Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

[Roger E. Moore]

Now that is odd, CNN also says SARS killed 774 and infected 8,098. Beats me.

[Copernicus]

Generally a bad idea to give antibiotics to "prevent" bacterial infection - you just end up with a resistant strain causing the infection, and contribute to the global phenomenon of antibiotic resistance.
Instead: a high index of suspicion, early sputum samples, a "best guess" antibiotic based on microscopy (which in the old days we used to do almost literally at the bedside), then an appropriate antibiotic based on the culture and sensitivities report, which takes a couple of days.

Grant Hutchison

New study that inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions do happen and do happen often. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...criptions.html 'No clear rationale' for 45% of Medicaid patients' antibiotic prescriptions

[Jens]

Now that is odd, CNN also says SARS killed 774 and infected 8,098. Beats me.

I think the discrepancy is that the higher figures are total figures, so including Hong Kong, whereas the figure of 5,000 or so is just in China. It's interesting that the mortality rate was much higher in Hong Kong than China. I think it must be a reporting issue.

But apparently more people have been infected by the new coronavirus than by SARS.

[Copernicus]

The coronavirus death rate is going up about 20 percent a day. If there are 425 total deaths today then in 10 days 2631 deaths. In 20 days there will be 16300, in 30 days it will be 100,844, in 40 days 624,000, in 50 days 3.9 million, in 60 days it will be 24 million. In 75 days it would be 378 milion people. Hopefully someone finds cures.

[Roger E. Moore]

CNN: 426 dead, 20,000+ (or 19,000+) infected. "The health authority said 10,990 patients have been hospitalized in Hubei, including 576 who are in critical condition."

BBC: "The mortality rate for the new coronavirus is about 2.1%, currently far lower than the 9.6% of SARS."

[Van Rijn]

The coronavirus death rate is going up about 20 percent a day. If there are 425 total deaths today then in 10 days 2631 deaths. In 20 days there will be 16300, in 30 days it will be 100,844, in 40 days 624,000, in 50 days 3.9 million, in 60 days it will be 24 million. In 75 days it would be 378 milion people. Hopefully someone finds cures.

Are you being serious?

I think you need to check your assumptions. It looks like you’re assuming an infected population greater than the number of people on the planet at the end there.

[Jens]

Are you being serious?

I think you need to check your assumptions. It looks like you’re assuming an infected population greater than the number of people on the planet at the end there.

Yes, and it's also wrong, I think, to assume that the whole world's population will get infected and that 2% of the world's population will die. I think it will spread easily in highly populated areas, say downtown cities, but there are lots of people living in sparsely populated places who don't come into really close contact with other people that much, and if it really starts spreading outside of Japan, schools will start getting closed and stuff like that, which will reduce the contagiousness.

[a1call]

Not having a medical degree, I won't know the answer to the following question unless I ask:
Is there anyway to isolate the antibodies from people who have recovered and create vaccines using them?
Thank you for any clarification.

[Jens]

Not having a medical degree, I won't know the answer to the following question unless I ask:
Is there anyway to isolate the antibodies from people who have recovered and create vaccines using them?
Thank you for any clarification.

I may be wrong, but I think the answer to that is that yes, you can, but generally for a person with a healthy immune system it is more efficient to inject an antigen and have the body produce its own antibodies than to actually inject antibodies. I would guess it's a lot more expensive and has side effects. But I think it's done with people who have impaired immune systems.

[Copernicus]

Are you being serious?

I think you need to check your assumptions. It looks like you’re assuming an infected population greater than the number of people on the planet at the end there.

Of course one cannot predict exact outcomes. Too many variables. I did not assume that people would self quarantine, which is likely to happen. Isolation may help, but this thing has spread all over China by now. Someone may find a cure. If the death rate is 2 percent only a max of 150 million would die, but 150 million deaths would lead to other complications. Supposedly 50 million died from Spanish influenza, which is equivalent to about 200 million with today's world population.

[a1call]

I may be wrong,

I think you rarely are if ever Jens.
Thanks for the clarification.

I found the following after posting:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_immunity

Artificially acquired passive immunity is a short-term immunization achieved by the transfer of antibodies, which can be administered in several forms; as human or animal blood plasma or serum, as pooled human immunoglobulin for intravenous (IVIG) or intramuscular (IG) use, as high-titer human IVIG or IG from immunized donors or from donors recovering from the disease, and as monoclonal antibodies (MAb). Passive transfer is used to prevent disease or used prophylactically in the case of immunodeficiencydiseases, such as hypogammaglobulinemia.^[11][12] It is also used in the treatment of several types of acute infection, and to treat poisoning.^[2] Immunity derived from passive immunization lasts for a few weeks to three to four months.^[13][14]There is also a potential risk for hypersensitivity reactions, and serum sickness, especially from gamma globulin of non-human origin.^[8]Passive immunity provides immediate protection, but the body does not develop memory, therefore the patient is at risk of being infected by the same pathogen later unless they acquire active immunity or vaccination.^[8]

[Van Rijn]

Of course one cannot predict exact outcomes. Too many variables. I did not assume that people would self quarantine, which is likely to happen. Isolation may help, but this thing has spread all over China by now.

For certain values of “all over.” That is, I would be very surprised if it achieved anywhere near a 100% infection rate in China, which you seem to be assuming. 1% would be more plausible. I am very doubtful that public health measures would be so completely ineffective, even in dense populations.

It is possible that it could turn out to be extremely serious, but I don’t see mich reason to do the chicken little routine just yet.

[Copernicus]

For certain values of “all over.” That is, I would be very surprised if it achieved anywhere near a 100% infection rate in China, which you seem to be assuming. 1% would be more plausible. I am very doubtful that public health measures would be so completely ineffective, even in dense populations.

It is possible that it could turn out to be extremely serious, but I don’t see mich reason to do the chicken little routine just yet.

The first death from corona virus was about January 17th and China closed Wuhan within 2 weeks. How is that not shocking beyond imagination.

[a1call]

The first death from corona virus was about January 17th and China closed Wuhan within 2 weeks. How is that not shocking beyond imagination.

I think it's more like within 5 or 6 days. I think 3 cities were quarantined on January 22nd or 23rd.
Going by an old man's memory here, so corrections are welcome.

[Noclevername]

The first death from corona virus was about January 17th and China closed Wuhan within 2 weeks. How is that not shocking beyond imagination.

A government's overreaction to a new deadly infection is not that shocking. It happens all the time, just look at the overblown fears over Ebola.