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Thread: How long until we have colonize Mars?

  1. #901
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    Red wine for a red planet!
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

  2. #902
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    Flying around the red planet.

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.02083

    Attitude Control of an Inflatable Sailplane for Mars Exploration

    Adrien Bouskela, Aman Chandra, Jekan Thangavelautham, Sergey Shkarayev (Submitted on 6 Feb 2019)

    Exploration of Mars has been made possible using a series of landers, rovers and orbiters. The HiRise camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has captured high-resolution images covering large tracts of the surface. However, orbital images lack the depth and rich detail obtained from in-situ exploration. Rovers such as Mars Science Laboratory and upcoming Mars 2020 carry state-of-the-art science laboratories to perform in-situ exploration and analysis. However, they can only cover a small area of Mars through the course of their mission. A critical capability gap exists in our ability to image, provide services and explore large tracts of the surface of Mars required for enabling a future human mission. A promising solution is to develop a reconnaissance sailplane that travels tens to hundreds of kilometers per sol. The aircraft would be equipped with imagers that provide that in-situ depth of field, with coverage comparable to orbital assets such as MRO. A major challenge is that the Martian carbon dioxide atmosphere is thin, with a pressure of 1% of Earth at sea level. To compensate, the aircraft needs to fly at high-velocities and have sufficiently large wing area to generate the required lift. Inflatable wings are an excellent choice as they have the lowest mass and can be used to change shape (morph) depending on aerodynamic or con-trol requirements. In this paper, we present our design of an inflatable sail-plane capable of deploying from a 12U CubeSat platform. A pneumatic de-ployment mechanism ensures highly compact stowage volumes and minimizes complexity.
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  3. #903
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    I don't think "bolide" is the right term, but whatever. Hit Mars with a big enough rock, what do you get?

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.07666

    The environmental effects of very large bolide impacts on early Mars explored with a hierarchy of numerical models

    Martin Turbet, Cédric Gillmann, François Forget, Baptiste Baudin, Ashley Palumbo, James Head, Özgür Karatekin (Submitted on 20 Feb 2019)

    We use a hierarchy of numerical models (a 3-D Global Climate Model, a 1-D radiative-convective model and a 2-D Mantle Dynamics model) to explore the environmental effects of very large impacts on the atmosphere, surface and interior of early Mars. Using a combination of 1-D and 3-D climate simulations, we show that the environmental effects of the largest impact events recorded on Mars are characterized by: (i) a short impact-induced warm period; (ii) a low amount of hydrological cycling of water; (iii) deluge-style precipitation; and (iv) precipitation patterns that are uncorrelated with the observed regions of valley networks. We show that the impact-induced stable runaway greenhouse state predicted by Segura et al. 2012 is physically inconsistent. We confirm the results of Segura et al. 2008 and Urata & Toon 2013 that water ice clouds can significantly extend the duration of the post-impact warm period, and even for cloud coverage lower than predicted in Ramirez & Kasting 2017. However, the range of cloud microphysical properties for which this scenario works is very narrow. Using 2-D Mantle Dynamics simulations we find that large impacts can raise the near-surface internal heat flux up to several hundreds of mW/m 2 (i.e. up to ∼ 10 times the ambient flux) for several millions years at the edges of the impact crater. However, such internal heat flux is insufficient to keep the martian surface above the melting point of water. Our numerical results support the prediction of Palumbo & Head 2018 that very large impact-induced rainfall could have caused degradation of craters and formed smooth plains, potentially erasing much of the previously visible morphological surface history. Such hot rainfalls may have also led to the formation of aqueous alteration products on Noachian-aged terrains.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  4. #904
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    We almost saw a comet strike not long ago on Mars. Just as well I suppose.

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    Source of methane in Martian atmosphere has been found... and it's east of Gale Crater.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-04-scient...hane-mars.html

    Scientists find likely source of methane on Mars
    by Patrick Galey

    The mystery of methane on Mars may finally be solved as scientists Monday confirmed the presence of the life-indicating gas on the Red Planet as well as where it might have come from. In the 15 years since a European probe reported traces of the gas in the Martian atmosphere, debate has raged over the accuracy of the readings showing methane, which on Earth is produced by simple lifeforms.

    ...Now an international team of experts have compared observations from two separate spacecraft, taken just one day apart in 2013, to find independent proof of methane on our neighbouring planet. Furthermore, they conducted two parallel experiments to determine the most likely source of methane on Mars to be an ice sheet east of Gale Crater—itself long assumed to be a dried up lake.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  6. #906
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    Still working on the Mars survival problem at Purdue U.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-04-survive-mars.html

    How would you survive on Mars?
    by Brian Huchel, Purdue University, 4/24/2019

    The Resilient ExtraTerrestrial Habitats Institute is working to ensure that the first long-term settlement on other planetary bodies are safe from hazards such as a meteoroid colliding with the moon or violent sandstorms on Mars. Shirley Dyke, head of Purdue University's RETH Institute, said she noticed that the habitats on other planets portrayed on TV don't look realistic. In order to keep occupants alive, a habitat system on another planet would have to be much more sophisticated, even smart.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  7. #907
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    Take a moment and picture this very thing... happening on Mars around the first human settlement there. It's not only possible but maybe inevitable. Garbage-collecting robots like a certain Disney character?

    https://phys.org/news/2019-05-tonnes...h-everest.html
    Three tonnes of rubbish collected from Everest
    May 1, 2019

    A dedicated clean-up team sent to Mount Everest has collected three tonnes of garbage in its first two weeks, officials said Wednesday, in an ambitious plan to clean the world's highest rubbish dump. Decades of commercial mountaineering have left the pristine mountain polluted as an increasing number of big-spending climbers pay little attention to the ugly footprint they leave behind.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Garbage-collecting robots like a certain Disney character?
    Should be standard on all settled planets and moons.

    And although outside the scope of this thread, Earth.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  9. #909
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaDeR View Post
    Few hundred years.
    why do you want to go to mars massively?

    exploring/taking images? 6-wheels robots do it for us - and they don't even need air to breathe...

    meeting John Carter of Mars?

    there is a lot of sand but no petroleum... i'd expect to be payed a lot of money to go there...
    Last edited by Barabino; 2019-May-21 at 01:09 PM.

  10. #910
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    Motivations are, IMO, not really the issue. You already have lots of people who want to go to live there, for a large variety of reasons, when it's nearly impossible. As the journey and stay become more technically feasible finding volunteers should be no problem.

    If you don't want to go, stay home. Problem solved.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  11. #911
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    Will we recognize Mars colonists as human after a few generations? Mutations on the red planet.

    https://futurism.com/mars-colonists-mutation-evolution
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  12. #912
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Will we recognize Mars colonists as human after a few generations? Mutations on the red planet.

    https://futurism.com/mars-colonists-mutation-evolution
    Most mutations are harmful though. They'd mainly inherit health problems; Look for a lot of deafness and dwarfism.

    Better to develop a largely underground society, trips to the surface would be timed and developing agoraphobia is a serious concern. The tall domed Martian cities of popular imagination most likely won't be happening; the surface is for greenhouses, but not people.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    WRT evolution on Mars.

    I think before people ever settled any planet (or space), issues related to high radiation and mutation rates would be resolved.

    cheers,

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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    I think before people ever settled any planet (or space), issues related to high radiation and mutation rates would be resolved.
    We have trouble doing that here on Earth. See the following for data on naturally radioactive places we inhabit here.

    ht tps://web.archive.org/web/
    20070623020422/http://www.tais
    hitsu.or.jp/radiation/index-e.html

    NOTE: Reply with quote to this entry, note the spaces and breaks I added to the link, copy the link, correct it, then search. The word-blocking function of this site prevents the link from forming.

    LATER NOTE: screen captures included.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2019-May-21 at 06:48 PM.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  15. #915
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    This looked good to me; I like the idea of planting a microbial colony instead of single creatures or plants on Mars.

    http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/abs/2017CTGeo...6....1Z

    Applicability of cryoconite consortia of microorganisms and glacier-dwelling animals in astrobiological studies

    Zawierucha, Krzysztof; Ostrowska, Marta; Kolicka, Malgorzata
    Contemporary Trends in Geoscience, Volume 6, Issue 1, pp.1-10
    Publication Date: 06/2017

    For several years it has been of interest to astrobiologists to focus on Earth's glaciers as a habitat that can be similar to glaciers on other moons and planets. Microorganisms on glaciers form consortia - cryoconite granules (cryoconites). They are granular/spherical mineral particles connected with archaea, cyanobacteria, heterotrophic bacteria, algae, fungi, and micro animals (mainly Tardigrada and Rotifera). Cryophilic organisms inhabiting glaciers have been studied in different aspects: from taxonomy, ecology and biogeography, to searching of biotechnological potentials and physiological strategies to survive in extreme glacial habitats. However, they have never been used in astrobiological experiments. The main aim of this paper is brief review of literature and supporting assumptions that cryoconite granules and microinvertebrates on glaciers, are promising models in astrobiology for looking for analogies and survival strategies in terms of icy planets and moons. So far, astrobiological research have been conducted on single strains of prokaryotes or microinvertebrates but never on a consortium of them. Due to the hypothetical similarity of glaciers on the Earth to those on other planets these cryoconites consortia of microorganisms and glacier microinvertebrates may be applied in astrobiological experiments instead of the limno-terrestrial ones used currently. Those consortia and animals have qualities to use them in such studies and they may be the key to understanding how organisms are able to survive, reproduce and remain active at low temperatures.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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  16. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7cscb View Post
    WRT evolution on Mars.

    I think before people ever settled any planet (or space), issues related to high radiation and mutation rates would be resolved.

    cheers,
    Depends on the time scale of when settlement happens. And on how quickly, or if, we actually solve the physical and genetic effects of chronic ionizing radiation exposure. I don't know of anyone actively attempting either at present, grand but nebulous proposals aside.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    Water ice discovered beneath north pole of Mars, massive amounts of it.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-05-massiv...ry-window.html
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  18. #918
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    Microbes in Martian dust? NASA is preparing for that possibility.

    https://www.space.com/microbes-marti...net-crews.html
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  19. #919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Microbes in Martian dust? NASA is preparing for that possibility.

    https://www.space.com/microbes-marti...net-crews.html
    I'm not sure what the problem for crews would be there. Are they afraid of human infection? From microbes adapted to thrive in Martian surface conditions? Kinds like fearing sharks in the desert IMO.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  20. #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I'm not sure what the problem for crews would be there. Are they afraid of human infection? From microbes adapted to thrive in Martian surface conditions? Kinds like fearing sharks in the desert IMO.
    I guess the mission designers are not as confident in their knowledge as you are.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I guess the mission designers are not as confident in their knowledge as you are.
    *Knock knock*
    "Landshark!"
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  22. #922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    *Knock knock*
    "Landshark!"
    Sorry, that went over my head. Could you (or somebody else) fill me in on what that comment was about? I know the skit from SNL, I just don't understand what it has to do with my post.
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Sorry, that went over my head. Could you (or somebody else) fill me in on what that comment was about? I know the skit from SNL, I just don't understand what it has to do with my post.
    In post # 919 I said:
    Kinda like fearing sharks in the desert IMO.
    That's what I was referring to.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  24. #924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    I'm not sure what the problem for crews would be there. Are they afraid of human infection? From microbes adapted to thrive in Martian surface conditions? Kinds like fearing sharks in the desert IMO.
    Microbes can have adverse effects on human health without infecting them, such as by simply growing in the dark, moist areas of the body, like alveoli, or by emitting toxic compounds. They can also affect equipment and supplies, like the terrestrial microbes that contaminate jet fuel.
    Information about American English usage here and here. Floating point issues? Please read this before posting.

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    Actually they can't: "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.



  25. #925
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    Quote Originally Posted by ravens_cry View Post
    If we actually funded gave it funding, I bet we could do it in 50-100 years. The chance of such a think happening are more or less nil unfortunately.
    Don't flame me, but in the '70s the scare of world overpopulation was much more actual...

    u633.jpg

    now we use birth control pills and condoms routinely since early teen age : a lot of adult people don't even want to make children at all... tsk tsk...
    Last edited by Barabino; 2019-May-26 at 01:12 PM.

  26. #926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackhole View Post
    How long do you think it will take humans to colonize Mars? For the sake of discussion I will define 'colonize' as the point in time at which a human lands on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life. Do you think humans have the capacity to build an infrastructure on Mars that is reliable enough for a human to live out the rest of their natural life? If yes, how long do you think it will take us to accomplish this feat?

    A prerequisite for colonizing Mars is to first land on Mars (although in Theory these two events could happen simultaneously). So, I will make this a two part question:

    1. How long will it take us to land a human on Mars?
    2. How long thereafter will the first person land on Mars to live out the rest of their natural life?

    Bonus question: Assuming we do land a human on Mars, which organization/agency/government do you believe will be the first to accomplish this feat? Chinese Space Program? SpaceX? Nasa? ESA? Roscosmos? Bill Nye the science guy?
    No real way to know when the first landing will be. But I think once someone is seen as close to a Mars landing, like is actually assembling the transport craft, it'll open the floodgates of a new Space Race as everyone scrambles to beat the contender (especially if it's a private billionaire). No government wants to admit one guy can do something they can't.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

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    If we're going to colonize Mars, we'd best understand the local weather. Here's the 2018 Global Dust Storm with color photos & maps.

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.00963

    The onset and growth of the 2018 Martian Global Dust Storm

    Agustín Sánchez-Lavega, Teresa del Río-Gaztelurrutia, Jorge Hernández-Bernal, Marc Delcroix (Submitted on 3 Jun 2019)

    We analyze the onset and initial expansion of the 2018 Martian Global Dust Storm (GDS 2018) using ground-based images in the visual range. This is the first case of a confirmed GDS initiating in the Northern Hemisphere. A dusty area extending about 1.4x10e5 km^2 and centered at latitude +31.7° ± 1.8° and west longitude 18° ± 5°W in Acidalia Planitia was captured on 30 and 31 May 2018 (Ls = 184.9°). From 1 to 8 June, daily image series showed the storm expanding southwards along the Acidalia corridor with velocities of 5 m/s, and simultaneously progressing eastwards and westwards with horizontal velocities ranging from 5 to 40 m/s. By 8 June the dust reached latitude -55° and later penetrated in the South polar region, whereas in the North the dust progression stopped at latitude +46°. We compare the onset and expansion stage of this GDS with the previous confirmed storms.

    [REM: Remember The Martian?]
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  28. #928
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    If we're going to colonize Mars, we'll probably die on the way there unless we block the radiation. The ESA is not optimistic about this.

    https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...-dangerous-esa
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
    — Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

  29. #929
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    If we're going to colonize Mars, we'll probably die on the way there unless we block the radiation. The ESA is not optimistic about this.

    https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...-dangerous-esa
    That's wildly inaccurate. Without shielding, the radiation accumulated during a long, minimal-energy transit there and back means a few percent increase in lifetime cancer risk, and would just barely be above the recommended career dose limit. The original ESA article even provides measurements that back this up ("Recent data from ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter showed that on a six-month journey to the Red Planet an astronaut could be exposed to at least 60% of the total radiation dose limit recommended for their entire career."), though it ignores them and chooses to exaggerate the danger instead.

  30. #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
    That's wildly inaccurate. Without shielding, the radiation accumulated during a long, minimal-energy transit there and back means a few percent increase in lifetime cancer risk, and would just barely be above the recommended career dose limit. The original ESA article even provides measurements that back this up ("Recent data from ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter showed that on a six-month journey to the Red Planet an astronaut could be exposed to at least 60% of the total radiation dose limit recommended for their entire career."), though it ignores them and chooses to exaggerate the danger instead.
    Here is a link to the ESA itself on this topic.

    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Hu...rs_exploration
    31 May 2019

    QUOTES: An astronaut on a mission to Mars could receive radiation doses up to 700 times higher than on our planet – a major showstopper for the safe exploration of our Solar System. A team of European experts is working with ESA to protect the health of future crews on their way to the Moon and beyond.

    Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere protect us from the constant bombardment of galactic cosmic rays – energetic particles that travel at close to the speed of light and penetrate the human body.

    Cosmic radiation could increase cancer risks during long duration missions. Damage to the human body extends to the brain, heart and the central nervous system and sets the stage for degenerative diseases. A higher percentage of early-onset cataracts have been reported in astronauts.

    “One day in space is equivalent to the radiation received on Earth for a whole year,” explains physicist Marco Durante, who studies cosmic radiation on Earth.

    Marco points out that most of the changes in the astronauts’ gene expression are believed to be a result of radiation exposure, according to the recent NASA’s Twins study. This research showed DNA damage in astronaut Scott Kelly compared to his identical twin and fellow astronaut Mark Kelly, who remained on Earth.

    A second source of space radiation comes from unpredictable solar particle events that deliver high doses of radiation in a short period of time, leading to ‘radiation sickness’ unless protective measures are taken.

    “The real problem is the large uncertainty surrounding the risks. We don’t understand space radiation very well and the long-lasting effects are unknown,” explains Marco who is also part of an ESA team formed to investigate radiation.
    There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
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