PDA

View Full Version : Sunspots could be dissapearing!!



dirty_g
2009-Sep-05, 12:15 PM
Got this link off www.spaceweather.com. Interesting though. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm

Messier Tidy Upper
2009-Sep-05, 02:05 PM
Hmm... Just when I thought the next solar cycle (24 is it?) had started kicking in at last.

Has the Sun gone off the boil again? Is this normal at the start of a solar cycle?

I second the question here as I'd like to know too but, alas, haven't got any answers.

PS. Scrolling down the space weather site I see a nice green Sun image.

gatorain
2009-Sep-05, 04:09 PM
Either Solar maximum in 2012-2013 or entering another mini ice age..time will tell

mantiss
2009-Sep-07, 07:02 PM
Either Solar maximum in 2012-2013 or entering another mini ice age..time will tell

That's not only jumping the gun but the whole arsenal ;)
I'd suggest you observe the data for the putative ~90 years sun cycle, i.e. look at 1911-1913
:)

Argos
2009-Sep-07, 07:44 PM
Actually the second link in the OP leads to a NASA article suggesting that we may be entering a period analogous to the Maunder Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum).

mike alexander
2009-Sep-07, 08:51 PM
There would be something humorous in the discovery that a negative change in the output of the sun would require injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to avert human catastrophe.

But that's how scientific inquiry goes: new data may require new formulations. Kind of annoying, isn't it? Reminds me of John Christopher's novel The Long Winter. Or Bradbury's short story Henry IX.

Very few people have cottoned into the realization that the periods of nature don't necessarily relate to the human lifespan.

Argos
2009-Sep-07, 09:21 PM
There would be something humorous in the discovery that a negative change in the output of the sun would require injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to avert human catastrophe.

But a temporary decade-long cooling trend also has the potential to hamper the emission reduction efforts, since the public won´t be capable of telling the constant albeit relatively small greenhouse warming from the cooling resulting from diminished solar activity. Any scientific evidence of global greenhouse gas-related warming could be lost in the noise. The AGW Public Relations corps will have a field day with the seemingly contradictory message that AGW research may convey.

mike alexander
2009-Sep-08, 12:56 AM
But a temporary decade-long cooling trend also has the potential to hamper the emission reduction efforts, since the public won´t be capable of telling the constant albeit relatively small greenhouse warming from the cooling resulting from diminished solar activity. Any scientific evidence of global greenhouse gas-related warming could be lost in the noise. The AGW Public Relations corps will have a field day with the seemingly contradictory message that AGW research may convey.

I couldn't agree more! But since Man is the Rationalizing Animal, and since most people in positions of power seem to have an event horizon of 3-6 months, what are you gonna do? Any uptick in temperatures is a statistical fluke, any hint of downturn is irrefutable evidence. Plus, Great Aunt Margie just noticed it was cool last night, and it's summer. QED.

Glom
2009-Sep-08, 08:51 AM
I'm scared. I wanted global warming not global cooling. History suggests that warming is always great for human civilisation, while cooling is always bad. Stupid Sun ruining our efforts to bring about a golden age.

rommel543
2009-Sep-08, 03:26 PM
I'm not overly concerned about the possibility of a minor ice age. Being in Canada, we're used to winter. I would be curious about the effect on the tropical latitudes. Would it cause a decrease in the tropical storms and hurricanes? Also with the increased snow fall in the polar areas would it also decrease the sea levels again?

beethovenspiano
2009-Sep-08, 03:49 PM
Its interesting how this research seems to be ignored by the press...

Glom
2009-Sep-08, 03:52 PM
I'm not overly concerned about the possibility of a minor ice age. Being in Canada, we're used to winter. I would be curious about the effect on the tropical latitudes. Would it cause a decrease in the tropical storms and hurricanes? Also with the increased snow fall in the polar areas would it also decrease the sea levels again?

I was under the impression that global warming was supposed to increase the temperatures at the coldest points, leading to lower temperature differentials and in turn reducing the energy of storms (which are driven by temperature differentials). So if the process reverses, we might see the opposite?

Actually, there's probably no basis for assuming that since global warming is based on one mechanism, whereas this global cooling threat comes from another mechanism.

rommel543
2009-Sep-08, 05:15 PM
I was not talking about global warming, I was referencing the fact that hurricane grow and increase in strength with an increase in water temperature. (Ref (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070817145231.htm), ref2 (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080130130647.htm)) If an ice age was to occur it would be logical to expect that the ocean temperatures to drop as well.

Speaking of global warming though, would it help to counter the cooling effect that a solar minimum would normally cause? In fact if a solar minimum is occurring it would be an excellent time to start getting rid of the carbon build up in the atmosphere before the sun decides to shift gears and heat up again.

aurora
2009-Sep-08, 05:19 PM
But a temporary decade-long cooling trend also has the potential to hamper the emission reduction efforts, since the public won´t be capable of telling the constant albeit relatively small greenhouse warming from the cooling resulting from diminished solar activity. Any scientific evidence of global greenhouse gas-related warming could be lost in the noise. The AGW Public Relations corps will have a field day with the seemingly contradictory message that AGW research may convey.

Spaceweather.com has had a note relating to this on their home page for a few days. They have some rather interesting graphs showing impact of various things that impact climate, including solar radiation and human effects.