the works of scientists to believe the work of a scientist?

I wonder how long before this new calendar date is called a conspiracy? I've got my money on 15 minutes.

silkyjla30
2010-Oct-07, 11:20 PM
I question the article simply because very few mayanist if any state that the end of the long count is the end of the world to the mayans.

My second observation is that they have what looks to be an Aztec calender in the picture in the article. That calender supposedly ends in 2027 I believe.

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-08, 12:34 AM
I wonder if this is part of the desperate backtracking that's going to happen when nothing happens in 2012.
People are starting to realize that the time for their reveal as idiots it's getting closer so they have to push it until they can't be expected to be taken up on my bet to put them in sacks and beat them on TV.

Van Rijn
2010-Oct-08, 12:50 AM
I question the article simply because very few mayanist if any state that the end of the long count is the end of the world to the mayans.


It looks like that's the reviewer's take on the book. The book title is "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" which, from Amazon covers:


This second volume of Calendars and Years explores the calendars of ancient and medieval China, India, the ancient Jewish world, the medieval Islamic world, and the Maya. Particular attention is given to the preserved evidence on which our understanding of these calendars lies, the modern historiography of their study, and the role of calendars in ancient and medieval society. Topics covered include the origin of the Chinese sexagenary cycle, evidence for the 364-day year in the ancient Jewish world, and the history of attempts to establish a correlation between Mayan dates and the Julian and Gregorian calendars.

It sounds like it's just about calendars. I doubt the book mentions the end of the world ideas.

Tenshu
2010-Oct-08, 01:03 AM
how ironic, if it ain't two years, someone tries to push it back.
Marshall masters said up to 2017 we could be in trouble(which imo means he's trying to cover his butt in case 2012 doesn't happen)
Aphophis in 2036, and then the good old "planets" will line up on 2040--;

Heck some people said Nibiru would be visiable this freaking month when it supposed be seen back in june or may?

KaiYeves
2010-Oct-08, 01:14 AM
Now please send this everywhere you can so that I won't be bothered about this until I'm in my 70s.

(By then, I won't care, because I'll already have lived long enough to see Comet Halley.)

Swift
2010-Oct-08, 02:08 AM
I question the article simply because very few mayanist if any state that the end of the long count is the end of the world to the mayans.

My second observation is that they have what looks to be an Aztec calender in the picture in the article. That calender supposedly ends in 2027 I believe.
I agree with your concern. I think the writer of the article (not the book's authors) was being a little sensational to make better copy. Ditto about the Aztec picture.

Swift
2010-Oct-08, 02:09 AM
Really?...in 2012, I'll only be 2 years older than I am now. In 2062 (if I were to survive that long), I'd be 108 years old, and I seriously doubt I'll be having any "fun".
Hey old man ;), I'll be a sprightly 104 years old, and probably still a moderator in this forum, convincing people that the world isn't about to be destroyed. :D

Gillianren
2010-Oct-08, 02:24 AM
Heck some people said Nibiru would be visiable this freaking month when it supposed be seen back in june or may?

May, all right. May 2003. Or Planet X; there's some crossover in beliefs.

Lone Wolf
2010-Oct-08, 09:01 AM
*old man croaky voice*
"Dagnabbit, you pesky young'uns! Back in my day, it was 2012! You and your newfangled 2062s! Go read a book!"

AndreasJ
2010-Oct-08, 09:15 AM
Hm. Oughtn't this be tellable by radiocarbon dating on tombs with long count dates?

ggremlin
2010-Oct-08, 10:49 AM
The 2012'ers will deny that the Mayan calendar is wrong....until 2013.

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-08, 12:14 PM
Hm. Oughtn't this be tellable by radiocarbon dating on tombs with long count dates?
Radiocarbon dating is not very precise, at that age you can easily be off by half a century.

silkyjla30
2010-Oct-08, 12:22 PM
I agree with your concern. I think the writer of the article (not the book's authors) was being a little sensational to make better copy. Ditto about the Aztec picture.

Ah, that makes sense then. I wouldn't mind checking this book out though. It seems like an interesting read.

Bobbar
2010-Oct-08, 12:38 PM
But, my calender ends on December 31st, 2010! What ever will I do?! :cry:

Swift
2010-Oct-08, 12:43 PM
But, my calender ends on December 31st, 2010! What ever will I do?! :cry:
You might consider buying another calendar. :think:

If you write a book telling people how to survive the end of everything on 31 Dec. 2010, you might be able to afford a 2011 calendar. ;)

NEOWatcher
2010-Oct-08, 12:56 PM
Chapter 10: My predictions of the post 2010 epoch.
Predicts dates for astronomical issues such as the equinox, solstice, lunar phases.
Predicts the days of the week certain dates fall on.
Predicts the observance of holidays.
Predicts the end of the next epoch. (Spoiler: 365 days from the previous epoch)

PhillipJFry
2010-Oct-08, 01:36 PM
Chapter 10: My predictions of the post 2010 epoch.
Predicts dates for astronomical issues such as the equinox, solstice, lunar phases.
Predicts the days of the week certain dates fall on.
Predicts the observance of holidays.
Predicts the end of the next epoch. (Spoiler: 365 days from the previous epoch)

Where can I buy your book?

NEOWatcher
2010-Oct-08, 02:18 PM
Still working on that. But; I have released chapter 10 from copyright protection so it can be found from different sources in most retail establishments.

Strange
2010-Oct-08, 02:19 PM
Still working on that. But; I have released chapter 10 from copyright protection so it can be found from different sources in most retail establishments.

Often with nice photos of puppies.

KS42
2010-Oct-11, 10:46 PM
Reading this review.
http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/News-end-of-the-world-calendar-may-be-off-100710.aspx

A quote from this review. A main argument.

“One of the principal complications is that there are really so few scholars who know the astronomy, the epigraphy, and the archeology,” says Aldana. “

The “really so few scholars” that did know Mayan astronomy and Mayan recorded astronomical events are the founders of the GMT correlation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar

http://astrolabeastrology.com/text/Calendar_Correlation.htm

Two proven examples of the GMT. I have come across many similar examples other over the years - both online and in literature.

Astronomical: Any correct correlation must match the astronomical content of classic inscriptions. The GMT correlation does an excellent job of matching lunar data in the supplementary series.[15] For example: An inscription at the Temple of the Sun at Palenque records that on Long Count 9.16.4.10.8 there were 26 days completed in a 30 day lunation.[n 5] The Dresden Codex contains an eclipse table[21] which gives eclipse seasons when the Moon is near its ascending or descending node and an eclipse is likely to occur. Dates converted using the GMT correlation fall roughly in this eclipse season. The Dresden Codex contains a Venus table which records the heliacal risings of Venus. The GMT correlation agrees with these to within a few days which is as accurately as these could have been observed by the ancient Maya.

Archaeological: Various items that can be associated with specific Long Count dates have been isotope dated. In 1959 the University of Pennsylvania carbon dated samples from ten wood lintels from Tikal.[22] These were carved with a date equivalent to 741 AD using the GMT correlation. The average carbon date was 746±34 years.

The Mayan dates of the current cycle are 3113BC to 2012AD.

The GMT correlation is well established and proven.

Maybe the author should re-evaluate his position?…Do some homework?

Granted, the Wiki entry does provide alternative correlations. This author - Gerardo Aldana should be added to that list. The author does not provide a number (maybe if I buy the book).

JDN correlations
to the Maya creation date
(after Thompson 1971, et al. and Aveni 1980)
Name Correlation
Bowditch 394,483
Willson 438,906
Smiley 482,699
Makemson 489,138
Modified Spinden 489,383
Spinden 489,384
Teeple 492,662
Dinsmoor 497,879
−4CR 508,363
−2CR 546,323
Stock 556,408
Goodman 584,280
Martinez-Hernandez 584,281
GMT 584,283
Modified Thompson 1 584,284
Thompson (Lounsbury) 584,285
Pogo 588,626
+2CR 622,243
Böhm 622,261
Kreichgauer 626,927
+4CR 660,203
Fuls, et. al. 660,208
Hochleitner 674,265
Schultz 677,723
Escalona-Ramos 679,108
Valliant 679,183
Weitzel 774,078

rigel
2010-Oct-12, 07:07 PM
Oh no, I'l be 111 in 2062.

Now that's a number to be aware of.

danscope
2010-Oct-12, 07:16 PM
Was he off by 50 years because...... he ran out of stone, so he just fudged it ?

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-13, 02:54 PM
Archaeological: Various items that can be associated with specific Long Count dates have been isotope dated. In 1959 the University of Pennsylvania carbon dated samples from ten wood lintels from Tikal.[22] These were carved with a date equivalent to 741 AD using the GMT correlation. The average carbon date was 746±34 years.
I wonder if they have later tried to get a dendrochronological date on those.

danscope
2010-Oct-13, 06:49 PM
And that's the teeth of the mattter.

KS42
2010-Oct-14, 12:23 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology

Sure. One can count tree rings....If there are very old trees still around in central america...

The Maya did cut and clear large areas of tropical rainforest.....It would be hard to find a 1000 year old tree.

Matching recorded Venus and Lunar cycles is better anyway.

Astronomical correlations are the way to go. The best way.

To repeat...
Astronomical: Any correct correlation must match the astronomical content of classic inscriptions. The GMT correlation does an excellent job of matching lunar data in the supplementary series.[15] For example: An inscription at the Temple of the Sun at Palenque records that on Long Count 9.16.4.10.8 there were 26 days completed in a 30 day lunation.[n 5] The Dresden Codex contains an eclipse table[21] which gives eclipse seasons when the Moon is near its ascending or descending node and an eclipse is likely to occur. Dates converted using the GMT correlation fall roughly in this eclipse season. The Dresden Codex contains a Venus table which records the heliacal risings of Venus. The GMT correlation agrees with these to within a few days which is as accurately as these could have been observed by the ancient Maya.

KS42
2010-Oct-14, 12:29 PM
It would be impossible to count rings on lintels....A partial segment of tree.

Equivalent to count and age rings on a 2X4......something like that

KS42
2010-Oct-14, 12:32 PM
Lintel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaxchilan_Lintel_24

Gawdzilla
2010-Oct-14, 01:19 PM
You all realize that this is a disinformation campaign by TPTB to lull you into thinking you have more time than you actually do? This will allow the REAL RULERS to stock up on essentials without us noticing their increasing scarcity and keep us from complaining about that sudden building projects in the soft limestone of Missouri? ("Storage facilities" my fuzzy behind!)

Fazor
2010-Oct-14, 02:04 PM
From the OP's quote of the article:

The Maya prophecy predicting the 2012 end of the world may be off by 50 to 100 years or more, according to a new book.

Does the underlined portion bother anyone else? I mean, that makes it read like the Mayans foresaw the end of the world. AFAIK, there's never been one shred of actual evidence of such a prophecy. Rather, others have claimed it, and then used nothing more than a revolving calendar to support the claim. That's all well and good (rather, not well and un-good), but that's not Mayan.

"The alleged Mayan prophecy," thank you very much. I just get this sick feeling someone who's not familiar could read that line and think that the Mayans actually made such a prediction.

The Backroad Astronomer
2010-Oct-14, 02:17 PM
50 more years of this bleeping bleep, I don't know if I'll survive.

Swift
2010-Oct-14, 02:48 PM
Does the underlined portion bother anyone else?
Yes (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/108396-Mayan-Calander-off-by-50-years-(we-wait-til-2062-for-the-end)?p=1800993#post1800993)
;)

Fazor
2010-Oct-14, 03:00 PM
Yes (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/108396-Mayan-Calander-off-by-50-years-(we-wait-til-2062-for-the-end)?p=1800993#post1800993)
;)
Blah I specifically read through the thread looking for such discussions. And from a guy who scored a perfect on the ACT reading comprehension section! Oh, the shame, the shame!

But yeah. Of course, on second read-through I also note it says the "Maya" prediction, not "Mayan", so one could argue that it's nothing more than a word describing which particular "prophecy", rather than a claim to the originator of said "prophecy."

Though I still think it reads like it's calling it a truly Mayan claim.

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-14, 04:09 PM
It would be impossible to count rings on lintels....A partial segment of tree.

Equivalent to count and age rings on a 2X4......something like that
Which is quite possible. If you have a series coveting the range of years from an area where weather variations followed your test place fairly well, then a few tens of rings will likely be enough to determine if it was in one of two specific periods.

Partial segments will give a series of years during which the tree lived, which will eliminate dates before the youngest ring since the tree was still living. Dates after won't be eliminated, naturally, as it could have been stored before being used, plus the younger wood would have been removed during manufacturing.

And it still makes sense to try, if nothing else, to extend the amounts of data that may later result in a complete timeline.

Gillianren
2010-Oct-14, 05:02 PM
There's a cabin which is supposedly the one in which Abraham Lincoln grew up. Carbon dating couldn't give an answer to that for a whole list of reasons. However, they were able to examine the tree rings in the logs and discover that, a, they'd been cut down at different times, and b, few of them had been cut down early enough for Lincoln to have been younger than about twenty and often older.

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-14, 05:46 PM
Log cabins are very good for dendrochronology as they often have the outer rings intact so the exact year of felling can be determined.
For most other things, "this was made from a tree that was growing in the years x-y, thus felled in year y at the latest", is the best that can be done. Which is often still a lot better than radiocarbon or thermoluminescence dating can do.

KS42
2010-Oct-14, 08:00 PM
Reading this wiki entry. This wiki is not that bad...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology

A quote.
"While archaeologists can use the technique to date the piece of wood and when it was felled, it may be difficult to definitively determine the age of a building or structure that the wood is in. The wood could have been reused from an older structure, may have been felled and left for many years before use, or could have been used to replace a damaged piece of wood."

Something I thought about before reading this wiki entry. One can not trace the history of a piece of wood.

Counting tree rings on a Mayan lintel is not definitive.

Radio carbon dating is....Use a few samples

"Archaeological: Various items that can be associated with specific Long Count dates have been isotope dated. In 1959 the University of Pennsylvania carbon dated samples from ten wood lintels from Tikal.[22] These were carved with a date equivalent to 741 AD using the GMT correlation. The average carbon date was 746±34 years."

Fazor
2010-Oct-14, 08:49 PM
Counting tree rings on a Mayan lintel is not definitive.
Radio carbon dating is....Use a few samples


My understanding of radiocarbon dating is that the determination of age is not all that precise. It seems it's often used when we have an idea of an item's age, or a theory of an item's age, to see if that age falls within the error margin. Which is helpful, but not all that accurate when trying to pin down an exact year, or when the age in question needs to be fairly accurate (for instance, +/- even 15 years when determining, say, Lincoln's childhood home, makes a big difference, since we know his exact age.)

Or am I wrong?

HenrikOlsen
2010-Oct-14, 08:57 PM
Something I thought about before reading this wiki entry. One can not trace the history of a piece of wood.
Quite correct, but a piece of wood can set an earliest date something could possibly have happened since it can't be involved with anything until after the tree it was part of was felled.
As I already said.

KS42
2010-Oct-15, 12:52 PM
I think we are missing the point.

This quote...

"Archaeological: Various items that can be associated with specific Long Count dates have been isotope dated.
In 1959 the University of Pennsylvania carbon dated samples from ten wood lintels from Tikal.[22]
These were carved with a date equivalent to 741 AD using the GMT correlation. The average carbon date was 746±34 years."

The GMT correlation agrees with the radio carbon dating.

This range of +/- 34 years or +/- 12410 days.This gives a range of 712AD to 780AD.

Anyother correlation must fall whithin this range.

Minimum value - 571,873
Maximum value - 596,693

Most of the entries of this list can be eliminated.

Bowditch 394,483
Willson 438,906
Smiley 482,699
Makemson 489,138
Modified Spinden 489,383
Spinden 489,384
Teeple 492,662
Dinsmoor 497,879
−4CR 508,363
−2CR 546,323
Stock 556,408
Goodman 584,280
Martinez-Hernandez 584,281
GMT 584,283
Modified Thompson 1 584,284
Thompson (Lounsbury) 584,285
Pogo 588,626
+2CR 622,243
Böhm 622,261
Kreichgauer 626,927
+4CR 660,203
Fuls, et. al. 660,208
Hochleitner 674,265
Schultz 677,723
Escalona-Ramos 679,108
Valliant 679,183
Weitzel 774,078


Revised.

Goodman 584,280
Martinez-Hernandez 584,281
GMT 584,283
Modified Thompson 1 584,284
Thompson (Lounsbury) 584,285
Pogo 588,626

Radio carbon dating is only one piece. There are astronomical sources.The Dresden Codex for example.

The current cycle is 3113BC to 2012AD.

Radio carbon dating has been around for awhile. I would say this science is quite well proven over the years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiocarbon_dating

A quote form this entry.

"The raw radiocarbon dates, in BP years, are calibrated to give calendar dates. Standard calibration curves are available, based on comparison of radiocarbon dates of samples that can be dated independently by other methods such as examination of tree growth rings (dendrochronology), deep ocean sediment cores, lake sediment varves, coral samples, and speleothems (cave deposits)."

Gawdzilla
2010-Oct-15, 01:31 PM
Got an English version of that for us?

slang
2010-Oct-15, 01:33 PM
Sure. One can count tree rings....If there are very old trees still around in central america...

The Maya did cut and clear large areas of tropical rainforest.....It would be hard to find a 1000 year old tree.

You don't need a 1000 year old living tree to compare treerings back a 1000 years. The matching is on patterns of rings, and whether a tree dies after 100 years or is cut after 50, the rings it's built up still show the influence from the seasons it's lived through. If you have enough samples from a certain period, and good understanding how certain species of plants react to weather/climate fluctations, samples from different trees will overlap, showing the same rings. Some on the outside, some near the center.

ETA: oh, there were two pages. How'd that happen? Ah well.

Starfury
2010-Nov-12, 01:40 AM
Does the underlined portion bother anyone else?

Yes, it bothers me very much. It bothers me that there are people out there, including children, who have been scared spitless by the 2012 hucksters. Some of these people are even contemplating suicide because they're convinced they're going to die in 2 years anyway. And it really bothers me that the author of this article is giving these frauds a helping hand, even if he didn't intend to.

KaiYeves
2010-Nov-12, 11:03 PM
Yes, it bothers me very much. It bothers me that there are people out there, including children, who have been scared spitless by the 2012 hucksters. Some of these people are even contemplating suicide because they're convinced they're going to die in 2 years anyway. And it really bothers me that the author of this article is giving these frauds a helping hand, even if he didn't intend to.
This bothers me, too.

novaderrik
2010-Nov-13, 01:49 AM
Yes, it bothers me very much. It bothers me that there are people out there, including children, who have been scared spitless by the 2012 hucksters. Some of these people are even contemplating suicide because they're convinced they're going to die in 2 years anyway. And it really bothers me that the author of this article is giving these frauds a helping hand, even if he didn't intend to.

i have a standing offer with someone on another board that thinks the world is going to end in 2012. this is a fairly wealthy man with a few businesses in the New Orleans area and a few really nice old cars. i told him that i'd allow him to sign over all of his assets to me since none of it will matter in 2 years, anyways. i have agreed to be nice enough to let him continue operating the businesses and driving the cars until the end of the world- at which time i'd take possession of everything. for some reason, he hasn't sent me the paperwork yet..

Starfury
2010-Nov-13, 06:08 AM
I like that approach, seeing how committed they are to that premise. Doesn't sound like your acquaintance is as fully committed to a 2012 doomsday as he says.

Van Rijn
2010-Nov-14, 07:37 AM
It would be so much more fun if it was 50 years earlier, so we could show the believers the time had already come (with no effect).

This just gives them the ability to shift the goalposts again.

Unfortunately, I can't seem to find the link again, but a bit back on the MSNBC site there was a Today show clip of an interview with professor Aldana (the fellow mentioned in the OP). He very clearly said that given the uncertainties, the end of the 13th b'ak'tun (what's supposed to be the big event) could have happened 50 years ago or more, or it could be 50 years or more in the future.

Alan G. Archer
2010-Nov-14, 10:37 PM
Unfortunately, I can't seem to find the link again, but a bit back on the MSNBC site there was a Today show clip of an interview with professor Aldana (the fellow mentioned in the OP). He very clearly said that given the uncertainties, the end of the 13th b'ak'tun (what's supposed to be the big event) could have happened 50 years ago or more, or it could be 50 years or more in the future.

TODAYshow.com: "'End of the world' delayed — by Mayan calendar (http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/39746543/ns/technology_and_science-science/)" (Oct. 22, 2010).
Dara Brown talks with professor Gerardo Aldana. The page also features an Oct. 19, 2010, story by Stephanie Pappas.

Van Rijn
2010-Nov-15, 04:26 AM
TODAYshow.com: "'End of the world' delayed — by Mayan calendar (http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/39746543/ns/technology_and_science-science/)" (Oct. 22, 2010).
Dara Brown talks with professor Gerardo Aldana. The page also features an Oct. 19, 2010, story by Stephanie Pappas.

Thanks! That article mentions the time range issue:



If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will — or if it has already.

though in the video it was made a bit stronger than that. It's interesting that I don't see this point mentioned much around the net. Heh.

Tenshu
2010-Nov-15, 06:49 AM
so is the article good or bad? Cause i seemed to have gotten somewhat negative vibes from reading it.

MaDeR
2010-Nov-15, 09:21 PM
50 years? Too long. No one will give conners money for being scared by something that will happen in half a century. Better think up fast new scare, 2012 will be over soon.

johnNdeb
2010-Nov-16, 01:42 AM
Seems to me that we all will experience the end of the world, just on different dates... Live now, explain later.