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ToSeek
2005-Oct-03, 04:38 PM
New Hurricane Forecast Calls for Busy October (http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/051003_hurricane_forecast.html)


The forecasters expect three named tropical storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane during October.

If that doesn't count Stan, three more named storms would mark the first time ever the hurricane name list has been exhausted.

bearcub
2005-Oct-03, 05:19 PM
That would be the primary list wouldn't it? They start with the Greek alphabet once that list is used up. Still, busy season indeed.

pghnative
2005-Oct-03, 05:45 PM
Currently, hurricane names repeat every 5 years, but they take a name out of the rotation if the named hurricane is very distructive. Hence, no more Hurricane Camille, Andrew or (presumably) Katrina.

If Hurricane Alpha devestates a major city, they can't really take the name "Alpha" out of rotation. I wonder what they'd do?

Donnie B.
2005-Oct-03, 08:12 PM
Currently, hurricane names repeat every 5 years, but they take a name out of the rotation if the named hurricane is very distructive. Hence, no more Hurricane Camille, Andrew or (presumably) Katrina.

If Hurricane Alpha devestates a major city, they can't really take the name "Alpha" out of rotation. I wonder what they'd do?Why couldn't they?

pghnative
2005-Oct-03, 08:43 PM
What would they replace it with? It's one thing to replace "Camille" with "Charley", but how do you make a substitution when the order is "Alpha", "Beta", "Gamma", "Delta", etc... "Alpha", "Brenda", "Gamma", "Delta" looks pretty strange in my book.

pghnative
2005-Oct-03, 08:51 PM
Currently, hurricane names repeat every 5 years, Edit: This is actually every 6 years.

Taks
2005-Oct-03, 08:58 PM
If that doesn't count Stan, three more named storms would mark the first time ever the hurricane name list has been exhausted.well, the name list is only 50 years old... ;)
taks

Donnie B.
2005-Oct-03, 09:06 PM
What would they replace it with? It's one thing to replace "Camille" with "Charley", but how do you make a substitution when the order is "Alpha", "Beta", "Gamma", "Delta", etc... "Alpha", "Brenda", "Gamma", "Delta" looks pretty strange in my book.But they could just drop it from the sequence entirely: "Alpha", "Gamma", etc.

Presumably we won't reach the Greek storms very often, and when we do a name will be retired only rarely. Unless Glom is wrong about global warming, that is; and if so, we'll probably need something to follow the Greek names anyway.

Argos
2005-Oct-04, 01:34 PM
I see no trouble in just dropping "alpha".

ToSeek
2005-Oct-04, 02:19 PM
We could gradually switch to the Hebrew alphabet: aleph, beth, seth, etc.

publiusr
2005-Oct-05, 05:22 PM
I think they could use names from HPLs mythos.
Azathoth, Byatis...

snarkophilus
2005-Oct-05, 10:20 PM
I think they could use names from HPLs mythos.
Azathoth, Byatis...

Imagine the damage caused by hurricane Cthulhu! Mass insanity coupled with a 500 meter storm surge.... :)

TriangleMan
2005-Oct-06, 10:54 AM
Hurricane Cthulhu, a storm that man was not meant to know of . . . :whistle:

Maksutov
2005-Oct-06, 11:48 AM
Look out when Hurricane Tango Uniform approaches! :surprised

Wolverine
2005-Oct-07, 01:30 AM
... and that's no Bravo Sierra. :razz:

Lord Jubjub
2005-Oct-11, 01:06 AM
Well, we are at the 1/3 mark in October. Two Cat 1 hurricanes (Stan and Vince) and a tropical storm (Tammy).

Fitting that the record breaking storm (in terms of names used) should go to the strangest of the season. Looks like Gibralter is in for a soaking!

One further note. . .even if names had been used as far back as 1851, we still would not have needed to go beyond the current list in any year. In 1933, they would have reached the 'W' storm.

pghnative
2005-Oct-11, 12:57 PM
I wonder what the percentage of "found" storms was back in 1851? Probably not 100%.

publiusr
2005-Oct-12, 05:26 PM
Here is one for the stange column. Take a look at the book Divine Wind, and look at a certain piece of art and how it looks like the symbol of the hurricane used on weather maps...

parallaxicality
2005-Oct-12, 07:58 PM
What would they replace it with? It's one thing to replace "Camille" with "Charley", but how do you make a substitution when the order is "Alpha", "Beta", "Gamma", "Delta", etc... "Alpha", "Brenda", "Gamma", "Delta" looks pretty strange in my book.

My vote: Hebrew letters. Alpha becomes aleph, beta becomes beth and so on.

EDIT: Oops! Sorry ToSeek! My eyes must have skipped over your post!

Lord Jubjub
2005-Oct-15, 12:29 AM
Mark my words, we will have Tropical Storm (possibly Hurricane) Wilma by the end of next week. (Hey, I'm a weather geek!)

Sam5
2005-Oct-15, 02:10 AM
Hurricane Cthulhu, a storm that man was not meant to know of . . . :whistle:

How about using Aztec names?

Axochiapan

Xayacatlan

Yeloixtlahuacan

Juxtlahuaca

Malinaltepec

Cuatzoquitengo

Xochiltenango

ChromeStar
2005-Oct-16, 09:18 AM
Hi guys :D


My vote: Hebrew letters. Alpha becomes aleph, beta becomes beth and so on.

By the way Beth is not hebrew nor is seth etc..

It starts: Aleph, bet, gimmel, dalet, he, vav, ziyen, chet, tet, yod, caf etc...

heres a link if you like: www.jewfaq.org/alephbet.htm

Why not just give hurricanes names and numbers i.e. alpha 2-10- 2005
or alpha 10984HW or what ever...

<ChromeStar>

if you are interested in climate change and weather, visit my signature (the bottom link).

cyswxman
2005-Oct-19, 04:03 PM
I'll see if we can use names off the BAUT!!

Argos
2005-Oct-19, 11:14 PM
I&#180;ll start next season then. I promise to be nice. :)

mugaliens
2007-Oct-02, 04:16 PM
New Hurricane Forecast Calls for Busy October (http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/051003_hurricane_forecast.html).

And yet again (http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/weather/10/02/hurricane.forecast.ap/index.html), precisely two years later!

Well, almost precisely. It's a day earlier...

Kullat Nunu
2007-Oct-02, 05:23 PM
If Melissa was the last storm of this year, this season's activity would remain less than average even though there has already been two Category 5 hurricanes. But since that isn't likely and the actual activity will be higher. Of course, 2007 will be nowhere near 2005.

Romanus
2007-Oct-03, 12:47 PM
I think Gray and his team are wide of the mark; this season has consistently been less active than their forecast; September is normally the most active month, but shear seemed fairly high, and as the season drags on it will only get worse. I think the final numbers will be just about average, maybe even a little under.

While I admire his team's work (and I've followed it for years), I do miss the days when he issued his last update at the beginning of August and just bit the bullet until the end of the season, instead of issuing new forecasts monthly to get closer to the mark.

Fortunate
2007-Oct-03, 04:04 PM
Romanus,
We in Miami hope you are right. There has been a very large amount of shear in the Atlantic, shear which has chopped up most of the tropical waves coming from Africa. Meanwhile, though, conditions in the Carribean and the Gulf seem to have been favorable (from the hurricanes' point of view) and may become more favorable because of the strengthening La Nina. In the past, a lot of late season storms have formed in the Carribean (Mitch, Wilma, etc.), so we still may see some of those this year.

Kullat Nunu
2007-Oct-06, 08:39 PM
There's been a lot of activity recently but no storms have been able to develop because of the high wind shear.

Lord Jubjub
2007-Oct-06, 11:53 PM
Or if they do develop, they either take a westerly course (in which case they blow up to a Cat 5) or they head north and get shredded.

KaiYeves
2007-Oct-08, 02:40 AM
If we're going with Seth, might as well throw in the other Egyptian gods:
Amon-Re
Aten
Bastet
Bes...
Or disasters, starting with Hurricane Apollo 1 and going to Hurricane Titanic.

danscope
2007-Oct-08, 04:51 AM
All depends on how they get steered by the jet stream.
The 38 hurricane came up the coast like a super freight train. Forward speed of 65 miles per hour. Yes. Most of the instruments that measured it's power were simply destroyed. They figure it as a strong cat 4 to cat 5 . Providence had water up to the second floors downtown.
It gets ugly fast . And there was Donna , and Carol , and Diane ,
and Gloria and Bob. But the '38 was something else. We will probably see one like that again . I am hoping we are spared such a calamity.
And That's why I don't live down by the water, much as I love it.
When something like that hits, there is no sign that man had ever been there.
The wind and the Ocean take everything. Nature is omnipotent.

Best regards, Dan

hhEb09'1
2007-Oct-08, 08:30 AM
While I admire his team's work (and I've followed it for years), Just how good does this guy do? The article says "In 2006, his team forecast nine hurricanes, five of them major. Instead, there were just five hurricanes, two of them major." Seems like I could throw ten hurricanes down on the roulette wheel, and just let it ride.

danscope
2007-Oct-08, 07:44 PM
Hi, There are at least that many hurricanes trying to form. It is our great fortune that they sometimes get stripped while forming.
This IS a good thing. Don't complain.
Dan

hhEb09'1
2007-Oct-08, 09:54 PM
Moi? I'm not complaining about hurricanes, I'm just asking about the forecaster's track record

Romanus
2007-Oct-09, 12:47 AM
^
At the bottom of this page, he lists past forecasts and verifications to 2000, including the one for 2006; ones farther back than that used to be posted as well, but I've had trouble finding them (he's been doing it since 1984).


http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/nov2006/

danscope
2007-Oct-09, 02:50 AM
Moi? I'm not complaining about hurricanes, I'm just asking about the forecaster's track record

C'est bon!