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CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-09, 09:42 AM
The problem I have with the whole Nibiru thing is that proponents seem to want to invoke a sort of metaphysical, mystical object on the one hand with all the references to ancient prophecies and sundry mumbo jumbo. Then on the other they want to latch onto the mundane evidence of science when that suits them with Tyche, comet Elenin, glitches in SOHO photos etc. They won't accept that they can't have it both ways. If its a physical body we should be able to detect it with the array of telescopes and satellites at our disposal. if it isn't then they don't even have any misinterpreted, misunderstood evidence to offer that there is anything to consider.

Well Garrison, I'm going to play devils advocate here, seeing as how vasotech doesn't seem to be around to stick up for him/herself. I have been following the whole Nibiru thing for some years now (with a healthy degree of scepticism) and have seen plenty of the sort of 'evidence' you refer to in the above post. Yet now we have an object approaching us which has shared the exact same position in the sky several times in the past decade with a large object that is only visible in infrared and is sitting right on the ecliptic plane (see my post in this thread titled 'just for fun') (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/118155-Debunking-the-Comet-Elenin-conspiracies). This object is commonly known as CW Leo or IRC 10216 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRC_%2B10216) and according to NASA is 120 to 150 pc away, yet by their own admission, distance estimates for carbon stars and brown/red dwarfs are unreliable at best. So, given that the whole science of astronomy is based on educated guesswork and best fit scenarios, is it really impossible that Elenin and CW Leo are the same object? Especially when you consider the December 1983 Washington Post article regarding a large object just outside the orbit of pluto (no link to this coz' I have to pay to access archives, but no prizes for guessing where 'comet' Elenin was in 1983)
And as for the whole pole shift thing, any idiot knows it is physically impossible for this to happen overnight. It is happening already, and has been for several years, and the rate is growing exponentially (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/GeomagneticPoles.shtml).

NEOWatcher
2011-Aug-09, 02:35 PM
This object is commonly known as CW Leo or IRC 10216 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRC_%2B10216) and according to NASA is 120 to 150 pc away, yet by their own admission, distance estimates for carbon stars and brown/red dwarfs are unreliable at best.
No; distance estimate precision is unreliable. That is why they are giving such a large range.

Garrison
2011-Aug-09, 06:27 PM
Is it really impossible that Elenin and CW Leo are the same object?

Would you mind stepping out of the 'devils advocate' role and giving us your own answer to that question?

Mine would be emphatically yes it is impossible for a star to be confused with a comet by every amateur and professional astronomer in the world. It is also impossible for a brown/red dwarf star to have reached the position of Comet Elenin without provoking massive disturbances in the solar system, or having somehow magically done so to now be causing earthquakes while leaving all the other planets, moons, and artificial satellites in our solar system untouched.

redshifter
2011-Aug-10, 12:19 AM
So, given that the whole science of astronomy is based on educated guesswork and best fit scenarios,

Huh? Isn't that just a bit of a stretch?

Van Rijn
2011-Aug-10, 01:32 AM
So, given that the whole science of astronomy is based on educated guesswork and best fit scenarios, is it really impossible that Elenin and CW Leo are the same object?


I don't accept your assertion about astronomy, and yes, it's impossible for them to be the same object. Among other things any nearby object would be obvious due to parallax. That is, as you view the object from Earth at different times of year, the object would be seen to visibly shift over a region of the sky. You don't see that or (another issue) proper motion with more distant objects.

These are also problems with all the nearby planet/brown dwarf claims, like the ridiculous claim from the Starviewer site (the one Vasotech links to) where they claim there is a brown dwarf all of 60 AU from Earth.



Especially when you consider the December 1983 Washington Post article regarding a large object just outside the orbit of pluto (no link to this coz' I have to pay to access archives [...]


Ah, so you didn't actually read the article (hint: there is no claim about "a large object just outside the orbit of pluto"). Here's a post I wrote on the '83 IRAS issue during a previous discussion:

http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/113614-WISE-shutdown-conspiracy?p=1863311#post1863311

Swift
2011-Aug-10, 01:42 AM
CuriousKiwi's post and the responses to it have been moved from this thread (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/119324-Nibiru-in-Russian-Media) to here.

CuriousKiwi, since you have not made it clear exactly what you are advocating and if you are truly advocating non-mainstream ideas or some sort of conspiracy or what, we are assuming you are advocating such non-mainstream ideas. Therefore, you are being held to the responsibilities of such advocates. If you have not done so, I strongly suggest you review our rules and the advice in this thread (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/86593-Advice-for-Conspiracy-Theory-Supporters).

If you are not advocating non-mainstream ideas, or are not willing to defend such ideas, you need to say so as soon as possible.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 06:51 AM
Would you mind stepping out of the 'devils advocate' role and giving us your own answer to that question?

Mine would be emphatically yes it is impossible for a star to be confused with a comet by every amateur and professional astronomer in the world. It is also impossible for a brown/red dwarf star to have reached the position of Comet Elenin without provoking massive disturbances in the solar system, or having somehow magically done so to now be causing earthquakes while leaving all the other planets, moons, and artificial satellites in our solar system untouched.

My answer to that question is I don't know, however it does seem fairly unlikely :lol:

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 07:05 AM
So, given that the whole science of astronomy is based on educated guesswork and best fit scenarios,

Huh? Isn't that just a bit of a stretch?

I think thats a pretty accurate statement myself, when you consider the very miniscule portion of the universe that mankind has actually explored. I think a good example of 'educated guesswork' is how extrasolar planets are 'discovered' by looking for regularly occuring fluctuations in a stars magnitude.

Jamotron
2011-Aug-10, 07:12 AM
I think a good example of 'educated guesswork' is how extrasolar planets are 'discovered' by looking for regularly occuring fluctuations in a stars magnitude.How is this educated guess work? How else would you have us discover them?

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 08:06 AM
CuriousKiwi's post and the responses to it have been moved from this thread (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/119324-Nibiru-in-Russian-Media) to here.

CuriousKiwi, since you have not made it clear exactly what you are advocating and if you are truly advocating non-mainstream ideas or some sort of conspiracy or what, we are assuming you are advocating such non-mainstream ideas. Therefore, you are being held to the responsibilities of such advocates. If you have not done so, I strongly suggest you review our rules and the advice in this thread (http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/86593-Advice-for-Conspiracy-Theory-Supporters).

If you are not advocating non-mainstream ideas, or are not willing to defend such ideas, you need to say so as soon as possible.

Well Swift, for starters I am not saying Elenin is CW Leo, I was merely pointing out an interesting coincidence, which can be proven using epherimides from JPL and a reputable astronomy program such as 'The Sky'. I mean really, what are the odds of this? There are 360 degrees of sky in both directions that Elenin could have appeared in, and it just happens to pop up right by one of the brightest infrared objects in the sky, which (by coincidence too I guess) just happens to be bang smack on the ecliptic plane, even though it is allegedly 120-150 pc away.

When I said I was playing Devils' Advocate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_advocate) I presumed that most folk understood what that meant, and am a little surprised to see my post made into its own thread. I have read the rules and understand that if I start a thread advocating a conspiracy theory, I will be expected to defend it, which is fair enough. However, I didn't start this thread :shifty:

That said, I would appreciate this thread being left open, as I know I am not the only person who has noticed the above coincidences, and am interested to hear others opinions on them.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 08:14 AM
How is this educated guess work? How else would you have us discover them?

Thats the point, there is no other way. There are many other possible explanations for regular magnitude fluctuations, but the star having a planet pass between it and the earth is the most likely.

kheider
2011-Aug-10, 08:33 AM
I think a good example of 'educated guesswork' is how extrasolar planets are 'discovered' by looking for regularly occuring fluctuations in a stars magnitude.

1. Almost all asteroids and Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are discovered by direct observation of the object. (Something to think about in regards to claims of a Planet X nearby)

2. Pre-Kepler, most exo-planets were discovered via the Doppler shift as the planet tugs on the host star.

-- Kevin Heider

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 08:47 AM
1. Almost all asteroids and Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are discovered by direct observation of the object. (Something to think about in regards to claims of a Planet X nearby)

-- Kevin Heider

Well of course they are, they are close enough to see this way. Which sort of backs up what you are saying about Planet X nearby claims. Any thoughts on the CW Leo coincidence Kevin?

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 09:24 AM
Ah, so you didn't actually read the article (hint: there is no claim about "a large object just outside the orbit of pluto"). Here's a post I wrote on the '83 IRAS issue during a previous discussion:

http://www.bautforum.com/showthread.php/113614-WISE-shutdown-conspiracy?p=1863311#post1863311

Of course I read the article (http://news.google.co.nz/newspapers?id=Za80AAAAIBAJ&sjid=jaUFAAAAIBAJ&pg=6060,3461403&hl=en), and I have finally found somewhere we can view it for free :dance:

Strange
2011-Aug-10, 09:49 AM
Thats the point, there is no other way. There are many other possible explanations for regular magnitude fluctuations, but the star having a planet pass between it and the earth is the most likely.

How do highly accurate measurements plus the most likely interpretation = a "guess"? Perhaps the word "guess" means something different to you?


Guess: (verb) suppose [something] without sufficient information

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 10:47 AM
How do highly accurate measurements plus the most likely interpretation = a "guess"? Perhaps the word "guess" means something different to you?

I did say 'educated guess'. And you have just answered your own question with that definition. I am not trying to cast doubt on this method of detecting exo-planets, but as you have said yourself, it is accurate measurements plus the most likely interpretation. Accurate measurement + likely, still = guess

Strange
2011-Aug-10, 10:59 AM
I did say 'educated guess'. And you have just answered your own question with that definition. I am not trying to cast doubt on this method of detecting exo-planets, but as you have said yourself, it is accurate measurements plus the most likely interpretation. Accurate measurement + likely = guess

You missed the "without sufficient information" bit. So you are using "guess" in a very idiosyncratic way. This is only going to confuse (and possibly annoy) people. A guess would be: "random errors in our measurements are clearly caused by invisible pink unicorns".

Unless you want to make the silly argument, so beloved of ATM types, that because we can't know anything with absolute certainty, my pet theory (which has no evidence and contradicts all known science) is just as valid as general relativity.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 11:20 AM
Unless you want to make the silly argument, so beloved of ATM types, that because we can't know anything with absolute certainty, my pet theory (which has no evidence and contradicts all known science) is just as valid as general relativity.

I'd rather use the technique of distraction to draw attention away from my rather dubious argument (which was only posted as an example BTW) and point out that we are getting a bit off topic here :naughty:
What are your opinions on the CW Leo coincidence Strange? Have you even bothered to test what I am alleging is true? The evidence of my 'pet theory' is irrefutable and is based on epherimides from JPL and pictures from the IRAS survey.

Strange
2011-Aug-10, 11:31 AM
I'd rather use the technique of distraction to draw attention away from my rather dubious argument (which was only posted as an example BTW) and point out that we are getting a bit off topic here

OK, but don't be surprised if you antagonize people!


What are your opinions on the CW Leo coincidence Strange? Have you even bothered to test what I am alleging is true? The evidence of my 'pet theory' is irrefutable and is based on epherimides from JPL and pictures from the IRAS survey.

You have noticed that at some point a moving object was roughly in line with another object. Does that even deserve the word coincidence? At some point it will probably be roughly lined up with something else. So what.

The only slightly worrying thing is that you might encourage the foolish to believe that a massive earthquake causing death star can hide behind that little comet. Or that any such apparent alignment is significant in some way. On the other hand, they have already demonstrated they are able to believe even more idiotic things without any encouragement at all.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-10, 11:55 AM
You have noticed that at some point a moving object was roughly in line with another object. Does that even deserve the word coincidence? At some point it will probably be roughly lined up with something else. So what.

The only slightly worrying thing is that you might encourage the foolish to believe that a massive earthquake causing death star can hide behind that little comet. Or that any such apparent alignment is significant in some way. On the other hand, they have already demonstrated they are able to believe even more idiotic things without any encouragement at all.

From the above reply it is pretty obvious you havn't bothered to even check what I am talking about. I don't recall mentioning an earthquake causing death star hiding behind Elenin either. As for me misleading the foolish, well they are quite capable of misleading themselves. Thanks for your opinion anyhow

Strange
2011-Aug-10, 12:16 PM
From the above reply it is pretty obvious you havn't bothered to even check what I am talking about.

I went back and reread your original post in the other thread. So the "interesting" thing is that this non-alignment can be seen on some magic date? Wow. Is that in the least bit interesting? Really?


I don't recall mentioning an earthquake causing death star hiding behind Elenin either.

I didn't say you did.


As for me misleading the foolish, well they are quite capable of misleading themselves.

But I did say that. :)

Swift
2011-Aug-10, 01:05 PM
When I said I was playing Devils' Advocate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil%27s_advocate) I presumed that most folk understood what that meant, and am a little surprised to see my post made into its own thread. I have read the rules and understand that if I start a thread advocating a conspiracy theory, I will be expected to defend it, which is fair enough. However, I didn't start this thread :shifty:

I know exactly what the term means, as I suspect most of our membership does.

I am also very familiar with the games that advocates of non-mainstream ideas play, and "I'm just asking" or "I'm just playing devil's advocate" are two of the favorites. Since you still have not made it clear, this thread remains in CT and your are responsible for it. You started this "thread" (this line of discussion), as far as we are concerned.

I also suggest you focus on "Elenin is CW Leo" and avoid dismantling all of physics in this thread, but that is entirely your choice. But if this thread gets too derailed, it will be closed.

NEOWatcher
2011-Aug-10, 02:04 PM
I did say 'educated guess'.
"Educated guess" only means you are basing it on knowledge of the subject, not on data aquired about the subject.
UFO's are a good example:
-Anyone sees something strange in the sky "I guess it was a UFO". Guess.
-Someone who often looks in the sky "I guess it was a plane because I've seen things like that before". Educated guess
-Someone who does a little digging "It was an airplane because it not only looked like one, but flight 12345 left XYZ for ABC at 2:35". Not a guess.


Accurate measurement + likely, still = guess
"Accurate measurement" is exactly opposite to "without sufficient information"

kheider
2011-Aug-10, 04:47 PM
Any thoughts on the CW Leo coincidence Kevin?

As seen from Earth, comet Elenin has spent a lot of time in the constellation LEO since 1975. That is merely the direction in the sky that the comet had been coming from. Before then it spent all of its time in Cnc.

-- Kevin Heider

Garrison
2011-Aug-10, 06:10 PM
My answer to that question is I don't know, however it does seem fairly unlikely :lol:

Unlikely still suggests its possible and unless you plan to rewrite the laws of physics it simply isn't. There may be alternate ways to interpret the Kepler data but that is quite a different proposition from simply ignoring all the available data to pretend CW Leo and Comet Elenin could somehow be the same thing.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-11, 08:10 AM
I know exactly what the term means, as I suspect most of our membership does.

I am also very familiar with the games that advocates of non-mainstream ideas play, and "I'm just asking" or "I'm just playing devil's advocate" are two of the favorites. Since you still have not made it clear, this thread remains in CT and your are responsible for it. You started this "thread" (this line of discussion), as far as we are concerned.

I also suggest you focus on "Elenin is CW Leo" and avoid dismantling all of physics in this thread, but that is entirely your choice. But if this thread gets too derailed, it will be closed.

Just close the thread then Swift. I am not going to defend the position that Elenin is CW Leo, because I don't believe that, however I don't believe in coincidences either. I think that in order to abide by BAUT rules, I should start another thread where I state my case more clearly from the start.

Jamotron
2011-Aug-11, 08:37 AM
however I don't believe in coincidences either.
Really? So when there is a clear statistical correlation between two seemingly unrelated events you always assume a causation?

Strange
2011-Aug-11, 08:46 AM
As so often, xkcd says it best: http://xkcd.com/925/

pzkpfw
2011-Aug-11, 09:30 AM
Just close the thread then Swift. I am not going to defend the position that Elenin is CW Leo, because I don't believe that, however I don't believe in coincidences either. I think that in order to abide by BAUT rules, I should start another thread where I state my case more clearly from the start.

No, you can just clarify your position here, in your next post to this thread. This thread was started due to claims (suggestions, implications, whatever) you made. (Playing devils' advocate doesn't work here). You can retract those claims and withdraw, or clarify them and continue. There's no need to make a whole new thread.

And please stop replying to moderation in-thread. It just adds to the off-topic side tracks.

CuriousKiwi
2011-Aug-11, 10:34 AM
is it really impossible that Elenin and CW Leo are the same object?
I am going to retract the above statement, as I do not believe they are. :whistle: