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View Full Version : Exploration capabilities of the movie 2001 - when? 3001?



Tucson_Tim
2009-Mar-10, 01:17 AM
The space exploration capabilities depicted in the movie 2001 have not been realized. My question is when do you think they will be realized? I'm aware that some of the technologies in the movie have been equalled or surpassed, like communications gear, computer processing power, computer displays, etc., but when do you think we will have the following in space:

- Shuttles able to ferry 50+ passengers from the Earth's surface to the space station, without the need for the passengers to wear spacesuits.

- A huge space station in LEO, with hotels, lounges, restaurants, etc.

- A shuttle capable of ferrying 50+ passengers from the space station to a moon base. Again in street clothes.

- Several very large moon bases. The American base at Clavius was also at least ten stories underground.

- An interplanetary vessel that can carry 6 astronauts to Jupiter and back.

I hate to be a pessimist but I don't see these things happening for hundreds of years. Maybe the futurists here on the board can assure me that these events and space contructions will happen sooner.

Gandalf223
2009-Mar-10, 01:40 AM
I hate to be a pessimist but I don't see these things happening for hundreds of years.

I'll take that a step further, and say never. The reality is that space travel and exploration (as seen in the movies,) would require the wealth of entire nations, and more. The best we can expect is a few small research outposts, and that not for decades. The potential benefits notwithstanding, I am finding it more and more difficult to imagine any nation being able to sustain the kind of capital investment needed to pull these things off.

Pessimist: an experienced optimist.

Murphy
2009-Mar-10, 02:08 AM
It all depends on how much effort Governments and the Public are willing to put into Space exploration / colonisation.

If they go along at a snails pace, then it might take hundreds of years. If they actually put effort and resources into it, then I'd say we could have all of those things in 50 years, or there abouts.

Though none of the Technologies you mention are beyond currently known science, and many are already quite possible with a little development.

danscope
2009-Mar-10, 03:33 AM
I'll take that a step further, and say never. The reality is that space travel and exploration (as seen in the movies,) would require the wealth of entire nations, and more. The best we can expect is a few small research outposts, and that not for decades. The potential benefits notwithstanding, I am finding it more and more difficult to imagine any nation being able to sustain the kind of capital investment needed to pull these things off.

Pessimist: an experienced optimist.

Wise, you are. The truth and the future you see. Yes, much money. Too much for such things.
Dan

marsbug
2009-Mar-10, 10:18 AM
I'd disagree strongly with never, just on generall principles, but I'd be surprised if I lived to see it. If I'm lucky I might live to see several research outposts in earth orbit at once, a small orbital space tourism industry with it's own space station and ships and, maybe, a small research station on the moon. If I did something exceptionally good in a past life I might live to see a manned mission to mars. But I will say I'd rather see a little sustainable growth that sticks than a huge leaps that don't get repeated for decades, awseome as they can be.
Manned missions to jupiter, ten storey moonbases etc... not by 2051, probably not by 2101, but maybe midway through the 22nd century. Since I won't be around to be proved wrong I'm happy to put on my amateur futurists hat and give that as a prediction.

stutefish
2009-Mar-10, 05:26 PM
Things get cheaper over time. A Danish hobbyist club has just completed a successful test of a rocket engine they built themselves. Their goal is a manned suborbital flight, something that required a nation-state when Gagarin and Shepard did it. There was a time when no nation-state in the world could amass the resources to send a probe to the moon; now several--including developing nations--have successfully deployed such probes.

Etc.

Ilya
2009-Mar-10, 06:57 PM
Stutefish, you beat me to it. As I already posted before, I have no faith in governments carrying out expensive long-term projects with no clear benefits. I expect that first manned Mars expedition will be privately funded -- and will not occur until technology (and world's total wealth) develops to the point it is within reach of a private organization. Which I estimate about 2100.

Tucson_Tim
2009-Mar-11, 01:43 AM
I know this has been discussed often and thoroughly in the past but . . .

I would prefer a large multi-national self-sufficient (or nearly so) Moon base with several hundred workers/scientists rather than several nations independently going to the Moon and Mars. You can call me a dreamer.

(I guess my first guess of 3001 for exploration capabilities shown in the movie 2001 isn't too far off the mark. Sad.)