View Poll Results: GW in 2100

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • 1.5 degrees C or less

    5 21.74%
  • 2 degrees

    4 17.39%
  • 2.5 degrees

    3 13.04%
  • 3 degrees

    3 13.04%
  • 3.5 degrees

    2 8.70%
  • 4 deg\rees

    2 8.70%
  • 4.5 degrees

    0 0%
  • 5 degrees

    0 0%
  • 5.5 degrees

    1 4.35%
  • 6 degrees or more

    3 13.04%
Page 2 of 8 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 60 of 223

Thread: Global warming in 2100

  1. #31
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,062
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    We need to start thinking about regional changes rather than just a global figure, . Did you see the recent excessive monsoon in India for example?
    You might find this video interesting.

    Temperature Anomalies by Country 1880-2017 based on NASA GISTEMP data.
    You also might find this interesting: it is a summary from EOS-Earth & Space Science News about a US government report.

    The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), created by a U.S. government organization that coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society, also lays out the current state of science relating to climate change and its physical effects.
    There are some images that depict global and regional (within the US) variations in temperature rise and other effects (like precipitation).
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    thank you for those references, they are indeed interesting. The more northern lattitudes expected to rise in temperature far more than the global average. May I take this chance to comment on New Scientist 24 August p34 the story of James Croll, a little known Scot who first proposed the mechanism of the ice ages in 1864, well before Milankovitch. It was Croll who worked out the positive feedback mechanism of the arctic and gulf stream , turning a small change of solar radiation into an ice age. Ironically I feel the same sensitivity is at play in reverse now as it is the drastic Arctic changes that are accelerating the global warming effect. I had never heard of James Croll, a self educated son of a poor Scottish farmer. He wrote a book "Climate and Time" in 1875 which I hope I might find somewhere, precociously discussing antarctic ice and ocean current effects. He might be the first investigator of climate change to put his finger on the complexities, I hope his genius is belatedly recognised.

    PS I find Amazon has several copies including Kindle)
    Last edited by profloater; 2018-Sep-01 at 12:55 PM. Reason: ps about book
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Posts
    296
    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    One could make an argument that higher CO2 levels buffer the affects of orbital variations.

    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    Really? Could you explain that argument? I suppose orbital variations that lead to cooler temperatures would be countered by higher CO2 levels, but variations that lead to warmer temperatures would be that much worse. I don't see how this is buffering?
    how much real solar input is orbital/distance based vs timing of close approach at mid summer/winter vs actual total solar cycle output ?

    what is the greatest known driving variable for surface temp isolation orbit/timing or total solar output rate ?
    how much up or down temps do we think there can be independent of warming gases effects
    if we get an extended low no/spot cycle minimum over an extended time how much cooling is possible ?
    and where are we in the orbit cycle I thought mid term with out much effects any time soon ?

    do we have ways of understanding passed records of solar rates before the sun spot counts began ?

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    there are two questions built in there, the sunspot variability is an 11 year cycle and the orbit variability thousands of years, the next ice age might be 50,000 years away and might be delayed by global warming. We are seeing changes in the 50 year kind of period which might already be driving some positive feedback effects such as the melting arctic ice and are therefore much more urgent than the orbital considerations. The variation from 1365 to 1367 W/m2 seen in the recent sunspot cycles may not seem very significant although there is complexity in the type of radiation received and its effect on weather as opposed to climate. However it seems to me the distinction between climate and weather is narrowing as we watch extreme events occur.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-a...31-p500yf.html

    'The damn thing melted': climate change sparks scramble for the Arctic

    Nick Miller
    2 September 2018 — 12:23am

    Thanks to climate change, the Venta was able to take a short cut over the top of the globe – the first container ship to do so – through the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska, above the desolate Siberian coast, past worried polar bears, melting permafrost and huge new Chinese-funded gas fields, through Arctic waters that Russia wants to control, and down past Norway, where this week a group of academics, analysts and policymakers were fretting over what it all means.

    They gathered in Tromso, Norway’s northernmost city, 350 kilometres above the Arctic Circle. It’s dark here for 48 days in winter, but this week Tromso was warmer than Sydney.

    The experts were invited to Tromso by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a German think tank whose board of directors includes both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her widely-touted successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

    The one-day seminar, titled "Changes in the Arctic Security Landscape", announced it was time to look at “current and future security challenges in the Arctic”.

    “We are moving into a new Cold War,” one attendee said (the seminar was held under the Chatham House Rule, to encourage frankness, so speakers cannot be identified). “The Arctic is caught between East and West … and it is moving to the East.

    Some talked about the effects of climate change on the nuclear deterrent, others about the temptation of mineral riches in Greenland. Many rued the US retreat from international affairs. All were concerned about the Arctic’s role in climate change. They pondered if treaties and multilateral forums will be enough to keep the great powers reined in as this new playground opens up.

    Outside, the sun struck blue sparks off Tromso’s harbour, and a French navy patrol boat set out to sea after a friendly visit in this increasingly tense part of the world.

    It’s not just commercial shipping making moves in the Arctic. The rapidly thinning sea ice is making way for warships, as the world’s great powers look north and see untapped wealth and strategic opportunities - or threats.

    ==================

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...time-on-record

    Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record
    Usually frozen waters open up twice this year in phenomenon scientists described as scary

    Jonathan Watts
    Tue 21 Aug 2018 04.35 EDT Last modified on Wed 22 Aug 2018 04.59 EDT

    Scientists say thinning of the sea ice has reached even the coldest parts of the Arctic. Photograph: Nick Cobbing/Greenpeace

    The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.

    This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere.

    One meteorologist described the loss of ice as “scary”. Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic will withstand warming the longest.

    The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as “the last ice area” because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet.

    But abnormal temperature spikes in February and earlier this month have left it vulnerable to winds, which have pushed the ice further away from the coast than at any time since satellite records began in the 1970s.

    ===========================

    https://www.space.com/41533-abrupt-p...te-impact.html

    Melting Permafrost Below Arctic Lakes Is Even More Dangerous to the Climate, NASA Warns

    By Meghan Bartels, Space.com Senior Writer
    August 18, 2018 07:39am ET

    Scientists have worried for years that rising temperatures will free carbon trapped in frozen soil in the Arctic, accelerating the pace of climate change — but now they believe abrupt thawing below lakes is even more dangerous.

    That's the finding of a new paper published as part of a 10-year NASA collaboration to study how climate change will play out in the icy Arctic region.

    "We don't have to wait 200 or 300 years to get these large releases of permafrost carbon," lead study author Katey Walter Anthony, an ecologist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, said in a NASA statement about the research. "Within my lifetime, my children's lifetime, it should be ramping up. It's already happening but it's not happening at a really fast rate right now, but within a few decades, it should peak." [Climate Change Strengthens Earth's 'Heartbeat' — and That's Bad News

    The new research is based on measurements and models of how climate change and melting permafrost interact. Specifically, the team of scientists looked at permafrost melting below bodies of water known as thermokarst lakes.

    The team behind the new research measured carbon release at 72 different locations on 11 thermokarst lakes across Siberia and Alaska, plus five locations without lakes, to calculate how much greenhouse gas was being produced and how old the carbon it contained was. Then, they used this data to make sure the models they were building were on the right track.

    Here's the problem: When permanently frozen dirt melts, the bacteria trapped inside it become active again, munch through whatever organic material is in reach, and produce carbon dioxide and methane, which are both powerful greenhouse gases

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard...tic-permafrost
    NASA statement

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    The Wild West
    Posts
    9,439
    Quote Originally Posted by Spacedude View Post
    Last I heard was that the arctic icecap will be gone by the summer of 2030 or thereabouts. One thing I've noticed about ice is that when it's all melted my drink warms up at an accelerated rate.
    Cheers!
    Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,062
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    <snip>
    “We are moving into a new Cold War,” one attendee said (the seminar was held under the Chatham House Rule, to encourage frankness, so speakers cannot be identified). “The Arctic is caught between East and West … and it is moving to the East.

    Some talked about the effects of climate change on the nuclear deterrent, others about the temptation of mineral riches in Greenland. Many rued the US retreat from international affairs. All were concerned about the Arctic’s role in climate change. They pondered if treaties and multilateral forums will be enough to keep the great powers reined in as this new playground opens up.
    Please note, this is in moderator purple.

    All,

    Any discussion of the political aspects of this is strictly against forum rules and will not be tolerated. Quoting an article on the broader topic that includes political aspects might be OK, but discussion of those points is not.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-a...31-p500yf.html

    'The damn thing melted': climate change sparks scramble for the Arctic-arctic-permafrost[/url]
    NASA statement
    I shortened it but nice summary. The break up of the ice is a worry because the ice drifts south to melt faster, obviously, and to release cold fresh water into the atlantic circulation and gulf stream. I do not know what effect it has on the global temperature forecast with those methane threats and lower reflectivity, but it sure worries me about my UK home, bathing contentedly in the gulf stream while at the same lattitude my cousins freeze in Canada. Of course I don't want to be a NIMBY, and I enjoy cold weather if only that was all it means. I guess we will find out soon enough because that heat wave is likely to repeat for a few years and thus we may see these changes sooner rather than later.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,062
    Another tool for regional effects (seems to cover at least major cities globally)
    As the world warms because of human-induced climate change, most of us can expect to see more days when temperatures hit 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) or higher. See how your hometown has changed so far and how much hotter it may get.
    I did it for my current town of Hudson, Ohio (USA):
    The Hudson area averaged 3 days when temperatures climb to 90 degrees or higher in 1960, and could expect to see between 7 and 25 very hot days by the end of this century.
    The work was apparently done by the Climate Impact Lab and there is a description of the methodology:
    For each year, the count of days at or above 90 degrees reflects a 21-year rolling average. Temperature observations for your hometown are averaged over an area of approximately 625 km (240 square miles), and may not match single weather-station records.

    The time series is based on historical data for 1960-2000. The 2001-2020 period relies on a combination of historical data and future projections. After 2020, the data uses a mixed climate model that captures a broad range of extreme temperature responses. The “likely” future range reflects outcomes with 66 percent probability of occurrence in the RCP 4.5 scenario.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    https://qz.com/1203916/the-rapidly-t...alth-disaster/

    The rapidly-thawing permafrost is full of mercury

    By Zo Schlanger
    February 9, 2018

    As the Frozen North becomes, well, less-frozen, plenty of ancient and unsettling things could emerge from the great permafrost thaw, like giant viruses and vast stores of greenhouse gases. Apparently we need to add the neurotoxin mercury to that list.

    The biggest continual human source of airborne mercury emissions is from small-scale gold mining, followed closely by coal-burning in power plants. After spending some time in the air, that mercury falls to earth, contaminating soil and water, and ending up in our food chain. Mercury is a neurotoxin known to cause cognitive dysfunction and other ailments. Even small amounts can affect a developing fetus in utero.

    But mercury is also naturally occurring, like the kind that’s been locked away for millennia in the ancient frozen soils of Arctic permafrost. And there’s a lot more of it there than we realized.

    According to a study published Monday (Feb. 5) in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the Arctic permafrost, which, combined with permafrost in the Antarctic covers roughly 20% of the Earth’s surface, holds an estimated 15 million gallons of naturally-occurring mercury. That’s roughly 10 times more mercury there than all the mercury humans have pumped into the atmosphere over the last 30 years, according to National Geographic. It’s also almost twice as much mercury contained by all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, according to the paper, which is the first to quantify how much mercury is trapped in the permafrost.

    Right now, the permafrost mercury is mostly locked alongside all the other ancient material in the frozen ground. But it is thawing at a rapid clip, thanks to climate change. The Arctic, home to plenty of permafrost, is warming twice as quickly as the rest of the world.

    ================

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....2/2017GL075571

    Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury
    Paul F. Schuster, Kevin M. Schaefer, George R. Aiken, Ronald C. Antweiler, John F. Dewild, Joshua D. Gryziec, Alessio Gusmeroli, Gustaf Hugelius, Elchin Jafarov
    First published: 05 February 2018
    https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075571
    This article was corrected on 20 JUN 2018.

    Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (RHgC) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 30 ng Hg g soil−1 and a median RHgC of 1.6 0.9 μg Hg g C−1, consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.

    Plain Language Summary: Researchers estimate the amount of natural mercury stored in perennially frozen soils (permafrost) in the Northern Hemisphere. Permafrost regions contain twice as much mercury as the rest of all soils, the atmosphere, and ocean combined.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2018-Sep-04 at 07:13 PM.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Thank you for that news about mercury which I had not seen elsewhere. It is a pity that the form of the mercury is not given, I guess it is biologically locked up as compounds which are more dangerous than elemental mercury. The route to human danger would be through fish and fishing as is already the case around Japan. The sheer amount of mercury mentioned is seriously alarming but I guess we need to know the rate of release. Permafrost also has a latent heat requirement that forces a gradual melting picture. More news required!
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Thank you for that news about mercury which I had not seen elsewhere. It is a pity that the form of the mercury is not given, I guess it is biologically locked up as compounds which are more dangerous than elemental mercury. The route to human danger would be through fish and fishing as is already the case around Japan. The sheer amount of mercury mentioned is seriously alarming but I guess we need to know the rate of release. Permafrost also has a latent heat requirement that forces a gradual melting picture. More news required!
    Only other recent paper I could find.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...181?via%3Dihub

    Snowmelt, glacial and atmospheric sources of mercury to a subarctic mountain lake catchment, Yukon, Canada

    Zdanowicz, C.; Karlsson, P.; Beckholmen, I.; Roach, P.; Poulain, A.; Yumvihoze, E.; Martma, T.; Ryjkov, A.; Dastoor, A.
    10/2018

    In montane regions, ongoing and future shrinkage of glacier cover, coupled with a shortening snow cover period, can profoundly alter river hydrology but also lead to the release of long-range contaminants, such as mercury (Hg), deposited and stored in snow and ice. In this study, field data coupled with hydrological and atmospheric models were used to estimate the contributions of atmospherically-deposited Hg released by snow or glacier ice melt, and from direct atmospheric deposition, to Kusawa Lake, in subarctic Yukon, Canada. The estimated net Hg accumulation rate in supraglacial snow obtained from field samples is 0.55 mug m-2 a-1. The direct annual atmospheric Hg flux to Kusawa Lake, obtained from model simulations, and which includes summertime wet deposition, is ~6 times larger, averaging 3.04 mug m-2 a-1. The estimated mass of Hg from snow/ice meltwater entering the lake annually is 0.6 kg, while direct atmospheric deposition to the lake may contribute a further 0.4 kg, totaling 1.0 kg a-1. Levels of Hg in cores taken from glaciers in the catchment's headwaters are mostly above expected pre-industrial values, which suggests that some Hg now being released from glaciers is legacy anthropogenic Hg that accumulated in the past 150 years. At present, the delivery of Hg from melting glacial ice is the largest known source to Kusawa Lake, followed by contemporary atmospheric inputs (direct or via runoff). Efforts should be made to quantify other potential sources, such as subglacial meltwater, runoff from wetlands/forest, or melting permafrost, to better constrain the Hg balance in montane lake catchments of this region.

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Ethyl and methyl mercury, very simple compounds of a methyl CH3 group attached to mercury are made by bacteria and then become much more toxic for humans and fish in seas and oceans. Anthropogenic mercury would be from gold mining mainly because mercury liquid metal dissolves gold
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  15. #45
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Russian ice cap melting at accelerated rate, getting faster all the time because of melting-sliding feedback loop.

    https://phys.org/news/2018-09-unprec...ssian-cap.html

  16. #46
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    recent greenland survey using water seeking radar also found water under more ice than expected, water accelerates the sliding of the glaciers on land.
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0105123223.htm
    the paper reveals that when the ice cracks, surface meltwater can run down crevasses to the bedrock and then lubricate the flow of the ice. Radar penetrates ice but not liquid water. (an interesting experiment is to take an ice cube from the freezer, dry of water and microwave it. It will only melt if there is surface water.)
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  17. #47
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    I, for one, look forward to our new and oncoming Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, and I will be buying inland beachfront properties to prepare for it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoc...hermal_Maximum

  18. #48
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    https://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...-a8553666.html

    Melting permafrost producing lakes that bubble up large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane. Flammable, too.

  19. #49
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    https://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...-a8553666.html

    Melting permafrost producing lakes that bubble up large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane. Flammable, too.
    Although in a recent bbc program it was revealed that while some permafrost releases co2 and CH3 other chemicals in other regions are basic and should absorb CO2 and we do not yet know the balance.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  20. #50
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45629395

    Antarctic mosses are dying off, apparently as a result of a drying climate and ozone depletion. The mosses are said to be the only plants able to grow in Antarctica. When the mosses are gone, other plants will probably take over if the climate in the far south becomes more agreeable.

    Related link on same topic: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0280-0

  21. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Kiss the permafrost goodbye. Shrubs are melting it through an interesting and complex process across the arctic. This is Roger the Shrubber, and that's your Daily Shrubbery News.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1017172841.htm

  22. #52
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    By personal experience I can vouch for bad flash-flooding in SC, where I live. Storms in summer are much worse these days, faster moving, more precipitation.


    https://phys.org/news/2018-10-temper...rm-runoff.html

    Rising temperatures and human activity are increasing storm runoff and flash floods

    October 22, 2018, Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Science

    Hurricanes Florence and Michael in the U.S. and Super Typhoon Mangkhut in the Philippines have shown the widespread and harmful impact of weather extremes on both ecosystems and built communities, with flash floods causing more deaths, as well as property and agriculture losses than from any other severe weather-related hazards. These losses have been increasing over the past 50 years and have exceeded $30 billion per year in the past decade. Globally, almost one billion people now live in floodplains, raising their exposure to river flooding from extreme weather events and underscoring the urgency in understanding and predicting these events.

    Columbia Engineering researchers have demonstrated for the first time that runoff extremes have been dramatically increasing in response to climate and human-induced changes. Their findings, published today in Nature Communications, show a large increase in both precipitation and runoff extremes driven by both human activity and climate change. The team, led by Pierre Gentine, associate professor of earth and environmental engineering and affiliated with the Earth Institute, also found that storm runoff has a stronger response than precipitation to human-induced changes (climate change, land-use land-cover changes, etc). This suggests that projected responses of storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes are going to increase dramatically, posing large threats to the ecosystem, affecting community resilience and infrastructure systems.

    The researchers discovered that changes in storm runoff extremes in most regions of the world are in line with or higher than those of precipitation extremes. They noted that different responses of precipitation and storm runoff to temperature can be attributed not only to warming, but also to factors like land-use and land-cover changes, water and land management, and vegetation changes that have altered the underlying surface conditions and hydrological feedbacks that have, in turn, increased storm runoff.

    ===========

    http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06765-2

    Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes
    Jiabo Yin, et al. -- Nature Communications, volume 9, Article number: 4389 (22 Oct 2018)

    Weather extremes have widespread harmful impacts on ecosystems and human communities with more deaths and economic losses from flash floods than any other severe weather-related hazards. Flash floods attributed to storm runoff extremes are projected to become more frequent and damaging globally due to a warming climate and anthropogenic changes, but previous studies have not examined the response of these storm runoff extremes to naturally and anthropogenically driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. Here we show that storm runoff extremes increase in most regions at rates higher than suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, which are systematically close to or exceed those of precipitation extremes over most regions of the globe, accompanied by large spatial and decadal variability. These results suggest that current projected response of storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes may be underestimated, posing large threats for ecosystem and community resilience under future warming conditions.

  23. #53
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Brief but thorough coverage of the major problems facing Alaska through climate change.

    https://theconversation.com/in-alask...-change-105032

    In Alaska, everyone’s grappling with climate change
    October 22, 2018 6.37am EDT

  24. #54
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Thank you for that link. I note that the tone has shifted toward adaption in the messages from the UN climate panel and while welcome IMO it will be hard in Alaska and other areas where the climate conditions are central to all activity. The ability to adapt is a hall mark of human ingenuity and if we all wake up and start to think, then I am sure we will be able to use engineering skills, but for wildlife, the prognosis is not so hopeful.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  25. #55
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Thank you for that link. I note that the tone has shifted toward adaption in the messages from the UN climate panel and while welcome IMO it will be hard in Alaska and other areas where the climate conditions are central to all activity. The ability to adapt is a hall mark of human ingenuity and if we all wake up and start to think, then I am sure we will be able to use engineering skills, but for wildlife, the prognosis is not so hopeful.
    My personal opinion, just an opinion, is that it is far too late to modify climate change. It's full on. Humans will adapt and be fine, I've never worried about that. Earth was a lot warmer at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Jungles-in-the-Arctic period. Polar bears... hope there are enough left to go around to all the zoos.

  26. #56
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,062
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    My personal opinion, just an opinion, is that it is far too late to modify climate change. It's full on. Humans will adapt and be fine, I've never worried about that. Earth was a lot warmer at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Jungles-in-the-Arctic period. Polar bears... hope there are enough left to go around to all the zoos.
    Overall I have a similar opinion, with some differences in details.

    For both technical and social/political reasons, it is too late to stop/prevent climate change. We still have a chance to change how big the change is, but within a decade or several, we won't really have much of a chance to even do that. If I was going to bet, I'm thinking 3 to 5C change by the end of the century.

    Humans will adapt, and we'll be "fine" in the sense that we won't go extinct or anything close. But the kinds of impacts we are already seeing: changes in rainfall patterns, temperature extremes, more destructive hurricanes, etc. will continue and will get worse. Millions will suffer because of this. There may eventually be big disruptions to civilization: mass migrations away from coasts or areas hurt by droughts or other climate problems (all of which can lead to conflicts), changes in availability and cost of various foods, etc.

    Ecosystems will be severely impacted, and polar bears are almost the least of it. Look at some of the other stories in this thread. We are deep into the Holocene Extinction, and while Climate Change isn't the only cause, it is one of the more significant. We will lose a lot more than polar bears; whole ecosystems may largely or completely vanish.

    It will take thousands of years for the Earth to recover, though it will eventually.
    Last edited by Swift; 2018-Oct-24 at 01:37 PM.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  27. #57
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    3,199
    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    It will take thousands of years for the Earth to recover, though it will eventually.
    Plus, all our chickens will grow 7 feet tall, like Diatrymas, and we can ride them like in that videogame. And think of the eggs! And drumsticks!

    I'll go take my medication, brb

  28. #58
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    I have long wondered why the warming cycle is not perpetuated since more water is held in a warming atmosphere and one would think it would run away so I am not so sanguine as Swift about a long term recovery. It seems to me the cooling disastrous events have been part of the story, the impacts and the volcanos but now we the people are driving the rate of change and barring another huge impact, we must get together and adapt to extreme weather, rising sea levels, species extinctions and all the rest. I guess it will have to get worse before the lessons really get driven home, and it seems to me it is getting worse faster than many predicted.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  29. #59
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
    Posts
    49,062
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    I have long wondered why the warming cycle is not perpetuated since more water is held in a warming atmosphere and one would think it would run away so I am not so sanguine as Swift about a long term recovery. It seems to me the cooling disastrous events have been part of the story, the impacts and the volcanos but now we the people are driving the rate of change and barring another huge impact, we must get together and adapt to extreme weather, rising sea levels, species extinctions and all the rest. I guess it will have to get worse before the lessons really get driven home, and it seems to me it is getting worse faster than many predicted.
    I don't know, but I suspect at some point other mechanisms start coming into play. For example, at some concentration of water in the atmosphere you start increasing cloud formation, which will block the sun. At some levels of carbonate concentration in the oceans you get carbonate minerals to start precipitating out. In regions where plant growth is not limited by nutrients or water (as is often the case) some plants will experience enhanced growth (though a lot of them are bad ones, like poison ivy) and will take up more CO2.

    I pulled "thousand of years" out of my ear. Maybe it is tens or hundreds of thousands, but I still suspect, that at some point in the near future (near for geological time), that things will return to equilibrium.
    At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

    All moderation in purple - The rules

  30. #60
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,599
    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I don't know, but I suspect at some point other mechanisms start coming into play. For example, at some concentration of water in the atmosphere you start increasing cloud formation, which will block the sun. At some levels of carbonate concentration in the oceans you get carbonate minerals to start precipitating out. In regions where plant growth is not limited by nutrients or water (as is often the case) some plants will experience enhanced growth (though a lot of them are bad ones, like poison ivy) and will take up more CO2.

    I pulled "thousand of years" out of my ear. Maybe it is tens or hundreds of thousands, but I still suspect, that at some point in the near future (near for geological time), that things will return to equilibrium.
    I guess that is right and then there is the orbit variation which if I remember correctly gives us about another 10,000 years or more toward the next Ice Age. I think that rather like the lottery over the scale of 10,000 years there might be at least one more big impact as a surprise. I must admit my perspective is limited to decades or less but I still expect to experience the effects of global warming.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •