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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #1201
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    Has anyone else noticed how people talk about "these times" and "lately" and "under the current circumstances" and "as things are now", etc., instead of saying plague, pandemic, pestilence, etc.? Naming the present situation as a general event, not a specific one.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Countries will get the message that shut down gives a two week pause for the hospitals to catch up while production of ventilators will continue, even if started late.
    Northern Italy has been in lockdown for about a month, and the health system in Lombardia is collapsing under the strain.

    Although neighbouring Veneto took a more aggressive approach to identifying and isolating cases and has it under much greater control. The whole country is now under the most restrictive measures. These were supposed to end on April 3rd, but this has been extended (with no specified end date).

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    Wuhan coming out of lockdown soon.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/chin...-outbreak.html
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Northern Italy has been in lockdown for about a month, and the health system in Lombardia is collapsing under the strain.

    Although neighbouring Veneto took a more aggressive approach to identifying and isolating cases and has it under much greater control. The whole country is now under the most restrictive measures. These were supposed to end on April 3rd, but this has been extended (with no specified end date).
    UK locked down in theory but ignorers crowding onto tube trains in London. Here, people are respecting the two metre rule in shops. Several manufacturers have switched to making ventilators, eg racing car company inOxfordshire. I hope someone distributes plans for 3D printing components. Ventilators will be key in coming weeks.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    My new project manager says her daughters - HS freshmen - are making cotton surgical masks. Yeah, they're homemade so less than ideal, but they're giving them to a veterinarian who has agreed to donate his factory-made supply to a local hospital.
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    Note how Taiwan And Singapore have controlled numbers ,
    I use the Johns Hopkins map.
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Has anyone else noticed how people talk about "these times" and "lately" and "under the current circumstances" and "as things are now", etc., instead of saying plague, pandemic, pestilence, etc.? Naming the present situation as a general event, not a specific one.
    Folks around here are just being straight and calling it "the pandemic" or "the COVID-19 outbreak", or are using humorous over- or under-statement--in the last couple of days I've encountered "the current inconvenience" and "the Coming Apocalypse" (the latter from a frontline medic).
    I think in general, as I've mentioned before under other circumstances, people in my part of the world are less given to euphemism than our American counterparts (I report that only as an observation, not an implied criticism).

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Folks around here are just being straight and calling it "the pandemic" or "the COVID-19 outbreak", or are using humorous over- or under-statement--in the last couple of days I've encountered "the current inconvenience" and "the Coming Apocalypse" (the latter from a frontline medic).
    I think in general, as I've mentioned before under other circumstances, people in my part of the world are less given to euphemism than our American counterparts (I report that only as an observation, not an implied criticism). Grant Hutchison
    Think I read something about euphemistic terms for the bubonic plague in Camus's The Plague, but cannot find it while flipping through. Sure I saw it, same stuff as people I know are calling it.

    Those who here call it the Coming Apocalypse are rather serious, in a Revelations sort of way. Cannot convince them otherwise.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    And then as there are more people that have gotten over it, more people will be able to safely go to work where they would come into heavy contact with others. For instance, I can’t really imagine a dentist working in heavy isolation gear.
    I've been trying to make the point that we cannot look for widespread immunity until there are vaccines, such a situation would represent a complete failure to combat the disease. Sure, you might get 1% of people immune, but how is that going to return the economy to effective functioning? It only makes sense for certain low-skill high-risk tasks that immune people could be repurposed to do. But for an entire economy, that's just not going to be the answer-- the answer has to be finding sustainable ways to function that keep R0 around 1. The measures you mentioned that Singapore are doing are worth watching, and whatever China decides to do. We must all learn from what works. Meanwhile, in the US we have high-profile leaders saying that keeping the elderly alive must come at the expense of the collapse of the economy, and grandma wouldn't want that. It's like he's not even aware there is a world out there trying things, and they are aware that collapsing one's healthcare system is not good for the economy. It's scientific thinkers versus ignoramuses, all over again.

    The reality is, we have to get through the next year without any economies collapsing, and without any healthcare systems collapsing. It's not either or, it's two crucial goals, and it will require smart choices made by economists and doctors working together, acting in conditions of uncertain information, but we have a lot of data to look at-- if we understand scientific thinking in the first place.
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Mar-24 at 03:03 PM.

  10. #1210
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    I note India has gone into lockdown for 21 days, people may not leave their homes.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    For some reason in the US right now a new dialog has emerged, the "dollars vs. lives" issue-- I'm not kidding, that's exactly the language we're seeing now, as though there was a choice between saving the economy or saving the people, like a nation is something other than a collection of people and dollars exist to do something other than serve people.
    I'm quoting Ken G but this warning is for everyone.

    This is a very hot-button political issue (at least in the US) and is not appropriate for CQ. If that limits the discussion, then so be it. Drop it now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Those who here call it the Coming Apocalypse are rather serious, in a Revelations sort of way.
    Again, perhaps that's common in your part of the world, but it's vanishingly rare in these parts, and my colleague who recently used the phrase would be horrified if anyone imagined for a moment he meant it as a literalist reference to the Book of Revelation.

    Grant Hutchison

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    I'm wondering if there isn't some type of immunity to Covid-19 desease, that we are not detecting. If the virus SARS-cov2 is airborne for 8 hours, it is likely that it is floating around at very low density or if we are exposed to very few fomites. Perhaps if we are being exposed to just a few virus at a time, it gives our immune system time to fight the disease and at such a low intensity that we do not even know we have it. The reason I mention this, is that the disease seems to be clamped down in China, Korea, Japan, and other areas, which does not seem possible to me.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    Some more analysis of the significance of close intergenerational contact:
    https://voxeu.org/article/intergener...fatality-rates

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I'm wondering if there isn't some type of immunity to Covid-19 desease, that we are not detecting. If the virus SARS-cov2 is airborne for 8 hours, it is likely that it is floating around at very low density or if we are exposed to very few fomites. Perhaps if we are being exposed to just a few virus at a time, it gives our immune system time to fight the disease and at such a low intensity that we do not even know we have it. The reason I mention this, is that the disease seems to be clamped down in China, Korea, Japan, and other areas, which does not seem possible to me.
    Where did you get that figure of eight hours? While SARS-CoV-2 can remain viable in artificially maintained fine aerosols for many hours, the evidence seems to be that it is actually spread by droplet spray, which falls out of the air very quickly indeed. Survival on the surface the droplets land on is then a key consideration, and why we should all be wiping surfaces and trying not to cough on things.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Again, perhaps that's common in your part of the world, but it's vanishingly rare in these parts, and my colleague who recently used the phrase would be horrified if anyone imagined for a moment he meant it as a literalist reference to the Book of Revelation. Grant Hutchison
    South Carolina is different. I will let it go at that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Where did you get that figure of eight hours? While SARS-CoV-2 can remain viable in artificially maintained fine aerosols for many hours, the evidence seems to be that it is actually spread by droplet spray, which falls out of the air very quickly indeed. Survival on the surface the droplets land on is then a key consideration, and why we should all be wiping surfaces and trying not to cough on things.

    Grant Hutchison
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-...mHwR0GD9f9Yxhc
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    About silver nanoparticles
    This WHO article discusses how silver can act in water to kill bacteria, but comes out against drinking it.

    Then the next study discusses work on viruses using silver
    https://www.who.int/water_sanitation...32018.pdf?ua=1

    While the next is a sample reference to silver nanoparticles inhibiting a virus

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6264685/

    https://www.ingentaconnect.com/conte...00002/art00003

    Conclusion, while silver is toxic to viruses, it is not recommended to drink “colloidal silver” as sold. The dose however is unlikely to cause problems such as argyria, the typical 10 to 100 ppm, even if genuine, produce tiny concentrations in the body. While silver is then found in many organs it is orders of magnitude away from the doses used in out of body, test tube research.
    Thus, more or less homeopathic, it’s a placebo and quite expensive.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Ah right. That's specifically about aerosol-generating medical procedures. Physiology is good at generating large droplets (which fall out quickly) and bad at generating aerosols (small droplets that stay suspended for longer). But if you start applying mechanical pressure devices to someone's airway, you can generate aerosols--another reason that health care personnel are at higher risk than the general population.
    Out in the community, you're not going to see these kinds of aerosols, with the exception of people on home ventilation or CPAP.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    <snip> The reason I mention this, is that the disease seems to be clamped down in China, Korea, Japan, and other areas, which does not seem possible to me.
    I don't know why it doesn't seem possible to you, since this is along the lines that everyone is predicting. China is just a month or more ahead of the US in where they are on the curve; they already went through the rapid rise in cases, and the efforts on social distancing, and are now coming out the other side (so to speak).

    South Korea has been very aggressive on testing and tracking individual contacts and seems to have just done a good job in getting ahead of this (I've read many articles on this from various sources) and I think it has been discussed in this thread.

    I don't know what the situation is in Japan, so I can't speak to that.
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    An NBC news article about South Korea

    News that China had reported its first case of the coronavirus was enough reason for South Korean leaders and medical staff to brace themselves for the worst.

    “Acting fast was the most important decision South Korea made,” said Hwang Seung-Sik, a professor at Seoul National University’s Graduate School of Public Health.

    By early February, the first test was approved. Active collaboration among central and regional government officials and medical staff transpired before cases began piling up, enabling South Korea’s current testing capacity of 20,000 individuals per day at 633 different sites, including drive-through centers and even phone booths.

    This collaborative effort was just 11 days after “Patient 31,” a member of a secretive religious group called the Shincheonji Church, caused an explosion of infections in Daegu, a major city 170 miles southeast of Seoul.

    Early testing meant early detection of infections in South Korea, where a relatively larger proportion of cases exhibited either no symptoms or very mild ones, according to Hwang.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Swift View Post
    I don't know why it doesn't seem possible to you, since this is along the lines that everyone is predicting. China is just a month or more ahead of the US in where they are on the curve; they already went through the rapid rise in cases, and the efforts on social distancing, and are now coming out the other side (so to speak).

    South Korea has been very aggressive on testing and tracking individual contacts and seems to have just done a good job in getting ahead of this (I've read many articles on this from various sources) and I think it has been discussed in this thread.

    I don't know what the situation is in Japan, so I can't speak to that.
    And, even in Italy, it seems that the Veneto region did a much better job of tracing contacts, testing and isolating people and have had far fewer cases than neighbouring Lombardia. So getting on top of it early and effectively seems to be crucial. (Doesn't solve the problem that we have no credible "exit plan" until a vaccine is available or herd immunity is slowly built up.)

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    The apparent (at least for the most part) immunity of children to Covid-19, somehow reminded me of this Star Trek episodes which was rarely aired. Not particularly relevant to the bcurrent pandemic but probably relevant to the general subject and perhaps a mind-break some may find beneficial:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miri...iginal_Series)

    BTW I never liked this episode either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    And, even in Italy, it seems that the Veneto region did a much better job of tracing contacts, testing and isolating people and have had far fewer cases than neighbouring Lombardia. So getting on top of it early and effectively seems to be crucial. (Doesn't solve the problem that we have no credible "exit plan" until a vaccine is available or herd immunity is slowly built up.)
    I would really like to see an antibody test for a random group, large group of people, perhaps 10000 people, who never had symptoms. Natural behavior like social distancing may account for having the infection stop in China.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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    A paper, most recent revision today, which suggests coronavirus establishes strong community spread only within a narrow climatic band:
    Findings: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50ºN corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11ºC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m³). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel.
    Grant Hutchison

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    Shades of The Andromeda Strain.

    (It only liked a certain pH range).

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    A paper, most recent revision today, which suggests coronavirus establishes strong community spread only within a narrow climatic band:
    Maybe a bit premature(?) ...
    There are also reports that big populations such as Brazil appear to be only now just starting to get underway with counting cases(?)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Van Rijn View Post
    Jens, could you put in a reminder of what those numbers mean (rate of deaths with respect to . . .?) and where you are getting them? I looked back at earlier posts, but didn’t see an explanation.
    Sure, it's from the WHO Situation Reports.

    https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

    There are issues with the statistics, because they are from governments and for example, the CDC doesn't notify them on the weekends so there are never any new deaths in the US during the weekend but a spike on Mondays. But still, I'm just looking at the trend.

    The numbers are simply the number of new deaths divided by total deaths. So it's basically a marker of how fast the disease is spreading (the slope of the growth curve). I chose to look at deaths rather than infections because (though there is a time lag) it's less dependent on how many people you test.
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    A paper, most recent revision today, which suggests coronavirus establishes strong community spread only within a narrow climatic band:
    Perhaps that might also help explain why there have been so few cases in Russia, despite proximity to China. Doesn't seem to be true in the US, the worst places are New York and New Orleans, which seem quite different conditions, and New Orleans is generally humid by I don't know about this time of year. But I do have a sense that there is some explanation for why it explodes in some places. Could just be a random Pareto type effect involving superspreaders, causing an illusion that an explanation is required.
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Mar-25 at 03:12 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Perhaps that might also help explain why there have been so few cases in Russia, despite proximity to China. Doesn't seem to be true in the US, the worst places are New York and New Orleans, which seem quite different conditions, and New Orleans is generally humid by I don't know about this time of year. But I do have a sense that there is some explanation for why it explodes in some places. Could just be a random Pareto type effect involving superspreaders, causing an illusion that an explanation is required.
    Since we are throwing out ideas. Notice how most of the worst countries are mediterranean countries France, Spain, Italy, only other really bad one is Iran. Could be the different diet as well. They eat a low inflammatory diet, Russia eats an inflammatory high saturated fat diet very little fruits and vegetables.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

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