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View Full Version : Popocatepetl most dangerous NA volcano?



Tom Mazanec
2019-Mar-22, 02:34 AM
This is something of a "doomer" site, but I was wondering if this article had any accuracy?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/its-happening-the-most-dangerous-volcano-in-north-america-just-erupted-and-shot-ash-nearly-a-mile-into-the-sky

geonuc
2019-Mar-22, 02:01 PM
In a word, yes. It has 'some' accuracy but I don't think experts consider Popo to be the most dangerous. Certainly it isn't as hazardous to the population of Mexico City as the article states. The city is too far away and I believe the topography is unfavorable for lava/mud/pyroclastic flows to reach that far. A major eruption would certainly spew out a lot of material, greatly affecting the area.

I'd say volcanologists continue to consider Rainer as the most dangerous.

Grey
2019-Mar-22, 02:13 PM
It looks like Popocatepetl (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popocat%C3%A9petl) has been erupting on and off for a long time. That's not to say that it couldn't become more serious, but I don't think there's evidence that it will. I do note that it compares Popocatepetl and Mexico City to the Vesuvius eruption that destroyed Pompeii. But Pompeii was 5 miles away from Vesuvius, while Mexico City is 43 miles from Popocatepetl. And that page makes much of an explosion sending "Ash Nearly A Mile Into The Sky", but based on the evidence we have, it sounds like Vesuvius (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Vesuvius) sent ash 21 miles up. So, could Popocatepetl have an enormous eruption that would cause widespread devastation? Probably. Is that happening right now, or do we have evidence that it will happen in the near future? No.

Swift
2019-Mar-22, 02:38 PM
This is something of a "doomer" site, but I was wondering if this article had any accuracy?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/its-happening-the-most-dangerous-volcano-in-north-america-just-erupted-and-shot-ash-nearly-a-mile-into-the-sky
If you consider that "something" of a "doomer" site, I'd hate to see what you thought was a solidly, doom-day site.

Tom Mazanec
2019-Mar-23, 01:39 PM
If you consider that "something" of a "doomer" site, I'd hate to see what you thought was a solidly, doom-day site.

OK, I'll spare you any links :-)
BTW, I just noticed that you are a fellow Ohioan. Most of my life I was in Maple Heights, but spent a few years in Garfield Heights and now live in Twinsburg. What is your QTH (former ham license N8VHI)?

bknight
2019-Mar-23, 04:40 PM
This is something of a "doomer" site, but I was wondering if this article had any accuracy?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/its-happening-the-most-dangerous-volcano-in-north-america-just-erupted-and-shot-ash-nearly-a-mile-into-the-sky

Looks to me like a web page dedicated to selling books that the guy wrote. Yes it could be dangerous to Mexico City, there are a lot of volcanoes that could be dangerous to NA, whether scientists view this as the most dangerous? A search didn't reveal a lot of scientific concern, except that is for Mexico City.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocatepetl/news.html

Trebuchet
2019-Mar-23, 06:11 PM
"Popo" isn't even a Decade Volcano (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decade_Volcanoes), the ones considered to be most dangerous. Mount Rainier, in my state, and Colima, in Mexico, are.

Tom Mazanec
2019-Mar-23, 08:21 PM
Great.
Now I can stop worrying about Popocatepetl.
And start worrying about 16 others.

Spacedude
2019-Mar-23, 09:32 PM
Seems like every time I see a news report on tv coming from the Seattle area they always have Mt Rainier in the background. It crosses my mind about St Helens and her sideways eruption and if an event like that would reach the city.

Grey
2019-Mar-23, 09:51 PM
Seems like every time I see a news report on tv coming from the Seattle area they always have Mt Rainier in the background. It crosses my mind about St Helens and her sideways eruption and if an event like that would reach the city.Looking on a map, it appears that Mt. Rainier is about 60 miles away from Seattle. You can see tall mountains from well beyond where the horizon would normally cut off your view of the landscape. Wikipedia says that the devastation from the lateral blast of Mt. St. Helens (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens#Lateral_blast_re sult) extended as far as 19 miles. So, probably not.

Trebuchet
2019-Mar-23, 11:12 PM
It's not the blast, it's the lahars. According to Wikipedia, about 150,000 people live on top of past lahars. New ones could reach all the way into Commencement Bay (Tacoma) and Elliot Bay (Seattle). Mt Rainier from the vicinity of Orting is both awesome and terrifying.

George
2019-Mar-29, 03:34 PM
Popocatepetl popped last night. (https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocatepetl/news.html)

chornedsnorkack
2019-Mar-30, 09:25 AM
How far down Cowlitz river were people on riverbanks killed by flood? The ash from Saint Helens blocked Columbia for ships, but the water continued to drain over sandbanks and Portland was not flooded.

Trebuchet
2019-Mar-31, 01:44 AM
How far down Cowlitz river were people on riverbanks killed by flood? The ash from Saint Helens blocked Columbia for ships, but the water continued to drain over sandbanks and Portland was not flooded.
Not at all, IIRC. But Rainier is much larger and has far greater glacial coverage.

Tom Mazanec
2019-Apr-02, 12:55 PM
More from him:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/a-volcano-that-could-completely-cover-mexico-city-with-volcanic-ash-just-erupted-200-times-in-a-24-hour-period

Swift
2019-Apr-02, 01:29 PM
More from him:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/a-volcano-that-could-completely-cover-mexico-city-with-volcanic-ash-just-erupted-200-times-in-a-24-hour-period
And we are supposed to take a blog called "The Economic Collapse", with a subtitle of "Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression?" as a serious source for geological information? If you search the web for overblown hype and doomsday believers, you are sure to find it.

Copernicus
2019-Apr-04, 10:56 PM
Jesus said, no one knows the day, nor the hour of the end of the world. I'm really wondering if people of his time really understood the statistics of predicting unstable situations and that it was impossible, statistically, to predict chaos. Or did they understand it as a gut instinct. As far as Popocatepetl. I used to live very close to this volcano. I could see it from my house when the pollution wasn't bad. Don't misunderestimate this bad boy. One cannot predict ultimate destruction, but it becomes obvious when one is moments before the destruction.