It seems odd, given how many there were before 1604, that we haven't had one since 1604.
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It seems odd, given how many there were before 1604, that we haven't had one since 1604.
It seems that there were two really big ones in the 11th century, and then two really big ones in the 17th century. So I think that as long as we get two big ones sometime in the next two centuries, there won't be a statistical aberration. There was one recently, 1987A, but not as bright as those earlier ones. I think that if Betelgeuse goes off in the next couple of hundred years that will partly make up for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by parallaxicality
From a previous thread, the one in 1054 (now the Crab Nebula) was perhaps bright enough to be barely visible as a star before the event, and perhaps not even that bright. We don't need it to be Betelgeuse.
There are some advertisements on this site, but here's a list of the top ten candidates to be SN that we can see easily: https://astronimate.com/list/next-star-go-supernova/
I think we are due for one, but given the essentially random nature from our perspective, that means that we could have one tomorrow, or a couple centuries from now.