View Full Version : Probability model for Aurora sighting

2015-Dec-10, 02:19 PM
Do you think it is possible to estimate the probability to see the aurora borealis if certain ideal conditions are fulfilled: The sky is dark and cloud free. Watch the sky for at least for 1 hour. Look in the direction NW-N.

Lets say that these conditions are fulfilled and then the actual measured kp-index is for example 3, when you are geographically positioned in a "kp-zone" between 4-5, see for example http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-school/all-about-the-kp-index/ . Then the probablity to see aurora would be x%.

I would like to plot the probability in a matrix where the kp zones 0-1, 1-2 etc. is on the y-axis and the actual measured kp-index value is on the x-axis 0, 1, 2 etc. See attached example:


What do you think?