Global warming in 2100

[Roger E. Moore]

You have not mentioned the East side of Antarctica, glaciers moving faster, or did you? Maybe i missed it. It’s summer there now of course.

Augh, yes, you are right. Saw it, read it, forgot about it. Will post if I get original article or someone beat me to it.

[Roger E. Moore]

You might be asked about this in a discussion of rising sea levels. Never thought about this issue.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1219133236.htm

Why is sea level rising faster in some places along the US East Coast than others?

Date: December 19, 2018
Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Sea levels are rising globally from ocean warming and melting of land ice, but the seas aren't rising at the same rate everywhere. Sea levels have risen significantly faster in some US East Coast regions compared to others. A new study reveals why.

The reason is a phenomenon called "post-glacial rebound," explains Chris Piecuch, lead author of a study published on Dec. 20, 2018, in the journal Nature. Essentially, land areas in the Northern Hemisphere that once were covered by mammoth ice sheets during the last Ice Age -- such as Canada and parts of the Northeast U.S. -- were weighed down like a trampoline with a boulder on it. At the same time, land around the periphery of the ice sheets -- along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, for example -- rose up. As the ice sheets melted from their peak at the Last Glacial Maximum 26,500 years ago, the weighed-down areas gradually rebounded, while the peripheral lands started sinking, creating sort of a see-saw effect. Even though the ice sheets had disappeared by 7,000 years ago, the see-sawing of post-glacial rebound continues to this day.

[profloater]

The same is happening along the English south coast and possibly all uk as the rebound continues, yet the Thames barrier may get breached sooner than it was designed for.
https://21stcenturychallenges.org/the-thames-barrier/

[profloater]

The same is happening along the English south coast and possibly all uk as the rebound continues, yet the Thames barrier may get breached sooner than it was designed for.
https://21stcenturychallenges.org/the-thames-barrier/

Correction, it’s Scotland rising while southern England is sinking. Like a seesaw. So sea levels at the estuary are rising in a combined attack of land sinking and seas rising.

[Roger E. Moore]

Not going to offer too much in the way of quotes, as the content of this article could be disturbing, but the concept would explain a lot. Kind of like a fire sale: Everything must go!


https://phys.org/news/2019-01-climat...y-species.html

Climate change: Effect on sperm could hold key to species extinction
January 8, 2019 by Kris Sales, The Conversation

QUOTES: Currently, we have a disturbingly limited knowledge of which biological traits are sensitive to climate change and therefore responsible for local extinctions. However, a potential candidate is male reproduction, because a range of medical and agricultural studies in warm blooded animals have shown that male infertility happens during heat stress.

[[Article goes on to prove its point.]]

LATE ADD: Occurs to me that this would almost completely explain insect extinctions, as the focus of the article is on the same.

[profloater]

Not going to offer too much in the way of quotes, as the content of this article could be disturbing, but the concept would explain a lot. Kind of like a fire sale: Everything must go!


https://phys.org/news/2019-01-climat...y-species.html

Climate change: Effect on sperm could hold key to species extinction
January 8, 2019 by Kris Sales, The Conversation

QUOTES: Currently, we have a disturbingly limited knowledge of which biological traits are sensitive to climate change and therefore responsible for local extinctions. However, a potential candidate is male reproduction, because a range of medical and agricultural studies in warm blooded animals have shown that male infertility happens during heat stress.

[[Article goes on to prove its point.]]

LATE ADD: Occurs to me that this would almost completely explain insect extinctions, as the focus of the article is on the same.

Not sure about insects, but many fish are sex-determination-sensitive to temperature, including some we like to eat.

[weather guesser]

Extra energy is retained by the planet and it results in the storm tracks being colder in the winter. Think about where are the storm tracks and how do their sfc temperature averages affect regional averages?

[Swift]

The February 25 issue of Chemical & Engineering news had a review article on the various technologies for carbon capture.

LINK

Enter “negative-emissions technologies,” a term but a few years old. NETs are methods that physically and chemically remove CO2 or other gases from the atmosphere. Today, a handful of technologies capture emitted CO2 before it ever reaches the atmosphere. NETs would extract CO2 or other gases directly from the air, change land-use practices to plant more carbon-sequestering trees and plants, and aggressively use natural systems to remove CO2 from the environment.

NETs would not relieve the world of the need to cut emissions, but they could ease the path to reach net zero emissions by 2050—the timeline that the United Nations Environment Programme says is necessary to keep the global temperature rise below 2 °C, the original goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Emission cuts and NETs “are two tools in the same toolbox,” says Stephen Pacala, an ecology and environmental biology professor at Princeton University who chaired a 2018 US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine study of NETs. “They both are necessary and are likely to coexist for a long, long time.”

In the following sections, C&EN examines some NET approaches that are just getting underway. Whether they will be able to scale up to meet the need is an open question. The numbers are staggering: globally, nearly 50 billion metric tons (t) of greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere annually, the UN Environment Programme estimates. Of those emissions, about 37 billion t is CO2 and the rest is mostly methane. And even with various efforts in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global CO2 emissions increased by nearly 3% in 2018.

The technologies that are discussed are air capture, bioenergy, mineralization, geological sequestration, and planting of plants.

[Roger E. Moore]

Maybe our Alaskan members could offer comment on the local weather there....

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-alaska...d-climate.html

Alaska bakes under heat wave linked to climate change
by Jocelyne Zablit ,, March 30, 2019

Alaska residents accustomed to subzero temperatures are experiencing a heat wave of sorts that is shattering records, with the thermometer jumping to more than 30 degrees Fahrenheit (16.7 Celsius) above normal in some regions.

[Roger E. Moore]

Maybe our Australian members.... well, same thing. Comments?

http://www.spacedaily.com/afp/190401....blipo2sw.html
Australia heat wave enters fourth month in a row

[Roger E. Moore]

Another milestone passed on the way to having an ice-free Arctic Ocean.

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-transp...e-nursery.html

The transpolar drift is faltering — sea ice is now melting before it can leave the nursery
by Alfred Wegener Institute, April 3, 2019

The dramatic loss of ice in the Arctic is influencing sea-ice transport across the Arctic Ocean. As experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research report in a new study, today only 20 percent of the sea ice that forms in the shallow Russian marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean actually reaches the Central Arctic, where it joins the transpolar drift; the remaining 80 percent of the young ice melts before it has a chance to leave its "nursery." Before 2000, that number was only 50 percent.

[Roger E. Moore]

Alaska, the cutting edge of climate change.

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climat...s-survive.html

Climate change forcing Alaskans to hunt for new ways to survive
by Jocelyne Zablit

"I am a hunter and a fisherman and I have spent my whole life living the subsistence lifestyle," Church, 55, a member of the Yupik Eskimo community, told an AFP team that recently visited the remote village of about 700 people that sits by the Bering Sea and the Kuskokwim Bay. "I have travelled all over the region, going on 10-day hunting and fishing trips out in the mountains," he added. "We grew up in a time when winter was actual winter, when our elders remember snow drifts as high as the peaks of people's houses. Today, we're lucky to even get half an inch of snow on the ground."

[profloater]

Alas Alaska, also the Ross ice shelf down south is melting.
https://www.ecowatch.com/ross-ice-sh...636000573.html
this is news that Ross is melting 10 times faster than expected and it is though the ice shelf holds back the large glaciers from sliding faster into the warmer seas.

[Roger E. Moore]

Siberia is warming up, too, and quite a lot. 84oF last weekend.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/it-was-8...end-1834756641

[Noclevername]

Our warmest regards to our descendants.

[Spacedude]

Another mile stone, carbon dioxide reaches 415 ppm -

https://www.sciencealert.com/it-s-of...-human-history

[Noclevername]

Advocates also need to keep teaching and reminding the public that climate is not weather, that adding energy to a chaotic system makes it more chaotic, that "global warming" does not mean even heating but fits and starts and positive feedback loops. So a cold winter does not make climate change "a myth".

[profloater]

Advocates also need to keep teaching and reminding the public that climate is not weather, that adding energy to a chaotic system makes it more chaotic, that "global warming" does not mean even heating but fits and starts and positive feedback loops. So a cold winter does not make climate change "a myth".

right but I find the message needs to be more detailed. The pattern of weather in any place is the local climate in public understanding and definition. The global picture means more variability and more extremes in all local climates which adds up to "climate change" . Therefore I think the message "climate is not weather" is not actually helpful because it is counterintuitive and factually wrong. We need to be educating at a more advanced level to get understanding. It also has to a message aimed at policy makers primarily.

[Noclevername]

right but I find the message needs to be more detailed. The pattern of weather in any place is the local climate in public understanding and definition. The global picture means more variability and more extremes in all local climates which adds up to "climate change" . Therefore I think the message "climate is not weather" is not actually helpful because it is counterintuitive and factually wrong. We need to be educating at a more advanced level to get understanding. It also has to a message aimed at policy makers primarily.

Well, ideally, but let's start with the basics and get the simple messages out there first.

[publiusr]

I don't think Bill Nye using a torch on a globe helped--that would be the scenario from Niven's "Inconstant Moon." The tens years or it is too late to act isn't helpful either.
Some 66 million years ago, Earth survived a blast equal to 21–921 billion Hiroshima A-bombs after all.

[Noclevername]

What, then, do you think would be helpful?

[Swift]

I don't think Bill Nye using a torch on a globe helped--that would be the scenario from Niven's "Inconstant Moon." The tens years or it is too late to act isn't helpful either.

Here is just the bits Bill Nye did. (warning, adult language)

This was part of a bigger story that John Oliver was doing on his program about climate change, carbon taxes, etc. (warning, politics). The Nye segment was a pretty typical way that John Oliver takes an irreverent and comical look at serious issues.

So, as NCN said, what would be helpful? Calm discussion doesn't seem to be doing much.

Some 66 million years ago, Earth survived a blast equal to 21–921 billion Hiroshima A-bombs after all.

And that event killed off about three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth (LINK). Is that the yardstick we should measure against, as long as we're not as bad the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event, we're doing well?

No one is claiming the current climate change event is going to kill all life on the planet. But, by most standards, it will be bad, for both humans and non-humans (see all the rest of this thread). And personally I think it is already too late to halt even the change we've seen so far; at best, our actions over the next few decades will limit how bad it will get.

[Noclevername]

I have heard various sources say that some radical changes to our industrial/farming complex could sequester larger amounts of carbon as biomass. I am not remotely qualified to evaluate the validity of such claims. Nor am I at all confident that such changes would ever be allowed by our present society.

Sources will have to wait, RL calls

[Swift]

I have heard various sources say that some radical changes to our industrial/farming complex could sequester larger amounts of carbon as biomass. I am not remotely qualified to evaluate the validity of such claims. Nor am I at all confident that such changes would ever be allowed by our present society.

Sources will have to wait, RL calls

In post 128 I posted a link to a scientific review of carbon capture technologies.

[Noclevername]

In post 128 I posted a link to a scientific review of carbon capture technologies.

Thanks.

[Roger E. Moore]

I'm pretty good with living near the Appalachians, but those of you nearer the coasts might check this out. Don't buy land in Florida or New Orleans!

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/21/healt...ntl/index.html

[Noclevername]

Or NYC, Providence, London, Naples....

[Swift]

I suppose that the issue of coastal flooding and land purchases will depend on many things, including whether those areas are already doing something about flood control, are those controls adequate, are there plans for future improvements, etc. The Netherlands is world renowned for their skills on such things and I have read various pieces and seen various TV programs about efforts to adopt around the world.

One example, Providence, Rhode Island put in flood control structures for hurricanes after a very bad storm in the 1950s flooded downtown. I recall New York City (post hurricane Sandy) was making efforts to begin dealing with such things.

On the flip side, people still build houses on barrier islands, and those aren't hurricane proof even without global warming.

[Noclevername]

Tornado activity in the Midwestern US since the 50s. It rises in fits and starts but the trend is mostly upwards.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201813

[publiusr]

I thought tornadoes might make Canada more of a home, with the jet moving northwards. Edmonton was hit not long ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_tornado

And personally I think it is already too late to halt even the change we've seen so far.

I hope not. Maybe this will help:
https://www.sciencealert.com/new-art...to-liquid-fuel

"'The goal here is to produce complex, liquefiable hydrocarbons from excess CO2 and other sustainable resources such as sunlight,' says chemist Prashant Jain from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign."