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Fraser
2007-Mar-23, 07:52 PM
If you're planning a move in the next few years, you might want to consider thread from asteroid impact on your list of annoyances. Researchers from the University of Southampton have modeled the consequences of asteroid strikes around the Earth, and figured out which countries would suffer worst. ...

Read the full blog entry (http://www.universetoday.com/2007/03/23/the-countries-most-at-risk-to-asteroid-impacts/)

cran
2007-Mar-24, 02:51 AM
If you're planning a move in the next few years, you might want to consider thread from asteroid impact on your list of annoyances.
"consider thread"? ... sounds dangerously Pernese* to me ...

but I wasn't planning any moves from my stable cratonic highground ...


*from Anne McCaffrey's Dragon series

01101001
2007-Mar-24, 05:52 AM
Read the full blog entry (http://www.universetoday.com/2007/03/23/the-countries-most-at-risk-to-asteroid-impacts/)


The team calculated how severely various countries would be affected by a water strike in terms of lives lost and economic damage. China, Indonesia, India, Japan and the United States face the greatest overall threats.

Not unlike...

Wikipedia: List of countries by population (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population)


1 People's Republic of China 1,317,000,000
2 India 1,124,800,000
3 United States of America 301,500,000
4 Indonesia 234,500,000
10 Japan 127,417,000


But, I suppose to lose a lot of lives, a country's got to have a lot of lives.

ciderman
2007-Mar-24, 04:24 PM
from the University of Southampton News Release(my old University:)).

Taking a spherical stony asteroid travelling at 12,000 miles per second

:eek:
Wouldn't expect there to be much water left in an ocean basin at that speed!!

cran
2007-Mar-25, 03:07 AM
Not unlike...

Wikipedia: List of countries by population (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population)

1 People's Republic of China 1,317,000,000
2 India 1,124,800,000
3 United States of America 301,500,000
4 Indonesia 234,500,000
10 Japan 127,417,000
But, I suppose to lose a lot of lives, a country's got to have a lot of lives.
It's also a Who's Who of the Pacific Rim, except for India ... well, Indonesia is just outside but with a wet corridor ...

Eckelston
2007-Mar-25, 03:50 AM
12,000 miles a second? That asteroid must have come from outside the solar system. It isn't easy to think of any physical process that could create such speeds without actually destroying a 1 km object.

JonClarke
2007-Mar-26, 11:55 AM
12,000 miles a second? That asteroid must have come from outside the solar system. It isn't easy to think of any physical process that could create such speeds without actually destroying a 1 km object.

12 mi/s = 20 km/2 which is a not unreasonable round number for a typical asteroidal impact velocity.

"Typical impact velocities are 17 km/s for asteroids and 51 km/s for comets." http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ . For comets collison velocities can reach 72 km/s

John Mendenhall
2007-Mar-26, 03:08 PM
12 mi/s = 20 km/2 which is a not unreasonable round number for a typical asteroidal impact velocity.

"Typical impact velocities are 17 km/s for asteroids and 51 km/s for comets." http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ . For comets collison velocities can reach 72 km/s

And the site listed in JonClarke's post is very good.

JonClarke
2007-Mar-27, 12:04 AM
Not to mention fun! :)

Nick4
2007-Jun-07, 04:36 AM
I dont see how we can tell where an astroid is going to hit?

cran
2007-Jun-08, 02:50 AM
12,000 miles a second? That asteroid must have come from outside the solar system. It isn't easy to think of any physical process that could create such speeds without actually destroying a 1 km object.
I think it may have been a typo or a misinterpretation of the interview notes:

Taking a spherical stony asteroid travelling at 12,000 miles per second and ... a 100 metre diameter asteroid will predominantly cause localised casualties ... However, the consequences of a 200 metre diameter asteroid ... At 500 metres in diameter, almost any ocean impact will generate significant casualties and economic cost across the world.the units are from different systems, however m can mean both miles and metres ...
that would make the asteroid a much more prosaic 12km/s (~7.2 miles/sec), as per JonClarke's reference ...


Nick4: I dont see how we can tell where an astroid is going to hit? Well, from the moment an incoming asteroid is spotted, and confirmed, it would be tracked ...
the tracking data would be fed into a computer program which would correlate that data with Earth motion data ...
along with any other data which might influence the asteroid's path ...
the computer would "do its thing" ...
and spit out an "X marks the spot" result ...

Of course, the trick with all of that is to first spot your incoming with enough time to do the rest ...

publiusr
2007-Jun-15, 08:23 PM
Russia would seem to be the one most likely to be hit with all that surface area.

01101001
2007-Jun-15, 10:32 PM
Russia would seem to be the one most likely to be hit with all that surface area.

True, but this (press release (http://www.soton.ac.uk/ses/news/2007/mar/09bMar2007.shtml)) was a list ordered by likelihood and consequences -- deaths and economic loss.


The team used the raw data from the multiple impact simulations to rank each country based on the number of times and how severely they would be affected by each impact.

I suspect what pushes them lower on the list is that Russia hasn't concentrated people or stuff along a coast of a large ocean.

Ilya
2007-Jun-16, 12:44 AM
Russia is probably the only country in which a 100-meter asteroid might conceivably cause zero casualties.

OK, Canada and Australia are also possibilities.

Argos
2007-Jun-16, 02:12 PM
It would be wonderful to take a peek at the criteria they use to assess those probabilities.