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Ara Pacis
2013-Aug-02, 05:01 PM
I like that quote and description from Alan Greenspan. I think it applies in this field.

I also like: "Past performance does not guarantee future results"

To paraphrase a popular meme. "Science is boring, throw rocks at it."

SkepticJ
2013-Aug-02, 10:40 PM
Pity Greenspan didn't direct criticism at his own beliefs before the damage was done.

True, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it would be unreasonable to conclude that a long term trend would suddenly stop without a reason to suspect that it will.

That's quite possibly the most ignorant meme that I've seen in a long time. The entire modern world is built upon the fruits of scientific inquiry. The supreme irony that this meme is transmitted over the internet.

grapes
2013-Aug-03, 09:53 AM
I like that quote and description from Alan Greenspan. I think it applies in this field.

I also like: "Past performance does not guarantee future results"

To paraphrase a popular meme. "Science is boring, throw rocks at it."

This ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/dotcon/historical/shiller.html ):


When Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, used the term "irrational exuberance" to describe the behavior of stock market investors in an otherwise staid speech on December 5, 1996, the world fixated on those words. Stock markets dropped precipitously.

Public confidence can drop "precipitously"--4%

Paul Wally
2013-Aug-03, 11:18 AM
I like that quote and description from Alan Greenspan. I think it applies in this field.

I also like: "Past performance does not guarantee future results"

To paraphrase a popular meme. "Science is boring, throw rocks at it."

May I ask what this has to do with life in space?

Spacedude
2013-Aug-03, 01:38 PM
Perhaps it means that Goldilocks had a 1 in 3 chance of finding the bowl that was "just right" but in astronomical terms it's a bowl that's 1 out of a billion?

Selfsim
2013-Aug-04, 05:16 AM
Irrational Exuberance
I like that quote and description from Alan Greenspan. I think it applies in this field.

I also like: "Past performance does not guarantee future results"

To paraphrase a popular meme. "Science is boring, throw rocks at it."May I ask what this has to do with life in space?Well, I'll have a crack at it (just for fun): :)

- Irrational Exuberance: The emotional response promoted by media reporters, who typically hype any discovery loosely interpretable by life models, as 'evidence' for the existence of exo-life (for eg). (UT is one such culprit);

- Past performance does not guarantee future results: Well, how about: "That life exists on Earth, does not guarantee that life will be discovered elsewhere in the future". Or another example might be, say: "That the Standard Model of particle physics successfully predicted something called a 'Higgs Boson' (in the past), does not guarantee that predictions about exo-life (in the future), carry the same precision, or accuracy".

- Science is boring, throw rocks at it: Critically appraise every piece of mundane data normally interpreted as so called 'evidence' for the existence of exo-life. Ask: "How else might this data be interpreted .. (even if it does come from scientists, or via some life hypothesis/model)".

??? :)

ASTRO BOY
2013-Aug-04, 06:02 AM
May I ask what this has to do with life in space?



I ask the same thing.

ASTRO BOY
2013-Aug-04, 06:17 AM
Well, I'll have a crack at it (just for fun): :)

- Irrational Exuberance: The emotional response promoted by media reporters, who typically hype any discovery loosely interpretable by life models, as 'evidence' for the existence of exo-life (for eg). (UT is one such culprit);


Sure....It's also a more human response to accentuate the positive....especially when the chances of exo life is a far greater chance than thinking we are alone, especially with numbers and extent.




- Past performance does not guarantee future results: Well, how about: "That life exists on Earth, does not guarantee that life will be discovered elsewhere in the future". Or another example might be, say: "That the Standard Model of particle physics successfully predicted something called a 'Higgs Boson' (in the past), does not guarantee that predictions about exo-life (in the future), carry the same precision, or accuracy".



Again size, extent and numbers would point towards ETL, being somewhere, sometime, accepting the fact that the size and extent also reduce dramatically the chances of contact.






- Science is boring, throw rocks at it: Critically appraise every piece of mundane data normally interpreted as so called 'evidence' for the existence of exo-life. Ask: "How else might this data be interpreted .. (even if it does come from scientists, or via some life hypothesis/model)".

??? :)




Sure thing...Most certainly critically appraise all and sundry, but careful that critical appraisal does not turn into blind cynicism.

Solfe
2013-Aug-04, 06:38 AM
I ask the same thing.

:) It's a trap! :)

Selfsim
2013-Aug-04, 07:03 AM
I also tend to think that the self-reflexive elements of the Anthropic Principle in Science, also tend to highlight the (perhaps) truisms of 'irrational exuberance', 'past performance not guaranteeing future results' and, (perhaps), justifies to some extent: 'Science is boring, throw rocks at it' ...(?)

Selfsim
2013-Aug-04, 07:54 AM
I also tend to think that the self-reflexive elements of the Anthropic Principle in Science, also tend to highlight the (perhaps) truisms of 'irrational exuberance', 'past performance not guaranteeing future results' and, (perhaps), justifies to some extent: 'Science is boring, throw rocks at it' ...(?)... Sort of like this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DrawingHands.jpg)... the human hand emerges from a backdrop (the universe) and draws another image in its own likeness ... just like the search for Earth-like life elsewhere ..

Whilst we can provide reasons for searching for more instances of our own likeness, the fact is that we have no other choice in the matter.

Whilst we try hard to convince ourselves there are reasons for this, is there not also a semblance of yielding to the 'irrational exuberance', inherent in the 'hunt for the Holy Grail' of Astro-Science(?)

ASTRO BOY
2013-Aug-06, 04:31 AM
There has been far more achieved throughout the history of science by those that are enthusiastic and exuberent in their quest, then the apathy of others.