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DippyHippy
2003-Oct-28, 05:30 AM
I got this from SpaceWatch a few hours ago but so far, I've had no joy here in lovely England... has anyone had any luck??

If you're not already on their email list and you're interested in aurorae, I highly recommend you sign up...


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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH UPDATED: 17:00 UTC, 27 OCTOBER 2003

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** UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW PREDICTIVE INFORMATION **


VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC ON 27 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 29 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 29 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 50, 30, 25 (27 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW
JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND
TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS OF
AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

UPDATE: Analysis of the second major coronal mass ejection observed on Sunday
reveals that mass from that disturbance is directed Earthward, possibly at a
fairly high velocity. If true, impact of this CME could arrive in the early
UTC hours of 28 October (target time at the present time is ~03:00 UTC on 28
October). The arrival of this disturbance could result in periods of strong
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity if this prediction is correct. Our
primary concern is the possible near-simultaneous impact of both coronal mass
ejection disturbances from the two X-class flares of Sunday. If this occurs,
predictions of lower activity will probably prove incorrect.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
29 October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

Josh
2003-Oct-28, 06:48 AM
ooohhh I've never seen an aurora! not many in Melbourne. And wouldnt you know it.. .it's cloudy tonight. I would guess that's the same problem in england...perpetual cloud. With any sort of luck though it'll clear here in Australia before the sighting chance slips away. (which unfortunately is in afew hours from now I think).

Fraser
2003-Oct-28, 07:00 AM
Rain here in Vancouver. :-(

Matthew
2003-Oct-28, 07:14 AM
Its been cloudy for a couple of days in Melbourne, and we never get aurora, never seen one with my own eyes either.

Pity. Next time, whever that'll be. :(

Haglund
2003-Oct-28, 07:29 AM
I have, a few times. It's quite a sight really, like streaming bands or curtains of diffuse colours, the ones I've seen were green.

Matthew
2003-Oct-28, 08:14 AM
I'd love too, but I don't live in the right area. When a chance comes too see one, its cloudy!

Thats life I guess!

Dawnnamira
2003-Oct-28, 02:39 PM
Wow! Another chance to see auoras. :D

I live in Eastern Kentucky, so, we don't really get a chance to see them very often.

However, we saw them down here shortly after 9/11. It was pretty neat.



(It almost makes me want to move back to Iowa so I'll have a better chance to see them... :lol: )

DippyHippy
2003-Oct-28, 11:24 PM
I've seen a few... it's a bit weird because here in lovely Luton, England at nearly 52 degrees north, we don't get to see that many.

So when one does come along, you tend to stare at it for a few moments as you try and work out if it's a cloud or not LOL A tell-tale sign is that if you're in the northern hemisphere, they always move head due south from due north. Likewise, if you're in the southern hemisphere, they move due north from due south.

The last time I saw one was a few years ago from my parent's back garden in the suburbs... it looked like a wispy strip of cloud at first glance... but then I noticed it was moving relatively quickly and changing shape so then I thought it was smoke... but somehow it didn't look quite right LOL Perhaps it was the red-ish colour LOL

Anyway, I checked online that night and sure enough, there was an auroral alert out...

Alas, I'll have no such luck tonight methinks... it's currently 11:20pm and it's overcast and rainy... maybe it'll clear... (yeah right LOL)

TimC
2003-Oct-29, 01:42 AM
Gah! Here in Connecticut it was sunny and clear all day, but when I just went out to see if I could sight the aurora...I was suprised to discover it 's raining :angry: I was really hoping since I've never seen one. I notice a few others had poor weather too. Anyway, we'll have to try again tomorrow!

Karen M.
2003-Oct-29, 01:53 AM
Hello, All!

I live in Baltimore, and have always lived in the South, this is the most north I've ever been. I have never been able to see an Aurora, and was looking forward to it. It seems that whenever there is a major Astronomical Event, Baltimore calls out the rain. I seem to miss it all, from the Mars approach to planetary alignments - ISS passings to eclipses. I think I need to consider a move in the near future, maybe to the Sierra Madres or near Lake Tahoe - best skywatching I've ever experienced is in the Desert.

Let me know how far south the Aurora are seen! Too bad I'll be missing it.

Karen M.

DippyHippy
2003-Oct-30, 06:18 AM
I know they've been seen as far south as Texas and Oklahoma... alas, here in southern England, it's been raining... I'm hoping for better luck when the next one hits on Friday or Saturday...

Dawnnamira
2003-Oct-30, 03:22 PM
Well, I saw them here in Eastern Kentucky...

kashi
2003-Oct-31, 11:52 PM
Indeed it was cloudy in Melbourne, but I was woken up at about 1 am last night because my dog was making strange noises, and the whole Southern part of the sky seemed much brighter than usual. Perhaps an Aurora...

Matthew
2003-Nov-01, 12:11 AM
It'd be nice for Melbourne to have a clear night tonight so we could get a look at the Aurora, if they're still occuring.