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jlhredshift
2009-Jan-27, 03:32 PM
Link to AVO (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php)

2009-01-26 13:02:21 - Status Report

Snip from report:


The current activity at Redoubt could be precursory to an eruption, perhaps within days. A further increase in seismicity is expected to accompany an eruption. Staff are currently monitoring the volcano 24 hours a day.

dgavin
2009-Jan-27, 07:54 PM
Link to AVO (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php)

2009-01-26 13:02:21 - Status Report

Snip from report:

Been watching this one! So far has all the precursor signatures present that might signal an eruption.

Seismic activity has been slowing down a little bit yesterday/today, so it mightbe building up backpressure at this point.

jlhredshift
2009-Jan-27, 08:09 PM
Been watching this one! So far has all the precursor signatures present that might signal an eruption.

Seismic activity has been slowing down a little bit yesterday/today, so it mightbe building up backpressure at this point.

Live web cam of Redoubt (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/webcam.php?cam=Redoubt%20-%20CI)

Wow, clouds moved in.

dgavin
2009-Jan-28, 03:29 AM
Wow, looks like a rather serious Harmonic tremor at Redoubt about three hours ago. If it keeps this up may need its own thread here.

dgavin
2009-Jan-29, 01:38 AM
That siesmograph reading was more then just a simple harmoinc tremor. Status report today from USGS mentioned a huge mud slide, and a new collapse hole in the Redoubt sumit's caldera.

Which would explain the intesity of the reading, as it was recording the mudslide happing on the surface.

*Edit to add*

My guess for a probability of eruption in next 3 weeks, is 70%

Mods? Should the posts be slipt off into a Redoubt Volcano thread?

Swift
2009-Jan-29, 03:57 AM
Mods? Should the posts be slipt off into a Redoubt Volcano thread?
I went ahead and split off the posts into a new thread. A couple of posts that touched on several topics: Redoubt, Yellowstone, earthquakes, etc., I left in the Earthquake thread

Swift
2009-Jan-29, 05:50 PM
CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/01/29/alaska.volcano/index.html) has picked up the story about Redoubt

volcano in south-central Alaska could erupt within days or weeks, authorities said.

"The level of seismic activity" has "increased markedly" in recent days at Mount Redoubt, a 10,197-foot peak about 100 miles southwest of Anchorage, the state's most populous city, according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

"We don't have a crystal ball," said Peter Cervelli, a research geophysicist with the observatory. But "we expect based on the past behavior of this volcano that this activity is going to culminate in an eruption."

One Skunk Todd
2009-Jan-29, 08:42 PM
Bah. No good views on either cam. :(

dgavin
2009-Jan-30, 08:05 PM
USGS AVO site is down due to too much traffic at thier website. they also lost one of the older siemographs, and the new one is not totaly online yet.

Information statement for today:


Alaska Volcano Observatory
Information Statement
Friday, January 30, 2009 7:16 AM AKST (1616 UTC)


Redoubt Volcano
6029'7" N 15244'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues, though no eruption has yet occurred. Seismicity levels have risen within the last 8 hours. Redoubt remains at Aviation Color Code ORANGE and Volcano Alert Level WATCH.

AVO's website has been overwhelmed with traffic this morning because of extensive national news coverage. A backup, low-bandwidth webserver is operating with limited information.

Staff are currently monitoring the volcano 24 hours a day. We will issue further information as it becomes available.

Increasing probability of eruption in next 3 weeks, to 82%

dgavin
2009-Jan-30, 08:56 PM
Large Earthquake ongoing now at Redoubt on it's siesmograph data feeds. No magnitude information for it yet (my viewer doesn't have the calulation stuff to it).

It' not even on the USA EQ center maps yet.

geonuc
2009-Jan-30, 09:40 PM
I went ahead and split off the posts into a new thread. A couple of posts that touched on several topics: Redoubt, Yellowstone, earthquakes, etc., I left in the Earthquake thread
Nicely done, Swift. :)

geonuc
2009-Jan-30, 09:44 PM
I all of a sudden want to go to Alaska.

mugaliens
2009-Jan-30, 09:52 PM
Death wish?

geonuc
2009-Jan-30, 09:54 PM
I just really like volcanoes. :(

Swift
2009-Jan-30, 10:02 PM
I just really like volcanoes. :(
Hey, no :( . I really like volcanoes too. I'd love to go watch.

Amber Robot
2009-Jan-30, 10:54 PM
Here's a photo I took in Alaska back in June 2002. I think Redoubt is the mountain in the background.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v256/hd37903/im10.jpg

dgavin
2009-Jan-31, 01:52 AM
USGS Twitter Brief


2009-01-30 14:35:54 (Alaskan Time)
Intense seismicity continues at Redoubt this afternoon. Clear webcam views, satellite, and radar data from earlier today indicate that the volcano has not yet erupted.

Tucson_Tim
2009-Jan-31, 01:55 AM
I just really like volcanoes. :(

Me too. If I could do it over again, it would be volcanology for me! :)

dgavin
2009-Jan-31, 02:38 AM
Another update from USGS just arrived.


2009-01-30 16:56:54
Seismicity has declined greatly over the past 90 minutes, although activity is still well above normal background levels.

Clouds continue to obscure the webcam view, and the sun will be setting soon. AVO continues to observe potential activity with satellite and radar data.

An AVO observation flight this afternoon reported no sign of ash emission, but observed significant steaming from a new melt depression at the mouth of the summit crater near the vent area of the 1989-90 eruption.


Increasing my guess on probability of eruption in next 3 weeks, to 90%. Proability in next 48 hours...25%

*edit to add*

I may not be too far off on my guesses here. USGS/AVO has announced that staff will be monitoring Redoubt 24/7.

geonuc
2009-Jan-31, 12:40 PM
Here's a photo I took in Alaska back in June 2002. I think Redoubt is the mountain in the background.


Nice. You probably have some good shots of Augustine as well, I suspect.

flynjack1
2009-Jan-31, 04:07 PM
Has anyone heard what scale of eruption is anticipated? VE-?

dgavin
2009-Jan-31, 06:00 PM
Redoubt is basicaly continually active, with long periods of quietness (10 to 30 years) between outbursts.

I have not heard any official expectation of the expected VE. My guess would be around a 3-4. Basically an ash eruption, and less then St. Helens in force.

dgavin
2009-Jan-31, 06:46 PM
A cool pic from Redoubt's new web cam.

dgavin
2009-Jan-31, 10:50 PM
Redoubt sent up a steam plume reaching 10,000ft height today. It's settled down alread, but a small plume remains in the webcam view (Redoubt HUT camera).

mugaliens
2009-Jan-31, 11:10 PM
I just really like volcanoes. :(

Then why the frown? Smile! :)

George
2009-Feb-01, 03:58 AM
Here (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/volcimage.php?volcname=Redoubt) are the latest images of Mt. Redoubt.

Swift
2009-Feb-02, 05:54 PM
And here's the latest from the AVO

2009-02-01 18:11:00
Seismic unrest continues at Redoubt. Seismic activity is still well above normal background levels and is holding steady. The volcano has not erupted.

dgavin
2009-Feb-02, 08:14 PM
And more Latest from AVO


2009-02-02 11:02:09

Elevated seismic activity continues and we have been detecting small repeating earthquakes over the past several hours.

The volcano has not erupted and is still in a very restless state.

AVO continues to observe potential activity with seismic, satellite web camera and radar data.

The Aviation Color Code remains at ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level remains at WATCH.

Swift
2009-Feb-03, 06:13 PM
From the AVO

2009-02-03 08:08:19

Redoubt Volcano continues to be restless. Seismic activity continues at an elevated level and is well above background levels. The volcano has not erupted.

A gas/observation overflight yesterday reported continued changes in the summit glaciers indicative of heating of the summit area. Photos from both the overflight and the hut webcam showed a small vapor plume at the summit. The web camera is now dark as our long winter night continues.

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-05, 02:48 PM
Current status:


2009-02-05 04:05:11

Unrest continues at Redoubt Volcano. Seismic activity is at an elevated but relatively stable level.

The volcano has not erupted.

The web camera is currently dark.

So my question is, is the current seismic activity magma, subduction, or isostatic related activity?

dgavin
2009-Feb-05, 03:25 PM
Magmatic in nature.

There has been occasional steam emissions, short duration Harmonic Tremors, elevated CO2 and SO2 levels, snow melt off at the sumit due to ground heating.

However there hasn't been the long duration harmonic tremors or intense swarms that usually precede an eruption by a few days or weeks.

It's still likely to erupt soon, although the probobility is falling off a bit. It appears to be entering a steam emiting period of activity, and might stabalize there for a while.

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-05, 03:35 PM
Magmatic in nature.

There has been occasional steam emissions, short duration Harmonic Tremors, elevated CO2 and SO2 levels, snow melt off at the sumit due to ground heating.

However there hasn't been the long duration harmonic tremors or intense swarms that usually precede an eruption by a few days or weeks.

It's still likely to erupt soon, although the probobility is falling off a bit. It appears to be entering a steam emiting period of activity, and might stabalize there for a while.

As time goes by wouldn't the magmas rheidity decrease due to cooling?

dgavin
2009-Feb-05, 07:36 PM
As time goes by wouldn't the magmas rheidity decrease due to cooling?

Ridgitiy? Yes, there are many factors involved in this though, such as superheated steam releases from deep magma pools heating the mountain's chimney/vent. Also, it takes a while for a magma pocket inside a mountain's chimney/vent to cool off. Earth (rock and dirt) is a very good insulator.

As the summit of Redoubt is getting warmer and warmer, it means there is likely magma close to entering the mountain itself, even though this heating at the sumit is currently driven by the steam/gas emissions curretnly.

dgavin
2009-Feb-06, 02:47 AM
Latest from USGS/AVO


2009-02-05 17:21:56

A burst of volcanic tremor occurred just after 3:00 PM this afternoon lasting for about 30 minutes and is continuing at a sustained but lower level. This did not result in any eruptive activity and no ash emission has occurred.

AVO is monitoring and evaluating the situation closely.

Redoubt is still at aviation color code ORANGE and volcano alert level WATCH

dgavin
2009-Feb-06, 01:52 PM
Well there was a second burst of Volcanic Tremors, and now there is a low level almost continuous Harmonic Tremor signature on the seismographs.

This is a good indicator of magma on the move under the mountain. I haven't been able to locate any recent deformation data though.

dgavin
2009-Feb-06, 08:33 PM
I Couldn't find any Deformation data at all, so I built my own from the images archive.

I took an image from the 27th, converted it to an Edgemaping (Basicaly this highlights the outline of the mountain onto a white background. (Using a Blue Color)

Did the same with todays image, giving it a Red color.

Then alligned and mergered the two together. There is a hint that the right side of the mountain(from perspective of Camera) is buldging very sligtly. I'll try and extrapolate an amount for this buldging tonight.

Swift
2009-Feb-06, 08:37 PM
I Couldn't find any Deformation data at all, so I built my own from the images archive.

You win the alpha-geek of the day award. :clap:

dgavin
2009-Feb-07, 02:52 AM
I got a clearer image this evening, and redid the image overlay.

Then I calculated the relative feet per pixels in each image by checking topographical data. Once i had that i overlay ed the images again and got the pixel count for the swelling.

Over all since Jan 27th, Redoubt has swollen about 12.2 meters on the right side of the summit peak, and about 5 Meters on the left side summit peak. There is some pixel difference going down the mountain, which seem to decrease from the top towards the base, that I put at from 3 meters to less the 1 meter.

This is a very ROUGH method of figuring out deformation. Accounting for errors because of this, I would say it's more like 4 Meters of swelling, that is gradually decreasing down toward the base. It does indicate the magma seems to likely be pooling inside the mountain, instead of below its base.

Van Rijn
2009-Feb-07, 05:39 AM
You win the alpha-geek of the day award. :clap:

Yup, pretty impressive. Interesting stuff, dgavin.

dgavin
2009-Feb-07, 06:38 AM
Yup, pretty impressive. Interesting stuff, dgavin.

I got tired of waiting for data, so although this is a very rough way to do it, i made my own data.

The AVO is not as as good as the CVO is about releasing data, but then it is an Educational hosted Observatory, so they need the time to go over thier results and what not, as they have grades dependant upon them.

Redoubt is now in a constant Harmonic tremor stage, which is a good indication an eruptions is going to happen. Days to a few weeks maybe at this point, probably closer to days if this continuous harmonic tremor continues as it has been.

geonuc
2009-Feb-07, 11:27 AM
I Couldn't find any Deformation data at all, so I built my own from the images archive.

I took an image from the 27th, converted it to an Edgemaping (Basicaly this highlights the outline of the mountain onto a white background. (Using a Blue Color)

Did the same with todays image, giving it a Red color.

Then alligned and mergered the two together. There is a hint that the right side of the mountain(from perspective of Camera) is buldging very sligtly. I'll try and extrapolate an amount for this buldging tonight.
That thumbnail shows up kinda fuzzy on my computer. Am I missing something?

dgavin
2009-Feb-07, 12:26 PM
Yes sort of, there are places where the red and blue outlines of the mountain match perfectly, and other towards the summit where the red outline is a few pixels above the blue outline, indicating some swelling. had to see outside of a paint application where you can zoom in on the pixels though

geonuc
2009-Feb-07, 12:52 PM
Over all since Jan 27th, Redoubt has swollen about 12.2 meters on the right side of the summit peak, and about 5 Meters on the left side summit peak.
12 meters! :eek:

dgavin
2009-Feb-07, 02:05 PM
12 meters! :eek:

That would be the upper limit. Accounting for the rudness of this method, it's probably something more like 4 meters

dgavin
2009-Feb-07, 07:06 PM
USGS/AVO is(maybe) sending a gas monitoring crew up the mountain today, to get some new readings on the emissions.

However the cam this morning shows it's releasing steam again, so the crew might not brave it.

Swift
2009-Feb-08, 05:55 PM
The latest from the AVO

2009-02-08 07:11:13

Unrest is continuing at Redoubt volcano. The seismicity is dominated by nearly continuous volcanic tremor similar to that reported for the last several days

dgavin
2009-Feb-09, 02:55 PM
Not much new to report this morning either.

The USGS crew got thier gas measurements, but the data is still being processed, so no information yet.

They also observed the steam emissions coming from the 1990 dome area, as well as melt water coming from the drift glacier.

The almost constant Volcanic Tremors have taken on a more variable nature, and there has been a slight increase in the number of swarm quakes over the last few days.

One Skunk Todd
2009-Feb-09, 06:06 PM
Seems like clear weather today. I've got both cams tuned in. :)

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/webcam.php?cam=redoubt%20-%20hut
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/webcam.php?cam=redoubt%20-%20ci

One Skunk Todd
2009-Feb-09, 08:45 PM
I can't tell if this is smoke or just a cloud passing between the camera and the volcano. I think it might have chuffed a little though.

Swift
2009-Feb-09, 08:59 PM
This webcam (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/webcam.php?cam=redoubt%20-%20hut) seems to be showing steam from the summit.

dgavin
2009-Feb-09, 09:31 PM
Yes, it's been blowing off some steam since friday. It's a very unhappy volcano:lol:

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-09, 09:57 PM
Yes, it's been blowing off some steam since friday. It's a very unhappy volcano:lol:

I just hope those people at the base of the volcano where the lights are have a boat with a big motor.

Swift
2009-Feb-09, 10:00 PM
Yes, it's been blowing off some steam since friday. It's a very unhappy volcano:lol:
Its just lucky our Alaskan moderator doesn't ban it for blowing off steam. ;)

dgavin
2009-Feb-11, 08:24 PM
Not much has changed, the steam emissions have reduced somewhat but the tremors continue, along with intermittent quakes.

The webcams are obscured by weather today.

Buttercup
2009-Feb-11, 08:42 PM
Waiting for Mt. Redoubt to finally "go" is getting about as tedious as awaiting the next batch of sunspots. :-\ It just ain't happening...

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-11, 10:16 PM
Waiting for Mt. Redoubt to finally "go" is getting about as tedious as awaiting the next batch of sunspots. :-\ It just ain't happening...

Geological time scale


Human time scale

Buttercup
2009-Feb-11, 10:21 PM
To heck with the geological time scale! Lol...

PetersCreek
2009-Feb-11, 10:32 PM
Its just lucky our Alaskan moderator doesn't ban it for blowing off steam. ;)

Patience. I'm still looking for that button.

Next time I'm up in the cab, I need to give Redoubt a look-see.

geonuc
2009-Feb-12, 09:30 AM
To heck with the geological time scale! Lol...
Yeah, really. I think we need to get these silly volcanoes onto our schedule. :)

George
2009-Feb-13, 09:50 PM
Yes, people are beginning to doubt, but soon they will have redoubt! ;)

slang
2009-Feb-13, 10:01 PM
Are you saying doubt is mounting? (*groan*)

George
2009-Feb-13, 10:33 PM
:) or remounting.

dgavin
2009-Feb-15, 08:51 PM
Still not much has changed.

Looks like there was an Avalanche signature picked up on the seismographs today. Other then that the tremors and small Earthquakes (EQ's) are continuing, along with elevated gas emissions of CO2 and SO2.

From what USGS is saying there is two magma pools showing deep EQ's one at 40km depth, and another at 2km depth. (This is similar to St. Helen's, another very cyclic volcano that also has two magma pools. There might be some relationship to the number of magma pools under a volcano, and it's cycles of activity)

So it looks like I was wrong in my assessment of deformation. But that was a crude way to see if there was any.

The cam's are obscured today by weather, but on the AVO website they have new pictures from Feb 7th fly by, that show one of the steam out-gassings.

USGS is also saying that although it could be months before it might erupt, that they expect that when it does, it might only give a hour or so warning of precursor events. So they are continuing a 24/7 staffing to monitor Redoubt.

dgavin
2009-Feb-17, 07:45 PM
Redoubt has had some Elevated levels of Siesmicity since yesterday morning, still no eruption however.

The webcam's are one again obscured by weather, and some of the siesmographs are expericing small occasional data drops outs

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-17, 09:51 PM
Redoubt has had some Elevated levels of Siesmicity since yesterday morning, still no eruption however.

The webcam's are one again obscured by weather, and some of the siesmographs are expericing small occasional data drops outs

Probably not a good day to walk up the volcano.

Weather (http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/alaskaus/alaskasatellite_large.html?clip=undefined&region=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined)

dgavin
2009-Feb-19, 05:51 AM
Some minor changes in our doubting Redoubt.

It had a rather strong harmonic tremor today, that has since be followed by an elevated number and intensity of a swarm of quakes.

Other then that, it's still defying the predictions of erupting within weeks.

I have captured a few cool pictures from the web-cam for viewing.

(Images used by USGS/AVO public usage rights)

rommel543
2009-Feb-19, 08:33 PM
Looking at the pictures, it looks like there is less snow on the peak on the 18th then there was on the 17th. I don't know if it's the pictures, but there is more rock showing.

rommel543
2009-Feb-19, 08:37 PM
Not much showing on the USSC site.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/AK2/60.62.-154.-150.php

Swift
2009-Feb-19, 09:05 PM
Hi rommel543, welcome to BAUT.

rommel543
2009-Feb-19, 09:06 PM
Ty :)

dgavin
2009-Feb-20, 01:44 AM
Looking at the pictures, it looks like there is less snow on the peak on the 18th then there was on the 17th. I don't know if it's the pictures, but there is more rock showing.

Welcome to BAUT!

Yes, most of the snow loss is probably due to wind. But at the summit it is possible the some was lost to melting.

Also over all it does look like it's calmed down again today. I don't even think the mountain knows what it's going to do next :lol:

That USUS link shows quakes, but not the harmonic tremors. If you go to the USGS/AVO web site (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/) you can also look for the tremor activity on the webicorders themselves.

dgavin
2009-Feb-23, 05:08 AM
AVO made a visit to Redoubt again


USGS/AVO 2009-02-22 18:05:32

AVO personnel visited the volcano today and installed a broadband seismic instrument to the west of the volcano. They made observations including the apparent enlargement of the melt pit at approximately 6000'. Volcanic tremor with variable amplitudes and intermittent discrete earthquakes continue.

dgavin
2009-Feb-25, 02:57 AM
Still no change in the tremors and intermittent quakes. Redoubt still hasn't made up it's mind, so is living up to it's name.

However did catch some interesting events on the web-cams today. One of them a that looks like small steam-like puff. This is likely NOT a steam eruption, but a condensation cloud that formed because of the heating at the summit of Redoubt.

Other one is just a too-cool-for-words, dusk shot.

(Images used by USGS/AVO public usage rights)

jj_0001
2009-Feb-25, 10:37 AM
Boy, this one tries the patience, doesn't it?

Redoubt you gotta let me know
Will you sit or will you blow
Why do you wait for so much time
So will you blow up or just whine
Redoubt you gotta let me know
Will you sit or will you blow?

:)

Sorry. Yes, I know how slow geological processes can be :)

dgavin
2009-Feb-25, 02:57 PM
Sorry. Yes, I know how slow geological processes can be :)

About that statement, there can be Nodoubt. :lol:

PetersCreek
2009-Feb-25, 05:22 PM
Boy, this one tries the patience, doesn't it?

Pardon me if I don't share your eagerness for its eruption. I'd just as soon not use my preparedness kit. :whistle::lol:

dgavin
2009-Feb-26, 03:31 AM
At around 3:30pm (AST) today and lasting for an hour, a major Tremor event occured at Redoubt that peaked high enough in magnitude that it was picked up at Mt. Spurr seismograph stations (thats around a magnitude 2.3 tremor at it's peak).

It has still -not- erupted, however this sort of high amplitude tremor puts the probibilty up to 100% that it will, eventually, erupt. Just no tellign how long it will take to get there.

jj_0001
2009-Feb-26, 05:34 AM
Pardon me if I don't share your eagerness for its eruption. I'd just as soon not use my preparedness kit. :whistle::lol:


Yeah. This I can certainly understand. You near it, then? Is that the "Peters Creek" in Anchorage?

Or the one in the middle of almost nowhere about 20 miles west of Trapper's Creek?

PetersCreek
2009-Feb-26, 06:50 AM
Yeah. This I can certainly understand. You near it, then? Is that the "Peters Creek" in Anchorage?

Or the one in the middle of almost nowhere about 20 miles west of Trapper's Creek?

I'm in the Peters Creek (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Peters+Creek+AK&sll=61.406826,-149.461784&sspn=0.056523,0.22316&ie=UTF8&ll=61.401649,-149.460068&spn=0.10912,0.44632&z=12&iwloc=addr) about 22 miles northeast of downtown Anchorage but still within the Municipality of Anchorage. Redoubt is about 99 miles from my office, the air traffic control tower at Anchorage International Airport. It's clearly visible from the cab on a nice day.

I've been keeping my eye on the wind charts and most days, at least one of the tracks (especially 20-40K feet) always seems to be sitting right on top of Anchorage. Later this week looks better for us, though...but worse for the Kenai.

jj_0001
2009-Feb-26, 08:29 AM
I'm in the Peters Creek (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Peters+Creek+AK&sll=61.406826,-149.461784&sspn=0.056523,0.22316&ie=UTF8&ll=61.401649,-149.460068&spn=0.10912,0.44632&z=12&iwloc=addr) about 22 miles northeast of downtown Anchorage but still within the Municipality of Anchorage. Redoubt is about 99 miles from my office, the air traffic control tower at Anchorage International Airport. It's clearly visible from the cab on a nice day.

I've been keeping my eye on the wind charts and most days, at least one of the tracks (especially 20-40K feet) always seems to be sitting right on top of Anchorage. Later this week looks better for us, though...but worse for the Kenai.


Ahh, yeah, more like the expected path. The other Peters Creek shown on the map I have is more or less in the middle of nowhere at all, and a dirt road passes through it. No other roads show up. But it was substantially north of where you are :)

Well, may the wind be atypical when it does blow!

Trebuchet
2009-Feb-26, 07:48 PM
I'm in the Peters Creek (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Peters+Creek+AK&sll=61.406826,-149.461784&sspn=0.056523,0.22316&ie=UTF8&ll=61.401649,-149.460068&spn=0.10912,0.44632&z=12&iwloc=addr) about 22 miles northeast of downtown Anchorage but still within the Municipality of Anchorage. Redoubt is about 99 miles from my office, the air traffic control tower at Anchorage International Airport. It's clearly visible from the cab on a nice day.

I've been keeping my eye on the wind charts and most days, at least one of the tracks (especially 20-40K feet) always seems to be sitting right on top of Anchorage. Later this week looks better for us, though...but worse for the Kenai.

Was it Redoubt erupting about 20 years ago (just after I started working for Boeing) when a 747 on its delivery flight to Europe flew through the ash cloud and had a four-engine flameout? They got them restarted and landed at Anchorage but the repairs ran into multiple tens of millions.

slang
2009-Feb-26, 08:41 PM
Was it Redoubt erupting about 20 years ago (just after I started working for Boeing) when a 747 on its delivery flight to Europe flew through the ash cloud and had a four-engine flameout? They got them restarted and landed at Anchorage but the repairs ran into multiple tens of millions.

Yes (plays sound on load!) (http://puff.images.alaska.edu/Redoubt_webpage/Puff_redoubt_ash.shtml). I remember it was a KLM Boeing 747. Easy find. :)

PetersCreek
2009-Feb-26, 10:36 PM
That was before my time (I moved here in '98) but working with the FAA, I've heard it mentioned many times.

flynjack1
2009-Feb-27, 12:40 AM
Volcanic ash is hard on turbine engines! The pilots actually managed to get them restarted or there would have been a much worse result.

jlhredshift
2009-Feb-27, 12:56 PM
Latest AVO update:


2009-02-27 02:28:08

Redoubt Volcano has not erupted. Seismicity during the past 24 hours has consisted mostly of small discrete earthquakes. A tremor event between 17:30 and 18:10 yesterday evening occurred when and a small mudflow and vigorous steam plume could be seen in the webcam images, emerging from one of the ice holes on the mountain's upper north flank. The flow peaked between 17:52 and 18:04.

During an overflight yesterday afternoon, geologists noted steaming from the base of the 1989-1990 dome and from a melt hole on Drift Glacier.

Ahh, "vigorous steam plume", OK, maybe it would be a good idea to check that preparedness kit.

rommel543
2009-Feb-27, 04:30 PM
The Webicorder readouts for REF and RSO are amazing. REF has red lines everywhere.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/REF_EHZ_AV.php


RED LINES indicate either a calibration pulse, or where the signal was clipped (too large to be recorded on the scale of the webicorder).

dgavin
2009-Feb-28, 09:38 PM
USGS is sayign today No significant earthquake swarms have occurred in the past 24 hours.


However it looks more active with swarms then with tremors today.

dgavin
2009-Mar-02, 02:35 AM
2009-03-01 13:50:46

Redoubt volcano has not erupted. Seismicity continues to be dominated by small discrete earthquakes with diminished tremor.

Clear webcam images show no changes of the volcano. A steam plume has been visible most of the day.
AVO continues to staff the observatory 24 hours a day and to monitor Redoubt volcano closely.

I checked the webcams but the steam plume is no longer happening, so no pictures of it at this point.

Buttercup
2009-Mar-02, 03:20 AM
drums fingers on desk
drums fingers on desk
drums fingers on desk

Okay, Mt. Redoubt; anytime you'd care to finally erupt... :rolleyes:

I'm re-doubting this volcano. :p

Jens
2009-Mar-02, 03:47 AM
Okay, Mt. Redoubt; anytime you'd care to finally erupt... :rolleyes:


My only recommendation: keep your eyes on the read-out. :)

Trebuchet
2009-Mar-02, 08:21 PM
Yes (plays sound on load!) (http://puff.images.alaska.edu/Redoubt_webpage/Puff_redoubt_ash.shtml). I remember it was a KLM Boeing 747. Easy find. :)

Thanks Slang, also PetersCreek and flynjack1! I didn't mean to ignore your responses but had a little unexpected excitement with my Dad landing in the hospital on Friday. (He's fine, pretty much a false alarm.)

KLM was my recollection but I wasn't sure. I vaguely recall that in addition to the engines, they had to replace all the electronics due to ash in their cooling air as well as all the A/C ducting.

I think there was another similar incident in Indonesia around the same time, as well. Does volcanic ash show on the weather radar?

dgavin
2009-Mar-03, 01:02 AM
Thanks Slang, also PetersCreek and flynjack1! I didn't mean to ignore your responses but had a little unexpected excitement with my Dad landing in the hospital on Friday. (He's fine, pretty much a false alarm.)

KLM was my recollection but I wasn't sure. I vaguely recall that in addition to the engines, they had to replace all the electronics due to ash in their cooling air as well as all the A/C ducting.

I think there was another similar incident in Indonesia around the same time, as well. Does volcanic ash show on the weather radar?

It does, but it is a lot more evident in satellite imaging.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-03, 01:11 AM
drums fingers on desk
drums fingers on desk
drums fingers on desk

Okay, Mt. Redoubt; anytime you'd care to finally erupt... :rolleyes:

I'm re-doubting this volcano. :p

I would like to observe it erupt, but I do feel trepidation for possible harm it may cause.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-04, 03:25 AM
Update:


Nothing happening

Swift
2009-Mar-04, 02:11 PM
A whole lot of nothing going on. ;)

Scamp
2009-Mar-04, 03:09 PM
Not true at all! On Sunday there was a faint wisp of steam floating away from the Volcano.....

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-04, 03:20 PM
Not true at all! On Sunday there was a faint wisp of steam floating away from the Volcano.....

Well, see post #88 above for 3/1, but thanks.

rommel543
2009-Mar-04, 04:31 PM
There's some activitiy on the REF and RSO.. getting some red bars again.

RSO: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/RSO_EHZ_AV.php
REF: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/REF_EHZ_AV.php

dgavin
2009-Mar-05, 01:18 AM
Most of the red Bars are due to calibration pulses. Especialy the ones sort of in a retangle configuration.

The Larger quake on those readings was actualy in Cook inlet, close to Reboubt.

However no tremors since Saturday/Sunday after the last steam burst. But I don't think the volcano is done yet.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-05, 01:20 PM
nothing to report, again

Well, it makes Peters Creek happy.

geonuc
2009-Mar-05, 05:20 PM
nothing to report, again

In other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. :D

Swift
2009-Mar-05, 06:05 PM
In other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. :D
<snort> :lol:

Gillianren
2009-Mar-05, 06:46 PM
In other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. :D

I always hear that in Garrett Morris's "News for the Hard of Hearing" voice.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-06, 04:35 AM
2009-03-05 18:05:13

Redoubt volcano has not erupted. Seismicity is low, and includes small, discrete earthquakes.

Webcams and satellite images are obscured by clouds today.


I hear no evil, I see no evil, well just to kill time:

He who picks up rocks while running was _________?

dgavin
2009-Mar-06, 03:18 PM
Well after reviewing the latest RSAM plot (attached) I'd have to say that it looks as if Reboubt might very well be heading back to sleep for a while. It's a bit hard to be certain at this point.

If it stays quiet, then I expect USGS willl downgrade it to an advisory/yellow condition next week.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-10, 11:04 PM
I think we are done for a while.


2009-03-10 10:38:14

The color code at Redoubt has been lowered from Orange to Yellow. Please see the recent information release for more details. We will no longer post updates on Redoubt every two hours.

Seismicity at Redoubt continues to be slightly above background but remains at low levels. No other unusul activity has been observed.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-10, 11:20 PM
Now, now. I know you're disappointed but there's always another volcano just down the road. :whistle:

Cleveland and Okmok are at Yellow, too. Maybe one of them will pipe up.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-10, 11:27 PM
Now, now. I know you're disappointed but there's always another volcano just down the road. :whistle:

Cleveland and Okmok are at Yellow, too. Maybe one of them will pipe up.

Or Yellowstone, The New Madrid Fault, or Mt. Rainer, I always worry that our place on this planet is temporary, sort of like being renters.

jj_0001
2009-Mar-10, 11:28 PM
Or Yellowstone, The New Madrid Fault, or Mt. Rainer, I always worry that our place on this planet is temporary, sort of like being renters.

Um, if Ranier goes off, would you loan me a couple more shovels? :) :) :) :)

BIG shovels. :)

Seriously, the one that worries me is the New Madrid failed rift. Look on google earth, and look at the pipelines through that region. ! :(

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-10, 11:39 PM
Um, if Ranier goes off, would you loan me a couple more shovels? :) :) :) :)

BIG shovels. :)

Seriously, the one that worries me is the New Madrid failed rift. Look on google earth, and look at the pipelines through that region. ! :(

There is evidence that as the pacific plate moves north west it is dragging the western half of North America clockwise and (speculation) could put tension on the rift. It would be a real mess.

flynjack1
2009-Mar-11, 03:59 PM
I grew up in southern MO. and they dont build to earthquake standards. It would indeed be very ugly if New Madrid went off!

Gillianren
2009-Mar-11, 05:32 PM
A teacher I had in high school went to Madison to escort some kids from my school at an academic competition, and she was just horrified by all that unreinforced brick. A friend of mine, who is from Maine originally, sees brick as stability. I see it as a deathtrap.

dgavin
2009-Mar-11, 07:59 PM
Well, as jlhredshift already posted, it's lookign like Redoubt might be done. For now.

The seismographs today appear to have dropped to background level readings for a volcano.

So all this build up for a small steam eruption it seems. This volcano seems to really live up to it's name!

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-16, 12:34 PM
This AM


2009-03-16 04:05:24

Low level volcanic tremor has occurred continuously over the past six hours. Web camera images are dark.

Redoubt has not erupted, but has returned to the level of unrest observed during parts of late January and February.

The AVO operations center has resumed 24/7 monitoring of the volcano.

Swift
2009-Mar-16, 01:02 PM
I'm back

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-16, 01:18 PM
Low level volcanic tremor has occurred continuously over the past six hours.

Ok, so the ground shakes, molecules bang together, and eventually the energy makes it to the surface to eventually be radiated into space.

Question, how much energy is six hours of continuous shaking?

It's probably not an earth shattering amount (cough), but it has to be something.

dgavin
2009-Mar-16, 01:51 PM
Ok, so the ground shakes, molecules bang together, and eventually the energy makes it to the surface to eventually be radiated into space.

Question, how much energy is six hours of continuous shaking?

It's probably not an earth shattering amount (cough), but it has to be something.

Depends on the force fo the material behind it. In this case....

Redoubt has finally erupted?...it's small, but it has, sort of...


2009-03-15 14:50:14 (javascript:dm('div_VAN/VONA_3852');) - VAN/VONA

Seismic activity at Redoubt has increased since about 13:00 AKDT and is continuing. An AVO observation flight reported that a steam and ash plume rose as high as 15,000 ft above sea level and produced minor ash fall on the upper south flank of Redoubt. Last reports are that the plume is now mainly steam.

Based on thsi change in activity AVO is increasing the level of concern and alert level to ORANGE/WATCH.


It's funny though the twitter is still saying it has not erupted. However a ash emision quallifies as an eruprution, even if it is a small one. It's a darn good indication that there might be more coming down the road though.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-16, 02:49 PM
Depends on the force fo the material behind it.

My bold

So, its the middle amount of energy as in; (wait for it)


FEE FI FO FUM

dgavin
2009-Mar-16, 07:33 PM
My bold

So, its the middle amount of energy as in; (wait for it)


FEE FI FO FUM

:lol:


Actualy it's hard to nail down magnitude's of the tremors as they can vary quickly over short periods, yet last for hours.

The best I've be able to do is guess an high average magnitude, that would rougly corralate to what would of happened if the energy over those hours, was released as a single quake. I assume USGS and professional Vulcanologists have better ways to accomplish this. I don't have that sort of access to the raw data (in a timely fassion) to figure out on my own however.

dgavin
2009-Mar-17, 02:05 PM
Well...it's already settled back down!

I know guesses usually fire wide of the facts, but here is my semi educated opinion.

For some reason the magma stopped moving which is likely temporary. However the magma is still releasing gasses, leading to the two steam bursts, and this latest steam/ash burst.

This behavior of tremors followed by a small steam or steam/ash burst will be likely to continue, and might even be somewhat episodic, until the magma deeper down frees itself (or gets completely blocked off).

So while Redoubt remains in this semi-choked up state, it could continue to exhibit this odd behavior. In some ways it may behave like a geyser. Quiet for a few weeks, then a small tremor with a steam or steam/ash burst following.

The size of the emission's will be the tell tale sign here. If they stay at the current size, of a few hundred feet to the latest of 5000 feet. Then we are looking at a trapped magma's pocket gas release.

If they steadily increase in size, then likely the magma is still on the move, but at a very slow rate.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-17, 03:06 PM
There is no problem that cannot be solved by a suitable application of high explosives - US Army Demolitions School

dgavin
2009-Mar-17, 06:36 PM
Some good infromation from USGS:


2009-03-16 14:40:48 - Information Statement

Current Status and Observations
Seismic activity at Mount Redoubt increased at about 1:05 AKDT Sunday afternoon (March 15, 2009) and approximately 4 hours of continuous volcanic tremor ensued. The onset of the tremor was associated with a small explosion that produced a plume of gas and ash that rose to about 15,000 feet above sea level and deposited a trace amount of ash over the summit-crater floor and down the south flank of the volcano to about 3,000 feet. AVO responded to this increase in activity by raising the color code and alert level to ORANGE/WATCH at 2:50 PM AKDT. At this time it does not appear that the increase in activity heralds a significant eruption in the short term, but conditions may evolve rapidly.

An AVO overflight Sunday witnessed activity from 11:30 AM until about 3:00 PM and was able to document ash emission from a new vent, just south of the 1990 lava dome and west of the prominent ice collapse feature near the north edge of the summit crater. Although ash emission was short lived, it represents the first documented ash fall during the current episode of unrest at Mount Redoubt.

About twenty minutes after the initial steam and ash burst, a sediment-laden flow occurred from a small area in the ice at about 7000 feet on upper Drift glacier. This flow descended about 1500 feet and produced a distinctive seismic signature seen across the Redoubt network.

Although the intent of the overflight was make airborne gas measurements, only a few such measurements were possible due to the uncertain nature of the activity and potential for further ash emission. The measurements that were made indicated at least a qualitative increase in SO2 emission relative to levels measured previously. The gas data are currently being processed and will be available soon.

Interpretation of New Activity and Possible Outcomes
Although preliminary, it is likely that the plume observed just after 1:00 PM AKDT on Sunday, March 15, 2009 was produced by a steam explosion in the shallow hydrothermal system of the volcano. Without examination of the ash we cannot say with certainty if the ash represents new magma or if it is merely pulverized old material from the surface of the volcano.

Steam-driven explosions are not unexpected events at Redoubt given the amount of heat that is being released at the surface. It is possible that more such explosions can occur with little or no warning. It is possible that these plumes can reach above 20,000 feet, and may contain minor amounts of fine ash.

Relatively rapid increases in seismic activity, and an overall waxing and waning pattern to the seismicity at Redoubt may persist for weeks to months. Increases in seismicity may or may not be associated with other volcanic phenomena, such as minor ash emission, and vigorous steaming. The burst of activity at Redoubt on March 15, 2009 indicates that the volcano is still in a restless condition.

AVO plans to visit Redoubt later this week to attempt collection of ash samples, retrieve GPS data and do some routine maintenance of seismic and other equipment.

AVO has resumed 24 hour per day staffing of the AVO operations center in Anchorage.

Squink
2009-Mar-18, 07:11 PM
Both webcams appear to show a small steam cloud right now:
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php


http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/avo/webcam/redoubt.jpg

Buttercup
2009-Mar-18, 07:22 PM
ZzzZZzzzZZZzzzz

I'd nearly forgotten about this volcano. :rolleyes:

Maybe we need a gypsy with a crystal ball to tell us when it finally will erupt. By century's end or whenever.

geonuc
2009-Mar-19, 11:19 AM
Maybe we need a gypsy with a crystal ball to tell us when it finally will erupt. By century's end or whenever.
Has anyone gone up to the top of the volcano and asked it?

"Yo! Redoubt! Sorry to bother you, but we got a lot of people asking when you're going to, like, do something. Can you give us an idea? I mean, we'll go stand around some other mountain if you're going to be awhile with all this. We can come back later, if you like."

Buttercup
2009-Mar-19, 11:45 AM
Lol geonuc! :D

Mt. Redoubt is being VERY inconsiderate. I'm tempted to fly there and kick it or something...

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-19, 12:09 PM
2009-03-18 10:33:49

The Alaska Volcano Observatory has lowered the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Alert Level to Advisory for Mount Redoubt.

AVO will continue to monitor Redoubt closely, but will no longer be formally staffed 24 hours per day.

This will be the last hourly (or bi-hourly) update until further notice.

ZZZzzzzZZZzzzzZZZ

Buttercup
2009-Mar-19, 12:23 PM
Frankly I think Mt. Redoubt is behaving like a spoiled has-been celebrity: Doing whatever it can to maintain spotlight interest somehow. A bit of rumble, and little steam: "Watch me! Watch me!" Anything to remain in the limelight. Sheesh.

I guess Mt. Redoubt watches Reality TV. *snaps fingers* That's it! It wants to be a Reality TV star. :rolleyes: Good grief.

dgavin
2009-Mar-19, 02:12 PM
Frankly I think Mt. Redoubt is behaving like a spoiled has-been celebrity: Doing whatever it can to maintain spotlight interest somehow. A bit of rumble, and little steam: "Watch me! Watch me!" Anything to remain in the limelight. Sheesh.

I guess Mt. Redoubt watches Reality TV. *snaps fingers* That's it! It wants to be a Reality TV star. :rolleyes: Good grief.

Announcer: So you want to be a strato-volcano?

Gillianren
2009-Mar-19, 04:58 PM
I don't get the enthusiasm to see it erupt. It will over geological time scales; by those time scales, it will erupt pretty soon. If it doesn't by our time scales, well, Peters Creek won't be inconvenienced, so all to the better. If Mount Rainier heated up, I would hate for people to be cheering it on, given how much destruction that eruption will cause.

Oh, and dgavin, it's spelled "Halley."

dgavin
2009-Mar-19, 06:30 PM
I don't get the enthusiasm to see it erupt. It will over geological time scales; by those time scales, it will erupt pretty soon. If it doesn't by our time scales, well, Peters Creek won't be inconvenienced, so all to the better. If Mount Rainier heated up, I would hate for people to be cheering it on, given how much destruction that eruption will cause.

Oh, and dgavin, it's spelled "Halley."

I know, thats how the Lyrics for the song are written though.

Gillianren
2009-Mar-19, 07:02 PM
I know, thats how the Lyrics for the song are written though.

Then a [sic] would be in order.

dgavin
2009-Mar-21, 06:41 PM
Well some interesting developments with our doubting it will ever erupt, Mt. Redoubt.

Starting on the 20th, and increasing in frequency and intensity into today, a swarm of small earthquakes began at the summit of the mountain.

Since this episode of small surface quakes began, they have increased to almost a quake every minute. Or a swarm of about 52 quakes per hour. USGS has still not monitored any significant swelling of the mountain.

Since this surface swarm began, a small steam plume is now continually visible in the Redoubt-HUT web-cam.

From all signs this is likely hydrothermal activity at the surface, and may cumulate in a series of steam (and old ash) eruptions.

USGS braved the swarms yesterday and placed another seismograph on the mountain.

dgavin
2009-Mar-22, 07:46 PM
USGS/AVO has upgraded Mt. Redoubt back to Orange/Watch status.

Earthquake activity at the sumit has increased in the last few hours from about 40-50 per hour to approximately 2 per minute (120 per hour). The intensity of some of these events in this sawrm are now showing up on regional seismographs.

The Steam/Gas plume is still visible in the webcam, and doesn't show any hints of slowing down.

mr.kami
2009-Mar-23, 08:33 AM
Alaska's Mount Redoubt erupts (http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/03/23/alaska.volcano/index.html)

Stroller
2009-Mar-23, 09:30 AM
warnings are at red
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php

flynjack1
2009-Mar-23, 12:34 PM
AVO reports 4 erruptions over night and ash cloud 50,000 feet high. Cloud is mainly heading to the NE. Peters Creek, how goes it?

Swift
2009-Mar-23, 12:54 PM
The National Weather Service (http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php) has issued an ashfall advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
240 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009

AKZ145-231600-
/X.EXT.PAFC.AF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090323T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
240 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009

...ASHFALL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

THE ASHFALL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING.

REDOUBT VOLCANO AT 60.5N 152.7W HAS ERUPTED SEVERAL TIMES DURING
THE NIGHT. LIGHT ASHFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT SKWENTNA.
LIGHT ASHFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS
MORNING.

Swift
2009-Mar-23, 12:58 PM
The most recent from AVO

2009-03-23 04:37:08 (time of this post is ~4:57 Alaska time)
Another large explosion is occurring at Redoubt.

aurora
2009-Mar-23, 01:49 PM
CNN Story (http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/03/23/alaska.volcano/index.html) of the eruption.

dgavin
2009-Mar-23, 02:15 PM
I captured the siesmographs for the events, and will post them when I get off work tonight.

During the 4th Eruption, the RSO seismograph station at Redoubt went offline, likely burried or destroyed.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-23, 05:14 PM
Peters Creek is still on the map and I'm not buried in ash just yet. Last report I heard had the ash cloud at 50-60,000 ft ASL on a northerly track. Ashfall has been reported at Skwentna and Chiutna and is a possibility from Willow to Talkeetna.

Swift
2009-Mar-23, 05:27 PM
Its good to know your still with us Brett.

Gillianren
2009-Mar-23, 05:52 PM
You will no doubt not be surprised, Peters Creek, when I tell you that you were my first thought when I started reading this thread this morning.

aurora
2009-Mar-23, 06:20 PM
It's just starting to get light enough to look at the webcams (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/index.php).

Swift
2009-Mar-23, 06:32 PM
The hut webcam shows nothing. I think it is dead (see below)

The CI webcam shows grey, foggy soup.

The latest from AVO

2009-03-23 10:17:31

The eruption of Redoubt volcano continues.

Ash plumes generated by the explosive bursts are drifting north-northeast. Ash fall has been reported in Skwentna and the Chuitna area.

Ashfall advisories are available on the National Weather Service site http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php

AVO's web camera near the volcano is no longer functioning.

AVO is planning an overflight of the volcano later this morning.

dgavin
2009-Mar-23, 06:33 PM
Either the HUT-Webcam or it's transmission station at redoubt may have been destroyed in the eruption...or it just ran out of power at a really really bad moment.

So there will be no close ups from the HUT Webcam. Sorry for the bad news here folks.

AVO is planning a overflight sometime today.

Some good pictures form the 21st overflight:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=16912

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=16911

There has not been a 5th eruption as of yet, but there are indications on the siesmograph thats left of lover levels of emissions (steam or ash)

Two more siesmograph stations (RDN and REF) went offline after the 4th Eruption, but came back on about 7 minutes ago. The new Seismograph station (NCT) seems be the only one to remain active through the ordeal.

dgavin
2009-Mar-23, 07:03 PM
My Interpretations so far (keep in mind I'm a self trained Volcanologist)

We'll see how accurate I am when results are published from USGS

The 4 successive Eruptions possibly indicate that there is a larger reservoir of magma under the mountain then previously thought. Potential for additional eruptions is extremely high.

The possible destruction of the HUT-Webcam at 7km from the summit indicates there was likely a pyroclasitc flow or pulse (maybe multiple ones) associated with the eruptions.

There is almost certainly a lahar, and maybe multiple ones, associated with this event.

Estimate the VE value at 3 to 4. Subject to change once the over flight is done and the aftermath photo's are available

I'd say it has just woken up, and there will like be a few more eruptions. Uncertain if they will be larger or not, but I think it's possible there will be a larger one on the horizon.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-23, 10:06 PM
There has not been a 5th eruption as of yet, but there are indications on the siesmograph thats left of lover levels of emissions (steam or ash)

According to the AVO and news outlets, the 5th eruption occurred at 04:31 AKDT this morning. Some ashfall has been reported in Wasilla, about 20 minutes from Peters Creek on the Glenn Highway. Winds aloft at 50K ASL are still tracking North, while winds at 40K ASL are pushing toward Anchorage. The latter are expected to swing South onto the Kenai Peninsula after midnight.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-23, 10:20 PM
You will no doubt not be surprised, Peters Creek, when I tell you that you were my first thought when I started reading this thread this morning.

Thank you, Gillian. It's quite nice of you to me in mind.

As far as I can tell so far today, things are quite calm here. During my commute into Anchorage this morning, the radio carried announcements that schools were open as usual. We have had quite a few flight cancellations today, though. My manager was supposed to fly to Bethel but since that would have crossed the plume track, it was understandably cancelled. Many other flights were cancelled simply because the low ceiling made plume avoidance impossible. Others, because carriers don't want their plaines stranded here should ANC be directly affected.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-24, 12:15 AM
As of 3:50 PM AKDT, the NWS cancelled today's ashfall advisory for the Susitna Valley.

dgavin
2009-Mar-24, 12:53 AM
The web cam evidently did Survive, and they got a brief image before it shut down again. I suspect it's the transmitter site and not the web cam sites that been affected by the eruption.

If they managed a fly by today, they don't have images available from it yet.

From the image:

I'm now placing the VE index at 3. So not a major eruption as compared to St Helen's.

There does not appear to be any evidence of either a Pyroclastic Flow or Pulse.

There is strong evidence of small Lahar's (mud flows) as seen in the lower portion of the image.

The area of the HUT-Camera got a nice dusting of ash, at it's 7km distance from the summit. But not really a surprise.

*edit to Add* According to the standard VE index of plume heights it might be rated as a VE 5. I'm rating it lower as it did not seem to be as explosive as St. Helen's

Images used by courtesy of USGS/AVO public usage rights

dgavin
2009-Mar-24, 01:07 AM
I have a snack for everyone, it's a large 42mb raw video footage of Redoubt on the 21st.

I do NOT know how long this link will be good for.

ftp://ftpext.usgs.gov/pub/wr/ak/anchorage/read/Redoubt32009/DSC_0141.AVI

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-24, 12:01 PM
Latest update:



2009-03-24 03:08:02

Seismicity has remained unchanged for the past few hours.

Ash from the 7:41PM AKDT March 23, 2009 explosion is still drifting in the atmosphere. A National Weather Service ashfall advisory remains in effect: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php

Images from yesterdays's field observations can be found here: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/images/recent_images.php

dgavin
2009-Mar-24, 07:15 PM
Got some inages of the First Look at Summit since the five eruptions, plus last nights eruption sequence (#5) caught on web cam!

WebCam Mar 23 2009, 19:04:11 AKDT (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=16931)
WebCam Mar 23 2009, 19:55:58 AKDT (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17020)
WebCam Mar 23 2009, 20:43:47 AKDT (First Summit View) (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17027)

Although still blurry, there are definately some changes noticable at the summit, such as the V shape carved out of what used to be an almost flat ridge line between the summit peeks. There might be other changes as well but the ash cloud remnant is obscuring some of the peek formations.



Changes since the 5th blast:

Seismic activity has tapered off since then, becoming almost flat and silent for a few hours today, only to be now followed by a low level harmonic tremor signature.

USGS isn't saying yet, but it appears that Redoubt has basically cleared its throut, and now magma is likely on the move again. I'm still convinced we are seeing the start of the eruptive events, and there will be more to come down the road.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-24, 11:07 PM
Not today please. I don't like the look of the winds-aloft plots.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-25, 11:51 AM
still red



2009-03-25 03:15:45

There has been little change in overall seismic activity over the last several hours. Small discreet events are still occurring. The Aviation Color Code remains at RED, and we are still watching the volcano closely for any sign of renewed explosive activity.

dgavin
2009-Mar-25, 02:09 PM
Possible small (less then VEI 1) steam/ash eruption in the last hours showing on the siesmographs.

VAN/VONA alert


2009-03-25 05:53:13 - VAN/VONA

A small explosion occurred at Redoubt volcano at 05:12 AKDT (1312 UTC). The cloud height is estimated to be about 15,000 ft and is drifting north to northwest of the volcano. The event lasted about 10 minutes.

dgavin
2009-Mar-25, 07:56 PM
Another simillar small Eruption at 10:17 AKDT this morning.

Peters, these are small so shouldn't be any ash fallout worries for you.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-25, 08:28 PM
Nope, the last report I checked had ashfall projected north to northwest and then, only in the immediate vicinity of the volcano.

jj_0001
2009-Mar-25, 10:03 PM
Interesting. Sanford has popped up as condition undetermined on the volcanoes.usgs.gov site. I have no idea if this means anything at all, or why it would appear today.

dgavin
2009-Mar-26, 12:28 AM
Interesting. Sanford has popped up as condition undetermined on the volcanoes.usgs.gov site. I have no idea if this means anything at all, or why it would appear today.

AVO report from 3/20 on Sanford.


For the past several days, residents of the Copper River Basin have observed and reported a persistent, white cloud streaming from the summit of Mt. Sanford and extending for up to several tens of miles to the south. The cloud was easily visible in Gulkana Weather webcam images. AVO analysis of satellite images over the last several days shows that similar clouds have been intermittently streaming from many of the higher mountain peaks in the Wrangells. These clouds are a weather phenomenon and not related to volcanic activity. The most likely explanation for generation of these clouds is the rise and cooling of moist air as regional air masses pass over the mountains. Local geopgraphic features and solar radiation on the peaks contributes to the presence of moist air that subsequently condenses to create and feed these clouds.

Mt. Sanford, located 45 miles (72 km) east of Glennallen, Alaska, is a dissected complex shield volcano and the highest volcano (16,237 ft; 4,949 m) in the Pleistocene Wrangell volcanic field. Its south face has a vertical relief (cliff) of over 8,000 feet (2,400 m). This precipitous wall is the source of nearly constant rock, snow, and ice-falls onto the Sanford Glacier, and on occasion these falls produce minor, local vapor plumes. There is no record of historical eruptive activity at Mt. Sanford, and the youngest lava flows are estimated to be 100,000 years old.


It's one of the few volcano's that are still considered 'Extinct'

dgavin
2009-Mar-26, 12:35 AM
USGS Lowered Redoubt back to condition Orange/Watch today.

And had this to say in the report:


Current seismicity at Redoubt is at times suggestive of intermittent lava extrusion at the volcano's summit. However, the existence of a new lava dome has not been confirmed because of poor weather.

So looks like the only interpretation on the eruptions I was incorrect about was the possibility of a pyroclastic flow.

jj_0001
2009-Mar-26, 08:08 AM
AVO report from 3/20 on Sanford.



It's one of the few volcano's that are still considered 'Extinct'


Ok, weather, plain and simple. That's harmless. Well, no more harmful than weather...

dgavin
2009-Mar-26, 02:41 PM
Other then what looks like a land slide event at 10pm last night, the seismographs have been relatively quiet, with intermittent small quakes that don't even show up on the new seismograph.

dgavin
2009-Mar-26, 07:43 PM
She erupted...Again! at 8:34 AKDT.

Condition has be set back to Red/Warning.

This appears to be another large one, likely a VEI 2 to 3 event again.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17079

Swift
2009-Mar-26, 08:18 PM
From the AVO:


2009-03-26 11:36:34

Seismic activity has declined since the eruption at 09:24 AKDT this morning. Additional ash emissions may occur and another large eruption remains possible.

The 09:24 AKDT event produced a mudflow down the Drift River.

An ashfall advisory in in effect until 4 PM this afternoon for the western Kenai Peninsula where up to 1/8 of an inch of ash could accumulate. For more details refer to the NWS Redoubt Coordination web page (http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php ).

2009-03-26 10:54:12

The major explosive event that started at 09:24 AKDT has diminished, though smaller emissions may occur, or a larger event resume.

The 09:24 event produced a lahar down the Drift River.

Refer to the NWS Redoubt Coordination web page (http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php ) for latest cloud information.

2009-03-26 09:38:42

A major explosive event occurred at 09:24 AKDT. National Weather Service reports the cloud height to be at least 65,000 ft above sea level. Refer to the NWS Redoubt Coordination web page (http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php ) for latest cloud information.

2009-03-26 09:13:25

The explosive event beginning at roughly 08:34 AKDT is diminishing. The event is much smaller than the events of March 22-23 but larger than the events yesterday morning.


2009-03-26 09:02:55

AVO raised the aviation color code to Red and the alert level to Warning at Redoubt volcano. An explosive event beginning at roughly 08:34 AKDT has produced an eruption cloud to at least 30,000 ft. above sea level. The event seems to be dimishing.

2009-03-26 08:52:50

A new explosive event at Redoubt has just taken place at approximately 8:34 AKDT. The NWS has detected a cloud height of about 30,000 feet based on radar. The Aviation Color Code is being raised to Red and the Volcano Alert Level to Warning.

Dave J
2009-Mar-26, 11:00 PM
They say they'rer gearing up for a gas sampling flight...where do they operate from? The Drift River terminal airstrip already had some lahar damage, and is possibly getting more mudflow action...not a "happy" place (unless you're a geologist :) )

dgavin
2009-Mar-27, 12:52 AM
They have a Heliport somewhere near by, but not sure where...

Current conditions, there has been an almost continual volcanic tremor for the past hour and a half, with almost as continuous steam (with some ash) emission.

More nice pictures from this mornings eruption: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17116

As seen from Satellite http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17104

Ash-fall at nearby Lodge http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17085
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17100

Magnified ash from 24th http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17065

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 12:56 AM
I got this in email few moments ago.


ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY CURRENT STATUS REPORT
Thursday, March 26, 2009 12:33 PM AKDT (Thursday, March 26, 2009 20:33 UTC)

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
6029'7" N 15244'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: RED
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

A large eruption of Redoubt volcano occurred at 09:24 AKDT (17:24 UTC)
this morning. National Weather Service reports the cloud height to be
at least 65,000 ft above sea level and pilot reports indicated a plume
height of 60,000 ft. Since this event, a few smaller events have
occurred but these did not generate plumes above about 20,000 feet.

The eruption at 9:24 AKDT also produced a lahar in the Drift River
valley that was detected by seismic instruments.

An ashfall advisory is in effect until 4 PM for the western Kenai
Peninsula. High level ash (above 30,000 feet) is forecast to pass over
Anchorage, but is not expected to produce ash fall. For more
information refer to the NWS Redoubt Coordination web page
(http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php) for latest ash cloud
information.

AVO is monitoring the situation closely, the observatory is staffed
24/7, and attempts to overfly the volcano will occur as soon as
possible. More details on this mornings eruption also will be released
on AVO's web page as soon as possible.

I would love to see a helicorders plot of the activity there.

dgavin
2009-Mar-27, 02:15 AM
I got this in email few moments ago.



I would love to see a helicorders plot of the activity there.

Thats a VEI 5!!!!! (Talking St. Helen's strength here).

A fairly significant event.

I guess I has grossly underestimated it earlier...But I was correct in my interpretation earlier this week that a larger eruption was on the way.

Peters? I understand the winds were going south wards for this, but how you all doing there north of it?

Attaching the heliocorder's for you jonfr. First is Sunday's (3/22), Second is the smaller Monday event. I forgot to capture yesterdays 2 small eruptions:/ And the third is todays.

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 02:49 AM
I have been estimating this eruption to reach (great possibility) a level (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) that is VEI=6, but based on the latest data that I get here, it might go up to VEI=7 event. However, it is quite hard to say at the moment. I guess that this eruption might end in caldera formation.

Based on the helicorders, there appears to be a huge magma pressure under the volcano. The volcano simply might blow it self to up to pieces. But it is really hard to predict volcanoes, so it might go both ways.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-27, 03:14 AM
Ashfall was on the western Kenai Peninsula from Port Graham, to Homer, and points north. Upper portions of the ash cloud came over Anchorage but there wasn't to be significant ashfall.

flynjack1
2009-Mar-27, 03:33 AM
Ashfall was on the western Kenai Peninsula from Port Graham, to Homer, and points north. Upper portions of the ash cloud came over Anchorage but there wasn't to be significant ashfall.

Good to hear no problems there yet. Hope the air stays clear for you, but if the predictions of a bigger boom to come are true, dont put the mask away just yet.

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 04:58 AM
There is a lot of earthquakes happening in the volcano at the moment. It signals in my opinion a pre-cursor for a new eruption in next 5 to 18 hours (from when I write this). Given the earthquake size in the plot, they appears to be ML2,5 to ML3,5 and maybe larger. I also see in this plot a slow and low period earthquakes, but those happens when the magma is pushing up trough the volcano it self.

The online plot can be found here, http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/

dgavin
2009-Mar-27, 05:25 AM
There is a lot of earthquakes happening in the volcano at the moment. It signals in my opinion a pre-cursor for a new eruption in next 5 to 18 hours (from when I write this). Given the earthquake size in the plot, they appears to be ML2,5 to ML3,5 and maybe larger. I also see in this plot a slow and low period earthquakes, but those happens when the magma is pushing up trough the volcano it self.

The online plot can be found here, http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webicorders/Redoubt/

Actually those are surface quakes of very low intensity. About .5 magnitude. The way to estimate magnitude is to check Mt Spurr's seismographs and other graphs around the area, but not close to Redoubt. If it barely shows up on Spurr, it's about a Mag 2.8. So the VEI 5+ blast today only had a Mag 2.8 or 2.9 event behind it.

The VEI is a bit of a subjective scale.

It's not just the cloud height but the destructive force as well.

A VEI 5 usually always includes a Pyroclastic flow/pulse event.

Redoubt did not have one of those today, which means it was mostly a hydrothermal (steam) event with some ash emission. (it takes a lot of hot ash weight to cause an eruption column to collapse into a pyroclastic flow/pulse).

This is the first time that I think an almost purely steam driven eruption reached a VEI 5. As such I'd not be willing to rate it much higher myself.

I did hypothetically talk about a similar massive steam eruption possibility at Crater Lake years ago on this forum. But that was only idle speculation.

This is really sort of a new happening here, to have basically a succession of eruptions of mostly steam, with some ash. But not a lot of ash.

I wouldn't count out a caldera collapse, but it's not likely yet. That would have certain precursor signals, such as an extended single eruption (blast) lasting from 24 hours to days or even weeks, and massive deformation of the entire region. Surprisingly there has not been much deformation at Redoubt yet.

We're still looking at a mostly, hydrothermal driven set of events here. There are some indications of magma movement, but these appear to be slow, seem to stop for days or weeks, and don't match common eruption patterns.

William
2009-Mar-27, 10:00 AM
This is a link to the AP news release for the eruption.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090327/ap_on_re_us/alaska_volcano


ANCHORAGE, Alaska Alaska's Mount Redoubt erupted several times Thursday, spewing a more than 12-mile-high cloud that could drop ash on Anchorage for the first time since the volcano began erupting Sunday night.

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 12:08 PM
Actually those are surface quakes of very low intensity. About .5 magnitude. The way to estimate magnitude is to check Mt Spurr's seismographs and other graphs around the area, but not close to Redoubt. If it barely shows up on Spurr, it's about a Mag 2.8. So the VEI 5+ blast today only had a Mag 2.8 or 2.9 event behind it.

The VEI is a bit of a subjective scale.

It's not just the cloud height but the destructive force as well.

A VEI 5 usually always includes a Pyroclastic flow/pulse event.

Redoubt did not have one of those today, which means it was mostly a hydrothermal (steam) event with some ash emission. (it takes a lot of hot ash weight to cause an eruption column to collapse into a pyroclastic flow/pulse).

This is the first time that I think an almost purely steam driven eruption reached a VEI 5. As such I'd not be willing to rate it much higher myself.

I did hypothetically talk about a similar massive steam eruption possibility at Crater Lake years ago on this forum. But that was only idle speculation.

This is really sort of a new happening here, to have basically a succession of eruptions of mostly steam, with some ash. But not a lot of ash.

I wouldn't count out a caldera collapse, but it's not likely yet. That would have certain precursor signals, such as an extended single eruption (blast) lasting from 24 hours to days or even weeks, and massive deformation of the entire region. Surprisingly there has not been much deformation at Redoubt yet.

We're still looking at a mostly, hydrothermal driven set of events here. There are some indications of magma movement, but these appear to be slow, seem to stop for days or weeks, and don't match common eruption patterns.

The swarm of small earthquakes was followed by a harmonic tremor that did last about two hours. So there is magma pushing it self under the volcano.

I am not sure of the distances, but I find it hard to believe that most of the earthquakes are ML0.5 or smaller. I did however check the map of the sensors to give me an idea of where they are located.

It is always a good idea to keep in mind that volcanoes are unpredictable. No matter how well we monitor them.

Dave J
2009-Mar-27, 01:07 PM
Re: the webcorder plots from last night...before the midnight eruption, there were periodic (about evert couple of minutes) "bumps" on the recorder. Are these what they call "harmonic tremors"? And are these what indicate the magma moving through the rock?

Looks like they "detuned the REF recorder, had a lot of maxxed out red sections yesterda, they're all showing blue now. Still, a 37000 foot plume, something sure popped last night.

I wrote to the AVO, apparently overflights are based out of PANC, but I suspect helo flights likely have a forward staging base, still don't know where. Drift River Treminal would be an increasingly hazardous location, they've already had lahars go into the inlet, damaging the airstrip a bit and getting over some tank berms slightly.

dgavin
2009-Mar-27, 02:17 PM
The swarm of small earthquakes was followed by a harmonic tremor that did last about two hours. So there is magma pushing it self under the volcano.

I am not sure of the distances, but I find it hard to believe that most of the earthquakes are ML0.5 or smaller. I did however check the map of the sensors to give me an idea of where they are located.

It is always a good idea to keep in mind that volcanoes are unpredictable. No matter how well we monitor them.

If you go to the USGS Websites Earthquakes page you can see the events that rated 1.0 Magnitude or larger. There are a few 1.0 to 2.0 events, but not a lot of them.

Volcano Seismographs are -much- more sensitive then standard EQ Seismographs, quite often picking up wind storms causing trees to Sway, and other signals.

Additionally surface quakes on a volcano's summit don't behave the same as a deeper quake. The waves move down the mountain and into the earth in a cone like shape, there is very little lateral movement of the surrounding earth.

Harmonic Tremors are not restricted to just magma moving, they are also caused by geysers and other hydrothermal activity. Yes there is likely Magma moving, that much is known. What isn't evident yet is where the magma is precisely.

Has it made it into the mountain? Is it at the base of the mountain? Deeper? It's still an unknown.

The two hour long tremor appears to be related directly to the eruption, putting that one in the hydrothermal category. Deeper magmatic tremors are also occurring but they have been showing up as lower intensity tremors, and appear on the seismographs with less variation in intensity on them.

This was a extremely large eruption, just the content of it was mostly steam. There was some ash, but not a lot. A very unique event for such a large blast. Like i said, I don't think such a huge steam blast has been recorded before.

Dave J
2009-Mar-27, 03:36 PM
Got some inages of the First Look at Summit since the five eruptions, plus last nights eruption sequence (#5) caught on web cam!

WebCam Mar 23 2009, 19:04:11 AKDT (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=16931)
WebCam Mar 23 2009, 19:55:58 AKDT (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17020)
WebCam Mar 23 2009, 20:43:47 AKDT (First Summit View) (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17027)

Although still blurry, there are definately some changes noticable at the summit, such as the V shape carved out of what used to be an almost flat ridge line between the summit peeks. There might be other changes as well but the ash cloud remnant is obscuring some of the peek formations.

Changes since the 5th blast:

Seismic activity has tapered off since then, becoming almost flat and silent for a few hours today, only to be now followed by a low level harmonic tremor signature.

USGS isn't saying yet, but it appears that Redoubt has basically cleared its throut, and now magma is likely on the move again. I'm still convinced we are seeing the start of the eruptive events, and there will be more to come down the road.

I was comparing a few shots of the vilcano, and it seems like the glacier that formed over the 90 dome and filled the caldera is pretty well gone now, revealing the V shaped area up there. The dome is probably gone, the glacier I suppose is in the river below.
Some new pics on the site, can't wait for some better shots of the upper area of the mountain. Fascinating to watch.

Dave J
2009-Mar-27, 05:14 PM
Gone off again this morning, plume to 50,000ft...and the "HutCam" is dark...

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 06:15 PM
I got this email just now.


AVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: Redoubt (CAVW #1103-03-)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

Current Aviation Color Code: RED

Issued: Friday, March 27, 2009, 8:51 AM AKDT (20090327/1651Z)
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2009/A19
Location: N 60 deg 29 min W 152 deg 44 min
Elevation: 10197 ft (3108 m)
Area: Cook Inlet-South Central Alaska

Volcanic Activity Summary: An eruption of Redoubt volcano occurred at
approximately 08:40 AKDT (16:40 UTC). National Weather Service
reports the cloud height to be approximately 50,000 ft above sea level
based on radar.

For ash fall advisories, refer to the National Weather Service Redoubt
Coordination web page http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php

AVO is monitoring the situation closely, the observatory is staffed 24/7.

Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] 32,000 asl confirmed by NWS Radar
[Other volcanic cloud information] Unknown
[Mudflow] Mudflows in the Drift River valley are possible.

dgavin
2009-Mar-27, 07:19 PM
Appears to be another VEI 5 type event, and this time it's looking like a pyroclastic event may have happened as well, indicating a much larger ash content during this eruption.

Looking at the web cam (attached) it looks like the cam lens was ash blasted by pycroclastic flow as well. *edit to add* It might also be fresh snow...but hard to say.

Ashfall is generally heading north and somewhat west...perhaps even toward Ankorage...

Peters? How you holding up there?

Images used by courtesy of USGS/AVO public usage rights

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-27, 08:27 PM
No problems here yet. Ashfall is again projected for the Susitna Valley communites...Willow, Talkeetna, maybe out to the other Peters Creek, etc.

jonfr
2009-Mar-27, 09:47 PM
Too bad that there isn't any hobby seismometers in that area. The volcano is quiet at the moment, but watch out for those earthquake swarms. They appears to give signal to when an eruption might take place.

dgavin
2009-Mar-28, 12:17 AM
No problems here yet. Ashfall is again projected for the Susitna Valley communites...Willow, Talkeetna, maybe out to the other Peters Creek, etc.

Glad everything is well there for you.

Still no word on if this event was pyroclastic or not, but the webcam is even more fouled up now then before, so won't be able to determain that until USGS reports.

I've caught a few glimpses in other images from the 26th...

I think Redoubt, when we can see it again, is going to have quite a different looking summit.

geonuc
2009-Mar-28, 01:04 AM
I think Redoubt, when we can see it again, is going to have quite a different looking summit.
Structurally, or from all the ashfall?

dgavin
2009-Mar-28, 01:51 AM
Structurally, or from all the ashfall?

Both maybe, looks like one of the summit spires might be gone. It's very diffucult to tell in the photographs that are available.

jonfr
2009-Mar-28, 03:03 AM
I got this email few hours ago.


ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY UPDATE
Friday, March 27, 2009 3:43 PM AKDT (Friday, March 27, 2009 23:43 UTC)

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
6029'7" N 15244'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: RED
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

The 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, which began on March 22 at 22:38
AKDT (6:38 UTC March 23), continues. The eruption has been
characterized by powerful ash explosions, with the resulting plumes
reaching between 30,000 to 60,000 feet above sea level. In all, the
Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has observed 11 major explosive
events over the last week. The larger explosions have been associated
with lahars in the Drift River Valley and trace to minor ash fall in
and around the volcano and in areas across south-central Alaska.

There have been no explosions of Redoubt Volcano since this morning
March 27 at approximately 08:40 AKDT (16:40 UTC) and seismicity has
declined at the volcano. The National Weather Service continues to
track the ash cloud from the latest explosion, which is tracking
toward the north-northwest. For ash fall advisories, refer to the
National Weather Service Redoubt Coordination web page
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php

AVO is monitoring the situation closely and the observatory is staffed 24/7.

Based on its past activity, the current Redoubt eruption is expected
to continue for weeks to months. During this time, a cycle of
relatively quiet periods of lava dome growth followed by explosive
episodes of dome destruction could take place. Future explosions pose
an ongoing threat of lahars in the Drift River Valley, trace to minor
ash fall throughout south-central Alaska, and ash-related impacts to
aviation.

Heavily ice-mantled Redoubt volcano is located on the western side of
Cook Inlet, 170 km (106 mi) southwest of Anchorage and 82 km (51 mi)
west of Kenai, within Lake Clark National Park. Redoubt is a
stratovolcano which rises to 10,197 feet above sea level. Recent
eruptions occurred in 1902, 1966-68, and 1989-90. The 1989-90 eruption
produced mudflows, or lahars, that traveled down the Drift River and
partially flooded the Drift River Oil Terminal facility. The ash
plumes produced by the 1989-90 eruption affected international air
traffic and resulted in minor or trace amounts of ash in the city of
Anchorage and other nearby communities.

CLEVELAND VOLCANO (CAVW #1101-24-)
5249'20" N 16956'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY

AVO has received no new reports of activity at Cleveland over the past
week. Partly cloudy satellite views show nothing unusual.

Cleveland volcano forms the western half of Chuginadak Island, a
remote and uninhabited island in the east central Aleutians. It is
located about about 75 km (45 mi.) west of the community of Nikolski,
and 1500 km (940 mi.) southwest of Anchorage. The volcano's most
recent significant eruption began in February, 2001 and had 3
explosive events that produced ash clouds as high as 12 km (39,000 ft)
above sea level. This eruption also produced a rubbly lava flow and
hot avalanche that reached the sea. The most recent minor ash
emissions were observed in January 2009.

OTHER ALASKA VOLCANOES

Seismic activity is monitored in real time at 31 volcanoes in Alaska.
Satellite images of all Alaskan volcanoes are analyzed daily for
evidence of ash plumes and elevated surface temperatures. Some
volcanoes may currently display anomalous behavior but are not
considered to be at a dangerous level of unrest. Akutan, Aniakchak,
Augustine, Dutton, Fisher, Fourpeaked, Gareloi, Great Sitkin, Griggs,
Iliamna, Isanotski, Kanaga, Katmai, Korovin, Mageik, Makushin, Martin,
Novarupta, Okmok, Pavlof, Shishaldin, Snowy, Spurr, Tanaga, Trident,
Ugashik-Peulik, Ukinrek Maars, Veniaminof, Westdahl, and Wrangell
volcanoes are in color code GREEN and volcano alert level Normal. All
are at or near normal levels of background seismicity. AVO did not
detect ash plumes or significant elevated surface temperatures in the
vicinity of any volcano.

Please see http://www.avo.alaska.edu/color_codes.php for complete
definitions of Aviation color codes and Volcano alert levels.

VOLCANO INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET: http://www.avo.alaska.edu
RECORDING ON THE STATUS OF ALASKA'S VOLCANOES (907) 786-7478

Dave J
2009-Mar-28, 03:18 AM
Another pop around 17:35 AKDT, 30k plume...

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-28, 03:21 AM
Ashfall advisory (http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php) for the Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Valley. We just keep dodging those bullets.

Dave J
2009-Mar-28, 03:43 AM
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AHG&loop=yes

and another one just a few minutes ago...you can watch the plumes on the radar...tonight they're drifting about due north...edit...this ones estimated to 51000 ft

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-28, 10:23 AM
Two more at 23:20 AKDT last night and 01:20 AKDT this morning. No ashfall advisory for Anchorage yet...and I don't really expect it based on the plots.

Dave J
2009-Mar-28, 11:54 AM
Wow, every 2 hours, give or take...busy night. But the NWS radar shows everything going pretty much due north. It would be nice to get a clear spell of wx to get the hutcam lens cleaned and have a brief look-see at that thing. There may be s fair bit of deposits starting to accumulate at the camera site though.

I imagine if the tracks start going northeast, life would get pretty inconvenient for you guys around ANC,,,sealing, taping etc. Hang in there.

dgavin
2009-Mar-28, 11:00 PM
Got some pictures from the large 27th eruption.

Oddly enough it formed a classic mushroom cloud formation, which I think would only happen in a rather symmetrical type of blast. Volcanoes eruptions are not normally this symmetrical, with the possible exception of the blast that produced the crater lake caldera.

Close Up (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17281)
Distant View (http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17278)

Also, someone got very brave and did a night flyby during this mornings eruption at 1am, and got some very cool lightning Photographs.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17288
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17287

Considering the almost continuous repeating blasts of Rebout...we might be looking at a 'Summit' type of caldera forming activity here. Hard to say until there are more closeups available of the summit region.

jonfr
2009-Mar-28, 11:09 PM
The eruptions appears to be happening in a shorter time span then before (based on reports). I think that the volcano eruption must be getting closer to it's high point. But it is hard to say when that might actually happen.

Dave J
2009-Mar-28, 11:57 PM
Looking at this eruption that just went off, on the NWS radar (composite) te seems to have a rapid eastward movement in the first 3-4 frames...strange looking, hoping it's a glitch, as all the wx is still moving north. Edit...almost went as far east as the point on the Kenai penninsula, now slowly drifting north...something happened there.

Dave J
2009-Mar-29, 12:32 AM
Well, the hutcam had a pretty clear image from 15:55 there, seems to be melting some. The lower part of the frame showed some clouds, with dust/ash from the activity in the upper part of the frame.
And watching the Kenai NWS radar loop, the plume most definitely headed east immediately, and rapidly. has there been a wind shift? Lightest reflections SSW of ANC.

This is qiute riviting. A pretty good view on the UniCal cam too.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-29, 01:17 AM
From the NWS:


WWAK81 PAFC 290048
SPSAER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2009

AKZ101-125-290600-

...TRACE AMOUNTS OF ASHFALL POSSIBLE FOR ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN
ARM...

REDOUBT VOLCANO ERUPTED AROUND 330 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON SENDING AN
ASH CLOUD TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ASH WILL FALL OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

It's not an ashfall advisory...yet. With any luck, what fall we do get won't extend past Turnagain Arm...since I'm up on Knik Arm.

Dave J
2009-Mar-29, 02:06 AM
Good luck, Peters...still don't get why that thing went east like that. Pics on the AVO website starting to show up...impressive. I think it's safe to say that this eruption episode is well above the 89-90 one.

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-29, 03:49 AM
We have ashfall at the house in Peters Creek. I'm shutting the computer down and baggin' it up for a bit.

Dave J
2009-Mar-29, 03:53 AM
The next cloud from this new eruption is pointed at ANC

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-29, 04:22 AM
Okay, I'm still here in a way. The iPhone let's me surf but I wom't be writing any epic posts or cutting and pasting.

jonfr
2009-Mar-29, 05:07 AM
This doesn't look good. Based on the limited data that I have. I estimate that there is going to be a high point in the eruption soon.

There appears to be a lot of magma building up inside the volcano. That amount of magma has not been released, the amount that has gone out appears to be small fraction of the magma that is under the volcano.

There appears to be a small earthquake activity at the moment. But there are harmonic tremors on the sensor data and is bad news. Those how are nearby the volcano should prepare them self for an ash fall on a new scale.

PetersCreek, I hope that you will be ok. You are good distance from the volcano (~100 km I think).

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-29, 05:34 AM
A bit more than 100 km. It's about 100 miles from my tower at ANC and I have a 30-mile commute.

The latest ashfall advisory is in effect until 1AM Sunday and extends all the way out to Chickaloon.

dgavin
2009-Mar-29, 07:43 AM
I have not heard of a volcano that exhibited the kind of behavior this one is, although I'm still researching that.

However I think I may have a model that might explain it's repeating eruptive behavior of rather large eruptions, with short intervals, and the higher content of steam versus ash of them.

I think what is going on is that at the start of this eruptive sequence last Sunday, was the magma entering the underground water-table, possibly even an underground water reservoir. This is likely not to far underground from the surface, 20 meters to maybe 1000 meters deep.

When the magma entered this region the initial mostly steam eruptions on Sunday began. Because of the expansion of the water into steam from the magma inject into the water table or reservoir, the eruptions occur in rather rapid successions (geologically speaking) instead of longer less frequent eruptions.

As the magma injected more into the water tables, the eruptions became stronger, and as water flash boiled against the magma, more and more ash was introduced from the heat/cooling fracturing of the molten rock injecting into cooler water.

The inject of magma into the water table seems to be continuing, instead of making it into the mountain as expected. This likely means this style of eruptive behavior will continue. Also it hints that the injection might happening in an underground reservoir area.

Which makes an eventual ground or caldera collapse a bit more likely.

However this is just my best guess at a model. Tomorrow, I'm going to try and hunt down any information on water table structure for the region.

jonfr
2009-Mar-29, 08:33 AM
The magma has boiled out the water the rocks long time ago. Glacier on the mountain makes no difference in that sense. Glaciers can delay an eruption if they are big enough, that due to pressure that they put on the volcano.

The Mount Redoubt eruption appears to be only gas sided explosive eruption (based on really limited data). If there is a water interaction happening there, it is only in the top 3 km of the volcano (best guess).

Here is a web page about volcano eruption types.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/volc/eruptions.html

dgavin
2009-Mar-29, 08:49 AM
jonfr I think I mentioned that this would close to surface interaction with the water table.

Also, subduction magma has a high concentration of water and CO2 gasses in them already. Which is why subduction volcano's tend to have more explosive eruptions then hot spot and rift zone volcano's. The water doesn't boil out of it, until it's no longer under enough presure. When it does release, it's explosive.

I've already done some ash comparisons, as ash tends to show how it formed (water content, minerals, etc..)

For example, Mt. St. Helen's ash, although jagged and evidencing gas bubble formation, doesn't have a lot of particulate fragmentation to it.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Imgs/Jpg/Tephra/SarnaSem_60-010_large.jpg

However ash from Redoubt though similar, has a unique sub particle fragmentation to it, evidence of higher water/magma explosive interactions.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/avo/dbimages/display/1238194701_ak231.jpg

geonuc
2009-Mar-29, 11:29 AM
Just so I understand, you're comparing the Redoubt ash with that of St. Helens because both are subduction-related volcanoes, yet the presence of micro particulates in the northern volcano's ash might indicate magma - groundwater interaction?

AKDenise
2009-Mar-29, 12:49 PM
Hi all, I'm new to this forum, but not new to volcano-watching.

dgavin - I believe you'll find that much of the water stored in this area is embedded in alluvial till - deep sand and gravel deposits from receding glaciers. Hope that helps a little.

I have a question that someone here might be able to answer: The geologists mentioned "repeating earthquakes" that showed up at 23:52 3/28. I cannot find a reference as to what they mean, that is IF the scientists know. Does anyone here know what they are and what they signify?

BTW - the 1966 eruption lasted for 2 1/2 years and low frequency sound waves were picked up at seismographs outside Fairbanks.:surprised

.

geonuc
2009-Mar-29, 12:59 PM
Hi, welcome to BAUT.

The USGS has an article on repeating earthquakes, although focused on the San Andreas fault.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/repeat.php

Swift
2009-Mar-29, 02:15 PM
Also, someone got very brave and did a night flyby during this mornings eruption at 1am, and got some very cool lightning Photographs.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/image.php?id=17288

That is a great picture!

Swift
2009-Mar-29, 02:17 PM
From AVO:

2009-03-29 06:04:16
Seismicity has been at low levels in the past 2 hours.

Things seem quiet over the last several reports.

Dave J
2009-Mar-29, 03:56 PM
It will be interesting to "see" the mountain again, I wonder what changes will have happened?
I'm guessing (no real volcano background, just an "enthusiast") that the open caldera glacier and a good portion of the Drift glacier could be gone, as with the 89-90 episode. Haven't seen any reports on the situation in the lower Drift River area, but with the altitude some of the blasts have attained, and some of the photos, it's possible the vent has grown to encompass some of the early small vents in the caldera/upper glacier, with major lahars and mudflows to Cook Inlet (so long as there's glacial ice to melt). The oil terminal area could be quite a (bigger) mess, but not reports thusfar of any oil in the Inlet. I wonder if there's been any significant flow down the Crystal River side?
The before and after shots should be amazing to see, whenever the weather clears.

dgavin
2009-Mar-29, 05:44 PM
Just so I understand, you're comparing the Redoubt ash with that of St. Helen's because both are subduction-related volcanoes, yet the presence of micro particulates in the northern volcano's ash might indicate magma - groundwater interaction?

Yes, compared ash from similar processes. I would of liked some ash from Okmok or from Cleveland instead of St. Helen's. But there is no SEM of those samples I could find.

Although it's more then just the ash. There were at-least two VEI 5 eruptions that were mostly steam, with just a little ash, with the ash content increasing with each eruption. Thats not odd behavior, but the short duration of them, combined with the force of them indicates much more gas present then in normal subduction systems.

The only thing that seems to make sense is that some sort of magma/groundwater interaction is going on.

dgavin
2009-Mar-29, 05:54 PM
Hi all, I'm new to this forum, but not new to volcano-watching.

dgavin - I believe you'll find that much of the water stored in this area is embedded in alluvial till - deep sand and gravel deposits from receding glaciers. Hope that helps a little.

Welcome to BAUT!

That helps a lot. Thats exactly the sort of environment that can hold a lot of ground water.

Thanks man, you saved me some hunting for that information.


The oil terminal area could be quite a (bigger) mess, but not reports thusfar of any oil in the Inlet. I wonder if there's been any significant flow down the Crystal River side?
The before and after shots should be amazing to see, whenever the weather clears.

I read something in one of the past status reports that the Drift River oil pipeline terminal had been shut down, Monday I think, and that it had been damaged a bit after the shut down from mud flows.

AKDenise
2009-Mar-29, 08:49 PM
Hi, welcome to BAUT.

The USGS has an article on repeating earthquakes, although focused on the San Andreas fault.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/repeat.php

thanks.

It's interesting that the conclusions vary some from those for volcanos.

Apparently, the significance for volcanos is still under study, but some say it represents "chugging" (not sure what that means).

There was another eruption at 11:20. Ash to 25,000 feet.

.

AKDenise
2009-Mar-29, 11:38 PM
More searching about "chugging" found:


The physical model for chugging involves a time-varying narrowing vent where gasses are released in a series of oscillations which appear to be harmonic but instead are modelled as short-term transients, or discrete pulses, suggestive of choked flow.

snipped from : Explosions and periodic tremor at Karymsky volcano, Kamchatka, Russia (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118792807/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0)

and



A new description of chugging events using wavelet transform methods, appropriate for non-stationary signals, shows subtle changes in the waveforms relate to physical processes in the volcano. A system of non-linear feedback, based on choked flow at the vent, is postulated as the most likely source of this volcanic tremor.

snipped from: Non-linear explosion tremor at Sangay, Volcano, Ecuador (http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20792527)

.

dgavin
2009-Mar-29, 11:59 PM
From my understanding with volcano's, "Chugging" is related to de-gassing events in the magma chimney or the magma chamber's.

Heck of a volcanic tremor going on right now, starting with the 11:20 event.

jonfr
2009-Mar-30, 12:39 AM
There appears to be rather large magma movement under the volcano. It shows it self in the harmonic tremors on the webicorders.

I guess that next explosive event is going to happen in 3 to 10 hours time.

Spaceweather.com has a image showing the ash cloud movement over the past few days.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

PetersCreek
2009-Mar-30, 01:57 AM
Fortunately, we only got a light dusting of ash here at the house in Peters Creek. Just a couple of quick snapshots of the hood of the wife's truck:

http://www.PetersCreekPhoto.com/photos/501526728_3dzNf-S.jpg (http://www.PetersCreekPhoto.com/photos/501526728_3dzNf-XL.jpg) http://www.PetersCreekPhoto.com/photos/501527173_vCQyT-S.jpg (http://www.PetersCreekPhoto.com/photos/501527173_vCQyT-XL.jpg)
(Click for larger images)

There's a faint, flinty aroma of fireworks in the air. Other parts of the Anchorage area got the stronger sulphur smell.

Dave J
2009-Mar-30, 03:21 AM
Earlier today, there were times on the seismic charts where there are little spikes, very regular, about every 30 second or so, for a good 30-45 minutes. Little, small, "puffs". Are these the "chugging" you all are discussing?

Real peculiar, as regular as they are...

dgavin
2009-Mar-30, 03:27 AM
If you mean the ones from just before midnight to about 130am, yes thats the Chugging signature

jonfr
2009-Mar-30, 03:55 AM
If you mean the ones from just before midnight to about 130am, yes thats the Chugging signature

What is a chugging signature exactly ? I am unfamiliar with this term. I found little on this on the internet. What I found was something about degassing of the magma, or something in that nature.

hhEb09'1
2009-Mar-30, 04:27 AM
Nice photos, Brett. I immediately recognized the second one as an attempt to replicate the BAUT flag:

AKDenise
2009-Mar-30, 07:14 AM
Earlier today, there were times on the seismic charts where there are little spikes, very regular, about every 30 second or so, for a good 30-45 minutes. Little, small, "puffs". Are these the "chugging" you all are discussing?

Real peculiar, as regular as they are...

It was 3/28 at 23:52.

When I first saw them, I thought it was a machine glitch, until the geologists made mention below:



(javascript:dm('div_Observation_2059');)2009-03-29 01:25:21 (javascript:dm('div_Observation_2059');)

The repeating earthquakes that started at 23:52 AKDT have ceased.
(javascript:dm('div_Observation_2059');)
source: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php


other sources call the "small repeating earthquakes" in volcanos - "chugging".

AKDenise
2009-Mar-30, 07:25 AM
On the pbs program tonight - "Kilauea", the geophysicist recording the "sounds" a volcano makes, also used the term "chugging."

He also discussed "infrasound", the extra low frequency sounds given off by volcanos. In the 1965 Redoubt explosion, some infrasound was heard as far away as College -near Fairbanks.

Program site:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/episodes/kilauea-mountain-of-fire/introduction/4718/

.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-30, 11:21 AM
Now the volcanoes are talking to each other:


2009-03-30 02:16:26

We are re-analyzing the event reported as an explosive eruption occurring at approximately 23:14 AKDT (7:14 UTC). An episode of stronger tremor at the volcano was in progress when the seismic signal from a M5.4 earthquake near Kodiak Island passed through the Redoubt area causing the tremor amplitude to appear to increase quickly.

Radar did show a cloud top above 20,000 ft above sea level at approximately the same time.

jonfr
2009-Mar-30, 11:28 AM
@ 07:13:05.5 UTC 30 Mars 2009 there was a Mw6.0 earthquake in the nearby area. That is not good news for the volcano. As this type of earthquake can have effect on the eruption. More info on the earthquake here (http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=current&sub=detail&id=122897).

dgavin
2009-Mar-30, 02:22 PM
Now the volcanoes are talking to each other:

USGS classified this as a non explosive out gassing event, they are not saying if it was possibly triggered by the Mag 5.4 quake near Kodiak Island, or just a coincidence.

I would say it was likely a triggered event, but this also is a good sign in a way. If a quake 590km away can trigger a small out gassing, then it means the volcano's chimney is fairly clear.

Thats also not surprising after a dozen+ eruptions in one week.

The real question is, will there be any more hydrothermally assisted explosive eruptions?

One Skunk Todd
2009-Mar-30, 05:27 PM
The hut cam is a bit gunked up but it "looks" like there is dark smoke/ash coming out right now. Not sure if dark smoke = eruption.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Redoubt_-_Hut.php

jonfr
2009-Mar-30, 08:15 PM
There appears to be a lot of ash in that picture. Along with some changes in the volcano it self.

Mount Redoubt has blow off it's top in some older eruption. However, that does not exclude a caldera formation event.

confuseatron
2009-Mar-30, 11:29 PM
From the AVO hut cam, this frame seems to have a little orange spray. Lava, or light filtering through ash, maybe? Dome leaking?

Kinda scary if its coming out somewhere else than the caldera.. afraid the side of Redoubt will fall off and it will do a Mt St Helens right into the nice webcam...

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-31, 12:44 AM
2009-03-30 16:39:48

Webcam views show a steam-rich plume that may still contain some ash. Seismicity has diminished with a only a few small discrete events observed over the last hour. An AVO gas flight has returned.

Anyone want to volunteer to go on those flights?

As Donkey would say (Shrek) :

"Me, Me, Pick Me!"

flynjack1
2009-Mar-31, 01:16 AM
Heck I was spooked just flying over Mt Vesuvius 2000 years after the fact. They would have to pay me well and give me something faster than a helicopter. Im not sure how fast the dust cloud from an errupting volcano spreads but I would guess it could be in excess of 110 knots (the speed of most helicopters at altitude).

Dave J
2009-Mar-31, 01:16 AM
From the AVO hut cam, this frame seems to have a little orange spray. Lava, or light filtering through ash, maybe? Dome leaking?

Kinda scary if its coming out somewhere else than the caldera.. afraid the side of Redoubt will fall off and it will do a Mt St Helens right into the nice webcam...


That might be a small pyroclastic flow, just below where a dome might be forming, see some smoke there nearby...real good for melting glacial ice.
I'd be curious as to how many domes have been started, then blown away/collapsed, in the last week.
I think I saw them around a Piper Navajo in some pics...nice and fast for quick bug-outs.

dgavin
2009-Mar-31, 05:58 AM
To add to DaveJ's reply.

I checked the cam at night and there is no indication of glowing magma, yet, so likely it was a pyroclastic event.

AKDenise
2009-Mar-31, 10:54 AM
AVO just posted some more photos from their overflight today. Great shots of steam, more steam, etc.....but that's what it's been today - steam plume with small amount of ash. One photo looks right into the crater.....no lava.

Best of all is the EM shots of the crystals. Did a little reading. One source says the resultant crystal is proof of convection within magma chambers. More sources discuss the different results from water with magma. Someone with more knowledge of chemistry must decipher these articles.

Regarding the earthquakes near Kodiak. Remember all the other volcanoes in the vicinity - Augustine, Novarupta/Katmai (very bad 1912 eruption), Spurr, etc. The earthquakes are in the beginning, upper layer of the subduction zone, so.....you could speculate that if the magma in the ending lower areas of the subduction zone, is being evacuated to the surface, it could be influencing what happens in the upper areas of the crust that would be plunging at a 45 degree angle to the area below the volcanos.

.

geonuc
2009-Mar-31, 10:57 AM
Anyone want to volunteer to go on those flights?

As Donkey would say (Shrek) :

"Me, Me, Pick Me!"
I'll go, even if Donkey comes along.

Swift
2009-Mar-31, 12:04 PM
From the AVO hut cam, this frame seems to have a little orange spray. Lava, or light filtering through ash, maybe? Dome leaking?

By the way confuseatron, welcome to BAUT. :D

One Skunk Todd
2009-Mar-31, 01:12 PM
To add to DaveJ's reply.

I checked the cam at night and there is no indication of glowing magma, yet, so likely it was a pyroclastic event.

I have this vague recollection that they normally turn the camera off at night to save battery power. They may be leaving it on right now though.

dgavin
2009-Mar-31, 03:09 PM
I have this vague recollection that they normally turn the camera off at night to save battery power. They may be leaving it on right now though.

True! But they always leave the last dark cam photo on the website just before it shuts down, along with the temp readings from the cam site.

Looking at the Photos from the 30th, there are some interesting things that can be discerned.

There appears to be almost no damage to the volcano's structure from the three VEI 5 type events. There there does appear to be some deformation now due to magma intrusion.

I was able to identify at least three separate venting area's.

The main one that might be coming from a new dome growth. Photos to unclear still to determine if it's a new dome, or just the old one being pushed up from below. A small one a little down the mountain from that, in the drift glacier, and one back from the dome are in the crater area.

The SEM images of the crystalline formations, some of which are evidence of magma/water interaction, seem to support the eruption model I proposed earlier. I'm not willing to say I'm right, yet, but the evidence does seem to be supporting it.

With the lack of structural damage, minimal pyroclastic events, and other odd behaviors with this eruptive sequence. I'm going out on a limb here and offer some conclusions:

This is a dome building eruptive sequence, which may last for years (or shut down relatively quickly, but I don't think that is likely). The 14+ blasts of mostly steam had the effect of clearing the volcanic chimney, allowing the activity to transition from a pressure building stage to a dome building stage without a structure altering eruptive event.

There will most likely not be a caldera forming, or mountain altering type of event at this point. The dome building will likely last a year, possibly more, with periodic ash/steam blasts that will mostly just impact air traffic.

Dave J
2009-Mar-31, 03:16 PM
I ca see a couple of things on the volcano (I think...so much stean, dust, ash...what a mess)...

The old ice canyon is much wider and straighter now, what little the pics can show. All that drainage is showing it's work. And it seems like there's more than one vent going, several different steam plumes seem visible aside from the main one.
It's a busy mountain right now, hope they get some more fly-by shots. It's hard to grasp the scale till you realise the upper crater is about a mile across. This thing is huge!
Maybe while it's "quiet" they'll chopper a crew to the hutcam too, and put in fresh batts (maybe give the lens a swipe). That would be a trip to take, wouldn't it?

dgavin
2009-Mar-31, 03:23 PM
I ca see a couple of things on the volcano (I think...so much stean, dust, ash...what a mess)...

The old ice canyon is much wider and straighter now, what little the pics can show. All that drainage is showing it's work. And it seems like there's more than one vent going, several different steam plumes seem visible aside from the main one.
It's a busy mountain right now, hope they get some more fly-by shots. It's hard to grasp the scale till you realise the upper crater is about a mile across. This thing is huge!
Maybe while it's "quiet" they'll chopper a crew to the hutcam too, and put in fresh batts (maybe give the lens a swipe). That would be a trip to take, wouldn't it?

I'd give my eye teeth for such a ride.

I was to young for St. Helen's trips, although I'll admit it was that volcano that started my interest into both vulcanology and art. I wish I still had my old drawings. I used to sit infront of the TV with a scetch pad and draw the various phases of St. Helens. I had about 75 drawings form the initial steam fumeral formation to the start of the dome building, but I enlisted in the army and parents cleaned house. When I returned from Army, never found them again.

jlhredshift
2009-Mar-31, 03:48 PM
True! But they always leave the last dark cam photo on the website just before it shuts down, along with the temp readings from the cam site.

Looking at the Photos from the 30th, there are some interesting things that can be discerned.

There appears to be almost no damage to the volcano's structure from the three VEI 5 type events. There there does appear to be some deformation now due to magma intrusion.

I was able to identify at least three separate venting area's.

The main one that might be coming from a new dome growth. Photos to unclear still to determine if it's a new dome, or just the old one being pushed up from below. A small one a little down the mountain from that, in the drift glacier, and one back from the dome are in the crater area.

The SEM images of the crystalline formations, some of which are evidence of magma/water interaction, seem to support the eruption model I proposed earlier. I'm not willing to say I'm right, yet, but the evidence does seem to be supporting it.

With the lack of structural damage, minimal pyroclastic events, and other odd behaviors with this eruptive sequence. I'm going out on a limb here and offer some conclusions:

This is a dome building eruptive sequence, which may last for years (or shut down relatively quickly, but I don't think that is likely). The 14+ blasts of mostly steam had the effect of clearing the volcanic chimney, allowing the activity to transition from a pressure building stage to a dome building stage without a structure altering eruptive event.

There will most likely not be a caldera forming, or mountain altering type of event at this point. The dome building will likely last a year, possibly more, with periodic ash/steam blasts that will mostly just impact air traffic.

It is probably a good thing that the volcano is clearing its throat rather than having a blockage;

BURP

dgavin
2009-Mar-31, 04:10 PM
It is probably a good thing that the volcano is clearing its throat rather than having a blockage;

BURP

:lol::doh:

Dave J
2009-Apr-01, 12:41 AM
Something just happened around 1610-1625 AKDT...big rumbling in the seismic data, and the hutcam view went from a pretty clear view to all hazed up in the valley, with a larger plume...maybe a dome collapse event? edit...latest camera view almost completely obscured by dust...something broke there.

jlhredshift
2009-Apr-01, 01:05 PM
Just venting: latest update


2009-04-01 04:15:03

Continuous low level emissions of steam, volcanic gases, and ash continue at Redoubt Volcano. Seismicity consists of volcanic tremor and occasional discrete earthquakes.

Please see the National Weather Service Redoubt coordination page http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php for the latest ash fall information.

dgavin
2009-Apr-01, 06:58 PM
Also from yesterdays full report: (note the bolded part)


2009-03-31 12:48:22 - Status Report

Continuous emissions of steam, volcanic gases, and minor amounts of ash continue at Redoubt Volcano, and have been visible in the Redoubt Hut web camera images throughout the day. These emissions have been generally been at low altitudes (less than 15,000 feet above sea level), but occasionally rise as high as 25,000 feet above sea level. Satellite images from this morning show a broad layer of volcanic haze extending east of the volcano over the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Matanuska-Susitna Valley. Satellite images from last night show a thermal anomaly at the vent and are possibly due to the extrusion of a lava dome in the summit crater. AVO field crews are attempting to make direct observations of the volcano today. Seismicity consists of volcanic tremor and occasional discrete earthquakes.