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Thread: China Space Station

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    China Space Station

    We should be getting more information on China's quest to build a space station. So my decision to start a new thread.

    Today I read the surprising news that they might start building it two years earlier. This gels in nicely with earlier speculation that because of Tiangong-1 space lab success, Tiangong-3 space lab stage will be merged with the final space station.

    http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/chin...t_17831874.htm

    The first of three experimental modules for China's planned space station is expected to be launched in 2018, with the other two set for launch in 2020 and 2022, a leading scientist said.
    The modules will help form a 60-ton space station.
    "We set the date as a preliminary goal," said Gu Yidong, an academic at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a leading research expert in manned space stations.
    Previous media reports set the launch date for the modules at around 2020.
    Last edited by selvaarchi; 2015-Mar-11 at 02:02 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Previous media reports set the launch date for the modules at around 2020.
    They are interpreting it wrong.
    For one thing, the first module was supposed to be in 2015 according to wiki.
    Tiangong-3 (Chinese: 天宫三号; pinyin: Tiāngōng sānhŕo; literally: "Heavenly Palace 3") will be a Chinese space station module, part of the Tiangong space station program. The China National Space Agency is expected to launch Tiangong-3 around 2015,[1] following the launch of the Tiangong-2 laboratory module in 2013. Tiangong-3's design will form the basis of a full-size, multi-module space station, which is expected to launch in the early 2020s.[2]
    And the previous story that I found says it will be "assembled" in the 2020-2022 time frame. You cant assemble without at least the second module.

    There's nothing early about it. The announcement correlates with previous speculation.

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    The statement "Tiangong-3's design will form the basis of a full-size, multi-module space station' says it all. Now there is no Tiangong-3 but the space station itself. The dates you have are from sometime back. I had T-2 next year, T-3 in 2018 and the full size space station from 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    The statement "Tiangong-3's design will form the basis of a full-size, multi-module space station' says it all. Now there is no Tiangong-3 but the space station itself. The dates you have are from sometime back. I had T-2 next year, T-3 in 2018 and the full size space station from 2020.
    None of that negates what I said.

    T3 in 2018 is and always has been the first module of the space station. Where does it say that it hasn't been?
    It would seem a waste to send up a T3 and leave it there while you assemble a station somewhere else.

    The 2nd T3 denotes the start of "assembly".

    The only thing that differs is the setback of the first T3 from 2015 to 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    None of that negates what I said.

    T3 in 2018 is and always has been the first module of the space station. Where does it say that it hasn't been?
    It would seem a waste to send up a T3 and leave it there while you assemble a station somewhere else.

    The 2nd T3 denotes the start of "assembly".

    The only thing that differs is the setback of the first T3 from 2015 to 2018.
    Lets us agree to defer in our views. I will be happy if China can keep their current schedule (all this of cause depends in the successful testing of the Long March 5).

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    Some more speculation from March this year. This time on Tiangong-2. With launch only a year away and still not much news from china it is not surprising we get all the speculation. As highlighted in the article, this could be because of the choice of rockets - both are under development. A bigger Tiangong-2 if they can use the Long March 5 and a smaller one if it was Long March 7.

    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Th...ngong_999.html

    The launch of Tiangong 2 has been expected for a long time, but space analysts are puzzled by the nature of this spacecraft. Originally, China planned to launch three Tiangong modules, and Tiangong 2 was expected to be a marginally improved version of the Tiangong 1 spacecraft. Later, China seemed to drop plans for three Tiangongs and launch just two. We wondered how this would affect the design of the next module to be launched. A whirlwind of rumours, speculation and conflicting reports circulated. China seemed determined to allow the confusion to flourish.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Some more speculation from March this year.
    Why would a 4 month old speculation mean anything more than the latest articles you posted?
    Right now, we are discussing our interpretation of what we are getting from the Tiangong-3 modules that are being published.

    This guy thinks they dropped Tiangog-3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    Why would a 4 month old speculation mean anything more than the latest articles you posted?
    Right now, we are discussing our interpretation of what we are getting from the Tiangong-3 modules that are being published.

    This guy thinks they dropped Tiangog-3.
    This was the latest article on Tiangong 2 I could find . Was trying to find if there any latest news to give us some direction on China's space station plans (also to include some information on Tiangong 2 in this thread ).

    I find the author's reasoning that it is dependent on which of the new rockets is available reasonable for China's plans.
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    This was the latest article on Tiangong 2 I could find . Was trying to find if there any latest news to give us some direction on China's space station plans (also to include some information on Tiangong 2 in this thread ).
    Parts about the Tianzhou cargo craft were interesting, but I started getting lost when he went on with speculation of converting it to a space station. To me, that sounded a little far fetched.

    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    I find the author's reasoning that it is dependent on which of the new rockets is available reasonable for China's plans.
    Since both the LM5 and LM7 are still in what we can consider "trial runs", it's easy to say that there are potential problems. But; since they are already flying, it seems more logical to assume they will continue to refine them to make them available and wait with T3 (or what the author calls the "huge tiatgong") until they are ready. That seems more likely than changing the cargo craft which probably doesn't have multiple docking ports which are needed for a station.
    Plus; the cargo craft isn't exactly proven at this point either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    Parts about the Tianzhou cargo craft were interesting, but I started getting lost when he went on with speculation of converting it to a space station. To me, that sounded a little far fetched.


    Since both the LM5 and LM7 are still in what we can consider "trial runs", it's easy to say that there are potential problems. But; since they are already flying, it seems more logical to assume they will continue to refine them to make them available and wait with T3 (or what the author calls the "huge tiatgong") until they are ready. That seems more likely than changing the cargo craft which probably doesn't have multiple docking ports which are needed for a station.
    Plus; the cargo craft isn't exactly proven at this point either.
    Both the Long March 5 and the Long March 7 have yet to fly. 1st test flight of Long March 5 is planned for early next year. I have been speculating the 1st test flight of Long March 7 might be end of this year but not seen anything in the press.
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Both the Long March 5 and the Long March 7 have yet to fly. 1st test flight of Long March 5 is planned for early next year. I have been speculating the 1st test flight of Long March 7 might be end of this year but not seen anything in the press.
    My mistake.
    They are getting so close that I got the status confused after this last article talked about them not being trustworthy.
    I'm not sure where this "problems=untrustworthy" is coming from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    My mistake.
    They are getting so close that I got the status confused after this last article talked about them not being trustworthy.
    I'm not sure where this "problems=untrustworthy" is coming from.
    When they talked about trustworthy, I think they ment human rated. Long March 7 will be, as it using the same engine as their present ones. Long March 5 will have to go through the certification.
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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    When they talked about trustworthy, I think they ment human rated. Long March 7 will be, as it using the same engine as their present ones. Long March 5 will have to go through the certification.
    But this is in context of what the outcome of the idea of Tiangong-3 will be. There's no reason to worry about human rating for that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    But this is in context of what the outcome of the idea of Tiangong-3 will be. There's no reason to worry about human rating for that.
    You are right. I reread the article, and my interpretation is as follows -
    The Long March 5 has got technical problems and will most probably be delayed. Therfore having a bigger size Tiangong 2 is out of the question (only the Long March 5 will be able to launch it ).
    To keep the space station ambition on track, China could opt to put up a smaller size Tiangong 2 (same size as the cago ship) . His assumption is the Long March 7 will be able to launch it. As it is using an existing engine I will agree that will be less of a challenge to be made operational.
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    Going by the model of Tiangong-3 as seen on the "China Space" Facebook page, this might be their planned space station.

    https://www.facebook.com/ChinaSpace/...type=1&theater
    Last edited by selvaarchi; 2014-Aug-09 at 10:24 PM.

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    Looks a little different than previous conceptual drawings.
    Looks like T2 modules with some kind of extensions to them.

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    Think Mir-2

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    This report says that China is speeding up it's space station. My concern is there is no mention of the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. I have not seen any official report on how badly typhoon Rammasun damaged the site. There is chatter in the blogs that it was badly damaged and will affect the development of the new rockets and that directly affect the time line for the space station.

    http://www.leonarddavid.com/china-ey...station-plans/

    China is considering the prospect of moving up their space station agenda, according to recent news reports in that country.

    A recent China Daily story explains that the first of three experimental modules for China’s planned space station is expected to be launched in 2018, with the other two set for launch in 2020 and 2022.

    Those modules would be the foundation to form a 60-ton space station.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    This report says that China is speeding up it's space station.
    That was what your OP link says 4 weeks ago. Old news.

    OP:
    The first of three experimental modules for China's planned space station is expected to be launched in 2018, with the other two set for launch in 2020 and 2022, a leading scientist said.
    Latest link:
    A recent China Daily story explains that the first of three experimental modules for China’s planned space station is expected to be launched in 2018, with the other two set for launch in 2020 and 2022.
    Are you following your own information?

    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    My concern is there is no mention of the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. I have not seen any official report on how badly typhoon Rammasun damaged the site. There is chatter in the blogs that it was badly damaged and will affect the development of the new rockets and that directly affect the time line for the space station.
    Their facebook page said there will be some construction delays. That doesn't sound to bad. Badly damaged, but maybe the damage is easily remedied. They still have nearly 3 years before their Long March flights (per your LM Thread), so it might not have any impact at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    That was what your OP link says 4 weeks ago. Old news.

    OP:

    Latest link:

    Are you following your own information?
    My mistake. I got confused and attributed that to Dr Morris Jones

    Their facebook page said there will be some construction delays. That doesn't sound to bad. Badly damaged, but maybe the damage is easily remedied. They still have nearly 3 years before their Long March flights (per your LM Thread), so it might not have any impact at all.
    Forget about construction delays. Do a search on typhoon Rammasun and read the sort of damage it did - it was one of the most powerful storms to hit China and the island, the center is on, took a direct hit. Other then the Facebook information the Chinese have been very quiet on that front.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    Do a search on typhoon Rammasun and read the sort of damage it did
    Houses...
    On July 17, Rammasun made landfall near Wenchang City on the island province of Hainan.The city's mayor, Liu Chun-mei, told the Xinhua News Agency that many houses had been damaged and more than 700,000 people evacuated
    Houses aren't usually too storm worthy no matter what country they are in.
    Usually government structures, especially new ones are built to withstand hurricanes.

    For comparison: If you look at the history of KSC, Most of the damage due to hurricanes was isolated to outdoor displays and the VAB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    Houses...


    Houses aren't usually too storm worthy no matter what country they are in.
    Usually government structures, especially new ones are built to withstand hurricanes.

    For comparison: If you look at the history of KSC, Most of the damage due to hurricanes was isolated to outdoor displays and the VAB.
    Hope your assessment turns out to be correct. One indication will be the launch of Long March 7 this year.
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    Tiangong-2 according to the latest report from China will now take place in 2016. The good news is Tiangong-3 (experimental core space station module) is still set to launch in 2018.

    http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ch...icial_999.html

    China will launch its second orbiting space laboratory in two years' time, a top official said Wednesday, the latest step in an ambitious space programme Beijing says will one day land a Chinese man on the moon.

    Astronaut Yang Liwei, who in 2003 became China's first man in space and is now deputy director of the country's manned space programme, made the announcement at the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) congress in Beijing.

    "We are going to launch the spacelab Tiangong-2 in 2016, and then we will launch Shenzhou-11 and then Tianzhou-1 cargo spaceship to dock on the spacelab," he said

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    The news report on China's space station also contains information on Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. They do not say it but the delay can only be due to the storm that hit it.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ch..._133633441.htm

    A new launch center in the southernmost province of Hainan is almost completed and can already launch space vehicles, he added.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    The news report on China's space station also contains information on Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. They do not say it but the delay can only be due to the storm that hit it.
    What delay?

    Your comment isn't even remotely related to what they are talking about in the article. They didn't mention any delay, and worse, you add even more of your own completely unsupported comments about a delay and what caused it.

    Even if there is a delay, It can also be due to the normal delays you see in construction and spaceflight. I already provided evidence that the launch center was most likely not affected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    What delay?

    Your comment isn't even remotely related to what they are talking about in the article. They didn't mention any delay, and worse, you add even more of your own completely unsupported comments about a delay and what caused it.

    Even if there is a delay, It can also be due to the normal delays you see in construction and spaceflight. I already provided evidence that the launch center was most likely not affected.
    If you had been following the progress of the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, even in early June they were expecting it to be completed in June. Them we had the storm strike the island, and total news blackout on it till now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    even in early June they were expecting it to be completed in June.
    Which means it was delayed before the hurricane it in July.

    In April you said the upgrade HAS been complete.
    In June you said it will be complete in June. That's before the hurricane, so obviously, they were already delayed.

    Your track record of speculations and interpretations have not been very good.

    If the delay is due to storms, It would be in the best interest of the public relations departments just to say so. I already showed you that the damage was limited to small structures.

    You seem to not want to even think of the possibility that there might be normal everyday delays that construction and spaceflight have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    Which means it was delayed before the hurricane it in July.

    In April you said the upgrade HAS been complete.
    In June you said it will be complete in June. That's before the hurricane, so obviously, they were already delayed.

    Your track record of speculations and interpretations have not been very good.

    If the delay is due to storms, It would be in the best interest of the public relations departments just to say so. I already showed you that the damage was limited to small structures.

    You seem to not want to even think of the possibility that there might be normal everyday delays that construction and spaceflight have.
    If you read the articles you would have realized that dates were from them and not my speculation. There has been chatter in other forums about some damage but not from the Chinese press.

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    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    If you read the articles you would have realized that dates were from them and not my speculation.
    No; I'm commenting on your speculation that the delay is due to damage, not what dates were set.
    That doesn't address my comments about the dates being set and delayed before the hurricane.

    Quote Originally Posted by selvaarchi View Post
    There has been chatter in other forums about some damage but not from the Chinese press.
    Somebody on another forum could say there has been chatter here about it because of your speculations. That means nothing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
    No; I'm commenting on your speculation that the delay is due to damage, not what dates were set.
    That doesn't address my comments about the dates being set and delayed before the hurricane.


    Somebody on another forum could say there has been chatter here about it because of your speculations. That means nothing.
    We will have to wait for news from China to confirm one way or another.
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