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Thread: UFO Sightings Down?

  1. #1
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    UFO Sightings Down?

    Seems as if UFO sightings are taking a nose dive the last 2-3 years, if this graph is correct. Only 315 sightings in 1990? Surprised that it wasn't more than that.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ightings-slump
    https://infographic.statista.com/nor..._heights_n.jpg

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    /Old Man voice/

    “If you darn whippersnappers would look up from your phones for once, you might see something INTERESTING! Like flyin’ saucers— wait, no, that one’s just a bird.”

    /Old Man voice/

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    Seems as if UFO sightings are taking a nose dive the last 2-3 years,
    Perhaps people are just assuming everything that seems strange flying around is just another one of those pesky drones.

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    Improving mobile phone cameras. People are filming what they see and being able to find out for themselves that it's just another seagull.

    Grant Hutchison

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    The aliens don't have to come to Earth anymore to see the silly things humans do, they just watch YouTube.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Improving mobile phone cameras. People are filming what they see and being able to find out for themselves that it's just another seagull.

    Grant Hutchison
    "And I ran . . ."
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    Calm down, have some dip. - George Carlin

  7. #7
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    This thread reminds me of this often repeated xkcd cartoon.

    https://xkcd.com/1235/


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    Yeah, George Carlin said pretty clearly why aliens wouldn't wanna say Hello in his last concert "Life is worth losing"

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    Here is another report stating just the opposite:

    ĎRebutting a common perception that U.F.O. sightings are on the wane, the Costasí book shows that sightings have risen in waves, to 11,868 nationwide in 2015 from 3,479 in 2001. Only a small fraction of sightings are actually reported to Mufon or Nuforc.Ē

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/s...ings-book.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    Here is another report stating just the opposite:

    Rebutting a common perception that U.F.O. sightings are on the wane, the Costas’ book shows that sightings have risen in waves, to 11,868 nationwide in 2015 from 3,479 in 2001. Only a small fraction of sightings are actually reported to Mufon or Nuforc.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/s...ings-book.html
    A 3-fold increase of sightings during a 14 year period when the number of cameras available went exponential to include most of the adult population just proves the point of XKCD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by loglo View Post
    A 3-fold increase of sightings during a 14 year period when the number of cameras available went exponential to include most of the adult population just proves the point of XKCD.
    And with a 3-fold increase in sightings, what was the increase of clear, multi-person documented photographic evidence? Well, since that has YET to happen, the basic tenet, that anything times zero equal zero, is sufficient to explain the null result.

  12. #12
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    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".

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    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".
    Why? I donít really understand the logic.


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    As above, so below

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by loglo View Post
    A 3-fold increase of sightings during a 14 year period when the number of cameras available went exponential to include most of the adult population just proves the point of XKCD.
    Maybe, I'm hoping, people are becoming more rational and not jumping to conclusions. "Look a UFO, must be aliens." Then they report it. Now, they see a UFO, and, that's it, they don't report it. If as the Costas Book shows: How do they know for sure that sightings are up, if they aren't being reported?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Superluminal View Post
    Maybe, I'm hoping, people are becoming more rational and not jumping to conclusions. "Look a UFO, must be aliens." Then they report it. Now, they see a UFO, and, that's it, they don't report it. If as the Costas Book shows: How do they know for sure that sightings are up, if they aren't being reported?
    I don't see any evidence for increased rationality of the general populace. I do see evidence that more people are simply not looking up, even to cross a road.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Why? I donít really understand the logic.


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    The idea is that if there really was something notable in the sky then a lot more people would be able to record what they see as they have a camera on them all the time. Since we have not seen the exponential rise of UFO reports along with the rise in people with cameras then there really is nothing to see.

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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by loglo View Post
    The idea is that if there really was something notable in the sky then a lot more people would be able to record what they see as they have a camera on them all the time. Since we have not seen the exponential rise of UFO reports along with the rise in people with cameras then there really is nothing to see.
    Well, that I understood. But gzhpcu was arguing just the opposite, that the rise of smartphones would lead to a decrease in sightings. The quote was:

    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".
    Note "decrease," not "increase." So maybe it was a simple mistake. But now that I think of it, maybe the argument is that because of smartphones, people don't look up at the sky anymore and so don't notice UFOs. I would admit that it might have a softening effect, but still I think the argument that you made, that more people having cameras should lead to more sightings, is the more substantial argument, because there are lots of people who are not looking down when they are walking.
    As above, so below

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".
    Why? I don’t really understand the logic.
    Well, I proposed one possibility, which is that having an HD camera and video with you at all times, especially with digital zoom, allows you to shoot an image, examine it, and turn a UFO into an identified flying object. "Oh, it's just a seagull."
    I've twice turned an unidentified bird into an identified bird because I was carrying a compact camera (but no binoculars). I'm sure other people do similar things with their phone cameras when they see something they can't identify.

    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2018-Jul-22 at 11:30 AM. Reason: link

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Well, I proposed one possibility, which is that having an HD camera and video with you at all times, especially with digital zoom, allows you to shoot an image, examine it, and turn a UFO into an identified flying object. "Oh, it's just a seagull."
    I've twice turned an unidentified bird into an identified bird because I was carrying a compact camera (but no binoculars). I'm sure other people do similar things with their phone cameras when they see something they can't identify.

    Grant Hutchison
    And you can buy an inexpensive telephoto lens for a pad or phone that rivals the huge lenses used by bird watchers and intrusive journalists.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    And you can buy an inexpensive telephoto lens for a pad or phone that rivals the huge lenses used by bird watchers and intrusive journalists.
    I'm unimpressed by the image quality achievable with phone + clip-on lens, compared to a DSLR with a big telephoto. But I'm sure they'd be just as good at resolving UFO issues as my cheap hill-walking compact.

    Grant Hutchison

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    Why? I don’t really understand the logic.


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    Simply because with a smartphone almost anyone can take a photo, as opposed to the few percentage of persons walking around with a camera.
    Last edited by gzhpcu; 2018-Jul-22 at 04:58 PM. Reason: clarity

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    And you can buy an inexpensive telephoto lens for a pad or phone that rivals the huge lenses used by bird watchers and intrusive journalists.
    No, you really can't. If you could everyone would be all over them but the people paying kilo-bucks for their lenses do so for a reason.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    Simply because with a smartphone almost anyone can take a photo, as opposed to the few percentage of persons walking around with a camera.
    But then why would that lead to a decrease? You said:

    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".
    As above, so below

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Well, I proposed one possibility, which is that having an HD camera and video with you at all times, especially with digital zoom, allows you to shoot an image, examine it, and turn a UFO into an identified flying object. "Oh, it's just a seagull."
    I've twice turned an unidentified bird into an identified bird because I was carrying a compact camera (but no binoculars). I'm sure other people do similar things with their phone cameras when they see something they can't identify.
    That makes sense I guess, though even then I would think it would be a mitigating factor rather than something that would lead to a net decrease.
    As above, so below

  25. #25
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    Another thought is that it could be simply related to technology. People used to visit sites and things like that, but now they just tweet things, so it could be that a decrease in reported sightings is because people are using Instagram or Twitter rather than posting them to "official" UFO sites.
    As above, so below

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    That makes sense I guess, though even then I would think it would be a mitigating factor rather than something that would lead to a net decrease.
    I believe that was the point loglo was making, to which gzhpcu agreed, which then provoked your question.
    Quote Originally Posted by loglo View Post
    A 3-fold increase of sightings during a 14 year period when the number of cameras available went exponential to include most of the adult population just proves the point of XKCD.
    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    The rise of smartphones is certainly a valid argument for the decrease of sightings of "ufos".
    Grant Hutchison
    Last edited by grant hutchison; 2018-Jul-23 at 12:27 AM.

  27. #27
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    I did seem to remember an article where someones UFO detector did manage to photograph sprites. Not very many good images of ball lightning....

  28. #28
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    Seems that military pilots have seen increased activity leading to this:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/24/p...nes/index.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    Seems that military pilots have seen increased activity leading to this:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/24/p...nes/index.html
    Maybe what we learn from the reports will help us build something like that, no matter what the source is.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by gzhpcu View Post
    Seems that military pilots have seen increased activity leading to this:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/24/p...nes/index.html
    In the article it doesn't say anything about increased activity...
    As above, so below

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