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View Full Version : So, Apparently, we are not Doomed (Yellowstone)



Squink
2015-Oct-21, 06:13 PM
New ‘geospeedometer’ confirms super-eruptions have a short fuse (http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2015/10/new-geospeedometer-confirms-super-eruptions-have-a-short-fuse/)

“The hot spot under Yellowstone National Park has produced several super-eruptions in the past. The measurements that have been made indicate that this magma body doesn’t currently have a high-enough percentage of melt to produce a super-eruption. But now we know that, when or if it does reach such a state, we will only have a few hundred years to prepare ourselves for the consequences,”
It all has to do with measuring the size and shape of the melt inclusions in magma suspended quartz crystals.
You can tell the time between inclusion formation and eruption, by looking at the size and shape of the inclusions.
Turns out that for massive eruptions, it's usually only a couple hundred years.

arakish
2015-Oct-25, 09:14 AM
Although it is off-topic. To answer the subject.

Yes we are doomed.

Pollution.

rmfr

geonuc
2015-Oct-25, 10:58 AM
My interpretation of the article is that we are still doomed. If our response to climate change is any indication, having several hundred years advance warning of a supervolcano eruption will not be enough.

Interesting research.

Noclevername
2015-Oct-25, 11:20 AM
My interpretation of the article is that we are still doomed. If our response to climate change is any indication, having several hundred years advance warning of a supervolcano eruption will not be enough.

We have only had evidence of climate change since the 1950s, not several hundred years.

geonuc
2015-Oct-25, 11:35 AM
We have only had evidence of climate change since the 1950s, not several hundred years.

Perhaps you missed the sarcasm.

Noclevername
2015-Oct-25, 11:39 AM
Perhaps you missed the sarcasm.

Yes, I did. What indicators were there?

Squink
2015-Oct-26, 03:54 AM
My interpretation of the article is that we are still doomed.I like to take my dooms one at a time, rather than all bundled up.
Each has a special kind of horror that's worth savoring.

Yeah, interesting research. It'd never have occurred to me to look at included blebs like that, but then I didn't do a PhD in geology either.

John Mendenhall
2015-Oct-26, 08:55 PM
So it's not going to haooen for a while.

Wait, what was that rumble I just felt?

danscope
2015-Oct-27, 06:13 PM
There is no such thing as an extinct volcano. And life is quite tenuous when near a super volcano.

"Wait......maybe they're right. Maybe....we should study these things with an eye to caution, pool our sources of learning and get a better handle on
such dangerous places. Maybe....................... Nah !!!!! " Steve Martin

Trebuchet
2015-Oct-27, 06:48 PM
It'd better hold off until after next June. We've already got reservations.

Lobo
2015-Nov-20, 05:43 PM
My interpretation of the article is that we are still doomed. If our response to climate change is any indication, having several hundred years advance warning of a supervolcano eruption will not be enough.

Interesting research.

Exactly.

Lobo
2015-Nov-20, 05:45 PM
There is no such thing as an extinct volcano. And life is quite tenuous when near a super volcano.

"Wait......maybe they're right. Maybe....we should study these things with an eye to caution, pool our sources of learning and get a better handle on
such dangerous places. Maybe....................... Nah !!!!! " Steve Martin

Throw that life inside the volcano, than we will see if it will still be alive-ooops, nope it would not be alive, it would be destroyed inside the volcano-where lava kills everything and everyone-when it comes to life.

grapes
2015-Nov-20, 06:14 PM
I've pointed this out for the past twenty years--three major eruptions starting at 2000kya, another at 1300kya, and another at 600kya

Sure, we're due, in another 100 thousand years. If it hasn't been slowing down...



I didn't watch it, what does it say?

By coincidence, 700,000 years is roughly the time between the great eruptions of the Yellowstone caldera--2 million years ago, 1.3 mya, and 0.6 mya. So, anytime soon!

danscope
2015-Nov-20, 06:33 PM
I certainly hope you are right,Sir. We've all bet the farm :)

wuulf
2015-Nov-20, 07:25 PM
You're still doomed. You just won't all meet your doom at the same time or in the same way.

Ken G
2015-Nov-20, 11:43 PM
I've pointed this out for the past twenty years--three major eruptions starting at 2000kya, another at 1300kya, and another at 600kyaThose happen too frequently though. If you want the real killers, look for the things that happen every 10-100 million years!

danscope
2015-Nov-21, 12:38 AM
There are many indeed who would allow that Yellowstone is a very serious killer as it were. Maybe not as exciting as the stuff one gets in
science fiction , but never the less a disturbing reality.

Trebuchet
2015-Nov-21, 02:13 AM
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!

Eventually.

We don't know what of, but most likely it won't be Yellowstone, an asteroid, or Planet X. Cancer, car wrecks and heart attacks are more likely. Yellowstone is one of my favorite places on earth. It's not worrying me.

banquo's_bumble_puppy
2015-Nov-27, 12:48 PM
There is one in Italy and a bunch of others...Japan, etc... YouTube will enlighten you on doom.

Ara Pacis
2016-Mar-18, 08:34 AM
So, if it takes <500 years from crystal growth state in new magma, and present uplift at Yellowstone indicates new magma, does this suggest a super-eruption within the next 500 years?

Noisy Rhysling
2016-Mar-18, 02:17 PM
There is no such thing as an extinct volcano.

Depends on the definition. Volcano can move off the vent and become inert. So, is the mound of lava we see on the surface the volcano or is the vent beneath it the volcano?

danscope
2016-Mar-18, 05:00 PM
The " Caldera " beneath it is the real heart of the volcano. The ash cone is superfluous until it ruptures (Mt St Helens)
when the release of it's products .

Noisy Rhysling
2016-Mar-18, 07:27 PM
The " Caldera " beneath it is the real heart of the volcano. The ash cone is superfluous until it ruptures (Mt St Helens)
when the release of it's products .

Then we could have old volcanoes that haven't moved and new volcanoes that appear when the old cones move off the vent? Just trying to get it straight in my head. I'm not a vulcanologist. I have lived on the side of an active volcano, Mt. Etna, and that got me interested.

Noclevername
2016-Mar-18, 07:38 PM
Then we could have old volcanoes that haven't moved and new volcanoes that appear when the old cones move off the vent? Just trying to get it straight in my head. I'm not a vulcanologist. I have lived on the side of an active volcano, Mt. Etna, and that got me interested.

Yes. Think of the Hawaiian island chain, a line of volcanic sea mountains of diminishing size as you go east to west; as the sea bed moves over a hot spot, it grows newer and bigger islands, which eventually erode away.

Noisy Rhysling
2016-Mar-18, 10:26 PM
Yes. Think of the Hawaiian island chain, a line of volcanic sea mountains of diminishing size as you go east to west; as the sea bed moves over a hot spot, it grows newer and bigger islands, which eventually erode away.

Until you get to Midway.

geonuc
2016-Mar-19, 03:04 PM
The " Caldera " beneath it is the real heart of the volcano. The ash cone is superfluous until it ruptures (Mt St Helens)
when the release of it's products .
The caldera is the 'volcanic crater' formed by the eruption(s). It is not beneath the volcano.

geonuc
2016-Mar-19, 03:09 PM
So, is the mound of lava we see on the surface the volcano or is the vent beneath it the volcano?
Yes. The lava hill or mountain on the surface (often but not always cone-shaped), the vent (if active) and the magma chamber below all form the volcano system. However, the surface features (i.e., the cone or mountain) are what is commonly referred to as the volcano.

danscope
2016-Mar-19, 07:24 PM
Hi Geonuc, The Caldera under Yellowstone is about the size of Rhode Island. And there's not much of a cindercone left.
The caldera remains....lurking below. Look up " Caldera volcano " .

01101001
2016-Mar-19, 09:19 PM
I'm stuck on "under". How far below Yosemite do you feel the caldera is lurking?

Caldera (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caldera)


A caldera is a cauldron-like volcanic feature on large central volcanoes, a special sort of volcanic crater (from one to several kilometers in diameter), formed when a magma chamber was emptied.

Is the Yellowstone Caldera rim not in view?

Edit to answer my own question: Wikipedia: Yellowstone Caldera (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera) has a picture at the top of the aricle with "the caldera rim in the distance".

Trebuchet
2016-Mar-20, 04:20 AM
I'm stuck on "under". How far below Yosemite do you feel the caldera is lurking?

Caldera (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caldera)



Is the Yellowstone Caldera rim not in view?

Edit to answer my own question: Wikipedia: Yellowstone Caldera (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera) has a picture at the top of the aricle with "the caldera rim in the distance".

Yup. When we were there last summer, we passed several signs reading "Caldera Rim". And the hotspot has moved over time -- earlier activity was in Idaho.

geonuc
2016-Mar-20, 09:22 AM
Hi Geonuc, The Caldera under Yellowstone is about the size of Rhode Island. And there's not much of a cindercone left.
The caldera remains....lurking below. Look up " Caldera volcano " .
Thanks, I don't need to look anything up. I'll just refer to what I learned in volcanology class during my geology degree program.

01101001
2016-Mar-20, 01:18 PM
danscope: Magma chamber? Magma reservoir? Hotspot? They lie below Yellowstone (and the Yellowstone Caldera).

Image (http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2884266/thumbs/o-MAGMA-YELLOWSTONE-570.jpg) from Huffington Post: Vast Chamber Of Molten Rock Discovered Under Yellowstone ‘Supervolcano’ (http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/magma-yellowstone-supervolcano-video_n_7153948.html)

Squink
2016-Mar-20, 05:27 PM
earlier activity was in Idaho.Craters of the moon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craters_of_the_Moon_National_Monument_and_Preserve ) in Idaho is still throwing up cinder cones, within the last 2000 years. So things haven't entirely moved on.

Ara Pacis
2016-Mar-20, 07:00 PM
Thanks, I don't need to look anything up. I'll just refer to what I learned in volcanology class during my geology degree program.

To be fair, passing a degree program is no guarantee of knowledge. I have a friend with a geology degree who doesn't believe in climate change, and doesn't even believe that there's enough ice in the ice sheets to raise sea level by more than a few inches, much less over 200 feet.

Gillianren
2016-Mar-20, 09:01 PM
Sure, but I bet he knows the definition of "caldera."

bknight
2016-Mar-20, 09:40 PM
I've pointed this out for the past twenty years--three major eruptions starting at 2000kya, another at 1300kya, and another at 600kya

Sure, we're due, in another 100 thousand years. If it hasn't been slowing down...
There are error bars on those dates. From what I've read and watched, you are correct that the next eruption may be +/- 100 y from now. The article is interesting and I know the USGS has seismic monitoring stations all over the area attempting to monitor the magma chamber, growth and temperature, whether or nor crystal formation is a true identification remains to be seen.

Trebuchet
2016-Mar-20, 11:56 PM
Craters of the moon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craters_of_the_Moon_National_Monument_and_Preserve ) in Idaho is still throwing up cinder cones, within the last 2000 years. So things haven't entirely moved on.

Mostly by chance, we visited Craters of the Moon and Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in the same year a while back. More vegetation had regrown in Hawaii in 20 years than in Idaho in 2000. Rain does make a big difference!

geonuc
2016-Mar-21, 10:31 AM
To be fair, passing a degree program is no guarantee of knowledge. I have a friend with a geology degree who doesn't believe in climate change, and doesn't even believe that there's enough ice in the ice sheets to raise sea level by more than a few inches, much less over 200 feet.
Of course not, but as Gillianren implied, it's a pretty good bet that someone with a geology degree can correctly identify and define the big parts on a volcano. I generally don't have much to add to the scientific discussions on CQ - I learn far more than I contribute - but I'm not going to let bogus incorrect geology information stand when we have a member asking for help with the subject.

Sorry about your friend, but I bet he or she probably knows what a caldera is, too. Climate change is a slightly more advanced concept.

grapes
2016-Mar-21, 03:18 PM
I've pointed this out for the past twenty years--three major eruptions starting at 2000kya, another at 1300kya, and another at 600kya

Sure, we're due, in another 100 thousand years. If it hasn't been slowing down...


There are error bars on those dates. From what I've read and watched, you are correct that the next eruption may be +/- 100 y from now. The article is interesting and I know the USGS has seismic monitoring stations all over the area attempting to monitor the magma chamber, growth and temperature, whether or nor crystal formation is a true identification remains to be seen.
Yes, the dates are not an exact time table. However, just based on those dates, the next is 100,000 years from now. Not sure how it could be a minus 100 years from now. :)

Noclevername
2016-Mar-21, 03:25 PM
Not sure how it could be a minus 100 years from now. :)

Time Lord!

danscope
2016-Mar-22, 02:31 AM
Just in passing , from encyclopedia.com :
A caldera is a large, usually circular depression at the summit of a volcano . Most calderas are formed by subsidence or sinking of the central part of the volcano; a rare few are excavated by violent explosions.

Craters and calderas are distinct structures. Both are circular depressions at the tops of volcanoes, but a crater is much smaller than a caldera and is formed by the building up of material around a vent rather than by the subsidence of material below a cone.

A volcano's summit may subside in two ways. First, eruptions of large volumes of pumice or magma , or subterranean drainage of the latter to other areas, may empty a chamber beneath the volcano into which a portion of the cone collapses. Second, the summit of the volcano may act as a thin roof over a large magma chamber that breaks under its own weight and sinks, partly or wholly, into the magma beneath. The term cauldron is sometimes reserved for calderas formed by the foundering of a cone summit in underlying magma.

The largest volcanic structures in the world are resurgent calderas. Resurgent calderas form following intense volcanic eruptions comparable in violence to asteroid impacts. (None has occurred during historical times.) During such an eruption, vast ejections of volcanic material—in some cases, thousands of cubic miles of pumice and ash—excavate very wide underground chambers, much wider than the volcano itself. Large calderas, up to hundreds of square miles in extent, collapse into these chambers. After settling, the caldera floor resurges or bulges up again, lifted by the refilling magma chamber below. Is in the case of the 22 mile (35 km) wide Cerro Galan caldera in Argentina, which is visible as a whole only from orbit, resurgence has raised the center of the caldera to almost a mile (1500 m) above the point of lowest subsidence. "
Of course, there is more in the article.
To be fair, most volcanoes are NOT of this type, but as for the really dangerous ones.... er..yes.
Like Toseek says....." Most of what I know is through googling " .

bknight
2016-Mar-22, 02:38 AM
Yes, the dates are not an exact time table. However, just based on those dates, the next is 100,000 years from now. Not sure how it could be a minus 100 years from now. :)
Yes the minus was impossible, what I meant to say that it could be less than 100 k y with the error bars, perhaps much less.

Trebuchet
2016-Mar-22, 11:42 PM
Please make it after our visit next June.

Noisy Rhysling
2016-Mar-22, 11:50 PM
Please make it after our visit next June.

You mean after you get the Nimitz Greybooks sorted. ;)

Trebuchet
2016-Mar-30, 01:31 AM
You mean after you get the Nimitz Greybooks sorted. ;)

That's going to take a good deal longer.

bknight
2016-Mar-30, 02:22 PM
Please make it after our visit next June.
I visited Yellowstone every year until I was about 11-12(back in the 50's), it was a great place to explore and wonder what was happening. Have fun!

Trebuchet
2016-Mar-30, 09:56 PM
I visited Yellowstone every year until I was about 11-12(back in the 50's), it was a great place to explore and wonder what was happening. Have fun!

Me too, grew up in Billings. Continued until my late teens and have been back quite a few times since, including last June. We actually had reservations at the Old Faithful Inn in early September 1988. That got cancelled (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_fires_of_1988)....

Squink
2016-Mar-30, 11:54 PM
That got cancelled (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_fires_of_1988).... Kinda like the pine beetles, but 20 years early.
They bulldozed my favorite campground at Rocky Mountain park after the trees all died.
Crater lake is starting to look a little ragged as well.

bknight
2016-Mar-31, 11:53 AM
Me too, grew up in Billings. Continued until my late teens and have been back quite a few times since, including last June. We actually had reservations at the Old Faithful Inn in early September 1988. That got cancelled (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_fires_of_1988)....
They put those fires out as quickly as possible back then, than the biologists cried foul. One tree, I don't remember which one requires fires for the pine cone to open and release seeds, so in a way fires are good, but the perfect storm got them that year. I moved away from Wyo. in 69, and haven't been back since.

rigel
2016-May-05, 12:11 AM
Grew up in Greybull WY and Lewistown MT in 50's also. Been to yellowstone many times a year. Winter is especially beautiful. The most dangerous thing there are trees falling during high winds

Tom Mazanec
2016-May-06, 03:39 AM
BTW, Harry Turtledove wrote a good trilogy on a Yellowstone eruption (except I think he exaggerated the duration of the volcanic winter).

profloater
2016-Oct-06, 06:30 PM
Anybody seen this? From the smithsonian?
http://volcano.si.axismaps.io/

grapes
2016-Oct-07, 07:01 AM
Anybody seen this? From the smithsonian?
http://volcano.si.axismaps.io/
Interesting animation. For the first twenty years (1960-1979) I was wondering why they even had an icon for emissions (there are none depicted). Maybe that's when they first started collecting data?