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View Full Version : Poll : Is the AGW real or not & can we trust CRU or not?



Messier Tidy Upper
2009-Dec-12, 01:03 PM
The reality of human induiced global warming and the CRU "climategate" leaked / hacked emails affair has been a hot topic of debate lately & I'm curious about what others think. Hope its okay to post this here because its at the intersection of science & politics and fuses these elements to some degree which muddys things further.

Some would argue its also a quasi-religious matter too & its certainly controversial -no offence meant & my apologies if this isn't something we're supposed to discuss here. Its an issue that's eating away at me and one I'm keen to discuss, preferably rationally and without too much flaming please.

I've also posted this as just a comment on a BA blog thread (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/12/09/is-it-cold-here-or-is-it-just-me/#comments as 'Plutonium being from Pluto'.)

Speaking personally, I used to be a certain believer in the idea that human C02 was causing unprecedented dangerous “global warming.” I’ve defended the Anthropogenic Global Warming concept on the BA blog before.

However, I no longer think this & am now quite uncertain over this situation and over what to believe or think on this topic.

The major factors in this are reading Prof. Ian Plimer’s book ‘Heaven & Earth’ & also hearing him speak in person and talking with him. He strikes me as a good and trustworthy bloke from personal experience.

Search on Wikipedia & you’ll find a pages on both Plimer & his book - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Plimer & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_and_Earth_(book). Yes his book been predictably criticised by some on the pro-AGW side and has its flaws but, still, it also makes a pretty strong case for the anti-AGW camp.

I’ve also spoken with and heard from a number of other skeptics from the astronomical /geological background incl. my local astronomical society. (No, they’re not trained climatologists. But these people have done a lot of study and research into climatology too or so it appears to me.)

Also the latest “climategate” scandal, which true or not, out of context or not, sure looks bad – if even half of the stuff in the CRU emails is the way its represented then its a very devastating blow against the AGW side.

Because if nothing else it has your average person on the street asking :

Can we really trust or believe what they are saying?

When it comes to science we are just NOT individually either trained or equipped to assess the competing claims or take the data for ourselves.

We need to have a certain amount of trust in the scientists that are telling us some very alarming things and saying we must take very painful and costly measures that will or could make our lives much worse and poorer.

If one side of this debate looks “dodgy” – & right now the pro-Anthropogenic Global Warming side does – to me & many others – then it is not going to be seen as credible.

I do think we need a full thorough and high-level investigation and accountability here. Lets get everything out in the open and public – please.

I don’t claim to be an expert or to even know more than a just a few things about this issue but it is one that affects or could effect everyone.

Also the line that “1998 was the hottest year and the world hasn’t got any hotter since” does seem a strong argument against AGW theory. Yes, you can talk “El nino, exceptional year” & so forth but really .. The worlds meant to be getting hotter and C02 is increasing all the time and … over ten years ago is still the hottest year ever recorded!? Come on! Maybe its me but something sure smells “wrong” there.

There’s a lot of politics mixed in here from both sides and the science suffers as a result.

There’s a lot of name-calling & talking past each other from *both* sides.

Honestly, I don’t know what to think anymore but I am a lot more dubious and far less sold on the AGW idea and the Climatologists arguing it.

That’s my personal view of things anyhow for whatever good it is. Now what do you folks think?

PS. I’ve been told about the ‘Realclimate’ website and that its a good site worth examining this with – but also told that they are a lobby group implicated in the Climategate emails. So can I trust them? Are they reliable or too partisan here? Afraid, I’m not sure anymore.

- StevoR (aka Plutonium being from Pluto on the BA blog.)

HenrikOlsen
2009-Dec-12, 09:06 PM
How in the name of all thinking creatures do you think this is something that can be handled by polling?

Swift
2009-Dec-12, 09:18 PM
I've closed this thread.

We already have a very long standing thread on AGW in Science & Technology, as well as a separate thread on the CRU e-mails. Please take this discussion to one of those two threads.