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View Full Version : Is the 2005 hurricane season a fluke?



parallaxicality
2005-Oct-31, 10:51 PM
Or are we witnessing the beginning of a new standard for hurricane frequency and power in the Atlantic?

Taks
2005-Oct-31, 11:55 PM
this is certainly the busiest season in recorded history, however, that history does not go back very far. accuracy before about 1950 is hit and miss. there were a few periods that were nearly as active as this year, but not quite.

tough to say, since nobody really knows the primary cycle pattern. our sample size is just too small.

taks

Wolverine
2005-Nov-01, 04:13 PM
It's my understanding that the increased activity is attributable to the Atlantic being slightly warmer than the norm. Conversely, the Pacific has been slightly cooler, and typhoon formation has been behind the curve as a result. Gotta love this dynamic rock we inhabit.

Captain Kidd
2005-Nov-01, 05:03 PM
I've also heard mention of a fifteen year cycle coupled with the warmer waters. But 15 years would be just 3 full cycles back to the '50s, is that really enough time to get information for a credible benchmark?

In my opinion, one abnormal season isn't enough to cause alarm.

jkmccrann
2005-Nov-01, 05:11 PM
It's my understanding that the increased activity is attributable to the Atlantic being slightly warmer than the norm. Conversely, the Pacific has been slightly cooler, and typhoon formation has been behind the curve as a result. Gotta love this dynamic rock we inhabit.

I think its something that we'll likely have to get more used to in the future. There is no doubt global warming is occuring, the argument is about whether that's because of human impact or not or whether its part of some longer term cycle we don't fully understand.

As far as the Atlantic hurricane situation is concerned, there is talk of 25-3o year cycles of warmer temperatures precipitating increased Hurrican activity, and the speculation is that we're just in the process of entering one of those cycles right now, likley to last until sometime around 2020-2030 if it keeps to that length.

A good place to look for Hurricane related information is the NOAA website. There're actually a couple of articles here speculating on this very matter and predicting the season we've had and are experiencing.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/08/050805064901.htm


I think given all the speculation one has to assume more of the same in the future. Last year was also an increased season, very similar to this season.

Comparing this season to last season, if Hurricane Ivan had have gone in a slightly different direction last year, it might well have scored a direct hit on New Orleans back then and Katrina would have been merely a follow-up punch to the guts.

Given that, I think its a brave, or perhaps naive, person who chooses to live in New Orleans these days.

SolusLupus
2005-Nov-01, 05:37 PM
Y'know, property values in New Orleans would have gone down a HUGE amount...

I could probably move there for cheap. Hmm.

jkmccrann
2005-Nov-01, 05:40 PM
Y'know, property values in New Orleans would have gone down a HUGE amount...

I could probably move there for cheap. Hmm.

Probably, but make sure you take some sort of boat with you, or at least something inflatable? ;)

SolusLupus
2005-Nov-01, 05:45 PM
...or at least something inflatable?

Heeey! What are you suggesting, you little...

oh. Oh, you meant inflatable for the water! My bad O.O

I wonder if any more hurricaines will hit Louisiana, though. One place can only be hit so many times.

jkmccrann
2005-Nov-01, 05:54 PM
True, ah!, good on you, you picked up some of my scallywag humor! hehehehe.

Unfortunately I think it's fairly certain hurricanes will keep hitting Louisiana, and Mississippi, and Alabama, and (did anyone say Florida???), and looking at your postal there buddy, its got me wondering, when was the last time a Hurricane came through Corpus Christi?

You guys are south of Houston right?

SolusLupus
2005-Nov-01, 05:58 PM
Yeah. Rita missed us entirely (we didn't even get any rain). Last time a hurricaine came through here was Silia (sp?), and it was a few decades ago. Been a long time, and so buildings here are a little lax on the hurricaine protection.

jkmccrann
2005-Nov-01, 06:01 PM
Yeah. Rita missed us entirely (we didn't even get any rain). Last time a hurricaine came through here was Silia (sp?), and it was a few decades ago. Been a long time, and so buildings here are a little lax on the hurricaine protection.

Well, fraid to say it, but if next year is anything like this year, and last year for that matter, you guys could well be overdue, or maybe the whole Yucatan peninsula really acts as your insurance barrier pretty well, it seems to get in the way of quite a few of those monsters.

SolusLupus
2005-Nov-01, 06:03 PM
We have nice land shields to protect us. Rita was close to hitting us, and it was pretty lucky to drive up through that gap...

I feel rather secure, but when that mandatory evacuation is called, I'm gonna go bye-bye and visit my relatives up north.

Gillianren
2005-Nov-01, 09:17 PM
I suspect that's Celia.

SolusLupus
2005-Nov-01, 09:19 PM
Celia, right. I heard of it, but never read about it.

Gillianren
2005-Nov-01, 11:32 PM
Well, given the name, it'd be relatively early in the season--and the season seldom gets named hurricanes as far along as "S." Even though it manifestly did this year.

Manchurian Taikonaut
2006-Jun-11, 03:52 PM
Depression heralds start of hurricane season of '06
http://www.azstarnet.com/news/133134

Habitat to help Katrina victims
http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060608/NEWS01/606080302/1002

NOAA Warns Americans of Danger This Hurricane Season
http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/15592/

Lord Jubjub
2006-Jun-11, 11:40 PM
1995 and 2005 are the only two years with 'S' named storms

sarongsong
2006-Jun-12, 03:39 AM
Other forces at work?
May 11, 2006
...Many current and ongoing weather modification programs (80 listed by NOAA in 2005)...In addition to the experimental weather modification programs listed by NOAA, there are both private and ongoing government sponsored atmospheric testing and heating programs underway...All of these unregulated, private, government, and public weather modification programs, may also have unintended synergistic effects.
Senate Bill 517 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-517) does not address these issues but intends to implement more experimental weather modification programs without a national debate or public oversight... GlobalResearch.ca (http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=PET20060511&articleId=2423)

TriangleMan
2006-Jun-12, 05:22 AM
According to that bill 'weather modification' is:

Specifies activities related to weather modification that may be included under the program, including: (1) interdisciplinary research and coordination of research and activities to improve understanding of processes relating to weather modification, including cloud modeling, cloud seeding, improving forecast and decision-making technologies, related severe weather research, and potential adverse affects of weather modification; (2) development, through partnerships among federal agencies, states, and academic institutions, of new technologies and approaches for weather modification; and (3) scholarships and educational opportunities that encourage an interdisciplinary approach to weather modification.
So most of the bill is for supporting meterological research. Otherwise the only 'weather modifications' noted is cloud seeding, which is unrealted to hurricanes.

I'm all for more science research! :)

Tunga
2006-Jun-12, 08:11 PM
The 2004/2005 hurricane seasons were a double peak. This year should see the number of Category 3+ Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly.

sarongsong
2006-Jun-13, 01:09 AM
...Otherwise the only 'weather modifications' noted is cloud seeding, which is unrelated to hurricanes..."By artificial methods" seems to leave the door open.
...They [researchers] looked at four factors that are known to affect hurricane intensity:
- Humidity in the troposphere—the part of the atmosphere stretching from surface of the Earth to about 6 miles up...LiveScience (http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/060316_hurricane_sst.html)

...weather modification means changing or controlling, or attempting to change or control, by artificial methods the natural development of atmospheric cloud forms or precipitation forms which occur in the troposphere......research and development means theoretical analysis, exploration, experimentation, and the extension of investigative findings and theories of scientific or technical nature into practical application for experimental and demonstration purposes, including the experimental production and testing of models, devices, equipment, materials, and processes.
S517 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s109-517) and HR2995 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h109-2995)

Jim
2006-Jun-13, 12:50 PM
The 2004/2005 hurricane seasons were a double peak. This year should see the number of Category 3+ Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly.

Weeeell.

NOAA is forecasting 13-16 named storms; 2005 had 28, a record, so you'd expect a drop-off. But, average is 11, so the prediction is for above average activity.

For Cat 3 or better, the average is 6. 2005 had 7, and 2006 is forecast to have 8-10. That's above average and more than last year.

Tunga
2006-Jun-13, 01:50 PM
Jim

The year 2004 had 6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes, the year 2005 had 7. I sincerely doubt that NOAA is forecasting 8-10 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes for this year.
This year should see the number of Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly from the 2004/2005 levels. How low will they drop is anyone's guess but 2 or 3 total for 2006 is not unreasonable.

NEOWatcher
2006-Jun-13, 01:58 PM
Jim

The year 2004 had 6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes, the year 2005 had 7. I sincerely doubt that NOAA is forecasting 8-10 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes for this year.
This year should see the number of Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly from the 2004/2005 levels. How low will they drop is anyone's guess but 2 or 3 total for 2006 is not unreasonable.
I think you both have bit of data misidentified.*
8-10 hurricanes
4-6 at 3+

From NOAA site. (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm)


"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/) is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher (http://www.noaa.gov/lautenbacher.html), Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

* Only a clarification...not picking on either of you.

Tunga
2006-Jun-13, 02:19 PM
To sum up what I have said. The 2004/2005 hurricane seasons were a double peak. The year 2004 had 6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes, the year 2005 had 7. [NOAA is forecasting 4-6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes for this year. I feel they are operating a little on the cautions side.] This year should see the number of Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly from the 2004/2005 levels. How low will they drop is anyone's guess but 2 or 3 total for 2006 is not unreasonable.

Jim
2006-Jun-13, 04:13 PM
I think you both have bit of data misidentified.*
8-10 hurricanes
4-6 at 3+

From NOAA site. (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm)

* Only a clarification...not picking on either of you.

Oops, scanned too quickly. Thanks for the catch.


To sum up what I have said. The 2004/2005 hurricane seasons were a double peak. The year 2004 had 6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes, the year 2005 had 7. [NOAA is forecasting 4-6 Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes for this year. I feel they are operating a little on the cautions side.] This year should see the number of Cat 3+ major Atlantic hurricanes drop significantly from the 2004/2005 levels. How low will they drop is anyone's guess but 2 or 3 total for 2006 is not unreasonable.

NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. ... This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Predictions and actuals for 2004 showed:
NOAA, 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 Cat 3+
Gray, 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 Cat 3+
Actual, 14, 8, 3

For 2005:
NOAA, 12-15, 7-9, 3-5
Gray, 15, 8, 4
Actual, 28, 15, 7

For 2006:
NOAA, 13-16, 8-10, 4-6
Gray, 17, 9, 5

("Gray" is Dr. William Gray of CSU; he's been making very accurate storm predictions for several years now, and is considered an expert in the field.)

Yes, 2005 was far more active than anyone predicted. However, all indications at this time are that 2006 will be an above average season for storm activity.

Will it be a decrease from 2005? I certainly hope so.

Will it be below 2004? I doubt it, especially as we're experiencing the earliest Gulf storm in 40+ years.

Doodler
2006-Jun-13, 04:18 PM
Or are we witnessing the beginning of a new standard for hurricane frequency and power in the Atlantic?

Doubt it. I will be that we'll see more damage from hurricanes because there are more idiots overdeveloping the coastal areas, though. Rita and Katrina were NOT monster hurricanes when they made landfall. They just washed over and destroyed extremely underprepared and overbuilt areas of the gulf coast caused by people who think its their divine right to tell Mama Nature what to go do with herself.

I'm not complaining, every couple thousand fools that get themselves washed out with the hurricane season pushes the average IQ of the American people up a few points. Eventually, the herd of morons will be sufficiently culled and we'll start taking reasonable and intelligent precautions to mitigate the amount of potential damage that can be caused when an extremely commonplace Category 3 storm makes landfall.

Tunga
2006-Jun-13, 05:25 PM
Jim

Double peaks are rare. The few that have occurred are generally followed by a dramatic decrease in major storm activity in the following year. I will stick to my assessment of around 2 or 3 major Category 3+ Atlantic hurricanes for this year and that might even be on the high side.

Tensor
2006-Jun-13, 07:32 PM
Will it be a decrease from 2005? I certainly hope so.

I can certainly see why you hope so. Hope you don't mind if I join your club of hoping.

Ara Pacis
2006-Jun-13, 09:00 PM
Will it be below 2004? I doubt it, especially as we're experiencing the earliest Gulf storm in 40+ years.

Can you clarify what you mean by earliest gulf storm? in 2005 Tropical Storm Arlene formed near Honduras on June 9 and later hit the FL/AL border. In 2003 Tropical Storm Ana formed on April 20th, the earliest recorded tropical storm, I think. In 2001 Tropical Storm Allison formed on June 5th in the Gulf and hit Texas. I only went back to 2001.

Alberto didn't form in the Gulf, although it reached TS status in the gulf. Allison didn't form in the Gulf but reached TS status in the gulf. Allison was earlier in the year.

Gillianren
2006-Jun-13, 09:54 PM
Rita and Katrina were NOT monster hurricanes when they made landfall.

Wasn't Katrina a Category 4? Isn't that pretty big?

Jim
2006-Jun-13, 10:17 PM
Can you clarify what you mean by earliest gulf storm? ...

Oops, my bad. Had Alberto made landfall as a hurricane it would have been the earliest such landfall in 40 years.

HenrikOlsen
2006-Jun-14, 12:13 AM
Or are we witnessing the beginning of a new standard for hurricane frequency and power in the Atlantic?
We'll know in december.

Doodler
2006-Jun-14, 02:35 PM
Wasn't Katrina a Category 4? Isn't that pretty big?

First contact was as a Cat 4, but I seem to recall that she was a Cat 3 by the time the eye hit the ground. The flooding in New Orleans was the result of the remaining storm surge from when it was a Cat 4/5, but the storm itself had degraded substantially.

Captain Kidd
2006-Jun-14, 04:15 PM
First contact was as a Cat 4, but I seem to recall that she was a Cat 3 by the time the eye hit the ground. The flooding in New Orleans was the result of the remaining storm surge from when it was a Cat 4/5, but the storm itself had degraded substantially.Technically first landfall was as a Cat 1 in Flordia. But yes you're right, it had downgraded to a Cat 3 before its second, and third, landfalls. (From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina).)