View Full Version : In case of NEO impact

2013-Apr-14, 12:45 PM
Hy to everybody,
In case of certain impact from neo asteroid classified in 8-10 degree of Palermo scale, which is the official procedure to communicate to the world of the imminent impact?
I'm sorry for the question and awfull English.
I will thank the team for your eventual reply.
Cheers Gonano.

2013-Apr-14, 06:27 PM
"Official procedure"? I don't think it would work that way. But you are asking something that is a common movie myth.

The JPL NEO project would post the data of the NEO discovery. Astronomers from all over the world, professional and amateur alike, would be interested. There would be no way such information would be secret and that one agency would have a monopoly on said data. People do own telescopes, you know. A lot of NEOs are even discovered by amateurs.

2013-Apr-14, 07:16 PM
No i mean other things, not sure like a common film.
I know that a similar news is coming out soon as beskeptical has illustrated in perfect mood but i wonder if there is a procedure to communicate it officially, if a similar procedure exists to avoid dangerous and stupid speculations.
For example,in my opinion, this type of event could be done throught an United Nation president message, after the scientific control of Minor planet center that dipends from IAU or adopting a similar protocol to avoid dangerous confusions.
Thanks for your reply, beskeptical.
Cheers Gonano.

2013-Apr-14, 09:47 PM
My mid size city Jacksonville, Florida has a full time emergency coordinator. Local people would likely keep him advised that the asteroid will miss Earth by 70,000 kilometers plus or minus 80,000 kilometers in 4 days or whatever. The news media would report this also, and talking heads would analyze where it might hit, and estimate the probability that it would hit in or close to our city = likely about one in 100,000. Recomended preparation would be much like for hurricanes which threaten the city about 200 times per century, but typically do only minor damage. Beach communities would be encouraged to evacuate if it was likely to hit in the Atlantic Ocean a short distance from our city. A general evacuation probably would not be ordered as the roads to the West are only adequit for about 5% of our population per day and there would likely be a possibility of it hitting West of our city 50 kilometers or more. Likely about 5% would decide to go somewhere else, so the roads would be crowded anyway. I told the coordinator that I10 should have 2 more lanes West bound and the beach people should pay the cost as the rest of us probably can't leave Jacksonvile if the beach communities evacuate first = massive traffic jam. Worse there are only accomdations for about 50,000 refergees in the 200 kilometers to the West of here, so the escape routes would plugged with vehicles that ran out of fuel. For Jacksonville and about 100 kilometers farther North there does not appear to be any low or medium cost preparations that are practical. About 50 kilometers South of Jacksonville is highway 16, then highway 100, 26 and 20 going West, but these are two lanes or less going West so these people are better off only because there are fewer of them. About one million people live in Jacksonville and near by. Neil

2013-Apr-14, 10:08 PM
By the time this thing was going to hit the planet with certainty, it would have gone viral and there would be few people who didn't already know about it. Every country's astronomers would likely already be advising their respective governments. There would be zero need for a UN pronouncement, not to mention, we don't exactly get UN announcements on anything. Our President would likely talk to other countries' leaders individually.

If the UN happened to be meeting at the time, you might see it become the topic everyone was addressing.

Evacuating coastlines might be something that different countries would implement, so the federal governments would likely be contacting state emergency managers who would then notify local managers like Neilzero is describing.

I still think you have the mythical version of this kind of event in your thinking, rather than what would actually happen.

2013-Apr-15, 11:56 AM
By the time this thing was going to hit the planet with certainty, it would have gone viral and there would be few people who didn't already know about it.
My thoughts exactly. With the number of people that would be aware of it, several would be speaking to the media.
For a politician (especially the UN), they are going to take their time to "prepare a statement".

Zwart Gat
2013-Apr-18, 02:37 PM
I'm sure hoards of government bureaucrats are sitting around waiting for that once in a million years event, and plan to feed themselves on tax money that way for many thousands of generations. For sure, bright people who otherwise could've created valuable things, but now just sit around and live off other peoples money (so that they have to fire people and file for bancruptcy) because of their extremely high salaries and lack of need to put in an effort. And then when it actually happens, those bureaucrats will have no clue and do nothing. That's the only way a government can work, that is proven not only by all experience, but also by pure logic.

Some teenager with a telescope in her backyard will alert the world, though.

2013-Apr-27, 07:00 PM
Zwart Gat,

CQ's "no-politics" rule (rule 12) allows for some very limited exceptions for politics directly related to space exploration and science. But your post does not fit that exception, it is just an off-topic anti-government rant. This will earn you an infraction.