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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #961
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    State of South Carolina just canceled training classes for state employees. Appears someone w/ CV was in training building in Columbia. Everyone thrown out and sent home in seconds.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Mar-13 at 06:32 PM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  2. #962
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Maybe an increase in cases of contact dermatitis from all the handwashing, as well.
    You joke, but I scraped the knuckles on my left hand sometime last week, and it is still sore plus dry/itchy due to the frequent scrubbing and sanitizing.
    Maybe I should follow washing with application of antibiotic ointment to cover the sore.


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  3. #963
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Maybe an increase in cases of contact dermatitis from all the handwashing, as well.
    Yes, not happy about the powerful hand blowers in the airport facilities. A blower like that can distribute particles all over the room in seconds. But, look the death rate in my age group is only 10% so the odds are better than winning any lottery. The hand sanitisers are alcohol based, but is it safe to inhale? Only joking folks, keep washing those hands!
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  4. #964
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    Dry cereal, bread, eggs, Pop-Tarts, paper plates, water, soups, canned veggies, rice, sauces, jelly, PB, canned meats, refrigerated meats, frozen pizzas. snack bars, all selling out at this Wal-Mart as I watch. It's the shopping apocalpse.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Mar-14 at 12:20 AM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #965
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    Seems to be getting more mainstream:


    Doctors push for treatment of coronavirus with blood from recovered patients

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...ients-n1158476

  6. #966
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Dry cereal, bread, eggs, Pop-Tarts, paper plates, water, soups, canned veggies, rice, sauces, jelly, PB, canned meats, refrigerated meats, frozen pizzas. snack bars, all selling out at this Wal-Mart as I watch. It's the shopping apocalpse.
    I've stocked up on the most critical of all: cat food.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  7. #967
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    On the subject of stockpiling. I live in the UK in a mainly working class area of the town . Lots of people who are on benefits of one sort or another. Our local shops show no evidence of hoarding or people stockpiling. Yet the major supermarkets in the town have empty shelves, strongly correlated with whatever the media has been reporting as being stockpiled. My theory is that people local to me simply don't have the money available to waste it on stockpiling goods. They live largely hand to mouth.
    Whether this will turn out for the best remains to be seen.
    There are maybe 10 to 20 people infected locally from a population of around 200,000.

  8. #968
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    I've stocked up on the most critical of all: cat food.
    We get automatic deliveries through Chewie. Huge boxes.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  9. #969
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    My government has decided it wants to kill me:

    Apparently I am one of the herd to be slaughtered/
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  10. #970
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    My government has decided it wants to kill me:

    Apparently I am one of the herd to be slaughtered/
    Or not. Herd immunity is a good thing. You won't help herd immunity if you die. And eventually we're all going to need herd immunity.

    Grant Hutchison

  11. #971
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    So it's OK if hundreds of thousands of the most vulnurable die?
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  12. #972
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    So it's OK if hundreds of thousands of the most vulnurable die?
    That is so not what herd immunity means!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  13. #973
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    So it's OK if hundreds of thousands of the most vulnurable die?
    And on that note, I'll leave this thread.

    Grant Hutchison

  14. #974
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    Herd immunity works with vaccines, not with active viruses.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  15. #975
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    Well, we got home to the UK, just before the total shut down it seems. Despite the risk of death, it is tempting to just get on with it, get over it and move on. The alternative is creeping around while the virus becomes endemic, thus just putting off the evil day. Human trialled vaccines seem to be at least a year away. A week of working from home is one thing, we will do it for the sake of everyone else having been on five flights to get here, but I cannot see us avoiding contact for a year. So what now is the right personal strategy? Different, I think, from any national strategy to pace the infection rate to manage hospital beds.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  16. #976
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    Herd immunity works with vaccines, not with active viruses.
    No, I think the idea is growth of immunity to the point where R0 is less than 1 and the epidemic peters out.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  17. #977
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    Yes and in the process lots of people die.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  18. #978
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    Herd immunity works with vaccines, not with active viruses.
    It doesn’t? Why not? I am practicing a certain amount of social distancing. With luck, herd immunity will make it less likely that I will get sick, or if I get sick, hopefully I can get past the peak so if I need help, and if it really gets tricky, the specialized treatments will be available. That could also give them more time to test anti-virals or produce the artificial antibody treatments.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

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  19. #979
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    For herd immunity to work, 60% of the UK needs to contract the virus. Assuming a fatality rate of 0.7%, that means a death toll of 279,300.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  20. #980
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    For herd immunity to work, 60% of the UK needs to contract the virus. Assuming a fatality rate of 0.7%, that means a death toll of 279,300.
    Maybe, maybe not, but it is certain that some people will die. What do YOU plan to do? What are YOUR options? What is your strategy to maximize the chances you’ll get through it okay?

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  21. #981
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    Shutting down the country until the virus passes, rigorously testing everyone to get an adequate sample of infections, and tracing people's movements to ensure the path of the infection is charted. In short, what South Korea is doing.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  22. #982
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    Shutting down the country until the virus passes, rigorously testing everyone to get an adequate sample of infections, and tracing people's movements to ensure the path of the infection is charted. In short, what South Korea is doing.
    Actually, I was asking what YOUR strategy was, not your government’s. Sure, you can petition your government about what you think they should do, but I would suggest it would be best for you to think about what you can and will be doing for yourself.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  23. #983
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    I keep myself to myself at the best of times, I wash my hands to avoid infecting others, and try to keep track of those I love. In all honesty I don't really care what happens to me. I care if a government goes against all medical advice and puts its people at risk for no apparent reason.
    Last edited by parallaxicality; 2020-Mar-14 at 08:44 PM.
    "Occam" is the name of the alien race that will enslave us all eventually. And they've got razors for hands. I don't know if that's true but it seems like the simplest answer."

    Stephen Colbert.

  24. #984
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    Yes and in the process lots of people die.
    I don’t know exactly what the UK government, but I think that the argument for herd immunity goes like this. In the ideal situation, you gather all the healthy young people together and infect them. Few die because they are not the vulnerable ones. Then they go back to their towns and interact with the elderly, but have immunity so they prevent the vulnerable from getting it. So the epidemic goes by with a low fatality rate.

    I think that’s the logic. Whether it would really work out that way is a whole other question. I personally am happy with the “try to slow the spread” strategy.
    As above, so below

  25. #985
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    Public service announcement:
    In Germany and France, ICU physicians have noticed that the common thread amongst young patients needing #COVIDー19 related ICU admission is that they had been using NSAIDS (Advil, Motrin, Aleve, Aspirin).
    https://twitter.com/samira_jeimy/sta...85284332408832

    This is being posted and discussed on twitter and also reported by the French media. From what I understand, the anti-inflammatory aspect of these drugs is a problem. Plus developing a fever is necessary for the immune system to fight the virus.

    Others are calling it fake news or selection bias (those with symptoms would be likely to be taking the drugs anyway).

    Paracetamol is probably a safer bet at the moment.

    Paracetamol is acetaminophen AKA Tylenol / Panadol.

  26. #986
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    Quote Originally Posted by parallaxicality View Post
    Shutting down the country until the virus passes, rigorously testing everyone to get an adequate sample of infections, and tracing people's movements to ensure the path of the infection is charted. In short, what South Korea is doing.
    I don't think you're considering what "shutting the country down" really entails. For example, closing schools and colleges. Do you really think that a bunch of kids suddenly given extra time off are going to to self isolate? How are people supposed to survive with no income, no access to food and medical supplies, etc.
    A shut down can only be partial, so who chooses?

    I think a reasonable approach by the UK government would be to instantiate a week long public holiday, with pay. They can compensate employers and encourage people to tack on another week from their own holiday entitlement.

    That should give a breathing space for current infections to manifest without too much public interaction.

  27. #987
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    Quote Originally Posted by headrush View Post
    https://twitter.com/samira_jeimy/sta...85284332408832

    This is being posted and discussed on twitter and also reported by the French media. From what I understand, the anti-inflammatory aspect of these drugs is a problem. Plus developing a fever is necessary for the immune system to fight the virus.

    Others are calling it fake news or selection bias (those with symptoms would be likely to be taking the drugs anyway).

    Paracetamol is probably a safer bet at the moment.

    Paracetamol is acetaminophen AKA Tylenol / Panadol.
    I don't think a Twitter account with 412 followers carries much weight.
    Have you heard the actual public announcement from other sources?

  28. #988
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    I don't think a Twitter account with 412 followers carries much weight.
    Have you heard the actual public announcement from other sources?
    Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises
    French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...irus-infection

    I think the precautionary principle pertains.

  29. #989
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    Dashboard showing reported cases of coronavirus in the UK, including new cases, cases by upper tier local authority in England and number of deaths.

    Desktop version

    Mobile version

    Accessed from https://www.gov.uk/government/public...onavirus-cases on 15th March 2020

  30. #990
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    AFP news:

    Austria bans gatherings of more than five people over #coronavirus
    IMHO small group isolations like this are the only measures which can have any effect at reducing/eliminating a pandemic.
    OTH larger scale boarder closures have basically no effect whatsoever once there are exponential transmissions established within boarders which seems to be the case in most countries.
    My 2 cents.

    ETA Sound of Music

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