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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #1261
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    Re China (just as a rough snapshot/baseline on China's overall health status as a nation):

    Published on the WHO site: China - Country Cooperation Strategy:

    Looking ahead China faces two key challenges: the need to address major health disparities and inequities; and the coming rise of noncommunicable diseases largely due to changing dietary and lifestyle factors. Social determinants such as living conditions, lifestyles, choice of occupation, consumer behaviour and individual values are undergoing profound changes. There are large variations in health-care access and health outcomes between urban and rural areas, population groups (e.g. migrants, residents and ethnic groups) and geographic areas (e.g. east and west).

    The incidence of NCDs has risen sharply and is influenced by high rates of tobacco use, physical inactivity, unhealthy diets and excessive alcohol intake. Each year more than 3 million people die prematurely in China, from NCDs. Mental health, injuries and road safety and the impact of environment and climate change on human health are other key issues.
    My underlines .. also sets a (very?) rough context of the culture for the communicable epidemic, I suppose(?)

  2. #1262
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    And .. for Russia:

    Cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of death in the country, accounts for more than half of all deaths in Russia. A combination of economic growth,
    the behavioural changes that followed the transition of the 1990s and preventive programmes have resulted in a 20% decrease in mortality from this cause since 2003, yet the rate is still double that of western Europe. Control of cardio-metabolic and behavioural risk factors is a high priority in health promotion in the Russian Federation.
    ...
    2.2.2 Risk Factors
    Although the mortality profile of the Russian Federation is similar to that of high- income countries, the risk factor dynamics are different.
    despite the number of positive changes, prevalence of alcohol abuse and tobacco consumption remains high. According to the 2009 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (11), 60.2% of Russian men and 21.7% of women are smokers. Each year, by various expert estimates, 350 to 500 thousand people die prematurely from tobacco-related causes. The highest proportion of alcohol-attributable mortality in the world is found in the Russian Federation and neighbouring countries, where every fifth death among men and 6% of deaths among women are attributable to the harmful use of alcohol. Both are strongly associated with mortality from cardiovascular, digestive and respiratory diseases, and alcohol is also linked to injuries and poisoning.
    A significant factor of mortality and disability, road traffic crashes cause considerable socioeconomic losses and therefore continue to be a major threat to social development. The Russian Federation reported 20 136 deaths resulting from traffic accidents in 2013, and more than half the victims were people of economically active age (15Ė44 years).
    Their Covid-19 case count (when I posted this) was only 658 reported .. (which seems suspiciously small when compared with the rest of the European continent).

  3. #1263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Selfsim View Post
    Their Covid-19 case count (when I posted this) was only 658 reported .. (which seems suspiciously small...
    Not great, not terrible.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I may have many faults, but being wrong ain't one of them. - Jimmy Hoffa

  4. #1264
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    Its a little more difficult to assess Italy's backgound health (as a snapshot) but here is a summary breakdown of what seems to be their main health concerns.

    The summary gives a breakdown on mortalities: Cardiovascular (36%), other NCDs (18%), cancers (27%), chronic respiratory (6%), etc. Total NCD deaths are about 0.5 million per annum.
    The projected 2020 trends for males smoking is 27% of the total population, females about 18%.

  5. #1265
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    But they donít know what superspreader is, of course I have no idea. But some people shed more virus. Who would know?
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  6. #1266
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    That's very retro of you.
    Well, I joined this board the same year as you did, so I guess it goes without saying that I'm not a teenager.

    I don't think there were any Over-the-counter painkillers other than Aspirin when I was a teenager in Persia.
    Since then I've never had a pain or fever that 3 Aspirins wouldn't remedy other than toothaches which have required perception grade medications.
    I have never had any adverse results from Aspirin.
    So if it's not broken no need to fix it (Sort-of-speak).
    Last edited by a1call; 2020-Mar-25 at 10:58 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Selfsim View Post
    New Orleans just had Mardi Gras celebrations.
    Yeah that might have something to do with it, though honestly I think the worst offenders are often from out of town.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Selfsim View Post
    There are quite a few suspect statistics .. even from the John Hopkins site. The various source(s) of the actual data may be of interest. The JH site says:
    The reported Chinese 'new infections' stats seemed to almost stop around the same time as someone attempted to change the 'Covid-19' designation(?)
    My state, the original epicenter in the USA, has utterly dropped the ball on reporting, with no data newer than Monday and I'd say that's suspect. Linky.
    Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.

  9. #1269
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    ... perception grade medications.
    This is medicine so strong it will make you see things that aren't there.
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

  10. #1270
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    This is medicine so strong it will make you see things that aren't there.
    I wonder if vision problems causing missed autocorrection is a side effect of taking Aspirins.
    Nah, I could never spell anything properly in any of the three languages I am fluent in.

  11. #1271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Yeah that might have something to do with it, though honestly I think the worst offenders are often from out of town.
    I've never personally experienced that Mardi Gras, but I understand there are typically lots of transient visitors attending it (at least, I mean, that's what the New Orelans public officials are saying).

  12. #1272
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
    My state, the original epicenter in the USA, has utterly dropped the ball on reporting, with no data newer than Monday and I'd say that's suspect. Linky.
    My heart goes out to you there Trebuchet ... I really hope the community pulls together to help eachother .. best wishes in the way forward.

  13. #1273
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    But they don’t know what superspreader is, of course I have no idea. But some people shed more virus. Who would know?
    Seeing as its just a media report, I'd say the media might be attempting to redefine that particular term as being everything they perpetually pick on him about ..

  14. #1274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Selfsim View Post
    Seeing as its just a media report, I'd say the media might be attempting to redefine that particular term as being everything they perpetually pick on him about ..
    I don't really understand what you're saying, perhaps because I didn't get what the post you're responding to what referring to. Who is "him"? A certain superspreader?
    As above, so below

  15. #1275
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    Couple of more pennies:
    In the hindsight, obviously humanity has been one step behind/too-late in containing this pandemic, moving to more and more extreme isolation measures such as closing boarders and banning travel only after significant local/within-boarders infections, thus rendering these measures ineffective. IMHO this might be a classic case of Garbage-in-Garbage-out based on the (perhaps) wrong assumption that asymptomatic-infected individuals are not major transmitters of this disease. There was a time not that long ago that health authorities would confidently/authoritatively state that asymptomatic individuals could/would not infect others. As more and more community-spreading is observed in many locales some of these same health authorities would state that such transmission while possible is not considered to be a major method of transmission. I think that until such time that the health authorities realize that asymptomatic transmission is possibly very much one of the main modes of transmission, they are doomed to fail to reverse the existing quarantines if the asymptomatic-transmission-assumptions are false. Otherwise containing the outbreak would have been easily achieved by now.
    As such the outbreak could easily be contained within any given area by moving pairs of boarders/limits/lines of impenetrable nature, along the said area. People could only pass from a hot-zone to the intermediate-zone if they are asymptomatic. People could only pass through the intermediate zone to the free-zone if they have stayed asymptomatic for long enough to have recovered from the disease if infected. The lines could be systemically moved to shrink the hot-zone/s to 0 span.
    The more number of intermediate zones, the more reliable such an approach will be.
    Such an approach could eradicate Covid-19 in a matter of weeks rather than dragging it out for months.
    IMHO
    Last edited by a1call; 2020-Mar-26 at 01:31 AM.

  16. #1276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I don't really understand what you're saying, perhaps because I didn't get what the post you're responding to what referring to. Who is "him"? A certain superspreader?
    Prince Charles of the British Royal Family has tested positive for Coronavirus. The nature of his job (or that of any senior royal) means he could be a superspreader. He has gone into isolation. Apparently Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, has not tested positive as yet.

  17. #1277
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    The New York Times has produced a series of interactive charts that show various scenarios for number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths when the inputs are manipulated for the US or the world. No subscription required. You can adjust for length of intervention, intervention level, impact of warm weather in U.S., intervention date, infectiousness, share requiring hospitalization and death rate.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

  18. #1278
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    Has anyone heard anything about the corona virus being able to shut down B cells. Basically shutting down part of the immune system? As far as I know older people already have diminished T cell function.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  19. #1279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    Has anyone heard anything about the corona virus being able to shut down B cells. Basically shutting down part of the immune system? As far as I know older people already have diminished T cell function.
    When you say "shut down," you mean that it infects and kills them, or that it doesn't present antigens that cause them to react? I haven't heard that at all, and am not sure why you are thinking it might. Is there some evidence that makes you suspect that?
    As above, so below

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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    The more number of intermediate zones, the more reliable such an approach will be.
    Such an approach could eradicate Covid-19 in a matter of weeks rather than dragging it out for months.
    I see a number of potential issues. For example, if you declare most of New York City a hot zone, and don't let anyone in or out, how do you continue to supply food? If you let trucks in, but not out, you'll end up overcrowding your hot zones. And of course, since there's been relatively little testing to actually know where cases are, there's a pretty strong likelihood that no matter where you try to draw your disease free zones, there are probably people already infected inside those zones, you just don't know it yet.
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

  21. #1281
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    A paper, most recent revision today, which suggests coronavirus establishes strong community spread only within a narrow climatic band:


    Grant Hutchison
    Do you have a link for that paper Grant?

  22. #1282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    When you say "shut down," you mean that it infects and kills them, or that it doesn't present antigens that cause them to react? I haven't heard that at all, and am not sure why you are thinking it might. Is there some evidence that makes you suspect that?
    I heard it from a friend, but cannot find any information on it.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  23. #1283
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Do you have a link for that paper Grant?
    It's here. My apologies, I thought I had embedded a link in my original post.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Question about [B]benzalkonium chloride[B]:

    The EU guidance listed benzalkonium chloride as something that is likely effective against Covid-19:

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...facilities.pdf

    Also BK is effective against other enveloped viruses, like influenza viruses.

    But if you google it now, its effectiveness against CV is in doubt. I am a bit miffed about this because I made quite a heavy investment in BK-based products many months back, in preparation. Also it is much kinder to the skin on your hands compared to repeated alcohol gel rubs.

    Any thoughts -have I wasted my money ?

  25. #1285
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    It's here. My apologies, I thought I had embedded a link in my original post.

    Grant Hutchison
    Thanks a lot Grant

  26. #1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I heard it from a friend, but cannot find any information on it.
    Maybe you need to ask your friend for a reference. Hopefully it won't be a friend of your friend.

    Grant Hutchison

  27. #1287
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Question about [B]benzalkonium chloride[B]:

    The EU guidance listed benzalkonium chloride as something that is likely effective against Covid-19:

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...facilities.pdf

    Also BK is effective against other enveloped viruses, like influenza viruses.

    But if you google it now, its effectiveness against CV is in doubt. I am a bit miffed about this because I made quite a heavy investment in BK-based products many months back, in preparation. Also it is much kinder to the skin on your hands compared to repeated alcohol gel rubs.

    Any thoughts -have I wasted my money ?
    I like the alcohol gels better. Some are easier on your hands than others. I have to apply hundreds of times per day because of my job. Find the kind that works for you. I find the quaternary ammonium compounds hand sanitizers harsher. I also fine other problems with them with as many times as I have to use them. The foam alcohol ones really dry out my skin.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  28. #1288
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    It's here. My apologies, I thought I had embedded a link in my original post.

    Grant Hutchison
    hmmm...Norway is way up the league table in cases per head of population, but this paper implies it would've been too cold ?

    Also have a question about humidity: I would've thought low humiditys was bad for a virus, because it would desiccate faster. It seems the reverse is true and that low humidity actually enhances its survival ?

    Putting that aside it doesn't look good for the UK or New York March to April. Hope we have a heatwave this summer !

  29. #1289
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    Quote Originally Posted by Copernicus View Post
    I like the alcohol gels better. Some are easier on your hands than others. I have to apply hundreds of times per day because of my job. Find the kind that works for you. I find the quaternary ammonium compounds hand sanitizers harsher. I also fine other problems with them with as many times as I have to use them. The foam alcohol ones really dry out my skin.
    I have some sore patches and even a little crack in the skin on my little finger. I've been using alcohol gel a lot over the past few months, every time I have been in any retail premises etc.

    Front of hands fine, the skin there seems to take it, but not the back of the hands.

    Now we are in lockdown, not using it, so hopefully my hands get time to recover before I have to get supplies.

  30. #1290
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    hmmm...Norway is way up the league table in cases per head of population, but this paper implies it would've been too cold ?

    Also have a question about humidity: I would've thought low humiditys was bad for a virus, because it would desiccate faster. It seems the reverse is true and that low humidity actually enhances its survival ?

    Putting that aside it doesn't look good for the UK or New York March to April. Hope we have a heatwave this summer !
    Norway is also shut down pretty well. Italy, note the now declining new cases figure is maybe three weeks ahead of UK and maybe four weeks ? Ahead of USA. In Europe Germany is doing well with its testing and contact tracing strategy. Shut down is all very well, but testing is better, it seems from the figures.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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