PDA

View Full Version : Discussion: Study Predicts Quakes Nearly ...



Fraser
2004-Oct-05, 05:06 PM
SUMMARY: A NASA-funded study has predicted 15 of California's 16 largest earthquakes this decade, demonstrating that scientists are finally getting a handle on the warning signs that lead to big quakes. The team looked at historical earthquake data back to 1932, and then used this to build a model that predicts earthquake hotspots in California. One warning sign that a big quake is going to happen is when there's a series of small earthquakes above magnitude 3 which indicate that pressure is building up; another is when the fault appears to stop entirely.

What do you think about this story? Post your comments below.

Duane
2004-Oct-05, 06:55 PM
Wonder how Spiral Path did with his predictions. Still out there Spiral?

I seem to recall there was another earthquake prediction model that had targetted early Sept for a large quake in southern Cal. Seems to me that the date was revised after the predicted date or something. Anyone know of a link?

Spiral Path
2004-Oct-07, 08:18 PM
Duane,Oct 5 2004, 06:55 PM]Wonder how Spiral Path did with his predictions. Still out there Spiral?

Yes, I am still out here, but wrestling with almost insurmountable computer problems, as well as financial and health problems. So my predictions will be a long time coming (if ever - since my health is unfortunately rapidly deteriorating), though I still claim that my method rests on solid ground.

I congratulate NASA for the success in their predictions, but they are still only based on statistics and do not address the real nature of the earthquake-triggering mechanism. My 30-year study has discovered this mechanism which is based on simple orbital dynamics and facilitated by the solid, but broken-up crust of the Earth, so that the individual fault blocks within the larger plates can act, at least for a few seconds (or even minutes in the case of larger earthquakes), as "orbiting" bodies if - and only if - the ever-changing external forces are large enough to counteract gravity. My method involves therefore the accurate determination of the magnitude and direction of these forces, an endeavour which necessitates - as can be easily imagined - enormous computer capacity.

So far no seismological institute, government or other funding agency has been interested in a presentation of this my new concept and it is doubtful that I can ever produce sufficiently convincing graphs on my own small PC. I am trying, though.

A resigned
Spiral Path
(with no credibility and no connection to "high" places)