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bmpbmp
2004-Sep-28, 04:33 PM
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/toutatis_flyby_040927.html


While some rumors have suggested the asteroid's forecasted course might be off by enough to cause a collision with Earth, Sherrod agrees with Harris and other scientists that there is no chance for calamity. Sherrod has been monitoring Toutatis' movement since July 3, logging more than 500 observations that allow mapping of a precise trajectory.

"Although the actual path of it has indeed varied a slight bit from the original calculated, there is absolutely no chance of a physical encounter or impact with Earth," he said.

Grizzly
2004-Sep-28, 04:41 PM
Because you seem to worry very easily?

----
Estne tibi forte magna feles fulva et planissima?
Do you by chance happen to own a large, yellowish, very flat cat?

George
2004-Sep-28, 05:05 PM
Oh ye of little faith....What me worry?


No space rock this big will pass so close in the next century, scientists say. And while similarly large asteroids have hit the planet in the distant past, none so big have come so close since astronomers have had the means to notice them...
We're safe from this size for 100 years. Or, does it mean we have problems this century but the next century will be ok. :)

I don't suppose the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud count. :P

Ut
2004-Sep-28, 07:40 PM
Because you seem to worry very easily?

----
Estne tibi forte magna feles fulva et planissima?
Do you by chance happen to own a large, yellowish, very flat cat?


Yeah, I'll second that.

Lurker
2004-Sep-28, 07:48 PM
Yeah... I like all the sensationalism... Nothing has changed really except we can see that the nieghborhood is a little rougher than we thought...

rigel
2004-Sep-28, 08:33 PM
Does a difference of a few kilometers out of a million really worry you?

George
2004-Sep-28, 11:32 PM
I assumed you were kidding, right bmpbmp? #-o

The BA's home page handles this cool as usual.

Musashi
2004-Sep-29, 12:11 AM
bmp is not kidding. Anytime something like this is nearing, he comes around and asks us if he should build a shelter. He falls easily for the scare tactics of boards like GLP, and even though they have yet to be right, he still has faith in their predictions.

George
2004-Sep-29, 12:17 AM
Thanks Musashi. I tend to stay stuck on the glib side of things. Just havin too much fun I suppose. :)

Musashi
2004-Sep-29, 12:18 AM
Don't let me spoil the fun, just a heads up.

:)

Btw, Hi bmpbmp, how is life?

Grand Vizier
2004-Sep-29, 02:47 AM
I would not want to discourage bmpbmp from posting these anxious questions.

But I do think it sad that he/she finds the sky a source of fear rather than a source of wonderment. This I find it hard to imagine.

Peter B
2004-Sep-29, 06:38 AM
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/toutatis_flyby_040927.html


"Although the actual path of it has indeed varied a slight bit from the original calculated, there is absolutely no chance of a physical encounter or impact with Earth," he said.



bmpbmp

You seem to be worried about this paragraph, on the basis that if our calculations are out, Toutatis might hit the Earth, despite what this guy says.

Well, I can't stop you worrying, because you seem to do that very well. But put it this way: Toutatis's orbit is known with considerable accuracy; not as well as the major planets' orbits, but well enough that we know IT WON'T HIT THE EARTH.

Think of this analogy. You're on a golf course, standing behind the tee while Tiger Woods tees up. It's a par 3 hole, and Tiger tells you he's going to place the ball 20 centimetres from the pin.

Will he place it right there? Probably not, but it'll be close.

If not, does that mean there's any danger you might be hit by the ball? Definitely not, because we know the ball's course well enough in advance that there's no way it's going to fly backwards off the tee and hit you.

Do you understand?

Argos
2004-Sep-29, 01:17 PM
Well, Toutatis has just passed. We´re still alive! Lets celebrate. :D

bigsplit
2004-Sep-29, 02:10 PM
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/toutatis_flyby_040927.html


"Although the actual path of it has indeed varied a slight bit from the original calculated, there is absolutely no chance of a physical encounter or impact with Earth," he said.



bmpbmp

You seem to be worried about this paragraph, on the basis that if our calculations are out, Toutatis might hit the Earth, despite what this guy says.

Well, I can't stop you worrying, because you seem to do that very well. But put it this way: Toutatis's orbit is known with considerable accuracy; not as well as the major planets' orbits, but well enough that we know IT WON'T HIT THE EARTH.

Think of this analogy. You're on a golf course, standing behind the tee while Tiger Woods tees up. It's a par 3 hole, and Tiger tells you he's going to place the ball 20 centimetres from the pin.

Will he place it right there? Probably not, but it'll be close.

If not, does that mean there's any danger you might be hit by the ball? Definitely not, because we know the ball's course well enough in advance that there's no way it's going to fly backwards off the tee and hit you.

Do you understand?

That is Tiger, If I am hitting the ball you better watch out!!!

russ_watters
2004-Sep-29, 05:30 PM
Because you seem to worry very easily?



Yeah, I'll second that. Yeah, thats the only reason I can think of too.
I would not want to discourage bmpbmp from posting these anxious questions.

But I do think it sad that he/she finds the sky a source of fear rather than a source of wonderment. This I find it hard to imagine. Ehh, if we could be helpful, we'd be able to teach bmpbmp some critical thinking skills so s/he wouldn't need to ask. So far, we've failed miserably.

John Dlugosz
2004-Sep-29, 08:53 PM
Ehh, if we could be helpful, we'd be able to teach bmpbmp some critical thinking skills so s/he wouldn't need to ask. So far, we've failed miserably.

Hey, at least he asks! Gets a reality check from a more reliable source, instead of beleiving whatever he reads. Don't discourage that.

Grand Vizier
2004-Sep-29, 11:48 PM
Ehh, if we could be helpful, we'd be able to teach bmpbmp some critical thinking skills so s/he wouldn't need to ask. So far, we've failed miserably.

Hey, at least he asks! Gets a reality check from a more reliable source, instead of beleiving whatever he reads. Don't discourage that.

Absolutely. And the way the media (never mind the woo-woos) treat these stories sometimes, we can't blame some people for being a tad anxious now and then.

AGN Fuel
2004-Sep-30, 03:32 AM
I hope that you are breathing a little easier today, bmpbmp. :wink:

(The doomsayers were flat out wrong again....do you see a trend here?)

Peter B
2004-Sep-30, 03:39 AM
Ehh, if we could be helpful, we'd be able to teach bmpbmp some critical thinking skills so s/he wouldn't need to ask. So far, we've failed miserably.

Hey, at least he asks! Gets a reality check from a more reliable source, instead of beleiving whatever he reads. Don't discourage that.

Point taken, John.

Sorry, bmpbmp, if I came across a little agro.

John Dlugosz
2004-Oct-01, 05:39 AM
(The doomsayers were flat out wrong again....do you see a trend here?)

Yea... impact events, planetary aalignments, and anything having to do with astronomy: don't listen to them. Florocarbons from spray cans and A/C units: wise up before it's too late. Hard to tell the difference sometimes, if not an expert in the subject.

--John

bmpbmp
2004-Oct-01, 12:02 PM
Thank You everyone for your kindness. I am sorry if I come on a little worry some but I dont understand astronomy I am reading up on it slowly slowly but on the net it is hard when you do a search on space you get an even number of good sites along with an even number of woo-woo sites so sometimes hard to tell which are facts and with are not.

George
2004-Oct-01, 12:12 PM
Thank You everyone for your kindness. I am sorry if I come on a little worry some but I dont understand astronomy I am reading up on it slowly slowly but on the net it is hard when you do a search on space you get an even number of good sites along with an even number of woo-woo sites so sometimes hard to tell which are facts and with are not.
No doubt, your statement touches the very heart of this board. It's hard to learn the truth if one does not seek it. You did! =D>

Nowhere Man
2004-Oct-01, 12:29 PM
As you say, the WWW, while convenient, can serve up more garbage than pearls. Visit your local library and browse the astronomy section (520 in the Dewey Decimal System). Talk to the librarians and explain what you want. They can and will help you.

Fred

Grand Vizier
2004-Oct-01, 01:11 PM
Thank You everyone for your kindness. I am sorry if I come on a little worry some but I dont understand astronomy I am reading up on it slowly slowly but on the net it is hard when you do a search on space you get an even number of good sites along with an even number of woo-woo sites so sometimes hard to tell which are facts and with are not.

No worries, bmpbmp. But what you need is a decent Links page. And it just so happens that the website attached to this BB has such a page:

Bad Astronomy Links (http://www.badastronomy.com/info/links.html)

There's a lot there, but in particular, for basic astronomy:

Nick Strobel's astronomy lectures (http://www.astronomynotes.com/)

...is a good starting point. And you can always ask here if you want something clarified (or muddied up further, sometimes :) )

George
2004-Oct-01, 03:08 PM
There's a lot there, but in particular, for basic astronomy:

Nick Strobel's astronomy lectures (http://www.astronomynotes.com/)

...is a good starting point. And you can always ask here if you want something clarified (or muddied up further, sometimes :) )
Great site, thanks. 8)

John Dlugosz
2004-Oct-02, 01:16 AM
Thank You everyone for your kindness. I am sorry if I come on a little worry some but I dont understand astronomy I am reading up on it slowly slowly but on the net it is hard when you do a search on space you get an even number of good sites along with an even number of woo-woo sites so sometimes hard to tell which are facts and with are not.

I'd reomend anything written by Asimov. As I recall, he had a series of "how did we come to learn about..." which gives more meta-information, and helps one understand better.

I've also found books at the store that looked interesting but turned out to be nonsense. So feel free to ask before buying.

If you think you come across too much as "worrying", just pare it down to a simple request for facts or verification. That is respected among science types in general. E.g.



I appeal to the knowledgable members here for guidance.

I read about insert subject at insert link, and as a layman I don't know if that source is trustworthy. So could I get clued in as to whether it's accurate, hype, or just nonesense?


Personally, I'd never make fun of that. Having participated on both ends of the process, as a novice in some subjects and an leading expert in others, I think that's the gist of it.

Specifically, it is short and easy to understand; it conveys that this is a serious request for information; it indicates the level of experience of the requestor and the depth expected of the reply; and it contains specific details of the problem, in this case a clickable URL of the article or book in question; and it is respectful to the reader (it never hurts to lay it on thick!).

In the forums where I used to hold court, that would be on my short list to answer.

--John[/i][/quote]

Mr. Milton Banana
2004-Oct-02, 02:21 AM
Might I suggest reading Carl Sagan's books? Start with Cosmos.

It's a great introduction to astronomy, in my opinion.

:)