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Cylinder
2005-Jun-22, 02:19 AM
Things are not looking very good (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1664374,00.html):


An attempt to launch a spacecraft propelled by sunlight was reported to have failed last night when the booster rocket broke down shortly after lift-off in the Barents Sea.

The launch of Cosmos 1 was part of a joint Russian-American attempt at the first controlled flight using a solar sail. An official in Russia’s Northern Fleet told the RIA-Novosti news agency that the engine had failed 83 seconds after the launch from a submerged Russian submarine.

The official said that a search was under way for the solar sail and the Volna booster rocket.


This is a prelimenary report, and there are some conflicting reports (http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&ncl=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4104282.stm).

Cylinder
2005-Jun-22, 02:24 AM
CBC is reporting the same (http://www.cbc.ca/cp/world/050621/w062190.html).


"After 83 seconds, the engine of the booster rocket stopped working and the spacecraft did not enter orbit," the official said on condition of anonymity. He added that a search was underway for the solar sail and the Volna booster rocket and an investigation would study what went wrong.

Lidia Avdeyeva, a spokeswoman for the Lavochkin institute involved in the project, told The Associated Press she could not confirm the information but said that if the engine had failed then the vehicle would have fallen back to Earth.

Space.com (http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/050621_cosmos1_launch.html)



"This is not what we'd hoped to have happen," said Bruce Murray, co-founder of the space advocacy group Planetary Society in charge of the mission. "Negative news is not good news."

The Planetary Society's Cosmos 1 spacecraft launched skyward atop a converted Cold War-era intercontinental ballistic missile, shot skyward at about 3:46 p.m. EDT (1946 GMT) from its Russian nuclear submarine launch pad positioned beneath the Barents Sea.

But with some apparently ambiguous telemetry, hints that their solar sail spacecraft and the potential of a launch vehicle anomaly, the actual state of Cosmos 1 is unclear.

An official statement from the Planetary Society stated that, though Cosmos 1 did launch Tuesday, flight controllers "could not confirm a successful orbit injection."

Manchurian Taikonaut
2005-Jun-22, 04:03 AM
Here's the blog
http://planetary.org/solarsailblog/index_04.html
something happened, perhaps the anomlay or it went into the wrong orbit ?

But they say


all is not lost....

There's certainly still hope that we may have a live spacecraft.

I don't believe in numerology or astrology but was this a bad omen ??
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0506/21molniya/
a different military rocket launch fails
let's hope this isn't the 2nd failure for the Russian, what's happening to the Russians and their space launches ?

Cylinder
2005-Jun-22, 04:25 AM
what's happening to the Russians and their space launches ?

I don't know if "strapped to a SLBM" is the Russian's optimal launch profile.

Wolverine
2005-Jun-22, 05:32 AM
I turned on MSNBC tonight just because James Oberg was on discussing the shuttle & return to flight, but Keith Olbermann served up some rather disparaging comments about The Planetary Society and Cosmos I. He likened the efforts to Star Trek, and reminded viewers that "Star Trek got cancelled." It was rather insulting, and reminded me why I don't watch much TV anymore.

Sorry to see that the mission doesn't appear to have fared well.

kg034
2005-Jun-22, 07:04 AM
There might be some hope (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4110912.stm)



Scientists in the US say they may have recovered a signal from the first craft designed to use light from the Sun to power space travel.

Organisers of the mission in California say there is now hope that the "solar sail" craft is orbiting Earth, hours after it stopped communicating.

azazul
2005-Jun-22, 07:07 AM
There might be some hope

That's very good to hear, thanks for the link.

kucharek
2005-Jun-22, 08:16 AM
At least NORAD should know where something launched by a SLBM from a Russian sub has gone. What are these guys payed for? 8)

Manchurian Taikonaut
2005-Jun-22, 08:55 AM
At least NORAD should know where something launched by a SLBM from a Russian sub has gone. What are these guys payed for? 8)

Well if NORAD doesn't grab those bad guys then

border patrol will
http://www.badastronomy.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=22206&highlight=
lucky it was only a chainsaw

01101001
2005-Jun-22, 10:12 AM
At least NORAD should know where something launched by a SLBM from a Russian sub has gone. What are these guys payed for? 8)

Among other things, they are probably paid not to say exactly what their capabilities are.

NEOWatcher
2005-Jun-22, 12:34 PM
Just caught this on CNN in their explainer section of the article (bolding mine)

scientists believe it will take a full day to get future spacecraft up to 100 miles per hour, but after three years, it could go as fast as 100,000 miles per hour.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/06/22/russia.cosmos.ap/index.html
I'm hoping it's just wording (i.e. up by 100...) but given the track record...

Argos
2005-Jun-22, 01:23 PM
what's happening to the Russians and their space launches ?

Call the Brazilians next time. :lol:

gopher65
2005-Jun-22, 01:25 PM
I think that means it will increase its velocity by 100 miles/hour/day. I had origionally read that it would be 160 miles/hour/day (I think).

Jorge
2005-Jun-22, 04:05 PM
how big was it?
If it was rather big, how can we have lost it?

Rich
2005-Jun-22, 04:19 PM
There's a lot of stuff up there and if it didn't go onto it's planned pathway it could be very hard to find. Anyone ever seen a realistic depiction of all the known satellites in orbit? It's thousands of objects. Then there are also the rocket body parts, lost tools, broken bits, etc. floating around up there. There are tens of thousands more of that stuff, all of it tracked as best as possible.

NORAD has pretty good resolution on objects, they can even track pretty small stuff, but quantifying an unknown in a pack of other objects (many of which are also unknown is tough). As Tom Hank's character said in Saving Private Ryan "It's like trying to find a particular needle in a stack of needles."

Cylinder
2005-Jun-22, 06:08 PM
The Planetary Society website has just issued an update (http://www.planetary.org/solarsail/latest_update.html)


In the past twenty-four hours, the Russian space agency (RKA) has made a tentative conclusion that the Volna rocket carrying Cosmos 1 failed during the firing of the first stage. This would mean that Cosmos 1 is lost.

While it is likely that this conclusion is correct, there are some inconsistent indications from information received from other sources. The Cosmos 1 team observed what appear to be signals, that looks like they are from the spacecraft when it was over the first three ground stations and some Doppler data over one of these stations. This might indicate that Cosmos 1 made it into orbit, but probably a lower one than intended. The project team now considers this to be a very small probability. But because there is a slim chance that it might be so, efforts to contact and track the spacecraft continue. We are working with US Strategic Command to provide additional information in a day or so.

"Very small probability" is not exactly hopeful words - but at least is does not rule out hope. Fingers crossed.

publiusr
2005-Jun-22, 06:32 PM
Kinda reminds me of Charles Osgood's piece
"A Merry Comsat to All, and to All a Good Grief."

At least The Planetary folks have Sternbach's art going for them on their site.

Now here are what REAL spacecraft look like:
http://collectspace.com/resources/models_grumman_lem.html
http://www.cgpublishing.com/Books/Saturn.html

As far as Keith Olbermann is concerned--maybe the folks who operate the satellite that bounces his insipid voice all over the Cosmos need to say "Don't think much of spaceflight? Then operate this yourself" and walk out.

That is what we need:

"A Month Without Space."

Turn off the Goes, the GPS--ALL OF IT--for a month!

And we will see how fast people like Olbermann change their tune.

Maksutov
2005-Jun-22, 10:07 PM
As launched Cosmos 1 was about 100 kg, and was approximately 1.4m long by 1.3m in diameter. Once the sails unfurled it would have been about 30m in diameter. But without those sails, it's a pretty small object to track.

A booster ceasing operation 83 seconds into the flight does not bode well for achieving an orbit, especially since there were a few more stages left that needed to do their particular jobs. Shoot. I was looking forward not only to a successful experiment but also some backyard sightings.

Re Keith Olbermann, give him credit for consistency. He was a sarcastic, obnoxious twit while a member of the ESPN crew, and apparently hasn't changed a bit. I like to think I was partly responsible for his leaving ESPN, since I wrote them a letter asking what was the point of an all-sports network employing a reporter who did nothing but put down sports.

A Thousand Pardons
2005-Jun-22, 10:37 PM
Just caught this on CNN in their explainer section of the article (bolding mine)

scientists believe it will take a full day to get future spacecraft up to 100 miles per hour, but after three years, it could go as fast as 100,000 miles per hour.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/06/22/russia.cosmos.ap/index.html
I'm hoping it's just wording (i.e. up by 100...) but given the track record...
That link doesn't have that wording/info any longer, it seems. Instead, the lead-in is

Scientists said they may have detected signals from the world's first solar sail spacecraft, but cautioned that it could take hours or days to figure out exactly where the $4 million Cosmos 1 is traveling.
All they have to do is find it. :)

Having a signal surely makes it easier.

Maddad
2005-Jun-23, 12:56 AM
CNN news has been reporting that it crashed into the Barents Sea minutes after takeoff. MSN carried the story as well, although it wasn't listed on their hompage the last time I look. More important news like "Democrats see Social Security ‘bait and switch’" is taking precedence.

Maksutov
2005-Jun-23, 02:41 AM
From Emily Lakdawalla's (Project Operations Assistant and Image Processing Coordinator for Cosmos 1) blog:


With failure of Cosmos 1 virtually certain, the team members that have been staffing Project Operations Pasadena have elected to return to their homes. Thanks to the Internet, if our spacecraft miraculously reappears, each of us will still be able to keep watch over the mission from our individual remote locations. Greg returns to Berkeley, Jim and Brent to Utah, and Paul to his usual life at the Jet Propulsion Lab, just up the valley from Pasadena. Lou will be returning from Moscow in a couple of days. I took off for home a couple of hours ago in order to begin to catch up on sleep.

The team may be scattering, but it's not over. The search for the spacecraft continues. The search continues in the present, as several observatories have offered to try to look for a signal from the spacecraft. (If you, too, have a spare observatory, feel free to search at a frequency of 401.5275 Hz, but I am afraid that I can't offer any advice on where to point your antenna.) The search also continues into the past, as Strategic Command is working through its "unknown objects bucket" (as Jim called it this morning) to find where the spacecraft and its launch vehicle ended up.

The entire blog may be found here. (http://planetary.org/solarsailblog/index_05.html) :(

Cylinder
2005-Jun-23, 05:02 AM
The entire blog may be found here. (http://planetary.org/solarsailblog/index_05.html) :(

From the earlier entry:


The press did ask Jim to speculate on how some of the different pieces of information that we had could be hooked together into a consistent story. So, here's the team'ss various speculations on that topic.

Speculation #1: Complete launch vehicle failure, we crashed somewhere and just have to find the crash site. (By the way, Lou said he did not have any information about the sighting of debris at a crash site, in contradiction some rumors that are circulating. Those reports could be confusing the Cosmos 1 launch with the Molniya launch that failed earlier yesterday.) This would mean that the signals we thought were detected at Kamchatka, Majuro, and Panska Ves were phantoms.

Speculation #2: Something weird happened on the launch vehicle, but other stages did fire; we did go into orbit, but a very different one from one we expected, something very low and highly elliptical. This speculation branches into a couple of other speculations:
Speculation #2a: our orbit was super low, in fact the perigee of the orbit was below the surface of the Earth -- i.e., we crashed somewhere away from the launch site. We could have crashed half an orbit away. If our orbit was a little higher, grazing the atmosphere, the orbit would decay rapidly; we might have gone around the Earth a couple of times, but still crashed eventually, after a few orbits.

Speculation #2b (least likely but still possible): we are in a weird orbit, probably very low and strange looking, but we are still up in the sky. Continued searches could then still turn up a functioning spacecraft. If the orbit doesn't decay within 4 days, the automatic program onboard the spacecraft will deploy the sails at around 0500 UT on June 26, which would make the spacecraft a lot easier to spot.

A Thousand Pardons
2005-Jun-23, 05:19 AM
Super low orbit! top of the lithosphere...

Hey, that's the orbit I'm in.

Glom
2005-Jun-23, 03:23 PM
Space.com article. (http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ap_cosmos1_update_050623.html)

It's not looking good. That's a blow for our secretary who was planning to do a talk on the spacecraft during a meeting of AstroSoc next year.

publiusr
2005-Jun-23, 06:24 PM
No sense in holding out false hope. This thing is dead and in the drink.

Swift
2005-Jun-23, 06:39 PM
CNN.com article (http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/06/23/vision.cosmos.ap/index.html)

The Planetary Society, the Pasadena-based group that orchestrated the $4 million launch of Cosmos 1, have all but conceded that the spacecraft's launch ended in failure.

Russia's space agency said with "some definitiveness" that Cosmos 1's booster rocket failed 83 seconds after its launch from a Russian nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea on Tuesday.

Jerry
2005-Jun-23, 09:00 PM
No sense in holding out false hope. This thing is dead and in the drink.

The aguasphere?

publiusr
2005-Jun-24, 08:59 PM
What the big boys use:
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/launchers-05zzn.html Zenit

What an R-7 can do
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/microgravity-05c.html Foton

This craft is nothing but an unmanned Vostok.

ToSeek
2005-Jul-06, 04:05 PM
Still looking:

The Planetary Society Asks "Where is Cosmos 1?" - Received Signals May Have Come from Solar Sail Spacecraft in Orbit (http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=17338)


Dr. Viacheslav Linkin, project Science Manager from IKI, stated, "It appears almost certain that we have received signals from the spacecraft after it was injected into orbit."

The IKI team is continuing to review the data and provide additional calibration measurements to rule out other possible sources for the signals.

"We have scientists in both the US and Russia looking at the signals," said Louis Friedman, the Project Director and Executive Director of The Planetary Society, "and a strong case can be made that at least some of the signals are from the spacecraft."

Friedman cited, as the strongest example, a measurement of Doppler shift in the frequency of the signal from the Kamchatka tracking station which correlated very well with the magnitude and time of the planned orbit insertion motor firing.

Swift
2005-Jul-06, 05:09 PM
As Monty Python said "He's not dead yet". Let's just hope "He's getting better". :wink:

CJSF
2005-Jul-06, 05:23 PM
Still looking:

The Planetary Society Asks "Where is Cosmos 1?" - Received Signals May Have Come from Solar Sail Spacecraft in Orbit (http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=17338)


Dr. Viacheslav Linkin, project Science Manager from IKI, stated, "It appears almost certain that we have received signals from the spacecraft after it was injected into orbit."

The IKI team is continuing to review the data and provide additional calibration measurements to rule out other possible sources for the signals.

"We have scientists in both the US and Russia looking at the signals," said Louis Friedman, the Project Director and Executive Director of The Planetary Society, "and a strong case can be made that at least some of the signals are from the spacecraft."

Friedman cited, as the strongest example, a measurement of Doppler shift in the frequency of the signal from the Kamchatka tracking station which correlated very well with the magnitude and time of the planned orbit insertion motor firing.

Surely this is just to see if it was in orbit for a short time after insertion. They're not thinking or hoping it still is, are they?

CJSF

publiusr
2005-Jul-06, 09:38 PM
It's dead, Jim.

Leave it be.

Ilya
2005-Jul-13, 02:21 AM
The dastardly and nefarious planetary plans of the Planetary Society, noted front organization for the Space Nazi Brigades of the Military Industrial Complex™, have been outed by the heroic brave moonbats of Indymedia Chiapas:

http://chiapas.mediosindependientes.org/display.php3?article_id=113806

Try reading the whole thing, although it may cause a brain implosion.

Clearly the flap over space weaponization has crossed the line into self-parody.

ToSeek
2005-Jul-21, 05:59 PM
Volna Failure Review Board Reports
on Loss of Cosmos 1 (http://www.planetary.org/solarsail/update_20050720.html)


The Volna Failure Review Board convened by the Makeev Rocket Design Bureau, manufacturers of the Volna launch vehicle, has made its final report to the Russian space agency, Roskosmos, concerning the attempted June 21 launch of our Cosmos 1 spacecraft. They concluded that the telemetry data from the launch vehicle was sufficient to determine that the launch failed due to an premature shut-down of the first-stage engine caused by a “critical degradation in operational capability of the engine turbo-pump.”
...
The Planetary Society was not invited to be part of the failure review. We did receive a warning from the U.S. State Department reminding us that, under International Arms Traffic Regulations (ITAR), we are not allowed to participate in a launch failure review without their approval. . But even before the failure review, there was a serious lack of communication and coordination with the project and launch vehicle teams.

publiusr
2005-Jul-22, 09:24 PM
I do hope that breaks them of the habit of going after cheapo SLBMs.
Now it's Musk's turn.

Maybe--if they ask Griffin nicely--they can ride in a Hubble servicing mission where they can have helping hands and KNOW the thing deploys.

ToSeek
2005-Sep-07, 04:36 PM
The Mystery of Cosmos 1 (http://www.space.com/adastra/adastra_cosmos_mystery_050907.html)


So why would the Russians lie about the failure? A malfunction is a malfunction. What’s the difference? Cosmos 1 died no matter what happened. In this case, I believe that the answer is simple public relations and the bottom line for a cash-strapped Russian Space Agency. My conclusion is pure speculation, so please keep that in mind, but I believe it fits the facts better than any other explanation thus far presented.

The Russians were using an old Cold War era SLBM for the first stages of this flight. However, the upper stage was new and untried. This is a stage that they would love to sell to other customers for other flights of satellites or space probes. If they admit that it failed on this flight, customers will never materialize. If the malfunction is blamed on a 40-year-old, first-stage the problem goes away. As Dennis Miller liked to say, "This is just my opinion, I could be wrong."