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banquo's_bumble_puppy
2008-Oct-27, 10:55 AM
An economist or stockbroker said that generations will talk about the events in the coming 5 - 8 days.....there's also the Presidential thingee....

I think we are in for a very rough week. When will things improve?

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 11:13 AM
Depends where you live. Asia ex-Japan, probably next year. US/UK, probably a bit longer. Western Europe, probably longer still.

Tinaa
2008-Oct-27, 11:37 AM
April

banquo's_bumble_puppy
2008-Oct-27, 11:39 AM
what year?

tofu
2008-Oct-27, 01:15 PM
Western Europe, probably longer still.

Why will Europe take longer? Their economy appears to be in much better shape than that of the US.

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 01:27 PM
Their economy appears to be in much better shape than that of the US.

It is, and it's because of lag. And their lag is due to the fact that, in general, their economies are less flexible. There is also the lag due to export/import contract lengths.

p.s. by 'better shape' I'm assuming that you're taking about direction, and not absolute levels.

HenrikOlsen
2008-Oct-27, 01:37 PM
Actually, we took the hit within hours of the US tanking.
We're in a better shape because our bubble wasn't built quite so much on bad debt.
With the obvious exception of Iceland whose bubble was built partially on heavy investment in the US bubble:(

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 01:43 PM
Er...wait a minute. I think I've got the wrong end of the OP. Are we talking about stockmarkets or economies? Because the former tend to move together (same direction, same time), baring the odd exception...
:confused:

And anyway, the whole of this year has been pretty historic so far. If anything in the next week can possibly overshadow what's already happened, then I think I'll go and hibernate...

Swift
2008-Oct-27, 02:06 PM
An economist or stockbroker said that generations will talk about the events in the coming 5 - 8 days.....there's also the Presidential thingee....

They might be talking about the Presidential election, but the economy, I really doubt it (with the possible exception of future economics professors).

I was watching a segment on CBS's 60 Minutes yesterday, and they were talking about he history of derivatives, the little financial instrument that drove this mess.

Did you know that most states in the US made them illegal after the stock market crash of 1907? What! You never heard about the crash of 1907? But people will be talking about it for generations! Yep, exactly my point.

This too will pass.

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 02:25 PM
I think we are in for a very rough week

I am very excited about the upcoming 2 weeks. The nation/world needs change and we are about to get that, and it couldn't be at a better time.


. When will things improve?

You won't see real improvement until 2011. Things will be looking up and then the process of another US presidential campaign will begin. YAY.

It is going to take years, I repeat years for things to level off and for the world to actually (real money) begin to make gains again. The huge economical mistakes of the more recent past are taking their toll now. You gotta allow for a couple years to recover, provided that well thought out effective changes are made in the next several months. :)

Argos
2008-Oct-27, 02:34 PM
Improve? As a matter of fact, things can hardly get better.

Fazor
2008-Oct-27, 02:42 PM
This too will pass.

Exactly. And, not that I have any particular background to make my opinion special, this is a great opportunity for a young person such as yourself (Banquo).

Right now you can buy into things like mutual funds and get a lot more shares for your dollar than you could even five years ago. That's how it works; you'll likely lose value in the short term. But if you're not counting on that money in the short term, the gains when the economy turns around will be a lot better than they would have been if you invest in a steady economy.

The people that are hurting are the ones who need their investments to have value right now; those who live off of their investment.

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 02:52 PM
I am very excited...

Ooooo...I'm very tempted to start a war, but fortunately this forum is not called Bad Economics and Politics Today..

But I will say this megrfl: I think you have too much faith in politicians. In my experience, making bad economic decisions is an exemplary bipartisan activity. In all countries.

BigDon
2008-Oct-27, 03:19 PM
I tell you what though, I'm getting tired of the drama queens and attention whores saying what they will do if the "correct" candidate isn't elected. This isn't Uganda where the winning political party celebrates an election win by exterminating the losing party. Good God, the fantasies some people indulge in, makes chemtrail believers seem sensible.

Whoever wins is going to be the President of The United States of America. And that's that. I keep having to remind young knuckleheads, sometimes vigorously, that while we might have several distinct clans we are one tribe. And we better freaking act like it or the other tribes will consume us.

Argos
2008-Oct-27, 03:19 PM
In my experience, making bad economic decisions is an exemplary bipartisan activity. In all countries.

In this country´s experience it is a multipartisan activity.

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 05:50 PM
But I will say this megrfl: I think you have too much faith in politicians.

It has nothing to do with faith in politicians, but it does have everything to do with leadership.


In my experience, making bad economic decisions is an exemplary bipartisan activity. In all countries.

Agree, who said it wasn't?

I live on down here in the South Florida. Things are so bad PraedSt, I saw a sign in a yard yesterday, that made me gasp!!, so pardon me, if I am attempting to stay on the positive side (here in America). Unfortunately or fortunately, the American economy has a great impact on the rest of the world and the world upon it.

Leadership is critical.

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 05:53 PM
Improve? As a matter of fact, things can hardly get better.

:confused: Sorry, that statement completely confuses me. I can't make out what you are saying.

Ilya
2008-Oct-27, 05:55 PM
I live on down here in the South Florida. Things are so bad PraedSt, I saw a sign in a yard yesterday, that made me gasp!!

Care to share it with us?

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 05:58 PM
I tell you what though, I'm getting tired of the drama queens and attention whores saying what they will do if the "correct" candidate isn't elected. This isn't Uganda where the winning political party celebrates an election win by exterminating the losing party. Good God, the fantasies some people indulge in, makes chemtrail believers seem sensible.

Whoever wins is going to be the President of The United States of America. And that's that. I keep having to remind young knuckleheads, sometimes vigorously, that while we might have several distinct clans we are one tribe. And we better freaking act like it or the other tribes will consume us.

I was gonna write Amen and then thought better of it, but the truth is it just means I am in agreement.

So....Amen.

Nicolas
2008-Oct-27, 06:03 PM
You won't see real improvement until 2011.

"all that ends well, is well" I hear the 2012 crowd shouting in the back of the room...

Given that I've got a house (incl mortgage, of course) and no money, as long as I keep my job, I'm quite safe.

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 06:09 PM
Care to share it with us?

check your pm.

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 06:13 PM
Ooooo...I'm very tempted to start a war, but fortunately this forum is not called Bad Economics and Politics Today..

But I will say this megrfl: I think you have too much faith in politicians. In my experience, making bad economic decisions is an exemplary bipartisan activity. In all countries.

Nice edit, but it doesn't hold, as you can see.

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 06:18 PM
Edit? I mucked up my posting! Me---->:doh:

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 06:21 PM
This is what I wanted to post:

It has nothing to do with faith in politicians, but it does have everything to do with leadership...
Ooooo...I'm very tempted to start a war, but fortunately this forum is not called Bad Economics and Politics Today..

But I will say this megrfl: I think you have too much faith in leadership. In my experience, making bad economic decisions is an exemplary bipartisan activity. In all countries.

Argos
2008-Oct-27, 06:21 PM
:confused: Sorry, that statement completely confuses me. I can't make out what you are saying.

I was only kidding. :)

PraedSt
2008-Oct-27, 06:22 PM
But I've kind of gone and ruined it now :doh:

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 06:31 PM
But I've kind of gone and ruined it now :doh:

Yep. :)

megrfl
2008-Oct-27, 06:33 PM
I was only kidding. :)

Sorry, sometimes I literally lose my sense of humor. :)

Doodler
2008-Oct-27, 06:40 PM
Whoever wins is going to be the President of The United States of America. And that's that. I keep having to remind young knuckleheads, sometimes vigorously, that while we might have several distinct clans we are one tribe. And we better freaking act like it or the other tribes will consume us.


Mark this day on the calendar.


"Doodler says, 'Amen'."

Fazor
2008-Oct-27, 07:00 PM
Mark this day on the calendar.
"Doodler says, 'Amen'."

No wonder my feet are cold; hell must be freezing over. :)

Click Ticker
2008-Oct-27, 07:00 PM
I was only kidding. :)

And here I was going to agree with you. In the grand scheme of things by most historical measures, western civilization at its worst still has it pretty easy compared to the vast majority of the world and the vast majority of recorded history.

sarongsong
2008-Oct-27, 07:14 PM
...Whoever wins is going to be the President of The United States...Ha! Didn't happen in 2000 or 2004; why should it happen in 2008?

Doodler
2008-Oct-27, 07:29 PM
Ha! Didn't happen in 2000 or 2004; why should it happen in 2008?
:rolleyes:

Argos
2008-Oct-27, 07:41 PM
And here I was going to agree with you. In the grand scheme of things by most historical measures, western civilization at its worst still has it pretty easy compared to the vast majority of the world and the vast majority of recorded history.

Well, I just can agree. The foundations are still there [refer to "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations"].

Tinaa
2008-Oct-27, 11:37 PM
It has nothing to do with faith in politicians, but it does have everything to do with leadership.

Agree, who said it wasn't?

[snip]

Leadership is critical.

Whatever. The House holds the purse strings and the president cannot introduce legislation. The president can try to lead all he wants but Congress should do what the people want.

megrfl
2008-Oct-28, 01:26 AM
Whatever.

What? Whatever? That leadership holds no value?


The president can try to lead all he wants but Congress should do what the people want.

Ya, and that would be nice if it were true, but if we look closely at the 700 billion dollar bail out, most of us would see that that is not so.

I'm sure that a third or more of the people haven't a clue who is representing them, and in turn; i'm sure that the congress persons are fully aware of this fact. There is no accountability, and even when there is; what good does it do?

Leadership is critical in that, it is beyond the time that there is true bipartisanship and with the right leader it actually could be achieved. This would be of the people and for the people, and it's about time.

Tinaa
2008-Oct-28, 11:55 AM
I agree. Most people won't even get out to vote. I've yet to see a politician that I could trust.

They are all the same! I'm a bit cynical perhaps, but I've been around long enough to know that it is true.

PraedSt
2008-Oct-28, 12:21 PM
Well, I just can agree. The foundations are still there [refer to "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations"].

How are things in Brazil at the moment Argos? Inflation, employment, and the like? I could look them up of course, but I'm feeling lazy...

Argos
2008-Oct-28, 01:03 PM
Hi Praed.

Well, the bulk of the crisis haven´t showed up here as of yet. We´re in the best moment since 1973. Until last month the GDP was growing about 6% a year, which is a spectacular figure, considering that Brazil is a mature industrial economy. Projections for 2009 are not so bright. They talk of 3,6%. We´re not supposed to suffer from the retraction of exports like other markets, because the country historically relies on the big internal market. Banks are strong, and there´s no liquidity problem. Credits are sound. Unemployment is around 8% [there is a huge welfare program by the federal government that provides a safety net for the poorer, which is the basis of the current president´s popularity]. Inflation is strictly under control [the index for the basic items - dubbed "Basic Basket" down here - is nearly zero]

There´s naturallly a psychological effect with the flow of international bad news and the main stock exchange in Brazil [the BOVESPA] is getting moderately hit [some stocks have lost 30% of their value]. The currency is suffering a bit too [it were in a splendid position two months ago, when one Dollar bought only 1.60 Reals]. Now the rate is 1:2.20 [will stabilize at 1.80 within some months if nothing really catastrophic happens].

Brazil is deemed one of the less vulnerable countries in this turmoil. It is a result of sound orthodox policies carried out by successive governments in the last 15 years. The outlook is fine, provided that people remain calm.

PraedSt
2008-Oct-28, 01:40 PM
Thanks Argos. Just what I was looking for. I was a bit worried, with agri and commodity prices falling so sharply; glad you're doing ok!
One follow up, just because this seems really bizarre: inflation 0%?! You sure? :)

Off topic: Title decider in SP. 5 days to go. You lucky man! ;)

Argos
2008-Oct-28, 01:55 PM
Thanks Argos. Just what I was looking for. I was a bit worried, with agri and commodity prices falling so sharply; glad you're doing ok!

Thanks, I hope the situation remains under control. Actually, commodities make up only 35% of Brazilian exports.



One follow up, just because this seems really bizarre: inflation 0%?! You sure? :)


For basic living items, yes. The yearly Consumer Price Index is about 4%. Falling oil prices are contributing to an even sharper drop.


Off topic: Title decider in SP. 5 days to go. You lucky man! ;)

Oh, that´s a much awaited occasion for an auto sports fan like me. ;) Go Massa!

Click Ticker
2008-Oct-28, 01:55 PM
Argos,

Your post is what I mean when referring to the grand scheme of things. You indicate that unemployment around 8% is a good thing. Best since 1973 in fact. In the U.S. our absolute worst states have unemployment of just over 8% with a national average still in the 6% range, I believe. Yet we think we're in another great depression.

Are things great right now? No. Can they get bad? Yes. Are they anywhere near depression levels? Not even in the same ballpark.

Argos
2008-Oct-28, 02:03 PM
Argos,

Your post is what I mean when referring to the grand scheme of things. You indicate that unemployment around 8% is a good thing. Best since 1973 in fact. In the U.S. our absolute worst states have unemployment of just over 8% with a national average still in the 6% range, I believe. Yet we think we're in another great depression.

Yes. I think Brazil is more like Europe in this respect. Europe is used to 2-digit unemployment rates [They talk of 11% in Spain right now]. I still remember when the rates here were up to 20%. So I have nothing to complain about. :)


Are things great right now? No. Can they get bad? Yes. Are they anywhere near depression levels? Not even in the same ballpark.

Yeah, I agree. :)

farmerjumperdon
2008-Oct-28, 02:19 PM
Right now you can buy into things like mutual funds and get a lot more shares for your dollar than you could even five years ago. That's how it works; you'll likely lose value in the short term. But if you're not counting on that money in the short term, the gains when the economy turns around will be a lot better than they would have been if you invest in a steady economy.

The people that are hurting are the ones who need their investments to have value right now; those who live off of their investment.

That is a big right-on-the-money bingo.

Buy now, all you can. Stay away from entertainment, hospitality, retail, financial, transportation, heavy manufacturing and the like. Go big in high tech, biomed, medtech, software, hardware, wireless, energy services, and the like. You can buy into very specific funds that hold stock in maybe 30 to 40 companies (or even less) all in the same industry. You are basically hitching onto an industry, not a specific company in that industry.

I use Fidelity. As an example my software fund has stock from 44 companies, with the top ten (Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Cognizant, VISA, Adobe, MC, Symantec, Quest & Nintendo) accounting for 65% of the action. Regardless of who buys who or who pushes who out of business, that fund is going to explode when the economy rebounds. Unless software becomes obsolete overnight I should become rich beyond my wildest dreams. (OK, just a bit of hyperbole).

Here comes the disclaimer: Even though this is working very well for me; your results may vary. Consult a professional.

mugaliens
2008-Oct-28, 06:57 PM
I'm sure that a third or more of the people haven't a clue who is representing them, and in turn; i'm sure that the congress persons are fully aware of this fact. There is no accountability, and even when there is; what good does it do?

Back when the landed gentry were the only ones allowed to vote, they took great care in ensuring that only those who would help keep them in the gentry realm would make it into office. Most thought they were doing society a favor, as they often employed dozens, if not hundreds, and felt their concerns provided for a more stable society where those who were willing to work hard would do well.


Leadership is critical in that, it is beyond the time that there is true bipartisanship and with the right leader it actually could be achieved. This would be of the people and for the people, and it's about time.

We'll first have to find the candidate that everyone loves.

Salty
2008-Oct-30, 01:12 AM
Er...wait a minute. I think I've got the wrong end of the OP. Are we talking about stockmarkets or economies? Because the former tend to move together (same direction, same time), baring the odd exception...
:confused:

And anyway, the whole of this year has been pretty historic so far. If anything in the next week can possibly overshadow what's already happened, then I think I'll go and hibernate...

I've heard two different sources say the worse is yet to come.

Salty
2008-Oct-30, 01:16 AM
I tell you what though, I'm getting tired of the drama queens and attention whores saying what they will do if the "correct" candidate isn't elected. This isn't Uganda where the winning political party celebrates an election win by exterminating the losing party. Good God, the fantasies some people indulge in, makes chemtrail believers seem sensible.

Whoever wins is going to be the President of The United States of America. And that's that. I keep having to remind young knuckleheads, sometimes vigorously, that while we might have several distinct clans we are one tribe. And we better freaking act like it or the other tribes will consume us.

We do need to pull it all together. Maybe we should seriously start another space race.

I voted for a lesser evil. I'm so tired, of voting for the lesser of two evils.

Salty
2008-Oct-30, 01:29 AM
An economist or stockbroker said that generations will talk about the events in the coming 5 - 8 days.....there's also the Presidential thingee....

I think we are in for a very rough week. When will things improve?

Well, I seldom hear the Great Depression brought up. So, why would this bubble bursting bash be talked about, for generations.

Now, our presidential race itself makes history. Whichever is elected, they make history which will be talked about for a long time.

megrfl
2008-Oct-30, 01:39 AM
We'll first have to find the candidate that everyone loves.

Here is my prediction. :) Come Tuesday evening.... ah, never mind. :silenced:

PraedSt
2008-Oct-30, 01:55 AM
I've heard two different sources say the worse is yet to come.

Oh it probably is, just might not this week. At least I hope not, I could do with a few days break. :)

HenrikOlsen
2008-Oct-30, 12:57 PM
Here is my prediction. :) Come Tuesday evening.... ah, never mind. :silenced:

Here's mine: Come Tuesday evening the litigation will start.

Click Ticker
2008-Oct-30, 01:16 PM
An economist or stockbroker said that generations will talk about the events in the coming 5 - 8 days.....there's also the Presidential thingee....

I think we are in for a very rough week. When will things improve?

I guess the bottom line on statements like this is that if it is a terrible 5 - 8 days, then some unknown person makes their name a nationally recognized item and gets a lucrative book deal. If nothing happens, then everyone who didn't know who that person was before still doesn't know who that person is now and it goes away.

megrfl
2008-Oct-30, 01:37 PM
Here's mine: Come Tuesday evening the litigation will start.

Good grief, Charlie Brown!

:sick: We need a smilie that vomits pea soup.

BigDon
2008-Oct-30, 02:45 PM
Question: Do you guys think there will be campaign finance reform after this election? Using anonomous pre-paid credit cards over the 'net to bypass campaign funding laws should be outlawed.

SeanF
2008-Oct-30, 04:05 PM
Question: Do you guys think there will be campaign finance reform after this election? Using anonomous pre-paid credit cards over the 'net to bypass campaign funding laws should be outlawed.
Anonymous campaign donations already are outlawed.

BigDon
2008-Oct-30, 04:11 PM
Technology increased faster than the law chief

BigDon
2008-Oct-30, 04:13 PM
Should have been more to that.

Unless it's 50 dollar or less

SeanF
2008-Oct-30, 04:16 PM
Technology increased faster than the law chief
No, it didn't, Don. Doing it with the new technology is just as illegal as doing it with the old technology, and the old law still applies.

There's a lot that could, and should, be done about the issue to which we're referring (yeah, we both know what it is :) ). To start with, certain, shall we say, "entities" ought to be talking about it.

But another law would be not only unnecessary, but irrelevent. The parties involved simply don't care.

SeanF
2008-Oct-30, 04:52 PM
Should have been more to that.

Unless it's 50 dollar or less
Oh, that I wasn't aware of. Maybe there would be a reason for an additional law. :)

But, rest assured, I share your frustration over what's happening.

mahesh
2008-Oct-30, 09:50 PM
Whichever way it crumbles, cookie-wise, come Tuesday, we are living through 'History in the making'.
I am more aware of it now, than I was forty-five or even forty years ago!

sarongsong
2008-Oct-30, 10:01 PM
Here's mine: Come Tuesday evening the litigation will start.Oh, they're already underway:
10/24/2008 - 10/25/08
We all know what voting is. But what exactly should count as a vote?
That's the question at the heart of a lawsuit filed against Secretary of State Mary Herrera by the New Mexico League of Women Voters...
SantaFeNewMexican (http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Local%20News/Vote-2008-Lawsuit-challenges-N-M--ballot-count-rules)
Others (http://www.google.com/search?client=opera&rls=en&q=2008+voting+lawsuit&sourceid=opera&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8)

BigDon
2008-Oct-30, 10:31 PM
Whichever way it crumbles, cookie-wise, come Tuesday, we are living through 'History in the making'.
I am more aware of it now, than I was forty-five or even forty years ago!

Which is surprising because I thought you were about 30.

megrfl
2008-Oct-31, 02:26 PM
Which is surprising because I thought you were about 30.

Ya, I thought even younger, but don't be offended Mahesh. I am not implying ignorance; it is your writing style and kindness. It is very endearing.
I challenge you to say something mean. :)

sarongsong
2009-Jun-21, 07:15 AM
They might be talking about the Presidential election, but the economy...Did you know that most states in the US made them [derivatives] illegal after the stock market crash of 1907? What! You never heard about the crash of 1907?...Good call, Swift! http://www.bautforum.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

...the 1907 Bankers' Panic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907), was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 50% from its peak the previous year. Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy...
- wiki

mahesh
2009-Jun-21, 10:43 AM
.....
I challenge you to say something mean. :)

....Boo! :surprised

NosePicker
2009-Jun-22, 10:32 AM
I sit here drinking purified water out of one of two taps thinking that past generations didn't have that. Most of us, unless we live in tent cities have dozens of electronic 'servants' to do our bidding. Food poisoning is pretty oddball, odd enough to note anyway. Human rights is something we talk about. Americans openly make fun of our leaders. Our leaders put up with things their ancestors would cringe at.