View Full Version : The latest AAGW fight at airliners.net

2005-Aug-27, 09:36 AM
Here (http://www.airliners.net/discussions/tech_ops/read.main/125671/) it is.

It started out innocently enough with a simple question from someone about whether global warming was having an effect on weather that would affect aviation. I responded with,

The validity of the global warming theory has yet to be established, let alone is effects on weather for aviation purposes.

While A346Dude approved, Klaus took exception with a post full of obnoxious bolding (I seen other people complain about it as well). Central to his thesis seemed to be the affirmation of the consequent. Change is observed therefore it must be global warming, which of course is fallacious. Then there was some typical hyping about sea levels, the rumours of whose rise are greatly exaggerated. Plus he exaggerated about the glaciers as well.

He made a point that local variation is not inconsistent with overall trends and this is true. But on this I have to observe a slight double standard when it comes to the use of chaos and uncertainty. They are invoked to explain when there is local contradiction, but ignored when it comes to the scarey predictions. For example, it is easy to say that the fact that Maldives aren't going the way of Atlantis is simply local variation, but apparently the issue of local variation disappears when they say with certainty that they will in the future. Besides, by the time we get to the Antarctic continent refusing to comply, the contradiction is a little too big to be dismissed as local variation. If anything, the melting of the Larson B ice shelf is the local variation, while the cooling is the trend.

As I mentioned, I took Klaus up on his offer and browsed some of the AAGW threads there. I wasn't impressed. The first one I looked at had nothing but ad hominems and appeals to consensus. Other threads were slightly better but only marginally. They talked about the warming trend, but only as if the trend was linear (in other words ignoring the fact that the fastest warming this century happened during the 30s before most of the carbon was released). The also talked about the raised carbon dioxide levels, but that is not an issue in dispute. The important issues like the carbon lag and the solar corrolation were not mentioned in the threads (and these were the big ones) I saw.

I said that this forum is much better. The discussion is much more intelligent.