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parallaxicality
2008-Jun-22, 09:06 PM
C'mon! You're all scientists, educated people. Tell me what the world will look like in 2020. If there's any truth to the wisdom of crowds, I'm sure we could come up with an accurate forecast.

chrissy
2008-Jun-22, 09:18 PM
I think it would be pretty much the same as now, just with newer things being invented , like even smaller I-pods, bigger TV's, higher taxes, mobile phones that control your car so you dont have to walk all the way to the car park!

mike alexander
2008-Jun-22, 10:12 PM
2020........

NASA will announce they are finally getting the bugs out of the Constellation program, with a successful launch no later than late 2024.

China will apologize for accidentally destroying the Tranquility site during their first manned lunar landing.

The Joint Controlled Nuclear Fusion Group will announce that controlled, cheap power from fusion reactors is no more than 50 years away.

The Northwest Passage will be hailed as the greatest side benefit from the loss of Arctic sea ice. New studies will indicate that Greenland's ice cap should remain stable until at least 2028, and the whole Antarctic thing should end up having minimal effects after the oceans stop sloshing.

Maksutov
2008-Jun-22, 10:15 PM
Everyone will have 2020 hindsight.

chrissy
2008-Jun-22, 10:17 PM
and regret spending too much money on that new years eve party, and should of invited that guy/gal round cos it might have been a bit more fun! :)

aurora
2008-Jun-22, 10:19 PM
And there will be a conspiracy theory that says the world will end in 2020 (since it didn't end during any of the previous years where it was predicted by those same people).

Chuck
2008-Jun-22, 10:47 PM
Computer scientists will predict true artificial intelligence is only ten years away.

Mars will become a new asteroid belt as the quest for remnants of life finally dismantles the planet.

Global warming enthusiasts will report the latest weather fluctuation from atop The Great Havana Glacier.

drainbread
2008-Jun-22, 11:04 PM
Some crackpot will predict the end of the world for Mar 14, 2025.

Romanus
2008-Jun-22, 11:30 PM
And there will be a conspiracy theory that says the world will end in 2020 (since it didn't end during any of the previous years where it was predicted by those same people).

QFT!

Lianachan
2008-Jun-22, 11:33 PM
Computer scientists will predict true artificial intelligence is only ten years away.

Also, fusion scientists will predict that electricity production from nuclear fusion will be viable within 50 years.

cosmocrazy
2008-Jun-22, 11:35 PM
One thing i can predict! Taxes!! urhhhhhh!!!

tdvance
2008-Jun-22, 11:38 PM
Nano-scale industry will begin mass production--superstrong cords, belts, sheets, (not as strong as "scrith" but still pretty strong given the weight) etc., all can be bought if you have a ton of money to put down--very expensive bulletproof vests will be one application. Another will be suspension bridges.

Metamaterials research will have advanced--things like nearly-zero friction surfaces will not be in stores, but will be in labs--think of windshields that need no wipers. It's overkill for a nonstick cooking pan though--one shake and the eggs are on the floor.

Diamonds will still be jewelry, but you will need some magnification and expert eyes to tell the natural from the artificial--the giveaway is the natural will have flaws. People will wear cheap (relatively) diamonds, and only those wanting status own the real--and even then, will wear fake duplicates most of the time, keeping the real locked safely away.

Flying cars will be available to purchase (small personal helicopters)--but will be mostly toys. Few would be able to afford the "car", the licensing needed to fly it, and also be willing to ride in such a deathtrap (relatively speaking, probably safer than the earliest planes) and anyway, no parking facilities for them, as not enough demand to justify them.

The web will be semantically-organized rather than keyword-organized. What that means in practice is you can search for things and actually get what you're looking for (auto-generated even, not necessarily an existing web page), by typing things like "I want information on the story 'Snow White', literary commentary and history, and the original fairy tail, not Disney" and instead of a page listing web sites that contain "snow white" and, ironically, "disney", you get an on-the-fly generated report giving a summary of information about the fairy tail "Snow White", with Disney stuff conveniently left out, and each piece of information with references to web pages you can click on for more information--as well as some indication of the reliability of the references.

The RFID grocery shopping promised 30 years ago will finally be here--you need only push the shopping cart under an arch, and a list of items and prices will be generated. Then, 2020 being even more "self serve" than 2008, you bag it yourself and pay. You will also see news stories of people "cheated" because a practical joker found the RFID tag in something he bought and dropped it in someone's cart, for example. The stores will be to blame, according to the news stories, not the jerk who did it.

Newspapers will still exist, but only for the few who still prefer to read their news that way. The smaller papers will either fold or be 100% online and free (with advertising at levels of obnoxiousness not even seen in 2008). WaPo and NYT will still be there, but only a shell of their former selves--leaner, meaner, and less profitable.

Television will be mostly pay per view and on-demand type services, rather than scheduled programming. Bluetooth will blur the distinction between your TV, your stereo, and your computer, as all will be on the same network.

Chuck
2008-Jun-22, 11:48 PM
The two term limit for U.S. presidents will be repealed just in time for Dick Cheney to run for a third term.

Windows XP service pack 50 comes out as the debugging of Windows Vista continues.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-22, 11:51 PM
Food Central will be a reality. Press a series of buttons and your meal will be delivered to your home in minutes.

It will be run by McDonalds, so you will have a 62% chance of getting what you ordered.

chrissy
2008-Jun-23, 12:29 AM
then McDonalds will improve delivery and correct orders by 83%

mike alexander
2008-Jun-23, 12:31 AM
When you go with the lowest bidder, why are you ever surprised with what you get?

Jens
2008-Jun-23, 01:59 AM
C'mon! You're all scientists, educated people. Tell me what the world will look like in 2020. If there's any truth to the wisdom of crowds, I'm sure we could come up with an accurate forecast.

It will be mostly ocean, probably two thirds, and the rest will be some flat lands with mountain ranges.

Maksutov
2008-Jun-23, 02:09 AM
Also, fusion scientists will predict that electricity production from nuclear fusion will be viable within 50 years.Where have I seen that prediction before? (http://www.bautforum.com/1267994-post3.html)

:think:

:lol:

mike alexander
2008-Jun-23, 05:11 AM
The Pak fleet will be twelve years closer to earth.

AGN Fuel
2008-Jun-23, 06:27 AM
Bart5050 will threaten to leave the 'Alien Abduction' thread in the Conspiracy Theories forum.

Maksutov
2008-Jun-23, 06:41 AM
Bart5050 will threaten to leave the 'Alien Abduction' thread in the Conspiracy Theories forum. :lol:

Too good!

Stroller
2008-Jun-23, 08:27 AM
The influx of refugees from Canada and the northern states will be putting pressure on the south, already struggling with food production.

Al Gore will still be maintaining that global cooling is due to global warming.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-23, 08:35 AM
Part of the problem is that I'm already in my future. Except it's the wrong one. Lots of the neat things are in my past: moon landings, computers, 34 inch waist...

Whirlpool
2008-Jun-23, 08:36 AM
By that year, I'm having a headache in dealing with a 16 yr old teenager.

:doh:

Damburger
2008-Jun-23, 11:11 AM
Most of the worlds 12 billion or so people will be involved in a death struggle over scarce clean water supplies. Mass starvation will be dire. This will be made worse by an energy shortage. Westerners will miraculously become aware of the problems of other parts of the world when their own petroleum and electricity use is tightly rationed.

SeanF
2008-Jun-23, 01:18 PM
By that year, I'm having a headache in dealing with a 16 yr old teenager.

:doh:
Hey, me, too!

tdvance
2008-Jun-23, 05:17 PM
Food Central will be a reality. Press a series of buttons and your meal will be delivered to your home in minutes.

It will be run by McDonalds, so you will have a 62% chance of getting what you ordered.


Well, hopefully Demolition Man is wrong and all restaurants are not Taco Bell!

tdvance
2008-Jun-23, 05:20 PM
Most of the worlds 12 billion or so people will be involved in a death struggle over scarce clean water supplies. Mass starvation will be dire. This will be made worse by an energy shortage. Westerners will miraculously become aware of the problems of other parts of the world when their own petroleum and electricity use is tightly rationed.

I'd predict that people will be predicting that in 10 years most of the world's 16 billion people will be involved in a death struggle over scarce clean water supplies, mass starvation will be dire, made worse by energy shortage and there will be rationing in the west. Paralleling similar predictions made 10 and 20 years and longer ago.

banquo's_bumble_puppy
2008-Jun-23, 05:31 PM
humanity will come together as we realize that what we have is finite
fossil fuels (for vehicles) will mostly be a thing of the past/hydrogen fuel cells will power what makes us go
people will have become more self-sufficient with many growing their own food/there will be a trend toward communalism
capitalism will begin to die
cities will be transformed in a greening revolution
contact with an alien race will take many by surprise- this will be one way (ie a signal)

weatherc
2008-Jun-23, 06:04 PM
capitalism will begin to die


tdvance, you might want to add this one to your list of things that people will be predicting 10 years from now, paralleling similar predictions from ten, twenty, and more years ago.

Swift
2008-Jun-23, 06:15 PM
Heck, forget 2020, I barely understand 2008.

tdvance
2008-Jun-23, 06:16 PM
yeah--I just read something from the '60s in which Kruch...crusche...what's-his-name the shoe banger, was saying America was at the point of surrender and it wouldn't be long now.

farmerjumperdon
2008-Jun-23, 06:17 PM
Nano-scale industry will begin mass production--superstrong cords, belts, sheets, (not as strong as "scrith" but still pretty strong given the weight) etc., all can be bought if you have a ton of money to put down--very expensive bulletproof vests will be one application. Another will be suspension bridges.

Metamaterials research will have advanced--things like nearly-zero friction surfaces will not be in stores, but will be in labs--think of windshields that need no wipers. It's overkill for a nonstick cooking pan though--one shake and the eggs are on the floor.

Diamonds will still be jewelry, but you will need some magnification and expert eyes to tell the natural from the artificial--the giveaway is the natural will have flaws. People will wear cheap (relatively) diamonds, and only those wanting status own the real--and even then, will wear fake duplicates most of the time, keeping the real locked safely away.

Flying cars will be available to purchase (small personal helicopters)--but will be mostly toys. Few would be able to afford the "car", the licensing needed to fly it, and also be willing to ride in such a deathtrap (relatively speaking, probably safer than the earliest planes) and anyway, no parking facilities for them, as not enough demand to justify them.

The web will be semantically-organized rather than keyword-organized. What that means in practice is you can search for things and actually get what you're looking for (auto-generated even, not necessarily an existing web page), by typing things like "I want information on the story 'Snow White', literary commentary and history, and the original fairy tail, not Disney" and instead of a page listing web sites that contain "snow white" and, ironically, "disney", you get an on-the-fly generated report giving a summary of information about the fairy tail "Snow White", with Disney stuff conveniently left out, and each piece of information with references to web pages you can click on for more information--as well as some indication of the reliability of the references.

The RFID grocery shopping promised 30 years ago will finally be here--you need only push the shopping cart under an arch, and a list of items and prices will be generated. Then, 2020 being even more "self serve" than 2008, you bag it yourself and pay. You will also see news stories of people "cheated" because a practical joker found the RFID tag in something he bought and dropped it in someone's cart, for example. The stores will be to blame, according to the news stories, not the jerk who did it.

Newspapers will still exist, but only for the few who still prefer to read their news that way. The smaller papers will either fold or be 100% online and free (with advertising at levels of obnoxiousness not even seen in 2008). WaPo and NYT will still be there, but only a shell of their former selves--leaner, meaner, and less profitable.

Television will be mostly pay per view and on-demand type services, rather than scheduled programming. Bluetooth will blur the distinction between your TV, your stereo, and your computer, as all will be on the same network.

Most of this one is already true.

farmerjumperdon
2008-Jun-23, 06:23 PM
yeah--I just read something from the '60s in which Kruch...crusche...what's-his-name the shoe banger, was saying America was at the point of surrender and it wouldn't be long now.

That is because communism is basically a religion (an idea of how things ought to be, regardless of reality), and capitalism is a name given to what actually drives people (self interest).

DyerWolf
2008-Jun-23, 06:46 PM
I expect it will be something nobody expects (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHGOl-jfUK0&feature=related).

Drunk Vegan
2008-Jun-23, 08:13 PM
I'd predict that people will be predicting that in 10 years most of the world's 16 billion people will be involved in a death struggle over scarce clean water supplies, mass starvation will be dire, made worse by energy shortage and there will be rationing in the west. Paralleling similar predictions made 10 and 20 years and longer ago.

Minus the part about rationing, the predictions have been true. We can cram as many people as we want on to this planet, but even with genetically modified crops and worldwide distribution networks to get food to the poor, you're still going to have half the population living at starvation level.

Whether it's 3/6 billion, 6/12 billion, or 50/100 billion, the ratio will stay relatively the same unless there's some paradigm-smashing change in the world civilization - like, say, the forming of a global government which distributes food evenly.

The real problem with half the population living near starvation is just that you can easily lose hundreds of millions of people if there's a disaster severe enough to cut off their aid from the rich nations.

As to my prediction:

"Today the Columbus mission has successfully passed the heliopause, the area marking the boundary of our solar system and the end of the first leg of its journey. Now it will continue on course To Alpha Centauri's fourth planet for the next 420 years, after which it will attempt to colonize the habitable planet which has been found there.

The discovery of the first habitable planet orbiting the nearest star to Earth in 2010 couldn't have come at a better time. 5 years later it was discovered that the environment has been so badly polluted that there are enormous gaps in the ecological chain which are causing mass extinction of species. It is expected that by 2050 there will be less than 1% of the genetic diversity once enjoyed by our biosphere, and there is some concern that the genetically engineered bacteria which has been killing plantlife throughout Africa and the Middle East may spread to the rest of the world, resulting in mass starvation."

Okay, the first part isn't likely, but I can always dream.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-23, 08:35 PM
Time travel will become a reality. This will be followed by millions of curious people going back in time to kill their grandparents to see if it will make them disappear. The success of this enterprise will reduce the population of earth to three, who will call themselves Adam, Eve, and Bill Gates.

DyerWolf
2008-Jun-23, 08:37 PM
Time travel will become a reality. This will be followed by millions of curious people going back in time to kill their grandparents to see if it will make them disappear. The success of this enterprise will reduce the population of earth to three, who will call themselves Adam, Eve, and Bill Gates.

If this is true, I suspect Ms. Eve will find herself VERY popular.

Damburger
2008-Jun-23, 10:04 PM
That is because communism is basically a religion (an idea of how things ought to be, regardless of reality), and capitalism is a name given to what actually drives people (self interest).

This kind of bullheaded ideology (I won't even begin to pick apart the utter factual wrongness of your statements, as that wouldn't be allowed) is the kind of thing that will make dire predictions such as mine come true. Terrible things can't be prevented if people refuse to change in the face of evidence.

Argos
2008-Jun-23, 10:16 PM
The poster must be in his 20īs, else he would know that 12 years is just a wink. Aside fancy gadgets, expect things to be the same as today [if not worse].

mike alexander
2008-Jun-23, 10:31 PM
Communism and capitalism will be merged into an entity known as "Capcom", which will be based in Houston, Texas. The slogan will be, "From each according to his ability, to each according to his greed."

By 2050 the basis for Capcom will collapse when direct brain data transfer will be perfected, allowing anyone to experience anything, indistinguishable from reality, by brain stimulation. By removing the necessity for anything else, the world economy will collapse (although no one will notice). The world will then be taken over by McDonald's, which will feed 24 hour continuous commercials to everyone on the planet. By 2053 everyone will have died from hardening of the arteries except three people; Adam, Eve and Bill Gates. Gates will squeeze Adam out by refusing to release the source code for Microsoft Brain, but will learn too late that 'Eve' is a nickname for 'Evian', grandson of the bottled-water entrepreneur.

tdvance
2008-Jun-23, 11:32 PM
This kind of bullheaded ideology (I won't even begin to pick apart the utter factual wrongness of your statements, as that wouldn't be allowed) is the kind of thing that will make dire predictions such as mine come true. Terrible things can't be prevented if people refuse to change in the face of evidence.

You mean in the face of evidence like, the fall of the Soviet Union, the slow but continuing capitalization of China, the dire circumstances and instability of North Korea?

tdvance
2008-Jun-23, 11:37 PM
More predictions--by 2020, North Korea will have a fundamentally different system of government (as different as USSR versus today's Russia), one way or another.

China will continue the slow march toward capitalism, but the differences between then and now will be slight, not like North Korea.

No new Communist regimes will emerge in that time.

Nevertheless, the percentage of people with dire predictions will be largely unchanged from today or 10 years ago or 100 years ago.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-24, 01:11 AM
Intelligent life will be discovered on earth, but nobody will know what to do with it.

Pope John XXIV will beatify Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan after confirming their miraculous ability to produce money from the gullible in endless quantities.

Japanese whalers will apologise for accidentally harpooning Al Gore.

Saturday Night Live will celebtate its 45th anniversary with a CGI John Belushi who will say nothing but "No Coke; Pepsi".

Hillary Clinton will announce her intention to run for President in 2024, saying "73 is the new 40"

Apple will introduce the iSnot, a terabyte music device worn in the nose ("With rings on her fingers/ And bells on her toes/ She shall have music/ Pour out of her nose").

Beer will be found to cause cancer.

Baseball will finally make use of steriods mandatory.

Delvo
2008-Jun-24, 02:02 AM
If fusion really is as hopeless as some of you seem to believe, then a big research facility in southern France (which is not yet built) with that as its goal will have spent years failing and throwing its backers' money away.

Biofuel will be commercially produced in tanks/vats of microbes, which will contribute some fraction of the world's "fossil" fuel supply but not have completely replaced the geological sources yet. Meat will be produced in some labs in the form of real animal muscles grown from cells that had been engineered to only grow muscle and not the rest of the body, but it won't be commercially viable yet; that will take more years to perfect the flavors and textures and convince consumers that it isn't gross or inferior in some other way (even after nobody can really tell the difference anymore). What will be closer to commercial viability than that is tanks/vats of microbes producing plastics instead of fuels, possibly including heavy-duty structural-grade polymers in the shapes that wood products are made in today, to compete in the lumber market.

China will have invaded several more neighboring countries, not just for the glory of the Empire and to seize resources, but also to knock down China's main coming internal demographic problem, a vast surplus of young men with nearly no chance of getting women in their own country and nearly no economic/social mobility or career prospects. The big Occidental powers will not have intervened because we simply lack the will to engage in military activity on such a large scale. (We will have invasion plans, and I can even picture the general idea of how they'd work, but they won't be used.) It will be a conventional land war limited only by the avoidance prompting of a few other countries' nukes (at least unless and until China can manage to do "surgical strikes" on the other nuclear countries' launching sites to eliminate those threats).

The globe will be warmer, but there will be a growing tendency for some people to say that's a good thing, not a catastrophe.

Ronald Brak
2008-Jun-24, 02:13 AM
Minus the part about rationing, the predictions have been true. We can cram as many people as we want on to this planet, but even with genetically modified crops and worldwide distribution networks to get food to the poor, you're still going to have half the population living at starvation level.

Whether it's 3/6 billion, 6/12 billion, or 50/100 billion, the ratio will stay relatively the same unless there's some paradigm-smashing change in the world civilization - like, say, the forming of a global government which distributes food evenly.

I think you need to check the actual figures. They don't support what you've said.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Percentage_living_on_less_than_%241_per_day_ 1981-2001.png

http://images.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Food_production_per_capita_1961-2005.png&imgrefurl=http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Food_production_per_capita_1961-2005.png&h=481&w=436&sz=6&hl=en&start=11&sig2=P2AGhQm9LrO6EmFto_pdwg&tbnid=aLxuMDB6AuE1FM:&tbnh=129&tbnw=117&ei=x1ZgSKHSCJiuiAH87LijDA&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dworld%2Bfood%2Bproduction%2Bby%2Byear %26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG

Graybeard6
2008-Jun-24, 02:47 AM
There will be no year 2020. I just looked at my driver's license, and it expires on September 20, 2012. Obviously, if I'm unable to drive, the Woo-Woos are right and the world will end.

Drunk Vegan
2008-Jun-24, 03:43 AM
I think you need to check the actual figures. They don't support what you've said.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Percentage_living_on_less_than_%241_per_day_ 1981-2001.png

http://images.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Food_production_per_capita_1961-2005.png&imgrefurl=http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Food_production_per_capita_1961-2005.png&h=481&w=436&sz=6&hl=en&start=11&sig2=P2AGhQm9LrO6EmFto_pdwg&tbnid=aLxuMDB6AuE1FM:&tbnh=129&tbnw=117&ei=x1ZgSKHSCJiuiAH87LijDA&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dworld%2Bfood%2Bproduction%2Bby%2Byear %26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG


Seems like a pretty incomplete data set. How many living on $2 per day? How many on $3?

How much money does it take to buy an adequate amount of food? I'd wager $2 or $3 a day is just as dire as $1 a day, especially in areas where food is scarce.

And as for increased food production, it mirrors increased population:

mike alexander
2008-Jun-24, 05:01 AM
Delvo wrote:
If fusion really is as hopeless as some of you seem to believe, then a big research facility in southern France (which is not yet built) with that as its goal will have spent years failing and throwing its backers' money away.

Borrowing from Dirac: that was a statement, not a question. Next question?


China will have invaded several more neighboring countries, not just for the glory of the Empire and to seize resources, but also to knock down China's main coming internal demographic problem, a vast surplus of young men with nearly no chance of getting women in their own country and nearly no economic/social mobility or career prospects. The big Occidental powers will not have intervened because we simply lack the will to engage in military activity on such a large scale.....

...and so on. Whew.

China Needs Women! Muahhahahahaheehee! (a film by Roger Corman)

Yessssss... sneaky Asian make short work of spineless white man! And after we ret him go to UCRA!

Ronald Brak
2008-Jun-24, 05:02 AM
Seems like a pretty incomplete data set. How many living on $2 per day? How many on $3?

I don't know, you'll have to do that research yourself. But the point is there has been a huge drop in people living in extreme poverty. That is less than a dollar a day with most of the gains concentrated in China and India. Extreme poverty dropped from 59% of the world's population to 19% of the world's population in the 20th century and is now the lowest it has been in history.


How much money does it take to buy an adequate amount of food?

Wheat is now selling for about $430 a ton. Or 43 cents a kilo. If tranportation and retail double that cost then 8,000 kilojoules worth of grain would cost about 33 cents.


I'd wager $2 or $3 a day is just as dire as $1 a day, especially in areas where food is scarce.

Actually a person on $2 a day has twice the purchasing power of someone on $1 a day and a person on $3 a day has three times the purchasing power of someone on $1 a day.


And as for increased food production, it mirrors increased population:

The graph is food production per capita.

Jens
2008-Jun-24, 05:37 AM
yeah--I just read something from the '60s in which Kruch...crusche...what's-his-name the shoe banger, was saying America was at the point of surrender and it wouldn't be long now.

Khrushchev. I think the quote was "we will bury you" or something to that effect.

Ronald Brak
2008-Jun-24, 05:55 AM
China will have invaded several more neighboring countries, not just for the glory of the Empire and to seize resources, but also to knock down China's main coming internal demographic problem, a vast surplus of young men with nearly no chance of getting women in their own country and nearly no economic/social mobility or career prospects. The big Occidental powers will not have intervened because we simply lack the will to engage in military activity on such a large scale.....

Funny you know, I've never heard a guy say, "I can't find a date for Friday night, gee that makes me feel like invading Burma." And the Chinese government always has the option of promoting Male Interest in Later Female Sexuality to solve the problem.

But here are some actual figures, just for the heck of it.
Chinese male to female ratio: 1.06 to 1.00
Chinese life expectancy male: 71.37 Female 75.18
Average Chinese age at first marriage male: 23.8 Female: 22.1
Chinese divorce rate 19.3%
Percentage of Chinese virgins at first marriage 30 years ago: 84% Percentage today: 30%
Homosexuality decriminalized in 2001
Male homosexuals in Hangzhou: 0.58%
Self identifying homosexuals Australia Male: 1.6% Female: 0.8%
Chinese male orientated sex toy production: 70% of world total.
Sex shops in Beijing 1992: 0 Today: 2,000
China PPP GDP per capita: $5,300 economic growth 11.4%
North Korea PPP GDP per capita: $1,900 economic growth -1.1%
Myanmar PPP GDP per capita: $1,900 economic growth 5.5%

I'll leave it up to people to draw their own conclusions about what is likely to happen in China in the future with regards to male/female age at marriage, increasing divorce rates, relationships outside of marriage, increasing homosexuality, the ability of chinese males to afford mail order brides from poorer countries, and the um, substitution of, ah, captial for, er, labour with regards to relationships.

ravens_cry
2008-Jun-24, 06:49 AM
In the future. . .
People will be born, and people will die,
People will shout for war, people will cry for peace,
People miss the good old days, and people will dream of a brighter tomorrow
Children will go to school, and Adults will learn to read for the first time
There will be trendy cloths, and fashion no-no's
A man will murder his brother, A man will save a child from a burning building,
There will be hurricanes and typhoons, and clear crystal mornings to break the heart,
There will something new people will hate, there will be something old destroyed by apathy,
There will be evening and there will be morning, and behind that the night,
And if I am alive,
As I hope to be,
I will look up at the stars,
And dive clean through infinity

Damburger
2008-Jun-24, 12:16 PM
You mean in the face of evidence like, the fall of the Soviet Union, the slow but continuing capitalization of China, the dire circumstances and instability of North Korea?

How can people face the problems of the future when stuck in this laughable cold war mentality? You still mentally divide the world into capitalism and communism, and define anything that isn't American capitalism as it exists today as some degree of evil and failure. By definition you refuse any social change because it would deviate from what you see as a perfect system.

This kind of attitude is why global starvation is around 11 million per year. People like you are so emotionally invested in the current state of affairs that you are simply unable to change. Fortunately, you are able to grow old and die - hopefully leaving the Earth for people who don't think that history has ended.

farmerjumperdon
2008-Jun-24, 12:53 PM
This kind of bullheaded ideology (I won't even begin to pick apart the utter factual wrongness of your statements, as that wouldn't be allowed) is the kind of thing that will make dire predictions such as mine come true. Terrible things can't be prevented if people refuse to change in the face of evidence.

You are free to refute (or pick away as you put it) as long as you stay away from personal attacks. Please point out the factual wrongness. Exactly how would you like to see people change? By rule of law into some society that some segment of the population has decided is the way things ought to be? Which segment of society gets to decide that?

My point is that what we have come to call capitalism is about optimizing self interest. It is what we do, regardless of the altruistic rhetoric people spew in order to convince others they know what is right. Personal self interest drives behavior. Accumulated individual behaviors constitute the aggregate forces we call markets.

Communism, in the form of a central authority telling each individual what they will do for a livelihood, what they will do with their earnings, where and how they will live, etc is about as unnatural a way of living as it gets. Thankfully, there appear to be enough bullheaded people about to keep the growing mass that wants every facet of their life determined by someone else from gaining complete control.

Damburger
2008-Jun-24, 01:12 PM
You are free to refute (or pick away as you put it) as long as you stay away from personal attacks. Please point out the factual wrongness. Exactly how would you like to see people change? By rule of law into some society that some segment of the population has decided is the way things ought to be? Which segment of society gets to decide that?

You don't recognise anything other than communism and capitalism (and have very rigid ideas about both of those). You assume that modern western capitalism is somehow the 'natural' state of human kind, and any attempt to live in any other way requires working against 'human nature'. Both of which are utter rubbish of course - if there is any human nature it is geared towards living as a hunter-gatherer in Africa a million years ago. It really has little meaning for modern people except as a cheap rhetorical prop for weak arguments. Experiments have long ago refuted the idea that peoples behavior is dictated by solely by biology and survival instincts.


My point is that what we have come to call capitalism is about optimizing self interest. It is what we do, regardless of the altruistic rhetoric people spew in order to convince others they know what is right. Personal self interest drives behavior. Accumulated individual behaviors constitute the aggregate forces we call markets.


*yawn* heard it all before, its still rubbish. To educate yourself, go and watch 'the trap' by Adam Curtis. The model of humanity you present is laughably simple, contrary to experimental data, and ultimately the product of a great thinker who was nevertheless mentally ill and now accepts this as the origin of much of the abuse of his theories.

The idea that all altruism is just rhetoric is not falsifiable. If you witness any altruistic act you will simply assume the person has an ulterior motive, thus you can continue to believe your cynical view of people in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.



Communism, in the form of a central authority telling each individual what they will do for a livelihood, what they will do with their earnings, where and how they will live, etc is about as unnatural a way of living as it gets. Thankfully, there appear to be enough bullheaded people about to keep the growing mass that wants every facet of their life determined by someone else from gaining complete control.

So let me see if I understand you correctly. Any system which doesn't follow your definition of capitalism results in totalitarian control over every aspect of a persons working and social life? I think you need to stop reading Ayn Rand, go and live in the real world for a bit, and start thinking instead of reacting.

tdvance
2008-Jun-24, 02:44 PM
Let's wait till 2020 then--see if Damburger is right or not. I'm keeping my retirement account active and will continue to pay into it (i.e. I'm betting, literally, hundreds of thousands of dollars that Damburger is wrong).

Damburger
2008-Jun-24, 02:49 PM
Let's wait till 2020 then--see if Damburger is right or not. I'm keeping my retirement account active and will continue to pay into it (i.e. I'm betting, literally, hundreds of thousands of dollars that Damburger is wrong).

Thats a poor substitute for an argument.

tdvance
2008-Jun-24, 04:51 PM
Well, it means I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is--how much money do you invest to make sure you are well positioned when the world becomes communist, etc.?

Damburger
2008-Jun-24, 05:16 PM
Well, it means I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is--how much money do you invest to make sure you are well positioned when the world becomes communist, etc.?

And where did I advocate communism? I simply said that fundamental change was needed. This is part of the problem - older people are in defensive cold war mode where they are programmed to assume any deviation from pure, apple pie American capitalism is the work of Teh Reds.

Disinfo Agent
2008-Jun-24, 05:21 PM
Nice job, Mike. Have you thought of writing for the Late Night show?

tdvance
2008-Jun-24, 06:21 PM
And where did I advocate communism? I simply said that fundamental change was needed. This is part of the problem - older people are in defensive cold war mode where they are programmed to assume any deviation from pure, apple pie American capitalism is the work of Teh Reds.

I didn't say you advocated communism--you did say that we were headed that way. That's not the first post in this thread from you that attributed statements to others that were never made. Nobody on this thread said that any deviation from capitalism is the work of the reds either.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-24, 06:21 PM
Nice job, Mike. Have you thought of writing for the Late Night show?

No, I think The Onion is closer to my philosophy, but it's a closed shop.

I've sold a few essays recently, and spent the last two years writing a novel in my spare time. Queries on it are out with some agents at present.

sabianq
2008-Jun-24, 06:36 PM
The disposable Contact Lens processor will literally be a computer etched into the contact lens. It will have the ability to project images directly onto the retina while acting as a camera. Advances in artificial intelligence will allow the processor to be controlled by a mere thought. the processor will beable to detect changes in the body and warn the wearer of problems related to stress, hypothermia, dehydration, and even a chemical attack.

The wearer will be able to record everything he or she sees and hears. Will keep him or her up to date on everything from current news to stock options and have instant communication with any individual on the globe. Augmented reality programs will be all the rage and will be able to be downloaded from a wireless network they shall be unlimited and user definable and will include everything from medical techniques, machinery repair, signal flow and wine tasting.

The contact lens itself will have a petabyte of storage but will up link and dump all information to a personal data base at the users request.

so cool!
http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2008/01/27/contact-lenses-transmit-computer-images-and-data-directly-into-the-eyes/
http://aftermathnews.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/contact-lens-bionic-vision.jpg?w=450&h=268

ravens_cry
2008-Jun-24, 08:05 PM
Why are you happy about this?! With this, literly everywhere you looked, you could be spammed. Cellphones while driving will have nothing on this! You could be 'knowing' your partner in love, when BAM, up comes an ad for a Long John Extender by Z-Tel. Or if your anti-popup software fails, and you get mobbed like in a scene from The Birds by flying offers claiming you won the latest iGobildy-Gook, and you run down the street in terror, from something only you can see. Sure you are 'connected' but how conncected do you have to be?
Not a future I like the look of.
To quote P. J. Fry, "My God, it's full of ads!"

Damburger
2008-Jun-24, 08:15 PM
I didn't say you advocated communism--you did say that we were headed that way. That's not the first post in this thread from you that attributed statements to others that were never made. Nobody on this thread said that any deviation from capitalism is the work of the reds either.

I never said we were headed that way. Its ironic that you would accuse me of doing what you are right this moment doing.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-24, 08:18 PM
To quote P. J. Fry, "My God, it's full of ads!"

And so tell me... just what do you have against capitalism? Don't you realize that "I'm lovin' it" will be the National Anthem in 2020? Quick, precise, says it all in four syllables. Without all those advertisements how would you know what to BUY? If you

"Brains! They're overrated!
Thinking is soooo dated!
It's so easy just to do
What we tell you, you, you!

(Brought to you by Microsoft Brain)

We now continue with the thread

try to keep thinking for yourself you will just be labelled as different. You don't want that, do you, you, you?

farmerjumperdon
2008-Jun-24, 08:20 PM
I do not think there is such a thing as a perfect system, and I also think pure capitalism, as well as pure communism, do not exist. They do however, as ideologies, represent opposite end extremes of a spectrum.

Because humans are largely if not completely self-serving, there will always be the struggle between what is good for any one individual and what is good for the society. They will never be the same, hence the neverending evolution, or better put, trying on of different flavors of types of governments and economic systems.

antoniseb
2008-Jun-24, 08:22 PM
Congressional budgetting office will confer with actuarial scientists about whether it will be cheaper to give everyone longevity medicine, or to pay social security, and the longevity medicine will win.

A company that doesn't exist now will buy the last remnants of Microsoft

Everyone's movements in public places will be a matter of easily accessed public record

There will be a market for the bulk material in urban landfills

Phoenix will go back to being a place for people getting away from alergens.

ravens_cry
2008-Jun-24, 08:34 PM
And so tell me... just what do you have against capitalism? Don't you realize that "I'm lovin' it" will be the National Anthem in 2020? Quick, precise, says it all in four syllables. Without all those advertisements how would you know what to BUY? If you

"Brains! They're overrated!
Thinking is soooo dated!
It's so easy just to do
What we tell you, you, you!

(Brought to you by Microsoft Brain)

We now continue with the thread

try to keep thinking for yourself you will just be labelled as different. You don't want that, do you, you, you?
Actually, I don't have to much against capitilisum, with variotion based on local situation, it works. Communisum doesn't work. China may still pay lip service to it, but the industrial processus that make the the wealth of the nation, are capitilist. Cuba is still rather communist, and is NOT working. However, a swift transition over to free run capitalisum( like Russia tried) would be painful, just like the industrial revolution was painful. The prosperity that the industruialized nations have has been a long growth process.

tdvance
2008-Jun-25, 05:59 PM
I never said we were headed that way. Its ironic that you would accuse me of doing what you are right this moment doing.

You're right--it was "BBP" who said that--my mistake.

mike alexander
2008-Jun-25, 06:41 PM
ravens cry wrote:
Actually, I don't have to much against capitilisum...

And I was trying to make a funny that obviously didn't work very well. I think I basically agree with you. The problem with discussing capitalism is that defining it is like training a cat; theoretically possible, but you end up with lots of scratches.

sabianq
2008-Jun-25, 06:55 PM
I predict a war between the Right and the left with O'reilly leading the pack.