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Cylinder
2004-Sep-06, 11:03 AM
I realize this isn't exactly breaking news, but while perusing the NASA Near Earth Object site (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html) and its Risk Assessment Summary (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/), I found that the 40-meter 2000 SG344 (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2000sg344.html) was the object with the best (worst?) odds (0.180000000% or 1 in 586) of having a face-to-face meeting with our lovely planet between the years 2068 and 2101.

The best (see above) odds for any one day is on Sept. 17, 2070 (0.025000000% or 1 in 4000.)

Argos
2004-Sep-06, 01:33 PM
The best (see above) odds for any one day is on Sept. 17, 2070 (0.025000000% or 1 in 4000.)

Iīll be 106, probably close to the end (if the DNA people donīt come up with something). It would be nice having it as my grand finale. :)

Ut
2004-Sep-06, 02:13 PM
Yeah, I'll be old enough to bite the bullet by then. Hopefully, I'll even have enough money to go to the impact site, and be one of the lucky ones to be crushed by an interplanetary object.

Toutatis
2004-Sep-06, 02:36 PM
---Security Header (OutDat) phpBB Fmt---
Systems: 37C-26-36
DAY: 21156.79902777778 (TSA)
09/06/2004 14:35:36 (Gregorian/UTC)
~~~


Why fret about a VI having an E(i) ~1 MT (TNT eqv)???

Perspective *PLEASE*!!! :D

Regards
Sarandon

Cylinder
2004-Sep-06, 02:45 PM
Sept. 17, 2070 is a Wednesday, for those keeping score. :)

Cylinder
2004-Sep-06, 02:48 PM
Why fret about a VI having an E(i) ~1 MT (TNT eqv)??? Perspective *PLEASE*!!! :D

1 MT is roughly equivalent to Tunguska, right?

The Supreme Canuck
2004-Sep-06, 05:40 PM
I think it's larger than Tunguska, but I'm going from memory here...

Toutatis
2004-Sep-06, 05:55 PM
---Security Header (OutDat) phpBB Fmt---
Systems: 37C-26-36
DAY: 21156.93913194444 (TSA)
09/06/2004 17:57:21 (Gregorian/UTC)
~~~


1 MT is roughly equivalent to Tunguska, right?

The yield attendant to the Tunguska impact is estimated at circa 15 MT (TNT Eqv.) --- Though that too is trivial (i.e. restricted to local consequences.)

That said: even a trivial 'strike' could be devastating should it disrupt facilities containing, for instance, radio-toxins or pathogens -- with subsequent dissemination of same into the environment --- Though such is most unlikely considering the rather small ratio of ecumenical area to that of the planet’s surface...

FWIW --- Here's a (Note: widely disputed) 'break down' of expected effects at various E(i) 'levels.'

Up to 100 MT (Minor to severe local devastation.)
100 to 100,000 MT (Minor regional to moderate global effects.)
100,000 to 1,000,000 MT (Significant global effects.)
10,000,000 MT (Severe global effects.)
100,000,000 MT (Approaching threshold of global conflagration.)
1,000,000,000 MT (Approaching threshold of general sterilization )

Again, please note that the above figures (roughly) represent the 'center' of [i]widely divergent hypotheses -- Especially as regards global effects...

Best regards
Sarandon

Cylinder
2004-Sep-06, 06:05 PM
The best source I could find off-hand is this NASA presentation (http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/ImpactsDMFH101200forweb.pdf) estimating Tunguska at 15 MT, which is surprisingly high.

[Edit: simultaneous post. :) ]

The Supreme Canuck
2004-Sep-06, 07:15 PM
Ah, nuts! I thought Tunguska was 15 kT! Well, now I know to look something up instead of trying to remember it!

Cylinder
2004-Sep-06, 07:22 PM
Cheer up, Canuck. Somewhere in heaven there are several thousand caribou that would love for you to have been right.

Brady Yoon
2004-Sep-07, 06:01 AM
What was bigger, the Tunguska event, or the Meteor Crater?

Cylinder
2004-Sep-07, 06:26 AM
What was bigger, the Tunguska event, or the Meteor Crater?

Thn Barringer Crater site (http://www.barringercrater.com/lite/meteorite/crater.htm) estimates the yield at around 20 MT, making it a bit larger than the Tunguska estimates of 10-15 MT.

Kaptain K
2004-Sep-07, 03:57 PM
The main difference between Tungusta and Barringer is the difference between an air blast and a surface impact!

Tunga
2004-Sep-07, 08:11 PM
One megaton TNT equivalent estimate of damage is on the high side for this very small impactor. It is also moving very slow at 1.37 km/sec. If the asteroid was made out of dense rock (3000 kg/m3), the impact energy would be around 0.023 megatons.

Kaptain K
2004-Sep-07, 08:49 PM
Yeah, but! The impact velocity if it hit Earth would be on the order of 11 Km/sec (Earth's escape velocity).

CaptainToonces
2004-Sep-08, 02:23 AM
The best (see above) odds for any one day is on Sept. 17, 2070 (0.025000000% or 1 in 4000.)

Iīll be 106, probably close to the end (if the DNA people donīt come up with something). It would be nice having it as my grand finale. :)

How dreadfully selfish of you

AK
2004-Sep-08, 06:47 AM
(if the DNA people donīt come up with something).

Yeah yeah, we're working on it! :wink: