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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #1591
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    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

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    US.jpg

    We can now begin to see some reduction in the total number of cases as more and more recover.
    US net cases.jpg

    FWIW, here is a linear trend but it's safe to say the future will not be linear. I tried a 2nd and 3rd order polynomial trend and they are about as bad if not worse in attempting a realistic predictive determination. But it's still helps see we are on the right trend, regardless.
    US trend.jpg
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  3. #1593
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    Ah, that's a clever technique! Heating the food after making steam or very hot droplets then re-heating the water with the food should make it more efficient at reducing or eliminating the virus. The first link in my prior post claims (perhaps true) that a temp. of 56C (132F) greatly reduces the active virions.

    56C isn't very hot, so even if somewhat true, close to 100C should really cause reduction.
    In a microwave, water. Becomes a heat pump, the latent heat once vapourised transfers to any colder mass.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    In a microwave, water. Becomes a heat pump, the latent heat once vapourised transfers to any colder mass.
    Yes, its high specific heat allows it to hold its punch longer, though getting food in quickly is important. The less additional heating the better as I don't like soggy hamburgers.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  5. #1595
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    I haven't updated the CFR chart in a while, so here it is and it's interesting to see three separate general results. China is at 4%.

    CFR2.jpg

    The x-axis are the days of each month since Feb. 11th.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  6. #1596
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    I haven't updated the CFR chart in a while, so here it is and it's interesting to see three separate general results. China is at 4%.

    CFR2.jpg

    The x-axis are the days of each month since Feb. 11th.
    Everything is still going up, no matter where graphed, except for a short hiccup in France.

    Was cleaning out the wet vacuum cleaner when my cell phone gave off the alert signal for 20 seconds. I didn't bother looking, but considered it could be either a nuclear attack or a tornado. The former was something I could do nothing about, as the nearest military bases was over 100 miles away, and I lived in a trailer home and would be dead anyway in a hit. A tornado... meh, will go check soon. Didn't know what the weather was. Phone went off a second time, and I put down the cleaning tools and went to read the message, in all caps.

    EXTREME ALERT. GO HOME. STAY HOME. VIRUS IS SPREADING IN ALL SC COUNTIES. STAY SAFE.

    "I already KNEW that!" I growled at the phone, then went back to cleaning out the wet vac. The phone went off a third time. I went to get it.

    Same message, but I had forgotten to press "OK". I pressed it.

    "What a stupid age," I said, and went back to work a third time.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  7. #1597
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    Yes, its high specific heat allows it to hold its punch longer, though getting food in quickly is important. The less additional heating the better as I don't like soggy hamburgers.
    It is the latent heat that does it, it can make bread soggy.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Everything is still going up, no matter where graphed, except for a short hiccup in France.
    Right, though China and S. Korea are reporting less than 100 new cases per day (average over many weeks).

    EXTREME ALERT. GO HOME. STAY HOME. VIRUS IS SPREADING IN ALL SC COUNTIES. STAY SAFE.

    "I already KNEW that!" I growled at the phone, then went back to cleaning out the wet vac. The phone went off a third time. I went to get it.
    I suppose that shout-like message is helpful to a few folks who may hate watching the news, perhaps, but frustrating for those who do.

    The reason I started doing graphs was to see a better picture of the spread, as in the warning you got. The typical charts are not helpful especially since they show astronomical-like graphs of daily case totals and death totals, which do not reveal the actual rate of improvement or worsening. If my care is doing 100 mph, I want to know if the pedal I'm pressing is producing deceleration or not, especially if everyone is saying there is a cliff ahead.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    If my care is doing 100 mph, I want to know if the pedal I'm pressing is producing deceleration or not, especially if everyone is saying there is a cliff ahead.
    Your care is doing just fine.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    It is the latent heat that does it, it can make bread soggy.
    So you're saying, I think, that the water vapor with above average latent heat has enough time to get into the bun far enough before condensing, thus making the bun soggy.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  11. #1601
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Your care is doing just fine.
    Oops, car... I was typing 100 mph.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  12. #1602
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    So you're saying, I think, that the water vapor with above average latent heat has enough time to get into the bun far enough before condensing, thus making the bun soggy.
    Well the latent heat is your usual 193 cals per g, (from memory), but each molecule of vapour travels very fast to any colder place where it delivers, very fast, its latent heat of evaporation. That’s why steam is so effective. So I imagine it would destroy viruses while it is heating the bun and the condensed water makes it soggy.But the same happens to water already in the bun.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  13. #1603
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Century Schizoid Man View Post
    Even notwithstanding all of this, though, I'm not sure why a large business would necessarily have cash reserves that would last longer than small firms. If we have two very similar firms, except that one is ten times larger than the other, then all other things being equal, the larger firm would have about ten times the cash reserves as the small one. But they also have ten times the expenses coming due every month. So if their revenues drop off sharply, the length of time their cash reserves will last would be similar.
    But they can easily downsize. If you have 1000 workers, you can lay off, say, 1/10 of them and probably still function pretty well. If you have 2 workers, it's none, or half, and you might not be able to pick up that load. I believe this is the big economic question going forward, will businesses be able to retain a workforce and stay in business, or will high unemployment be required to keep the businesses in business. In the UK, they are paying the businesses to keep their workers, but that's not the plan in the US-- the money goes straight to the workers and they will likely be out of work for awhile. Perhaps some places will be able to get through with temporary pay cuts, but no one likes to get a pay cut. I do recall a story my grandparents tell about the Great Depression though-- they said one day my granddad went to work and was told "you're not being fired but your salary is now 1/2 what it was yesterday." A few weeks later, the same thing happened again. That was what the Depression was like.
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Apr-08 at 01:17 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Sorry to be dim about this, but in what way is that different from normal life? Doesn't everyone usually have separate food? Do families in the USA routinely ransack each other's plates at mealtime?
    Ransack is a strong word, but it would not be odd to say, "I don't want the rest of this, are you still hungry/thirsty?" But if you said that with a cold, expect a sharp reproach!

  15. #1605
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    The light in the end of the tunnel is already here (well in Wuhan, but in this point in time).
    From BNO News:
    WATCH: Chinese city of Wuhan, where coronavirus pandemic began, lifts lockdown
    Crowds flock to train station as Wuhan lifts coronavirus lockdown - AFP
    BREAKING: Chinese city of Wuhan, where coronavirus pandemic began, lifts outbound travel restrictions, ending months-long lockdown - Xinhua

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    But they can easily downsize.
    Can they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    If you have 1000 workers, you can lay off, say, 1/10 of them and probably still function pretty well.
    Maybe, if you are in a jurisdiction where it is easy to lay people off, they don't have contracts saying you have to pay them for a while anyway, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    If you have 2 workers, it's none, or half, and you might not be able to pick up that load.
    If you can't do things like adjust their hours, as many small business do have people on that sort of arrangement. In fact, there are jurisdictions where small business are specifically exempt from many of the labour regulations that apply to large businesses.

    In the meantime, your rent is still coming due, your lease payments, all your other bills. Whether you are big or small.
    A: "Things that are equal to the same are equal to each other"
    B: "The two sides of this triangle are things that are equal to the same"
    C: "If A and B are true, Z must be true"
    D: "If A and B and C are true, Z must be true"
    E: "If A and B and C and D are true, Z must be true"

    Therefore, Z: "The two sides of this triangle are equal to each other"

  17. #1607
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    Let's focus on Corona and COVID-19 please, and not on economics.
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  18. #1608
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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    Well the latent heat is your usual 193 cals per g, (from memory), but each molecule of vapour travels very fast to any colder place where it delivers, very fast, its latent heat of evaporation. That’s why steam is so effective. So I imagine it would destroy viruses while it is heating the bun and the condensed water makes it soggy.But the same happens to water already in the bun.
    In numbers it’s 540 cals per g. Latent heat of vaporisation. (Approx) So consider 10 grams of water from the fridge near 0. It takes 1000 cals to get it to 100C, then 5400 cals to evaporate, 6400 total. Convert to Joules, x 4.2, about 38000 joules. If a microwave is 800 watts, that’s 800 J/s it takes about 44 seconds. That water vapour will then flash heat any surface cooler than 100, turning back to water.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

  19. #1609
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Ransack is a strong word, but it would not be odd to say, "I don't want the rest of this, are you still hungry/thirsty?" But if you said that with a cold, expect a sharp reproach!
    Ah. War-time rationing casts a long shadow in the UK. My generation was raised to finish what was on their plate and be glad of it, and in later life never to buy or prepare more food than we're going to eat. It has resonated into the next generation, too, in my family at least. Having food left on your plate that you had to tout around would only be acceptable behaviour if you were actually unwell!
    I have a vague phobia about potential food waste. We travelled on a ship a couple of years ago that used to lay out a lavish buffet every lunchtime, and the mere sight of it used to switch off my appetite entirely (compounded by the sight of people ladling huge heaps of food on to their plates). After a few days I just skipped lunch for the rest of the voyage.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    So you're saying, I think, that the water vapor with above average latent heat has enough time to get into the bun far enough before condensing, thus making the bun soggy.
    You are better off leaving the bun out, or toasting it. The bun is damp already, the water in the bun heats it and that softens the bun structure, indeed will recover an old bun. The microwaves also heat fats but water absorbs most of the microwaves if there is water in or around the food. The latent heat flash heating does require enough time to boil the water.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    I have a vague phobia about potential food waste. We travelled on a ship a couple of years ago that used to lay out a lavish buffet every lunchtime, and the mere sight of it used to switch off my appetite entirely (compounded by the sight of people ladling huge heaps of food on to their plates). After a few days I just skipped lunch for the rest of the voyage.
    Yeah, I've done "all inclusive" vacations and it is a bit daunting the food waste. Still, it's nice not to have to constantly reach for one's wallet! I tended to have the opposite response from you-- I feel like I better help with eating all that stuff!

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    Meanwhile, the effects of smoking on COVID-19 are not coming out as expected. https://www.healio.com/primary-care/...id-19-severity reports that smoking does not increase death risk from COVID-19, perhaps because despite the obvious lung vulnerabilities associated with it, there are compensating benefits. Given that the lung vulnerabilities tend to be due to long-term smoking effects, whereas the compensating benefits might be more short-term, to me this study suggests non-smoking health care workers might wish to step outside for a puff during their breaks-- if they get those.

    This also means the higher death rate in men in China is not because a lot more men smoke there. It also suggests that the tragically high death rate in western Europe is not due to smoking. Which still leaves us with the question, why do men die more, and why is the death rate so terrible in western Europe?

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    You are better off leaving the bun out, or toasting it. The bun is damp already, the water in the bun heats it and that softens the bun structure, indeed will recover an old bun. The microwaves also heat fats but water absorbs most of the microwaves if there is water in or around the food. The latent heat flash heating does require enough time to boil the water.
    Ah, toasting the bun is the way to go.
    We know time flies, we just can't see its wings.

  24. #1614
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Meanwhile, the effects of smoking on COVID-19 are not coming out as expected. https://www.healio.com/primary-care/...id-19-severity reports that smoking does not increase death risk from COVID-19, perhaps because despite the obvious lung vulnerabilities associated with it, there are compensating benefits. Given that the lung vulnerabilities tend to be due to long-term smoking effects, whereas the compensating benefits might be more short-term, to me this study suggests non-smoking health care workers might wish to step outside for a puff during their breaks-- if they get those.

    This also means the higher death rate in men in China is not because a lot more men smoke there. It also suggests that the tragically high death rate in western Europe is not due to smoking. Which still leaves us with the question, why do men die more, and why is the death rate so terrible in western Europe?
    I wish I knew but early action does correlate. My thoughts are, about the Oxford model: we know for sure the virus is very easy to catch so I would expect a high R0 but the rate of serious cases is not so high, so maybe it is right that many infected people show no signs but are still spreading the virus. So maybe it follows that herd immunity is growing. And seriousness is either dose related or a new factor about the immune over reaction.
    sicut vis videre esto
    When we realize that patterns don't exist in the universe, they are a template that we hold to the universe to make sense of it, it all makes a lot more sense.
    Originally Posted by Ken G

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Ah. War-time rationing casts a long shadow in the UK. My generation was raised to finish what was on their plate and be glad of it, and in later life never to buy or prepare more food than we're going to eat. It has resonated into the next generation, too, in my family at least. Having food left on your plate that you had to tout around would only be acceptable behaviour if you were actually unwell!
    I think that here in the US, many restaurants have figured out that the food is only a smallish portion of the cost of delivering a meal in a restaurant, and so it's remarkably common for restaurants to try to make it seem like you're getting a "good deal" by giving you significantly more food than you can comfortably eat. That's pretty predictable, though, so if I'm planning on sharing food because of that, I'd usually do so up front, before it's become (potentially) contaminated by someone else eating half of it. And I'd be pretty uncomfortable drinking out of the same glass or sharing utensils with someone else, even if the other person did not appear to be sick.
    Conserve energy. Commute with the Hamiltonian.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken G View Post
    Meanwhile, the effects of smoking on COVID-19 are not coming out as expected. https://www.healio.com/primary-care/...id-19-severity reports that smoking does not increase death risk from COVID-19, perhaps because despite the obvious lung vulnerabilities associated with it, there are compensating benefits.
    There have been a few of these now. I posted a link to another such analysis earlier in the thread. We know that the lung changes of smoking make one more likely to be infected by a respiratory virus, so the fact that smokers are underrepresented among hospital admissions suggests that there must be a big undetected bunch who get mild disease. So ACE-2 upregulation with smoking may be protective against the ACE-2 downregulation caused by severe COVID-19.

    Grant Hutchison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    I think that here in the US, many restaurants have figured out that the food is only a smallish portion of the cost of delivering a meal in a restaurant, and so it's remarkably common for restaurants to try to make it seem like you're getting a "good deal" by giving you significantly more food than you can comfortably eat.
    Yeah. I hate that--the mere sight of the vast plateful of food makes me want to leave the table. I try to be polite, but occasionally I can see the server flinch at the expression on my face. I always request small portions in American restaurants, and usually still end up with more food than I want. We used to visit Alaska fairly regularly (less so since the whole "crazy guy with a hunting rifle in the car park" episode), and I used to just eat one meal a day when we were there.

    Grant Hutchison

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    COVID-19 Reinfection Risk Questioned After Low Antibody Levels Detected. Chinese scientists are hoping to find out whether recovered coronavirus patients have a higher risk of reinfection, after finding low levels of antibodies in people discharged from hospital in a small, preliminary study.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...ed/ar-BB12jB2B
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    Quote Originally Posted by profloater View Post
    I wish I knew but early action does correlate. My thoughts are, about the Oxford model: we know for sure the virus is very easy to catch so I would expect a high R0 but the rate of serious cases is not so high, so maybe it is right that many infected people show no signs but are still spreading the virus. So maybe it follows that herd immunity is growing. And seriousness is either dose related or a new factor about the immune over reaction.
    I don't think there's much evidence that a huge fraction of people are asymptomatic, as far as I've seen it's about half. For any significant herd immunity without catastrophic failure to combat the disease, it would need to be more like 90% asymptomatic, at least. Maybe it is that high, that would be great for many reasons, but is there any data that supports it's that high?
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Apr-08 at 04:57 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    There have been a few of these now. I posted a link to another such analysis earlier in the thread. We know that the lung changes of smoking make one more likely to be infected by a respiratory virus, so the fact that smokers are underrepresented among hospital admissions suggests that there must be a big undetected bunch who get mild disease. So ACE-2 upregulation with smoking may be protective against the ACE-2 downregulation caused by severe COVID-19.
    Yeah, that's certainly a surprising twist. I wouldn't want to take up smoking for a year, but I'm not on the healthcare front lines, so for them it's a real option. One really has to wonder if, in cities that are not yet hard hit, it would make sense to combine laboratory-controlled small exposures to the virus in, perhaps, eyedrops, with handing out packs of cigarettes, to all frontline healthcare workers well in advance of the inevitable rolling outbreaks.
    Last edited by Ken G; 2020-Apr-08 at 04:55 PM.

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