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John Kierein
2005-Feb-19, 01:16 PM
Sunspot 735 flared (M) and ejected a CME a little bit ago. This was not expected according to Spaceweather.

beskeptical
2005-Feb-20, 05:25 AM
After years of daily watching I have noticed space weather forecasters are even less accurate than Earth weather forecasters.

The other day there was a brief little increase in auroral activity and there wasn't a cloud in sight so to speak. No flares, no coronal hole, no prediction.

You'll notice the % values in the predictions never say 100% nor 0. They never seem to know for sure which way exactly a CME was ejected. I wasn't surprised by the M3 flare even though I wasn't expecting it.

Kaptain K
2005-Feb-20, 10:25 AM
If the universe always did exactly as expected, scientsts would be out of work! :o

frogesque
2005-Feb-20, 11:09 AM
If the universe always did exactly as expected, scientsts would be out of work! :o

:lol: Yep, one of my interests is also aurora watching. Getting the Kp above 7, the magnetic orientation below -10, the moon phase and social obligations to coincide at the right time only to find we have a carpet cloud base of about 200ft can be a little frustrating to say the least but when we do get a good show of lights it makes it all worth while and you then know why I drive 20 or so miles out of town for some dark sky and then wait 4 hours or more in the freezing cold for that substorm to suddenly apear. I take all forecasting with a pinch of salt, the only aurora prediction you can get is looking out your door and seeing what's actually happening in the sky and even then, by the time you've found a good location it could be all over.

mickal555
2005-Feb-20, 11:41 AM
I take it all with a flake of pepper

jnik
2005-Feb-20, 07:46 PM
After years of daily watching I have noticed space weather forecasters are even less accurate than Earth weather forecasters.
Uh, yeah, think about how little we have to work with. The models have had far less time to mature, they take significantly more computing power, and we only have a few measurement points (spacecraft). (To be fair, I was talking to a meteorological friend the other day, and she said the NWS has been cut back to two balloon launches per station per day).

The focus is also on "conditions at Earth" rather than "xyz county."

Predicting when a CME will happen is the hardest bit of the whole job since our understanding of the solar dynamo is so rudimentary.

So, no surprises really. Still working on it...

Hamlet
2005-Feb-20, 08:13 PM
For anyone that's interested, I made a short MPEG movie of the Feb 19, 2005 CME (http://www.csh.rit.edu/~steve/Movies/CME-20050219.mpg).

This file is about 1.2 Mb, so those on slow links be warned.

Lance
2005-Feb-20, 08:44 PM
You can find SOHO animations in a couple of different places alread compiled.

The Last 48 Hours (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/rtmovies.html)

Daily MPEGS (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/)


For example, here are the C2 Daily (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050219_c2.mpg) and C3 Daily (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050219_c3.mpg) for 2005-02-19 which include the OP event.

frogesque
2005-Feb-20, 09:07 PM
I didn't want to start another thread and it's kind of relevent here to us 'sun worshipers'

spaceweather.com: Solar Filament (http://www.spaceweather.com/)

Full image (http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2005/20feb05/piepol.jpg)

Where did that one spring from? :o

Edit: Changed image to link because it messed up the page format.

Hamlet
2005-Feb-20, 09:34 PM
You can find SOHO animations in a couple of different places alread compiled.

The Last 48 Hours (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/rtmovies.html)

Daily MPEGS (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/)


For example, here are the C2 Daily (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050219_c2.mpg) and C3 Daily (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050219_c3.mpg) for 2005-02-19 which include the OP event.

Thanks Lance. I know about these. I've just been trying my hand at making my own movie and thought I'd share it with the group.

Jpax2003
2005-Feb-20, 09:47 PM
Are we sure that filament is one long one and not two short ones connected in the middle to the sun? I'm wondering when someone will start calling it the "crack in the sun" Must be from Planet X, forget Earth Changes, Sun Changes is all the rage now!

I think we need better space weather forcasting. To that end I think one of the first commercial space ventures may be to send several solar observatories into solar orbit to monitor solar storms to help protect power distribution, communications, and aerospace transportation industries.

frogesque
2005-Feb-21, 12:04 AM
Are we sure that filament is one long one and not two short ones connected in the middle to the sun? I'm wondering when someone will start calling it the "crack in the sun" Must be from Planet X, forget Earth Changes, Sun Changes is all the rage now!

I think we need better space weather forcasting. To that end I think one of the first commercial space ventures may be to send several solar observatories into solar orbit to monitor solar storms to help protect power distribution, communications, and aerospace transportation industries.

It's spring - the chicken's about to hatch and gobble us up - we're all gonna die I tell ya!!!!!.

Actually looking at that full pic there are a number of filiaments active. I took the long one to be continous with a feathery top but you could be right and it's bifurcated. Heck that's worse - it's developing legs!!!!

Agree, it would be great to have a better understanding of our bright neighbour but coms and power utils are pretty stretched at the moment and I don't see them stumping up cash for a better monitoring system. :(

Kaptain K
2005-Feb-21, 03:57 AM
I'm wondering when someone will start calling it the "crack in the sun"
How about now?
See the thread on GLP titled "The Sun is CRACKING!!!!!" :o :roll:

Russ
2005-Feb-21, 09:09 PM
I'm wondering when someone will start calling it the "crack in the sun"
How about now?
See the thread on GLP titled "The Sun is CRACKING!!!!!" :o :roll:

Would you please provide a link? I went over there and didn't find what you are talking about. :cry:

Lance
2005-Feb-21, 10:46 PM
I'm wondering when someone will start calling it the "crack in the sun"
How about now?
See the thread on GLP titled "The Sun is CRACKING!!!!!" :o :roll:

Would you please provide a link? I went over there and didn't find what you are talking about. :cry:

Well, it looks like there are now two of them. There's The Sun is CRACKING!!!!! (http://godlikeproductions.com/bbs/message.php?message=82581&topic=3&showdate=2/20/05) and there's Holy Cow! The Sun is cracking like an egg! (http://godlikeproductions.com/bbs/message.php?message=82421&topic=3&showdate=2/20/05) (Title slightly modified)


What do you think will hatch out of the sun egg?

Evan
2005-Feb-21, 11:04 PM
What do you think will hatch out of the sun egg?

Solar powered Easter bunnies?

frogesque
2005-Feb-21, 11:17 PM
What do you think will hatch out of the sun egg?

Solar powered Easter bunnies?

Oooh Yummy, death by Hot Chocolate!

Jpax2003
2005-Feb-21, 11:48 PM
What do you think will hatch out of the sun egg?

Solar powered Easter bunnies?

Oooh Yummy, death by Hot Chocolate!Cadbury's "New Egg" aka Nova Ova?

beskeptical
2005-Feb-22, 01:49 AM
Try this gif file, there's a fun little blast (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2small.gif) on it. New flare today but not Earth directed. Takes a sec to download.

mickal555
2005-Feb-22, 06:32 AM
they're so funny.....

Argos
2005-Feb-22, 02:32 PM
After years of daily watching I have noticed space weather forecasters are even less accurate than Earth weather forecasters.


Weather forecast relies on sophisticated computer modeling, made possible because we can afford precise measurements on Earth. I canīt tell you if this applies to the solar activity research.

Editing: I just saw jnikīs post. :oops:

John Kierein
2005-Mar-01, 04:57 PM
2 or 3 CMEs today 3-1; but there are no sunspots obvious anywhere on the sun - and no flares - so they probably come from the farside.