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Thread: SpaceX

  1. #3001
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
    I bring them up because they're counterexamples to your claim that SpaceX is wasting money. Building and testing prototypes is not a waste of money. Spending engineering hours avoiding prototyping until you can build a high-fidelity test article that you're 99.9999% sure won't fail messily doesn't save money or time. That's what you do when you're pathologically afraid of failure and willing to spend years and billions of dollars and wind up saddled with an inferior end product that's too expensive to fix if it means avoiding or postponing failure, and it's likely to lead in the end to extremely expensive failures like the Starliner demo flight, or the Shuttle Challenger and Columbia flights, on top of greatly inflated development costs.
    Where did I make such a claim? My questions was
    I understand the labelling of different test designs, what I don't get is to start on a new design before proving the previous design is either proven or disproven.
    This battling between us has in my opinion gone far enough. You believe that SpaceX is doing a good (my interpretation) job I question the procedures. This will be my last comment on this particular issue. Comment if you must.

  2. #3002
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
    I bring them up because they're counterexamples to your claim that SpaceX is wasting money. Building and testing prototypes is not a waste of money. Spending engineering hours avoiding prototyping until you can build a high-fidelity test article that you're 99.9999% sure won't fail messily doesn't save money or time. That's what you do when you're pathologically afraid of failure and willing to spend years and billions of dollars and wind up saddled with an inferior end product that's too expensive to fix if it means avoiding or postponing failure, and it's likely to lead in the end to extremely expensive failures like the Starliner demo flight, or the Shuttle Challenger and Columbia flights, on top of greatly inflated development costs.
    Exactly you can't very well judge the effectiveness of SpaceX's approach unless you are comparing it to other approaches. As it stands it seems there's plenty of reason to suppose that the SpaceX approach is quicker and more cost effective. Not only does it seem to be quicker but it means that they can create something that works and does the job its intended for, allowing it to be put to use and then refined into a 'perfect' version with time and operational experience as happened with the Falcon 9.

  3. #3003
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    Where did I make such a claim? My questions was
    This battling between us has in my opinion gone far enough. You believe that SpaceX is doing a good (my interpretation) job I question the procedures. This will be my last comment on this particular issue. Comment if you must.
    But how can you question the procedures unless you put them in context and compare them to the alternatives to determine if them one gives better results?

  4. #3004
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    New Boca Chica NOTAM (NOtice To Air Men) from the FAA,

    SFC (surface) to 16,000 feet (~4877 meters)

    https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_0_1466.html

    FDC 0/1466 ZHU TX..AIRSPACE BROWNSVILLE, TX..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 260124N/0970742W TO 255818N/0970742W TO 255818N/0971108W TO 260124N/0971108W TO 260124N/0970742W SFC-16000FT TO PROVIDE A SAFE ENVIROMENT FOR SPACE LAUNCH AND REENTRY OPERATIONS PURSUANT TO 14 CFR SECTION 91.143. SPACEX ARE AUTH IN THE AIRSPACE. SPACEX TELEPHONE 321-361-7062 IS IN CHARGE OF THE OPERATION. HOUSTON /ZHU/ ARTCC TELEPHONE 281-230-5560 IS THE FAA CDN FACILITY. 2005181100-2005181900
    Edit: Updated FAA NOTAM

    May 16 (tomorrow) a static fire, May 18 a hop.

    FDC 0/1466 - TX..AIRSPACE BROWNSVILLE, TX..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 260124N/0970742W TO 255818N/0970742W TO 255818N/0971108W TO 260124N/0971108W TO 260124N/0970742W SFC-16000FT TO PROVIDE A SAFE ENVIROMENT FOR SPACE LAUNCH AND REENTRY OPERATIONS PURSUANT TO 14 CFR SECTION 91.143. SPACEX ARE AUTH IN THE AIRSPACE. SPACEX TELEPHONE 321-361-7062 IS IN CHARGE OF THE OPERATION. HOUSTON /ZHU/ ARTCC TELEPHONE 281-230-5560 IS THE FAA CDN FACILITY. 18 MAY 11:00 2020 UNTIL 18 MAY 19:00 2020. CREATED: 15 MAY 21:15 2020
    Last edited by docmordrid; 2020-May-16 at 03:30 AM.

  5. #3005
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    I hope they test it during daylight hours, so the flare doesn't obscure the firing like last time.

  6. #3006
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    Quote Originally Posted by bknight View Post
    I hope they test it during daylight hours, so the flare doesn't obscure the firing like last time.
    They don't ever seem to do that. Maybe something to do with road closures? I'd expect the hop at least will be daylight.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  7. #3007
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    Not much is going to get done today! Thunderstorms set off a massive fire on South Padre Island, the Gulf Pointe Condominiums being destroyed. Looks like every fire department in the Rio Grande Valley is fighting this thing.

    https://www.brownsvilleherald.com/20...-padre-island/

  8. #3008
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    Quote Originally Posted by docmordrid View Post
    30X steel was said to arrive for SN-06 or SN-07.

    Tesla will also need it for Cybertruck, which could be the basis of SpaceX's Moon/Mars surface vehicles. That things going to have some crazy entry/departure angles & ground clearance.
    Maybe one more reason to have Tesla in Texas? Or would that cost too much?

    I wish Elon all the best.

    Something I was thinking about—Starship seems to have a central tune in the upper decks.
    A plain tube is fine for zero gee, but I wonder if a combination elevator surrounded by a spiral staircase might be looked at.
    The elevator car would be open and rotate as it rises/descends—so if it is stuck, you just have to step outside.
    The door slides open inside to protect fingers.
    Last edited by publiusr; 2020-May-17 at 06:51 AM.

  9. #3009
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    I'd expect an elevator platform - a fairly light and and mostly off the shelf build.

    Schedule updates

    Michael Baylor @nextspaceflight
    SpaceX's next launch will have crew onboard. The Starlink launch is in fact now postponed until after Demo-2 due to not enough time to turnaround OCISLY.

    JRTI still has several weeks of trials ahead of it before it will be ready. https://twitter.com/SpaceXFleet/stat...56311539658756
    |
    Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com @SpaceXFleet
    GO Quest is leaving Cape Fear and has set a destination of Cape Canaveral with an ETA of Tuesday 19th.

    The Starlink launch might be canceled. Rough seas are forecasted for the 19th and they cannot delay further without conflicting with DM-2 recovery.

    Wait for SpaceX to confirm.
    |
    Michael Baylor @nextspaceflight
    Yes, was counting operational launches in this tally. Still a chance of a Starship hop before Demo-2.

    https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/...06774062354432

  10. #3010
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    Someone call classic space: a launch schedule limited by turn around time of a support vessel, not of the launcher.
    With sufficient thrust, water towers fly just fine.

  11. #3011
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    I've been thinking SpaceX should postpone that Starlink Launch anyhow. It was supposed to have been a week or two ago but once it got delayed it seemed much too close to a far more important (to me) event.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  12. #3012
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    JAXA (Japan) patch for Crew-1 (aka US Crew Vehicle 1 or USCV-1), the first operational Commercial Crew mission. If all goes well with DM-2 it should launch about August.

    IMG_20200518_111613.jpg

    https://twitter.com/AlteredJamie/sta...66305928613888

  13. #3013
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    Mr. Musk still wants 10,000 nuclear missiles to terraform Mars or else get rid of the "Red Martian" threat to Earth, something like that.

    https://www.inverse.com/innovation/e...terraform-mars
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  14. #3014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Mr. Musk still wants 10,000 nuclear missiles to terraform Mars or else get rid of the "Red Martian" threat to Earth, something like that.

    https://www.inverse.com/innovation/e...terraform-mars
    Wait a minute, wait a minute... Is Musk saying he is developing/building these nuclear missiles himself?

    "If briefly analyzed, certain plans put forward by SpaceX simply cannot be implemented taking into account the short-term technological developments. For example, for a thermonuclear explosion on Mars’ pole, one of the plans of SpaceX, to have tangible results, more than 10,000 launches of missiles that can carry the largest payloads and are being developed now are needed."
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  15. #3015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Mr. Musk still wants 10,000 nuclear missiles to terraform Mars or else get rid of the "Red Martian" threat to Earth, something like that.

    https://www.inverse.com/innovation/e...terraform-mars
    It’s nonsense, so there isn’t much point getting into it. Terraforming Mars would be a complex, very energy intensive and very long term project, requiring permanent technological intervention. Throwing some nukes at it isn’t going to do the job.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

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  16. #3016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    It’s nonsense, so there isn’t much point getting into it.
    Except that it's Elon Musk talking about it, who is mega-rich and once launched his own car into outer space. I have a little concern.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  17. #3017
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Wait a minute, wait a minute... Is Musk saying he is developing/building these nuclear missiles himself?

    "If briefly analyzed, certain plans put forward by SpaceX simply cannot be implemented taking into account the short-term technological developments. For example, for a thermonuclear explosion on Mars’ pole, one of the plans of SpaceX, to have tangible results, more than 10,000 launches of missiles that can carry the largest payloads and are being developed now are needed."
    I'm pretty sure that's just an inept attempt to say "current or near-future thermonuclear devices".


    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Except that it's Elon Musk talking about it, who is mega-rich and once launched his own car into outer space. I have a little concern.
    No, it's Alexander Bloshenko of Roscosmos. Musk just said "No problem".

    And on the scale of terraforming efforts...that really wouldn't be a problem. Probably easier than alternatives like bombarding the poles with chunks of asteroids. Yes, it's a big number...terraforming's not a weekend project.

  18. #3018
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjameshuff View Post
    And on the scale of terraforming efforts...that really wouldn't be a problem. Probably easier than alternatives like bombarding the poles with chunks of asteroids. Yes, it's a big number...terraforming's not a weekend project.
    Fusion bombs are probably more useful for moving asteroids than using them directly, as something of a force multiplier. If used directly, even thousands of gigaton class bombs wouldn’t add that much energy to the environment. Large asteroids would be better. However, very large permanent space based reflectors and greenhouse gas factories would be more useful for warming the environment, but even that is only of limited use unless there is significant gas available to be released (which isn’t established). For terraforming, very likely an even bigger project would be needed to import a lot of gas to Mars. The timescales, too, would be hundreds to thousands of years (especially if you want breathable air).

    I like Musk for his rocket work, but his terraforming comments get into fantasy territory.
    Last edited by Van Rijn; 2020-May-19 at 04:51 AM.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

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  19. #3019
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    Mars atmosphere has been diminishing because there's no magnetosphere to speak of, so the solar wind "blows" it away. A NASA proposal is to place a large superconducting magnet at Sun-Mars L!. This would divert the solar wind around Mars, preserving what atmosphere's there and whatever terraformers add to it.

    https://phys.org/news/2017-03-nasa-m...tmosphere.html

    1-nasaproposes.jpg

  20. #3020
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    Quote Originally Posted by docmordrid View Post
    Mars atmosphere has been diminishing because there's no magnetosphere to speak of, so the solar wind "blows" it away.
    That’s one loss mechanism, but not the only one (the key issue is the planet’s low mass, which also, for instance, has made impact erosion quite significant). In any case most of damage has already been done, much of the original Martian atmosphere has been lost. Also, the solar wind is much diminished over what it was when Mars was young. Often the effect of solar wind is overstated - it would affect a warm, thick Martian atmosphere, but only over very long periods. Much longer than humans have had any kind of civilization.

    A NASA proposal is to place a large superconducting magnet at Sun-Mars L!. This would divert the solar wind around Mars, preserving what atmosphere's there and whatever terraformers add to it.

    https://phys.org/news/2017-03-nasa-m...tmosphere.html

    1-nasaproposes.jpg
    Yes, I’ve read about that idea. They’ve been very thin on the details. My impression is that the effect would be a modest reduction of gas loss over tens of millions of years. To significantly increase the atmosphere, either it must reside on Mars (and there is debate about the CO2 budget, some saying there isn’t much, others thinking there is enough for a decent atmosphere, but ultimately we don’t yet know) and would need to be released quickly to be useful to our civilization (so probably extensive heating with gigantic orbital reflectors and super greenhouse gas production as a first step to terraforming). Or gas would need to be imported from elsewhere in the solar system. Either way, the technology and amount of resources needed would be very extensive, not some easy or somewhat easy fix with current or very near term tech. It really isn’t something to worry about until and unless we already have large colonies there, have dramatically developed space based industrial infrastructure and technology, and have deeply studied Mars so we know what we have to work with. It’s probably the sort of thing we could more seriously consider starting in a century or so, and expect to be an ongoing project for thousands of years.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

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  21. #3021
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    May I suggest that if folks want an extended discussion of terraforming Mars, that we move it to another thread. If someone wishes to continue that discussion, please report this post and we'll move posts. If everyone has said their piece, we can go back to talking about launches and rockets.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

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  23. #3023
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    That's actually a somewhat less dramatic difference than I expected!
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  24. #3024
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Wait a minute, wait a minute..
    Falcon is larger than any ICBM ever fielded—equal to Proton, which never had that Czar Bomb atop it.

    Best to put all fissile material in Lunar lava tubes for Pulse-Orion shipyards.

    Discovery looks to broadcast the crew launch live—will the weather hold?

  25. #3025
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    Quote Originally Posted by publiusr View Post
    Discovery looks to broadcast the crew launch live
    That’s good to know. Big events tend to overload servers, and it is really annoying to see “liftoff in 3, 2, 1, buffering buffering “


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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  26. #3026
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    NASA and SpaceX will webcast their co-hosted DM-2 event.

    The last time they did this was for DM-1, and it won an Emmy Award

    https://www.emmys.com/shows/nasa-and...-demo-1-launch

  27. #3027
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    This video shows, among other things, installation of a marine radar atop the Starhopper. Probably a good idea to check for boats out in a potential impact area.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  28. #3028
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    Hmmmm

    https://spacenews.com/u-s-army-signs...ink-broadband/

    U.S. Army signs deal with SpaceX to assess Starlink broadband

    WASHINGTON — The U.S. Army will experiment using Starlink broadband to move data across military networks. An agreement signed with SpaceX on May 20 gives the Army three years to test out the service.

    The Army and SpaceX signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement known as a CRADA, an Army source told SpaceNews.

    The project will be overseen by the Combat Capabilities Development Command’s C5ISR Center based at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

    CRADAs are commonly used by the military to evaluate technologies and services from the private sector before it commits to buying them.
    >
    According to the Army source, the three-year agreement will “allow the Army to understand potential applications of state-of-the art advancements in commercial RF SATCOM such as the new Starlink LEO constellation and modern SATCOM terminal developments capable of tracking LEO satellites.”

    The deal with SpaceX follows other CRADAs the Army has signed with companies like Kratos and SES to assess the use of commercial SATCOM.

    Joseph Welch, deputy program executive officer for command, control, communications tactical (C3T), said the Army is trying to fill a growing demand for connectivity in the field.
    >

  29. #3029
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    Quote Originally Posted by docmordrid View Post
    I hope they have a significant virus/hacking software.

  30. #3030
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    LaunchWx.jpg

    Launch weather ...

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