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Thread: Disease and pandemics thread (because it's science)

  1. #271
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    I had hoped we were done, but I guess an intervention is required.

    Let's all drop the discussion about the linguistics of centre (center) and epicentre
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  2. #272
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    Chinese health official reports coronavirus has mutated to be ever more contagious to humans.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...ows/ar-BBZEa3x
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  3. #273
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    CNN: 564 dead, 28,018 infected.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  4. #274
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    I redid the calculations using the correct method, so the increase / the previous day's number of deaths. Here are the percentages I got (the numbers are WHO report numbers):

    8 32.0%
    9 30.1%
    10 28.8%
    11 25.2%
    12 21.6%
    13 17.3%
    14 18.7%
    15 17.7%
    16 15.5%
    17 14.8%
    As above, so below

  5. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I redid the calculations using the correct method, so the increase / the previous day's number of deaths. Here are the percentages I got (the numbers are WHO report numbers):

    8 32.0%
    9 30.1%
    10 28.8%
    11 25.2%
    12 21.6%
    13 17.3%
    14 18.7%
    15 17.7%
    16 15.5%
    17 14.8%
    good news.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by grant hutchison View Post
    Does anyone else find the idea that Tencent might be party to the "real" figures, if the real figures were being suppressed by the Chinese government, deeply improbable?
    Yes, I also find it absurd.

    Why would it happen? I can think of a few possibilities.

    One is that the government gave them the "real" figures, but then waited until they published them and suddenly decided to tell them not to. For what reason?

    One is that they had the real figures, but didn't intend to publish them, but still made a test page, and then published that test page. Kind of weird.

    One is that it was just a hoax, with someone risking their job for some reason.

    And then another is that they made a test page with extra digits to make sure that it would still fit on the screen if the numbers spiraled, and then inadvertently published that page.

    To me it seems fairly obvious which is the more likely.
    As above, so below

  7. #277
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    Expert opinions on true death rate:
    Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate



    In Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease, one person has died for every 23 infections reported. That number drops to one on 50 nationally, and outside mainland China, one death has been recorded per 114 confirmed cases.
    Experts say the discrepancy is mainly due to under-reporting of milder virus cases in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei province that are grappling with shortages in testing equipment and beds.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH

  8. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    Expert opinions on true death rate:


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH
    Good news. Thanks.
    The moment an instant lasted forever, we were destined for the leading edge of eternity.

  9. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    Expert opinions on true death rate:


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH
    The deaths are tracking the recorded cases number reasonably closely.

    Both are exponential increases but the exponent has decreased to 1.15. Yesterday it was 1.15 for both cases and deaths.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  10. #280
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    Matador Security Coronavirus Update February 6 2020

    • Confirmed infections and fatalities continue to increase. Thus far the virus has reportedly infected 28,085 people in China with 563 fatalities. Outside of China 249 cases have been reported in 27 countries with 2 fatalities. Updated figures can be found on Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus tracking map.

    • Hong Kong authorities issued new regulation requiring all travelers who have visited Mainland China to be quarantined for 14 days. This includes returning Hong Kong residents. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/w...#link-2cfc33c6. Currently the only direct routes to mainland China remaining open in Hong Kong are the Hong Kong International Airport, the Shenzhen Bay joint checkpoint and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge. From midnight on February 4 ferry services between Hong Kong and Macau have been suspended indefinitely, although services between Macau Ferry Terminal and Hong Kong International Airport remain unaffected for now.

    • Australia and the Philippines have initiated enhanced controls and screening measures for all vessels arriving from China within 14 days of departure. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virus...053218646.html

    • Spam emails discussing the coronavirus are infecting smartphones and computers with malicious software. Researches at IBM and Kaspersky discovered emails sent to individuals in Japan. The emails claimed that the coronavirus has spread to Japan and urged the receiver to open an attachment. The attachment contained software which harvested personal data and injected “other inflammatory software.” Source: https://techxplore.com/news/2020-02-...rus-virus.html
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  11. #281
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    Thank you, Jim and everyone, for keeping track of things! I am most concerned about two things. 1. Why do so many men die from the virus? And: 2. What effect is the healthcare strike in Hong Kong having on the disease there?
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  12. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Thank you, Jim and everyone, for keeping track of things! I am most concerned about two things. 1. Why do so many men die from the virus? And: 2. What effect is the healthcare strike in Hong Kong having on the disease there?
    I am not sure the initial gender imbalance has been maintained? However, Asian men have more of the receptor needed for infection than Asian women.

    I think the strike is over now they have stopped flights from the mainland.

  13. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    I am not sure the initial gender imbalance has been maintained? However, Asian men have more of the receptor needed for infection than Asian women.
    Is there a source for this?
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  14. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1call View Post
    Expert opinions on true death rate:


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZZ1AH
    BUT if you are trying to compare it to other outbreaks it is the REPORTED cases that you need !

    I mean, there would've been unreported SARS cases too. But it is the reported cases that are used to calculate the fatality rate and the infection rate.

  15. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    I think the strike is over now they have stopped flights from the mainland.
    CNN reports the strike of 7,000 health workers is still on in Hong Kong. This cannot be good.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    CNN: Dr. LI Wenliang of Wuhan, who alerted the Chinese gov't and public to a 'SARS-like disease' in Dec 2019, has died after contracting the coronavirus from a patient in Jan 2020. For warning of the novel coronavirus, he was punished by Chinese authorities. He was apparently the first person to identify the coronavirus as a new illness. He was 34. Thank you, Dr. LI.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-06 at 04:04 PM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  17. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    Why do so many men die from the virus?
    It's common to pneumonia generally - males have a higher case fatality rate than age-matched females, both for primary bacterial and viral pneumonias. It's probably because males of a given age have more cardiovascular disease than females of the same age, and so tolerate hypoxia less well.

    Grant Hutchison

  18. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN: Dr. LI Wenliang of Wuhan, who alerted the Chinese gov't and public to a 'SARS-like disease' in Dec 2019, has died after contracting the coronavirus from a patient in Jan 2020. For warning of the novel coronavirus, he was punished by Chinese authorities. He was apparently the first person to identify the coronavirus as a new illness. He was 34. Thank you, Dr. LI.
    Do you still believe it has a mortality rate of 1% ?

  19. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Do you still believe it has a mortality rate of 1% ?
    Don't know yet. Just passing along what I read.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  20. #290
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    Expanding on Jens data...

    Wuhan Coronavirus rates.jpg

    The recent equal rates makes sense, though you'd think some time lag would exist, perhaps.

    And the current CFR
    Wuhan Coronavirus CFR.jpg

    [Data from worldometer site]
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by George; 2020-Feb-06 at 06:57 PM.
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  21. #291
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    CNN: 618 dead, 22,112 infected. CORRECTION: These figures apply only to Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-07 at 12:34 AM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

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    The New York Times announced about 15 minutes ago that Wuhan authorities are allegedly rounding up those infected with the coronavirus and taking them to mass quarantine camps. Say WHAT?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...rus-china.html

    Sufferers are being sought in house-to-house searches by authorities and sent to the camps from there.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...uarantine.html
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-07 at 12:55 AM.
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  23. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    CNN: 618 dead, 22,112 infected. CORRECTION: These figures apply only to Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
    New news on this topic:

    8:16 am: China says death toll rises to 636, as total cases cross 31,000. China says there were an additional 73 deaths and 3,143 new cases of the coronavirus in China as of the end of Feb. 6, the National Health Commission said in its daily update on Friday. This brings the total number of deaths in China to 636 and the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 31,161, the government said. Most of those who died on Thursday were from Hubei — the epicenter of the outbreak.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/ma...000/ar-BBZJSnX
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  24. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by kzb View Post
    Do you still believe it has a mortality rate of 1% ?
    I guess that by "you" you are asking all of us, not just Roger E. Moore. The answer for me at least is that I don't "believe" it has a mortality rate of 1%. Honestly I don't know what it is (I don't think anybody really does) and am trying to figure out what it is based on the data we have. I agree that it's worrying that Dr. Li died of it, and am very willing to consider the possibility that the death rate is higher than 1% or 2%. It does seem odd that the death rate seems to be quite high in Hubei province compared to other places, and it seems possible that it's because of a lag in reporting. But it seems odd that the number of people who recovered compared to those who died is higher in Hubei than other places, because there shouldn't be a lag between recoveries and deaths... It almost seems like the medical care is falling apart in Hubei, perhaps because of the quarantine, and people are not being treated properly.
    As above, so below

  25. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    It almost seems like the medical care is falling apart in Hubei, perhaps because of the quarantine, and people are not being treated properly.
    Two hours ago, CNN said "The health authority [in China] reported that 15,804 patients remain hospitalized, of which 841 are in critical condition." If the majority of these are in Hubei/Wuhan, then the hospitals must be overstretched badly, explaining the rounding up of people going on now. I would guess they are being taken to the two new hospitals that were built in a week each. This makes me think the authorities are panicking. A lot of people in Wuhan were turned away early on for treatment, probably spreading the disease even more.
    Last edited by Roger E. Moore; 2020-Feb-07 at 02:07 AM. Reason: error
    Do good work. —Virgil Ivan "Gus" Grissom

  26. #296
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    Well cheer up, at least there is one thing older-men have going/growing for them:

    Certainly! It’s a filter for dust, pollen, spores, viruses and bacteria. Particles stick to the wet surface of your nose hairs, which prevents them from reaching your lungs and causing infection.
    https://www.sciencefocus.com/the-hum...-function/amp/


  27. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I agree that it's worrying that Dr. Li died of it ...
    Front-line medical staff are always at high risk of death in a new outbreak like this, because they spend a lot of time in the droplet-spray zone of infected patients. Not only do they inhale the virus, but various secondary bacteria. "Hospital acquired" pneumonias are particularly dangerous (and a good reason to stay away from hospital if you have a mild viral pneumonia).

    Grant Hutchison

  28. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jens View Post
    I guess that by "you" you are asking all of us, not just Roger E. Moore. The answer for me at least is that I don't "believe" it has a mortality rate of 1%. Honestly I don't know what it is (I don't think anybody really does) and am trying to figure out what it is based on the data we have. I agree that it's worrying that Dr. Li died of it, and am very willing to consider the possibility that the death rate is higher than 1% or 2%. It does seem odd that the death rate seems to be quite high in Hubei province compared to other places, and it seems possible that it's because of a lag in reporting. But it seems odd that the number of people who recovered compared to those who died is higher in Hubei than other places, because there shouldn't be a lag between recoveries and deaths... It almost seems like the medical care is falling apart in Hubei, perhaps because of the quarantine, and people are not being treated properly.
    I think there is likely be a long lag between death and recovery (if you can say such a thing !).

    What's the definition of "recovered"?
    If it means not testing positive for the virus, this coronavirus remains infectious AFTER symptoms have more or less disappeared. I've never heard of that with other diseases but is apparently true for this one. So you must test positive even after you have apparently "recovered".

    Yes I am just trying to figure out what the death rate might be from available evidence. Have you considered that people in Hubei have been infected for longer than other places, and that is why a greater proportion are dead? I am not saying stretched medical care is not a factor, it probably is, but don't neglect the time since infection.

  29. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger E. Moore View Post
    The New York Times announced about 15 minutes ago that Wuhan authorities are allegedly rounding up those infected with the coronavirus and taking them to mass quarantine camps. Say WHAT?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...rus-china.html

    Sufferers are being sought in house-to-house searches by authorities and sent to the camps from there.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...uarantine.html
    The growth factor has gone below 1.
    However, some say the rate of diagnoses is always about 3000/day, which suggests the number is being limited by the capacity to make diagnoses.

    400 million people are in lockdown, not allowed out their flats except for essential supplies. They wouldn't be doing that for a flu epidemic.

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    Another thing: there are zero reported cases for the whole continent of Africa. That is suspicious.

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