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Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-22, 11:39 PM
*COUGH* Nancy is on to something, RECORD floods, NUMEROUS tornadoes, EARTHQUAKES and TSUNAMIS, SUPER VOLCANOE in Yellowstone, SNOW in CALIFORNIA. There's no question, something IS wrong no matter how you cut it. 70+ Tornadoes and Waterspouts in California since December 2004, 240+ Funnel Clouds since November, 30+ Severe Thunderstorms since december, SOMETHING IS HAPPENING. But what? 32+ Inches of RAIN in California -- Since January 3rd. What is going on?

Note: A fairly Large chunk of Ice has melted into the pacific ocean in late december.

What is happening?

The Supreme Canuck
2005-Feb-22, 11:42 PM
It's just your usual bad weather. It's been pretty normal around here.

dgruss23
2005-Feb-22, 11:51 PM
There's always bad weather happening somewhere.

Nicolas
2005-Feb-22, 11:55 PM
My mother asked me over the internet yesterday how much snow I had overhere already. None. It was snowing really hard where she was. Today my s.o. asked if it was snowing hard overhere. Nope, no snow seen. Overthere there was a nice white layer and it continued to snow really hard. They live just 120 km more to the south (northern hemisphere, that is). They had sunshine between the snow, I only had massive sunshine the whole morning, and some clouds in the afternoon.

I could conclude that we've had abnormally little snowfall this winter, while they would say they've had their share. Not every year and every place is the same year after year concerning the weather.

Wolverine
2005-Feb-23, 12:11 AM
There's always bad weather happening somewhere.

Indeed.

The only thing "wrong" is that some are eager to (errantly) attribute meteorological events to fringe subject matter or eschatology, and a quick peek around less-than-skeptical corners of the web shows this happens unfortunately often.

paulie jay
2005-Feb-23, 12:44 AM
There will always be periods where the weather is really rough. Every few years there are record snowfalls here, massive hurricanes there. Why, here in Australia much of the eastern states have been in drought for over 2 years. Now, because I'm 35 years old, I can easily remember numerous times in the past when the weather was not treating us kindly.

Majin Vegeta, I think that somewhere in another thread you mentioned that you are on the "young" side - about 13 or 14 years old? I would imagine that most 14 year olds living in Sydney would not be able to remember the last time we were in severe drought. As far as they are concerned, the weather only turned bad two years ago and before that everything was fine! Something must be going on to cause it! Of course us older fellas have all been around long enough to know that there will always be times when the weather is good, and there will always be times when the weather is foul.

I can only suggest in the nicest possible way that you get a few more years of experience under your belt before leaping to amazing conclusions. Wild wetaher is nothing new. :wink: :)

Maksutov
2005-Feb-23, 12:49 AM
The most important thing here is you ought to do something about that cough, before it gets any worse.

Brady Yoon
2005-Feb-23, 12:56 AM
There's always bad weather happening somewhere.

Yup. 40,000 thunderstorms every day if I remember correctly. :o

Brady Yoon
2005-Feb-23, 12:58 AM
*COUGH* Nancy is on to something, RECORD floods, NUMEROUS tornadoes, EARTHQUAKES and TSUNAMIS, SUPER VOLCANOE in Yellowstone, SNOW in CALIFORNIA. There's no question, something IS wrong no matter how you cut it. 70+ Tornadoes and Waterspouts in California since December 2004, 240+ Funnel Clouds since November, 30+ Severe Thunderstorms since december, SOMETHING IS HAPPENING. But what? 32+ Inches of RAIN in California -- Since January 3rd. What is going on?

Note: A fairly Large chunk of Ice has melted into the pacific ocean in late december.

What is happening?

Nothing's wrong. If this happens for ten years continuously, then you can say something's wrong. :wink:

Don't even get started with Nancy. The premise that Planet X is going to affect our weather is absurd and has been debunked too many times.

A'a
2005-Feb-23, 01:41 AM
If I remember correctly there was record setting rain (although not quite as bad) in Southern California about 12 years ago too. That was during another El Nino year similar to this one. It happens.

And I say this after one of these waterspouts hit my house over the weekend.

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 01:47 AM
Yeah, I remember the weather from the last El Nino cycle. Pretty much the same as this.

Let's see, from the OP:

What floods (or rather, what records)? Numerous tornados where? And, more numerous than normal? Super Volcano, blah. Snow in California!!!!!!!!!! Oh wait, California gets snow every year.

Where are you getting the 70+ and 240+ numbers? I have a strange feeling I would have heard about, living IN California and all. I do know there was a tornado warning here a few dyas ago, not sure if a tornado ever manifested. Severe Thunderstorms? Severe? Where? And is it really that different from normal weather in the area? My guess is no. 32 inches of rain is still what, only the 5th highest recorded?

Remain Calm.

Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-23, 01:49 AM
Tornadoes don't happen this often in CALIFORNIA, On the weather channel they said maybe 1 every 10 years in southern california compared to the 60+ since December. :o

Bender
2005-Feb-23, 01:50 AM
Majin Vegeta, climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. As others have said there is always unusual weather somewhere in the world. This year there will be, somewhere in the world, above average temperatures, below average temperatures, above normal rain or snow, drought elsewhere, unusual winds in one place, odd calm in another. That is what weather does.

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 01:50 AM
TWC said 1 in ten years? Who said 60 since December? Your post is not very clear.

Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-23, 01:52 AM
Look at the news, wild weather everywhere! Maybe polar ice caps melting has something to do with it? OR the real poleshift?

The real poleshift is in no way affiliated with non-existant planets. :lol:

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 01:57 AM
So, where can I go to see reports of 60+ tornados in California?

Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-23, 02:01 AM
Do any of you watch the weather channel?! Geez! The Meterologist looked at the radar over california on tv and said, "Winds reaching 95 MPH" (southern california) Then he paused for a sec and said "THESE STORM ARE FEROUCIOUS (sp)" And he made a funny pose... When a meterologist says something like that, it has to be bad.

paulie jay
2005-Feb-23, 02:06 AM
So, he didn't mention 60 tornados then?? Do you even bother to read our posts?

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 02:07 AM
I am still waiting for a cite of somewhere betweeen 60 and 70 tornados in California this year. A weatherman saying something about ferocious winds does not count.

Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-23, 02:09 AM
The weather channel dun shewed it earlier! Try a google for christs sake.

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 02:12 AM
So, your claim is that the Weather Channel said over 70 tornados in California this year and over 240 waterspouts?

Majin Vegeta
2005-Feb-23, 02:19 AM
Don't blame me for this because I have no clue why, but they counted funnel clouds over water as waterspouts. I would have to say if it was only the ones that touched water, it'd probably be reduced by 2/3rds. :wink:

Musashi
2005-Feb-23, 02:21 AM
So, the Weather Channel said 70 Tornadoes and 240 Waterspouts? Or they said 240 funnel clouds all inclusive? Or they said several tornadoes, not seventy? Or...?

BTW, the average for Tornadoes in California seems to be more like 5/year than 1 every ten and in the past few decades we have had several years with more than 10, but never anything like 70.

paulie jay
2005-Feb-23, 02:24 AM
Oh I can't even be bothered with this.

*Slams door*

Grendl
2005-Feb-23, 02:30 AM
Majin Vegeta said: 32+ Inches of RAIN in California -- Since January 3rd. What is going on?
No, I did Google "tornadoes in California" and you misspoke. Try:

"A total of 31.40 inches of rain has fallen since July 1, the start of the region's annual "water year" measuring period, the fifth wettest on record. The record is 38.18 inches, set in 1883-84."
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=521930

In other articles I see they say it's pretty normal. What everyone else is saying is correct. Wild weather is actually normal for the earth. Any reading of a decent book and looking at charts will show you this. Even if one thinks global warming or other human factors plays any part, a 1/2 or 1 degree change in global average temperature has happened before pollution could even be a factor.

In 1811-1812 three intraplate earthquakes emanating from Missouri and spreading out to ring a church bell in Boston came one after another. All three estimated to be higher than 8.0, higher than the San Francisco quake. 1976-1977 saw New England with the coldest recorded temperate in about 150 years (I remember that). We had droughts in the 1930's, etc, etc. There have been many wild weather events for 100's of years.

Scientists say that they think some tornadoes occur that aren't recorded. Considering our technology today, you can imagine how many were missed 50 or so years ago. If no one saw it, it wasn't recorded. Today we have media capablilities to constantly put this in front of us, but as far as I can read, wild weather and odd climatic shifts, dips and highs have been going on for a long time. And they don't really understand why all of these changes have occurred--whether 1,000 years ago or today.

As Brady Yoon said, if it consistently occurs over 10 years, it may be something to be concerned about. But these kind of weather events are normal.

I happened to come across this book once and it got me interested in this stuff. It's not long, very readable and will at least show you that so far wild weather is not surprising.
Tales of the Earth: Paroxysms and Perturbations of the Blue Planet (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0195090489/qid=1109122080/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-0730442-0130332?v=glance&s=books)

Captain Kidd
2005-Feb-23, 02:31 AM
From NOAA (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cae/svrwx/tornadobystate.htm)

California averages 4 tornadoes/year

Digging around for how many have been IDed this year.

Grendl
2005-Feb-23, 02:43 AM
Yet weather forecasters say such phenomena are not uncommon in Southern California. There have been 36 tornadoes recorded in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the past 44 years. "The ones we get tend to be weak," said Philip Gonsalves with the National Weather Service. "They generally go unreported."

Four tornadoes were reported in the region Saturday, according to the weather service. Besides Temecula, two were spotted in the Fallbrook area. A fourth was tracked in Huntington Beach.

snip

The tornado reached F1 on the Fujita scale, which measures wind speed and damage to categorize twisters.

Between January 1950 and Sept. 30, 2004, there were nine tornadoes in Riverside County and 27 in San Bernardino County, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Only three of those were rated F2 and F3.

An F3-rated tornado hit Riverside County on Aug. 16, 1973. San Bernardino County had two F2 tornadoes, one on June 25, 1954, and Sept. 4, 1982, according to NOAA.

Have to register:
http://www.pe.com/localnews/riverside/stories/PE_News_Local_tornados22.58432.html

Enzp
2005-Feb-23, 10:29 AM
Majin, may I offer some advice? There is something that scientists always keep in mind when interpreting any data:

Correlation is not causality.

This means that just because two things seem to go together does not mean one caused the other. They might be related or they might not. Never assume they are.

ANother very important technique scientists use is to verify the data. If one researcher hears something, he doesn't just accept it as true, he finds out for sure. In fact a large part of science is trying to find flaws in the methods and analysis. Once they find that no matter who does the experiment, the results are the same every time, then they start to accept the results.

Scientists also concern them selves with sample size. In other words, they don't try to make inferences from too few points of data. For example if the temperature last year was 50 degrees and this year it is 60 degrees, we cannot then assume there is a trend that next year it will be 70 and the year after 80 and so on. We cannot assume that "something is going on." If we track temperatures for many years and the results show a rising trend, then we can think there is a climate shift.

SO when we see extremes of weather, we need to put them into perspective. When you hear that we haven't had this much rain in 50 years, keep in mind then that 50 years ago we had just as much rain.

captain swoop
2005-Feb-23, 10:45 AM
I could conclude that we've had abnormally little snowfall this winter, while they would say they've had their share. Not every year and every place is the same year after year concerning the weather.

I live on the edge of the North Yorkshire Moors in a market town called Guisborough, I work about 7 miles away on the coast in a town called Redcar. This morning there were about 8 inches of snow in Guisborough, when I got down to work (about 150 metres lower at sea level there isn't a flake to be seen. Just goes to show.

Nicolas
2005-Feb-23, 12:27 PM
I could conclude that we've had abnormally little snowfall this winter, while they would say they've had their share. Not every year and every place is the same year after year concerning the weather.

I live on the edge of the North Yorkshire Moors in a market town called Guisborough, I work about 7 miles away on the coast in a town called Redcar. This morning there were about 8 inches of snow in Guisborough, when I got down to work (about 150 metres lower at sea level there isn't a flake to be seen. Just goes to show.

And this morning we had some snow laying here (very little) :)

teddyv
2005-Feb-23, 03:34 PM
The weather channel dun shewed it earlier! Try a google for christs sake.

Watch the language. [-X

Trebuchet
2005-Feb-23, 07:57 PM
Ho-Hum. Just another boring sunny 50 degree (F) day here in the Pacific Northwest. Like we've been having for weeks now. Trees are blooming, flowers coming up, etc. If you're not a skier (the local areas have generally been unable to open this year) it's been a great winter. We'll pay for it next summer when there's no water of course.

(For those from elsewhere: Normally it would be raining here. All winter long. "Winter" being September 1 to July 5.)

frogesque
2005-Feb-23, 08:50 PM
We have orange snow! (http://frogesque.com/images/orangesnow1.jpg)

Taken about 10 mins ago, f1.4, 1/8sec, ASA 400 (I'm still playing with the file size/pic quality so this may be a bit slow on a dial up)

Swift
2005-Feb-23, 10:37 PM
We have orange snow! (http://frogesque.com/images/orangesnow1.jpg)

Taken about 10 mins ago, f1.4, 1/8sec, ASA 400 (I'm still playing with the file size/pic quality so this may be a bit slow on a dial up)
Don't eat the orange snow! [-X


8-[

rleyland
2005-Feb-23, 11:09 PM
Ho-Hum. Just another boring sunny 50 degree (F) day here in the Pacific Northwest. Like we've been having for weeks now. Trees are blooming, flowers coming up, etc. If you're not a skier (the local areas have generally been unable to open this year) it's been a great winter. We'll pay for it next summer when there's no water of course.

(For those from elsewhere: Normally it would be raining here. All winter long. "Winter" being September 1 to July 5.)

Today is sunny here in the SF Bay Area (N.California), but we've just come off two-three weeks of solid rain. It's been one of the wetter winters here in some time. Last year was wet too, but not as wet. Prior to that we had very dry winters for many years.

It's just weather, climate is long term.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Robert.

Wally
2005-Feb-24, 04:06 PM
Heading out to SoCal next week for a conference. Hoping to heck the rains let up by then!!! :P