View Full Version : Pickover ESP Experiment

01101001

2005-Mar-19, 03:53 AM

From one (http://www.badastronomy.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=438896&#438896) of the infinitely many .999... topics:

I've often heard it said that there are more transcendental numbers than non-, but we only know a few. That's not quite true--check out the bottom few paragraphs of this webpage ode to transcendentals (http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/pickover/trans.html). A lot of transcendentals were in widespread use forty years ago!

What an interesting website, ATP. I'm 'taking' it to work with me. :D

Candy, others, be sure to try the mysterious Pickover ESP Experiment (http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/pickover/esp.html).

Now, don't go blabbing, you people who know how it works. Let mystery live.

SciFi Chick

2005-Mar-19, 03:55 AM

Ah yes. I am certain that guy will win a million dollars any time now.

Of course, I know how it works. :)

The Supreme Canuck

2005-Mar-19, 04:27 AM

So do I. The first time I saw it, it had me for maybe 10 minutes. (I knew it wasn't ESP or some other bunk, but I couldn't figure it out. And then it hit me. :D )

SciFi Chick

2005-Mar-19, 04:29 AM

So do I. The first time I saw it, it had me for maybe 10 minutes. (I knew it wasn't ESP or some other bunk, but I couldn't figure it out. And then it hit me. :D )

Me too. It took longer than ten minutes, but I eventually worked it out.

Stregone

2005-Mar-19, 04:33 AM

Good ol' misdirection. A magicians best friend.

SciFi Chick

2005-Mar-19, 04:34 AM

Don't give it away Stregone. [-X

The Supreme Canuck

2005-Mar-19, 04:36 AM

Here's another. The Monty Hall Problem (http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html)

And a site to prove it: http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/montygame.htm

SciFi Chick

2005-Mar-19, 04:38 AM

Here's another. The Monty Hall Problem (http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html)

And a site to prove it: http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/montygame.htm

Not that again! ](*,) #-o I was just thinking about that today. seanf tried explaining it to me, but I can only understand it if I am physically looking at his explanation. Otherwise, I forget.

In any case, I'll be taking statistics and probability next year. 8)

The Supreme Canuck

2005-Mar-19, 04:44 AM

Yeah. I still don't quite get it either.

I think it centres around the fact that if you have chosen a goat, when the host also chooses a goat, the remaining door has to be the car. And when you've chosen the car, the host is choosing a goat at random, so you don't know where the car is. But since you have a 2 in 3 chance of choosing a goat, you have a 2 in 3 chance of the host revealing where the car is. So if you switch doors, you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

If that makes sense.

W.F. Tomba

2005-Mar-19, 05:18 AM

Yeah. I still don't quite get it either.

I think it centres around the fact that if you have chosen a goat, when the host also chooses a goat, the remaining door has to be the car. And when you've chosen the car, the host is choosing a goat at random, so you don't know where the car is. But since you have a 2 in 3 chance of choosing a goat, you have a 2 in 3 chance of the host revealing where the car is. So if you switch doors, you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

If that makes sense.

Yes, it's quite simple. Because there were two goats and only one car in the beginning, you probably picked a goat. But that information doesn't do you any good until the host narrows down the choices. At that point you can use the knowledge that you probably picked a goat to maximize your chances of getting the car.

Amadeus

2005-Mar-19, 10:14 AM

So do I. The first time I saw it, it had me for maybe 10 minutes. (I knew it wasn't ESP or some other bunk, but I couldn't figure it out. And then it hit me. :D )

Ah! moment of clarity! The unverse makes sence again.

Took me about 10 mins too to clock this. :D

This is going to be sent round the office on monday for sure!

Lycus

2005-Mar-19, 10:24 AM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

the_shaggy_one

2005-Mar-19, 05:51 PM

I figured it out pretty quick, it took me about 30 seconds of good thinking.

Very, very clever, though :P

Amadeus

2005-Mar-20, 01:13 PM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

If you read the comments on the site you can see a lot of people have some pretty out.

If only they new the secret!

Spoiler....

Turn your webcam away from your face! :wink:

NASA Fan

2005-Mar-20, 09:31 PM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

I figured it out immidiatly as well. Are we supposed to believe that those "user" comments are all real? I do realice that some people would believe it to be "magic" or esp, but surely not that many people have that many crazy reasons to believe.

The Supreme Canuck

2005-Mar-20, 09:32 PM

I think most of those were just posted for fun. Like people voting for crazy things in polls and surveys.

Stregone

2005-Mar-20, 09:57 PM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

I figured it out immidiatly as well. Are we supposed to believe that those "user" comments are all real? I do realice that some people would believe it to be "magic" or esp, but surely not that many people have that many crazy reasons to believe.

You view of humanity is far too optimistic :)

Moose

2005-Mar-20, 10:05 PM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

You weren't, although I'd first seen this a few years ago.

Fortis

2005-Mar-20, 10:51 PM

Yeah. I still don't quite get it either.

I think it centres around the fact that if you have chosen a goat, when the host also chooses a goat, the remaining door has to be the car. And when you've chosen the car, the host is choosing a goat at random, so you don't know where the car is. But since you have a 2 in 3 chance of choosing a goat, you have a 2 in 3 chance of the host revealing where the car is. So if you switch doors, you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

If that makes sense.

Yes, it's quite simple. Because there were two goats and only one car in the beginning, you probably picked a goat. But that information doesn't do you any good until the host narrows down the choices. At that point you can use the knowledge that you probably picked a goat to maximize your chances of getting the car.

Yes. I think the simplest way to view it is to consider that when you make your initial selection, the probability of that door being incorrect is 2/3, and this probability doesn't change when the host opens the doors.

The pickover site is great. When I first tried it a few years ago I'll admit that I was initially flummoxed. If I hadn't started from the traditional skeptical position then I suspect that I could have easily been persuaded that something wacky had taken place. :)

Andrew

2005-Mar-21, 12:15 AM

Come on, I can't be the only one who figured it out on the first shot. 8)

No, it didn't have me fooled for a second either.

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