Page 19 of 51 FirstFirst ... 9171819202129 ... LastLast
Results 541 to 570 of 1507

Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #541
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    The BBC reports that in addition to Iran's deputy health minister being diagnosed w/ COVID-19 after appearing ill on TV, the gov't will not quarantine any city. This despite a rising death toll and heavy travel between Iran and China. The medical system is said to be weak and religious opposition to quarantine is strong. With new cases in Italy spread now from Lombardy to Sicily, it is my uncomfortable fear that the genie left the bottle a while ago.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  2. #542
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    Y'all might want to check the stock market, btw.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #543
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    3,493
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    ... it is my uncomfortable fear that the genie left the bottle a while ago.
    From a news report on Saturday:

    Coronavirus COVID-19 vaccine days away from animal testing, Queensland researchers believe

    Researchers at the University of Queensland (UQ) have said they are just days away from testing a new vaccine for coronavirus, or COVID-19, on animals.
    ...
    "It is not a race between vaccine producers, it is a race against this particular virus".

    "It is a new territory for vaccine design. Vaccines take many years to develop from concept to licence and use in the community.
    "What we are aiming for is somewhere between 12 and 18 months, which is remarkably quick."

    Dr Young said the UQ team had developed 100 different versions of a protein to work out which would be most effective against the virus.

    He said they now planned to conduct pre-clinical trials (including animal testing) and hoped to undertake human trials by the middle of the year.

    "Those trials are testing that the vaccine actually induces the immune response we are expecting to start manufacturing in levels that are high enough and in a pure enough state such that we can put them into humans, " he said.
    Quarantine and avoidance measures will now buy time in the race-against-the-clock, methinks.

  4. #544
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    WHO total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally: 80,239 confirmed (908 new)

    China: 77,780 confirmed (518 new), 2,666 deaths (71 new)

    Outside of China: 2,459 confirmed (390 new), 33 countries (4 new), 34 deaths (11 new)

    Death rate outside of China: 0.0138 (CFR: 1.38%)
    Death rate inside of China: 0.034276 (CFR: 3.4%)
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  5. #545
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    3,493
    Virus emergency blueprint: Australia pulls trigger on pandemic plan:

    The Australian government has activated its emergency response plan to an impending coronavirus pandemic, foreshadowing fever clinics, fast-tracked vaccines and severe pressure on hospitals, blood banks, medical supplies and mortuaries.

    Dubbed "The COVID-19 plan", the blueprint outlines a strategy in the event of a large-scale coronavirus outbreak as world leaders and biosecurity experts warn a pandemic is almost inevitable.
    ...
    "[But] we don't wish to induce panic food or petrol stockpiling ... when for 95 per cent of the population, this will be a mild cold," he {Professor Nigel McMillan, director in Infectious Diseases and Immunology at Griffith University} said.
    It seems the 'Initial Action Plan' was triggered more than a month ago, however .. on January 21 .. That's a pretty slow 'trigger'!?

  6. #546
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    1,946
    I am reading on other fora the speculation that, with both Covid-19 and MERS in the Middle East that they might hybridize?
    Possible?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  7. #547
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    37,470
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    I am reading on other fora the speculation that, with both Covid-19 and MERS in the Middle East that they might hybridize?
    Possible?
    Don't hybrids require sexual reproduction? I don't think viruses can merge that way.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  8. #548
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    18,700
    Quote Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
    Don't hybrids require sexual reproduction? I don't think viruses can merge that way.
    I claim no expertise, but my understanding is that sometimes two related viruses can infect the same cell at the same time and the result can be a new virus with mixed genetic material. This apparently is the reason why China is often a source of novel flu viruses, as farms there often have ducks or other birds and pigs in close proximity. Bird flu viruses usually don't infect humans, but can infect pigs. On the other hand, humans and pigs can apparently both be infected easily by similar flu viruses. A pig occasionally can get a double infection that results in a novel flu virus that can infect people and it can be novel enough to pose a threat. Hence, the named “swine flu,” “bird flu” etc.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  9. #549
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    18,700
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    I am reading on other fora the speculation that, with both Covid-19 and MERS in the Middle East that they might hybridize?
    Possible?
    My guess would be that it would be possible but unlikely unless both become common enough so there would be a decent chance of people getting double infections. I have no idea how likely it is that a double infection would result in a new virus but it would have to go on to infect a good number of other people before anyone would notice.

    "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." — Abraham Lincoln

    I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

    The Leif Ericson Cruiser

  10. #550
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Clear Lake City, TX
    Posts
    12,857
    From Matador Travel Security:

    UPDATED February 26 2020:
    … COVID-19 is spreading in Europe, the Middle East and other parts of the world, including cases in North Africa (Algeria) and South America (Brazil) attributed to travellers from Italy. More deaths have been reported in Italy, while South Korea has now reported 1,146 cases with 12 deaths, most of them in and around the city of Daegu. In Italy there have been more than 320 cases with 10 fatalities, still mostly in the Lombardy region. …

    Traveller temperature and medical screenings are occurring in airports and other border entry points worldwide. There is no consistent guidance as to what the screening protocols are in each country, nor the consequences of being suspected as symptomatic of an illness. Travellers manifesting any flu-like or respiratory symptoms may be required to have a medical examination and risk being quarantined pending evaluation.

    Travellers who are feeling unwell or affected by any flu-like symptoms are strongly recommended to delay all travel regardless of destination. ...

    Latest developments:

    Clusters outside of China continue to grow. In South Korea there are now a reported 1,146 cases with 12 deaths. Meanwhile, Iran's death toll has risen to 16 among 95 reported cases. In Italy there are a reported 322 cases with ten known deaths. The majority of the cases have been found in Lombardy, and a number of cases have also also been reported in Veneto and Emilia Romagna regions. Movement restrictions are in place in the municipalities of Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Maleo, Fombio, Bertonico, Castelgerundo, Terranova dei Passerini, Somaglia and San Fiorano (all Lombardy region) and Vo Euganeo (Veneto region). It is now forbidden to enter or leave the outbreak areas, without special permission from the authorities.

    Health ministers from France, Germany, Italy and the EU Commission have committed to keeping European borders open however guidance is being issued for travellers from northern Italy to self-quarantine on return home. For a comprehensive list of current screenings and travel restrictions, including flight reductions and suspensions, please follow this link and review as often as necessary if planning travel: https://pandemic.internationalsos.co...​​

    The total recorded cases in China currently stands at 78,064 with 2,715 fatalities. Outside of China the number of confirmed cases now stands at 2,941 with 47 fatalities in 41 countries: Afghanistan, Algeria (new), Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, ​​​​​​​Brazil (new), Cambodia, Canada, ​​​​​​​Croatia, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Oman, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland (new), Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. Updated figures can be found on Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracking map.​​​​​​​ ...

    Measures introduced by the United States on February 2 remain in effect. Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who has been to Hubei province in the previous 14 days, will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine. This applies only to U.S. citizens who have been in Hubei province in the past 14 days, prior to their attempted entry into the United States. Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who has been in the rest of Mainland China within the previous 14 days will undergo proactive entry health screening at a select number of ports of entry, and up to 14 days of monitored self-quarantine. Additionally, the President has signed an act temporarily suspending the entry into the United States of foreign nationals who pose a risk of transmitting COVID-19. As a result, foreign nationals – other than immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents – who have travelled in China within the last 14 days, will be denied entry into the United States. ...
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
    Isaac Asimov

    You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They don’t alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.
    Doctor Who

    Moderation will be in purple.
    Rules for Posting to This Board

  11. #551
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    13,108
    The reported numbers demonstrate diminishing rates overall. I wish these results were true for outside of China.

    Daily rates.jpg
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  12. #552
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    1,946
    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    The reported numbers demonstrate diminishing rates overall. I wish these results were true for outside of China.

    Daily rates.jpg
    Maybe because China was the only one with the guts to do what had to be done to get R0 below 1?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  13. #553
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    WHO SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

    Globally 81,109 confirmed (871 new)

    China 78,191 confirmed (412 new), 2,718 deaths (52 new)

    Outside of China 2,918 confirmed (459 new), 37 countries (4 new), 43 deaths (9 new)

    Death rate inside China: 0.03476 (CFR 3.476%)
    Death rate outside China: 0.014736 (CFR 1.474%)

    It's out, it's free, game over.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-27 at 01:28 AM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  14. #554
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  15. #555
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,837
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    It's out, it's free, game over.
    I take it the WHO turned down your application for the post of Press Officer.

    Grant Hutchison

  16. #556
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    14,088
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    [b]

    China 78,191 confirmed (412 new), 2,718 deaths (52 new)
    And it's going to be a long thing, apparently. The number of new cases is holding steady in China at about 400 or 400 per day. Since China has a population of about a billion, it will take 2.4 million days for everyone to get infected, or about 6,500 years.

    And even on a flow basis, there are about 50,000 people born in China every day, so the number of people dying per day, about 50, is hardly making a dent in the population growth.

    Seriously, though, what I think the situation in China demonstrates is that it is containable to some extent, if not perfectly. The number of cases in China was really starting to take off, but then with the quarantine measures and cancellations of meetings and that kind of thing, the rate of increase has been kept down. So I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that similar things will happen in other countries. Lots of events are being cancelled in Japan now, and companies are planning to have people work from home.
    As above, so below

  17. #557
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    13,108
    I caught on tv Dr. Siegel speaking from the Nebraska Med Center and he stated a couple things of interest...

    1) The symptoms for Covid-19 are shortness of breath and coughing, dissimilar to key flu symptoms (temp. and fatigue).
    2) Viral treatments seem to be working. [To what degree and on how sick their few patients are where this treatment helps was not stated.]
    3) The spring weather should cause this outbreak to subside.

    I also heard on a business channel, that China is offering $1,400 to those in Hubei (province) who will voluntarily submit to testing.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  18. #558
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norfolk UK and some of me is in Northern France
    Posts
    8,961
    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    I caught on tv Dr. Siegel speaking from the Nebraska Med Center and he stated a couple things of interest...

    1) The symptoms for Covid-19 are shortness of breath and coughing, dissimilar to key flu symptoms (temp. and fatigue).
    2) Viral treatments seem to be working. [To what degree and on how sick their few patients are where this treatment helps was not stated.]
    3) The spring weather should cause this outbreak to subside.

    I also heard on a business channel, that China is offering $1,400 to those in Hubei (province) who will voluntarily submit to testing.
    Seeing the Iran minister suggests fever is a sign as well as breathing problems and coughing. The weather in Iran is quite warm but the virus is spreading there. Where is the evidence that the warm weather will halt it? It is not a universal viral characteristic.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  19. #559
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Clear Lake City, TX
    Posts
    12,857
    From Matador Security

    UPDATED February 27 2020:

    Latest developments:

    Clusters outside of China continue to grow. In South Korea there are now a reported 1,595 cases with 13 deaths. Meanwhile, Iran's death toll has risen to 22 among 141 reported cases. In Italy there are a reported 453 cases with 12 known deaths. The majority of the cases have been found in Lombardy, and a number of cases have also also been reported in Veneto and Emilia Romagna regions. Movement restrictions are in place in the municipalities of Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Maleo, Fombio, Bertonico, Castelgerundo, Terranova dei Passerini, Somaglia and San Fiorano (all Lombardy region) and Vo Euganeo (Veneto region). It is now forbidden to enter or leave the outbreak areas, without special permission from the authorities.

    Taiwan on Thursday raised its epidemic response level to the highest Taiwan's Central News Agency has reported. Taiwan has logged 32 cases of the coronavirus and one death, and has largely suspended travel and tourism links with China to curb its spread.

    In India the authorities have imposed further travel restrictions. Travellers of all nationalities that have passed through mainland China since 15 January, including those that enter via border crossings with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan, may be denied entry or quarantined. Additionally, all travellers that have passed through South Korea, Iran and Italy since 10 February may face quarantine upon entering India. Travellers affected by the aforementioned restrictions should reconfirm their itineraries, visa status and the overall feasibility of travel to India prior to departure. For a comprehensive list of current screenings and travel restrictions, including flight reductions and suspensions, please follow this link and review as often as necessary if planning travel: https://pandemic.internationalsos.co...​​

    The total recorded cases in China currently stands at 78,497 with 2,744 fatalities. Outside of China the number of confirmed cases now stands at 3,673 with 60 fatalities in 46 countries: Afghanistan, Algeria, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, ​​​​​​​Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, ​​​​​​​Croatia, Denmark (new), Egypt, Estonia (new), Finland, France, Georgia (new), Germany, Greece (new), Hong Kong, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Norway (new), Oman, Pakistan (new), the Philippines, ​​​​​​​Romania (new), Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. Updated figures can be found on Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracking map.
    So looking at those numbers, the mortality rate in China is ~3.5%; outside China, ~1.6%.
    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
    Isaac Asimov

    You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They don’t alter their views to fit the facts. They alter the facts to fit their views.
    Doctor Who

    Moderation will be in purple.
    Rules for Posting to This Board

  20. #560
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    1,946
    I have heard speculation that this could be like dengue in that getting a second case is much worse than the first. Is that likely?
    SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

  21. #561
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Nowhere (middle)
    Posts
    37,470
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Seeing the Iran minister suggests fever is a sign as well as breathing problems and coughing.
    The CDC agrees.
    "I'm planning to live forever. So far, that's working perfectly." Steven Wright

  22. #562
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,837
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Seeing the Iran minister suggests fever is a sign as well as breathing problems and coughing. The weather in Iran is quite warm but the virus is spreading there. Where is the evidence that the warm weather will halt it? It is not a universal viral characteristic.
    Fever and a dry cough are the presenting symptoms. Most people do not experience breathing problems.
    There is no evidence yet that warm weather will reduce transmission, but it's a plausible assumption based on the transmission of other coronaviruses, and other diseases spread by droplet spray. If R0 does go down in warm weather, the disease becomes correspondingly easier to contain. If it goes below 1, then the disease peters out on its own.

    Grant Hutchison

  23. #563
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I take it the WHO turned down your application for the post of Press Officer.

    Grant Hutchison
    I coulda been a contendah.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  24. #564
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    4,319
    My guess is that COVID can reappear next flu season. Yes? No?
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  25. #565
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,837
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
    I have heard speculation that this could be like dengue in that getting a second case is much worse than the first. Is that likely?
    Speculation based on evidence? Or just Random Dumb Tweeting?

    The dengue viruses are in a different viral family from coronaviruses. Most of us have had multiple coronavirus infections during our lives.

    Grant Hutchison

  26. #566
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    13,108
    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Seeing the Iran minister suggests fever is a sign as well as breathing problems and coughing. The weather in Iran is quite warm but the virus is spreading there. Where is the evidence that the warm weather will halt it? It is not a universal viral characteristic.
    It's possible I only assumed, erroneously, temperature was mentioned as a flu-like condition, though I know fatigue was mentioned not so associated with Covid-19. [I will double check this claim.]
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  27. #567
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,837
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    My guess is that COVID can reappear next flu season. Yes? No?
    Depends.
    Flu doesn't disappear and reappear on a global scale--there's a pool of seasonal flu viruses switching back and forth between hemispheres. Here in the UK, we look at the strains causing flu in Australia during our summer, and prepare our vaccines accordingly, because the viral surface antigens vary from year to year.
    So if coronavirus is eliminated globally, it's gone. If it shows seasonality then it might switch hemispheres like flu. But eventually there'll be enough people with antibodies to COVID-19 (through exposure or vaccination) to drive R0 below 1 with minimal interventions, and then it's gone. Or it might start swapping surface proteins with other coronaviruses, so we end up having to tailor our vaccine to the current seasonal strain. So lots of possibilities. If it turns out be be seasonal, which we don't know.

    Grant Hutchison

  28. #568
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    13,108
    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Most of us have had multiple coronavirus infections during our lives.
    I think the public would be surprised to learn this fact. Though not so lethal, isn't the common cold a coronavirus?
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  29. #569
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,837
    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    I think the public would be surprised to learn this fact. Though not so lethal, isn't the common cold a coronavirus?
    The "common cold" isn't a specific disease entity--it's a set of symptoms caused by many kinds of virus, including coronaviruses. It's just a common way for viruses to make a living--settling in the warm damp environment of the upper respiratory tract, causing a bit of inflammation that leads to fever and hypersecretion, spreading on the droplet spray.

    Grant Hutchison

  30. #570
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    NEOTP Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    3,028
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Y'all might want to check the stock market, btw.
    I did, thanks. Pass the aspirin please.

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •