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Zvezdichko
2010-Nov-25, 01:13 PM
Hello,

I don't have a direct proof this really happens since I haven't talked to people involved in the program, or I don't have documents supporting this thing.

But people, this is getting really, really suspicious!

The launch of Discovery may be delayed until 2011 now:

http://www.universetoday.com/79924/shuttle-launch-could-be-delayed-into-next-year/

What is the suspicious part that makes me think that the space shuttle launch is indeed deliberately delayed in order to save jobs?

This sentence:


“We’re looking at the fault tree from assembly, to how it gets foamed, to transport, to how it gets to KSC – every single part of that tank’s life is part of our fault tree analysis.”

Great... somebody is mishandling the tank during a simple step and now the team is looking through the whole tree to see where exactly this simple step has happened?

I don't have a direct proof, but this is suspicious... really suspicious. A theory that it's deliberately done may be false, but it really fits into the current scene - looming jobs losses after the end of the space suttle program.

Compared to the other possible explaination : the space shuttle system is too complex so delays are typical VS deliberately done by some people to save their jobs for the next months, the natural explaination does indeed seem more likely due to the Occam's razor principle - it's more simple. Yet, I still think the deliberately done theory should be taken as a posibility

EDIT : I may be unable to answer the posts for the next few days

Solfe
2010-Nov-25, 02:55 PM
I don't know what the advantage would be, I believe they shutdown all of the supporting manufacturing plants.

I suppose longer delays allows NASA to say they have a functioning shuttle program, but that it pretty weak. It is a way to keep people working I guess.

LaurelHS
2010-Nov-25, 03:48 PM
How many Shuttle launches (and landings for that matter) have been delayed in the past? You're right about delays being typical. There was a headline in The Onion once, "NASA Delays Shuttle Launch Out Of Sheer Habit."

Swift
2010-Nov-25, 04:02 PM
Zvezdichko,

I think this is the first thread you've started in the CT forum. I appreciate the fact that you did post this here, and not in Space Exploration. But I would strongly suggest that you read The Advice for CT Supporters (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/86593-Advice-for-Conspiracy-Theory-Supporters) before you go much further.


I don't have a direct proof this really happens since I haven't talked to people involved in the program, or I don't have documents supporting this thing.
That is going to be a difficult position to work from, since evidence is one of the things we are looking for.

EDIT : I may be unable to answer the posts for the next few days
Which means you will come back to 30 or 40 unanswered posts and a mess. I am closing this thread till you return. Upon your return, if you wish to continue this (and answer questions and present evidence), then please Report this post and a moderator will reopen the thread.

Swift
2011-Jan-03, 01:45 PM
By the request of the OP, who says he has more to discuss, I've reopened the thread.

Zvezdichko - You are still being held responsible to follow the rules of the CT forum. This means you must present evidence for this and to answer questions put to you. If you do not, the thread will be permanently closed and you may be infracted.

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 02:40 PM
Hello,

Yes. I must still follow the rules in order to discuss something.

While, per point 6 of ATM thread this may still be classified as: "unproven speculation", something very interesting happened in the last few weeks.

I got several private messages on this forum and on another forum by a specific person who claims to have been involved in USAF, AF Space Shuttle Program... I could almost say I was spammed. While I checked some information about him, looks like these credentials are true.

Why should a person involved somehow in the Space Shuttle Program respond with open animosity towards me and my threads? It seems like I am on to something, why should he bother to offend me in such way?

Okay. Looks like my speculation needs to be revisited. Even if it's still unproven speculation, it's probably not a conspiracy theory. There may be no plot, no organised scheme.

This, however, cannot exclude that some people involved in the Space Shuttle Program are trying their best to prolong the unevitalbe. And it looks like there's some factual support.

Each day more and more cracks appear on the stringers. It's quite annoying such cracks appear to pop up and the strange and unfitting thing is that they have appeared only recently. What if these stringer cracks have developed unseen on tanks during filling since the first launch of Columbia? Or they may have been seen, but NASA was quite famous for neglecting seemingly little problems that led to the destruction of both Challenger and Columbia. And now it's just the right time for some people to be vocal, to prove it's better to fix them so they can buy more time before retiring the shuttle.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 03:12 PM
Why should a person involved somehow in the Space Shuttle Program respond with open animosity towards me and my threads? It seems like I am on to something, why should he bother to offend me in such way?
Maybe they responded with animosity because you were making unfounded accusations against them and their co-workers and they were understandably offended?

Strange
2011-Jan-03, 03:20 PM
Maybe they responded with animosity because you were making unfounded accusations against them and their co-workers and they were understandably offended?

No. That is too obvious. That is what They want you to think.

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 03:27 PM
Maybe they responded with animosity because you were making unfounded accusations against them and their co-workers and they were understandably offended?

And maybe they should respond without animosity and be polite and try to explain publicly why cracks like these haven't appeared or been noticed until the last flight?

The Buzz Aldrin's punch-then-explain attitude isn't helpful.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 03:31 PM
According to this article (http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts133/101115crack/), "External tank crack repairs are not unusual. Some 29 stringer cracks were found in 18 previous tanks, according to an official familiar with their history." Why are you saying these cracks haven't appeared before?

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 03:36 PM
According to this article (http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts133/101115crack/), "External tank crack repairs are not unusual. Some 29 stringer cracks were found in 18 previous tanks, according to an official familiar with their history." Why are you saying these cracks haven't appeared before?

Well, if I've said so and history says otherwise, then I'm wrong. Yet I still ask the question: why are they so vocal NOW and not BEFORE?

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 03:44 PM
Maybe the media is just paying more attention now because the program is getting down to the last few missions. Do you have any other evidence of a deliberate delay?

MAPNUT
2011-Jan-03, 03:58 PM
Whether there is any benefit to NASA personnel in delaying completion of the shuttle program would seem to depend on congressional appropriations. I.e. they can't extend the progran without getting more money. What's the NASA budget situation?

CJSF
2011-Jan-03, 03:59 PM
Besides, an "AF Shuttle Program" is irrelevant. The US Air Force has nothing whatever to do with the design, manufacture, operation or repair of the external tanks. It's been in the mainstream media for months: cracks in the tank are not unusual. They have been seen before. That this is one of the final flights makes it more newsworthy, and perhaps these cracks are more severe than those seen before. But nothing - N O T H I N G - indicates any foul play! Do you realize you're on the edge of accusing people of attempted murder? If the foam crack had not occurred, or was less severe itself, the launch may have taken place! Would a failure have happened? No one knows, but your scenario plays like some Hollywood script! Seriously?

CJSF

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 04:24 PM
Besides, an "AF Shuttle Program" is irrelevant. The US Air Force has nothing whatever to do with the design, manufacture, operation or repair of the external tanks. It's been in the mainstream media for months: cracks in the tank are not unusual. They have been seen before. That this is one of the final flights makes it more newsworthy, and perhaps these cracks are more severe than those seen before. But nothing - N O T H I N G - indicates any foul play! Do you realize you're on the edge of accusing people of attempted murder? If the foam crack had not occurred, or was less severe itself, the launch may have taken place! Would a failure have happened? No one knows, but your scenario plays like some Hollywood script! Seriously?

CJSF

I'm not accusing people of attempted murder, though there have been conspiracy theories stating exactly that (http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/tv/foxapollo.html#murder ).

I don't believe that a worker would deliberately cause something that would undoubtfully kill astronauts. I do believe, however, there may be various scenarios according to which some people may overreact about a small (or maybe even not so small) problem.

We all know that the O-ring failure and the foam loss was happening. We all know that NASA knew about the risks and launched both Challenger and Columbia. We all know that the Augustine commission (two decades ago) warned that NASA may lose another shuttle within the next few years.

This already happened.

Do you really, really, really think that the O-ring failure and the foam loss are the only seemingly small problems that may (or may not) cause a mishap? Looks like they are not and we have a fresh example now - string cracks about which I thought they are unique (well looks like I was wrong and they have occured even before).

Well it's about the right time about overreacting about a problem of a similar magnitude. Don't you think?

Garrison
2011-Jan-03, 04:26 PM
Whether there is any benefit to NASA personnel in delaying completion of the shuttle program would seem to depend on congressional appropriations. I.e. they can't extend the progran without getting more money. What's the NASA budget situation?

Currently spending $500 million on Ares I because no one has officially gotten around to cancelling it. And with the SD HLV having been mandated most of the jobs have already been protected.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 04:42 PM
Zvezdichko, it seems like the only evidence you've presented is your personal opinion that NASA employees are "overreacting" to a problem.

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 04:47 PM
Zvezdichko, it seems like the only evidence you've presented is your personal opinion that NASA employees are "overreacting" to a problem.

That's correct. My personal opinion is based on the fact that they regularly discover new and new cracks.

R.A.F.
2011-Jan-03, 04:51 PM
The Buzz Aldrin's punch-then-explain attitude isn't helpful.

I'm not at all surprised that Buzz punched someone* who stalked him for his own financial gain. How is this relevant to this discussion?


*yep...ain't gonna dignify him by naming him...we all know who he is.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 04:52 PM
They regularly discover problems and have to repair them, and sometimes this causes delays. Sounds like business as usual to me.

CJSF
2011-Jan-03, 04:58 PM
Zvezdichko,

I apologize for getting a slight bit emotional, and if you were never implying that the cracks themselves were a form of sabotage, I apologize for that, too. In any event, I still see no evidence or logical reason to support this as a deliberate attempt to extend the program.

CJSF

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 05:12 PM
I apologize for getting a slight bit emotional, and if you were never implying that the cracks themselves were a form of sabotage, I apologize for that, too. In any event, I still see no evidence or logical reason to support this as a deliberate attempt to extend the program.


Actually in the beginning I did think about the idea as stated in the Original post, but later I revised my opinion based on the fact that the law in the US is very strict and even if you're caught doing this this may cause you a lot of trouble...

So no, I don't believe that somebody would risk his carreer and probably his freedom by doing things like this. I think (but I'm not so sure) that I came across a news item in the media about a contractor who manifactured a broken part of the shuttle and this was indeed bad.


In any event, I still see no evidence or logical reason to support this as a deliberate attempt to extend the program.

Hm... imagine you're working on a big complicated project like the space shuttle. You come across a lot of small but irritating problems ... Then suddenly you will understand that you're going to be laid off after the end of your program. You're not happy. So you start talking about these small problems and you get additional time.

Then we have this :


And with the SD HLV having been mandated most of the jobs have already been protected.

Are you sure about that? I'm not so sure NASA will choose a SD HLV as the next heavy-lift booster. Looks like they're preferring a liquid rocket recently. Delta IV Heavy may turn out to be enough to implement the flexible path.

Garrison
2011-Jan-03, 05:37 PM
Are you sure about that? I'm not so sure NASA will choose a SD HLV as the next heavy-lift booster. Looks like they're preferring a liquid rocket recently. Delta IV Heavy may turn out to be enough to implement the flexible path.

The SD HLV is primarily a liquid rocket, and it is going to happen:

NASA bill (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=nasa-congress-fy-2011)

And if the wording of the bill leaves some wiggle room the intent is clear:

Congress as rocket designers (http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1426)

R.A.F.
2011-Jan-03, 05:50 PM
...imagine you're working on a big complicated project like the space shuttle. You come across a lot of small but irritating problems ... Then suddenly you will understand that you're going to be laid off after the end of your program. You're not happy. So you start talking about these small problems and you get additional time.

I simply refuse to believe that those who work on our space programs are that "petty"...not without evidence.

Have any to present??

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 05:54 PM
No. I don't have direct evidence. I just base my opinion on human's psychology.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 06:15 PM
And have you considered the possibility that maybe NASA's concern about the cracks is legitimate?

Gillianren
2011-Jan-03, 06:18 PM
No. I don't have direct evidence. I just base my opinion on human's psychology.

What are your qualifications in psychology? How much study have you put into it? What people previously exhibiting this behaviour have you studied?

Zvezdichko
2011-Jan-03, 06:27 PM
I'm not a psychologist, but a biologist. However I do have contacts with people who are psychologists and I trust their opinions. Also there is internet and it's no secret that a job loss isn't a factor that causes a distress. There are quite a lot of articles on the subject:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2623116

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21123399

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20039106

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21183267

Unemployment is a growing problem worldwide. Unemployment or job loss is one of the most stressful of life events and can lead to diminished social status, disturbed social role patterns, financial debt, reduced self-esteem and feelings of guilt.

LaurelHS
2011-Jan-03, 06:32 PM
"People don't like being unemployed" therefore "NASA is deliberately delaying the end of the Shuttle program to save jobs"? That sounds like a big leap. Have you considered the possibility that NASA is delaying the missions because of a legitimate concern about safety?

Swift
2011-Jan-03, 06:33 PM
I think everyone agrees that job loss is stressful. But it is a big leap going from someone is stressed about an impending job loss, to someone is deliberately lying, exaggerating, or doing something else unethical (if not illegal) to keep their job. I've worked at companies going through downsizings, and while highly unpleasant, no one ever did anything like that. You are basically accusing people of unethical behavior based upon your feelings, with no evidence to support this.

captain swoop
2011-Jan-03, 06:35 PM
As you have no evidence then I am closing the thread again. This isn't the place for idle speculation and unfounded accusations